Saturday Jan 5 Hoops

[Toledo Prophet]

YTD: 41-33-1

A full saturday of college hoops, two NFL playoff games and an even a big NBA game with the Pistons and Celtics....another great Saturday of sports!! Lets all win some cash today!! Getting started with an early play:

South Florida +9 over Syracuse. Conventional wisdom says that the Bulls would typically get rolled going up the Carrier Dome. But, this is a pretty solid Bulls squad thats covered 8 out of their nine 9 contests. Sure, this will be the toughest test in that mix, but I think they will be more than competitive and hang with the "mighty" Orange through the final buzzer. Syracuse comes into this game with a high powered offense that ranks in the top-10 nationally in points scored and field goal percentage. However, the Bulls have a pretty solid offense that ranks in the top 25-percent of all NCAA teams in those same categories. The big difference is defense, however, and the Orange just dont have a defensive identity just yet. They rank 287th in points allowed and 252th in three point % defense. The Bulls limit foes to 65.6 points per game and just 40.7% on field goals, which actually puts them in the nations top 25-percent. Again, this will be huge test for the Bulls, but I think they'll have just enough offense and defense to hang around. The Bulls have a nice group of four to five players who are weapons from behind the arc, and as a team they hit 46% on their treys, so they can take advantage of the Orange's soft perimeter defense. Syracuse is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite this year and 22-34-1 ATS as a home favorite the last three plus seasons. I feel Syracuse will win this game, but USF will be there in the end, and I would expect the Orange's sub par free throw shooting (they hit less than 65%) will be a factor down the stretch that helps the underdog cash the winning ticket.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Well, that Bulls play looks like toast now.....Orange ended first half on an 11-4 run and are totally outclassing USF here in the 2nd Half.....maybe Syracuse will start getting sloppy and we can nab this one in the end....doesnt look good now. Anyway, onward:

Oregon +7.5 over Arizona.....Ducks have not played well on the road this season, but Arizona has been a slow starter all season and I think that comes into play here against the athletic Ducks. The Wildcats have not been a good favorite of late, logging a 6-15-1 ATS mark, nor have they been moneymakers at the McHale Center, going 5-13 ATS. The underdog has covered five in a row in this series and Oregon has grabbed the money in three of the last four in Tucson, including the last two in games that were both decided by less than 4 points.

Niagara -1 over Manhatten. The Jaspers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home. Niagara, who is 9-2 ATS this season, will have too much offense this afternoon for Manhatten to keep up with.

Edited this post as it turn out I was able to get Niagara at -1!!

GLTA!!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Lost the early play with the Bulls....Niagara looks good right now....hoping Oregon can hold on, so far they've been able to answer every Cats run this half, but there is a lot of time to go.

Adding a play here for the 4:00 tips:

James Madison -1 over Hofstra.....despite being a bottom feeder in recent years, this season looks like a resurgent one for JMU. They carry a 9-3 record this year and are 8-2 ATS in their lined games. Neither team carries great defensive numbers, but JMU actually gets out and defends the three-ball pretty decently compared to the rest of their defensive effort. I feel that is the difference here as JMU has a much more powerful offense than Hofstra. Hofstra will have trouble keeping up. Much like the earlier game w/ Niagara and Manhatten, think the upstart road team will have a bit too much offense to handle.

In addition, I really wanted to take Umass catching 7 against Vandy. Been impressed with Umass, but the more I thought about this game, the more I was drawn back to earlier in the week. I wanted to play dogs Providence and Virginia earlier in the week thinking they had enough offense to hang with heavy favorites Marquette and Xavier respectively. I laid off, whch was lucky becasue both teams got their doors blown off. So, having side stepped those traps and I am doing the same here today. Think it will be a fun game to watch though.

Also, that Loiusville-UK game.....will the world implode if one of these teams covers.....two great fade teams thus far this year playing in a huge rivalry game.....laying off, although the Cards ought to cruise, imo, but do not trust either squad with my money.....will be tuning in, though, just to listen to both fan bases try and "boo" each other! :0corn

 

[Toledo Prophet]

2-1 so far w/ one pending.

Have won thats starting a 6:00,

Cincy +4 over St Johns.....I think its about time we consider the Bearcat bandwagon. They have covered six in a row, all as underdogs, against the following competition: Illinois St, Xavier, Memphis, NC State, Miami Ohio and Louisville.....the hard schedule appears to be paying off for Cincy who are clearly playing better now than they were back in November. They beat Miami and Louisville outright. Think they win this one outright as well, but am grabbing the four points as insurance. Neither was expected much from this team but after watching Cincy handle this slate I am beginning to feel they can make the postseason. Before the season, I figured they would be lucky just to make the big east tournament. Stats wise both teams carry about the same numbers and struggle to score. Cincy, though, has faced a much tougher schedule so you have to weigh that when breaking down the numbers. Cincy gets better production from more players as I see it, and I really like how the trio of guard Vaughn, forward Willisonson and center Hrycaniuk have gelled together. The Johnnies look good up front, but I do not like their backcourt. They are 0-3 in lined homes game/MSG this year, 6-15-1 in home/MSG games and 5-13 as a favorite as home/MSG. Those are numbers worth fading today especially with a hot underdog such as Cincy.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thus far not my day.....Cincy reverted back to early season form......that run at the end of the first half was a killer, and they never were able to carve into the lead this whole second half.....maybe that hard slate wore them out?

Anyway, on the an 8:00 tip:

NIU -1 over Indy State.....love this team's defense and because of that, it might end up winning the league this year. They destroyed Bradley on the road this weekend, and I expect a similar road effort here tonight.