nice 3-0 last night, maybe i should skip the writeups every night - makes me look smarter. 49-36-2 overall. see lots of value for today; starting off with five early plays:
geo wash +4: bounced back and forth all morning on this game, late line move finally sucked me in. gwu coach karl hobbs doing a nice job ib his first year exceeding expectations (well, mine anyway). colonials 7-3 su and 3-1 ats at home, winners of their last three and six of last seven. big wildcard factor is gwu hasn't played in last three weeks, but i betting that since team has responded well to coach thus far they will be ready for last game before beginning conference play. 49ers 5-5 and really in a rebuilding year, 1-2-1 ats away and losers of last three road games, though all three tough ones. just don't think colonial layoff justifies making charlotte four point road favorites.
tulane -1: like the green wave to get the straight up win at home. both teams shoot over 50% from the field but tulane has the better d, especially from the arc, holding opponents to 26.8% from behind the line. miss st road wins don't really light me up - the louisianas monroe and lafayette, richmond squared and most credibly georgia state. linton johnson should add more today than he did his first game back. i think tulane is on the rise.
san diego state +28-: this to me is the strongest play of the day and will be my only two unit play for the day games. steve fisher's boys have turned the corner, 7-3 su and 5-1 since the return of star al faux from suspension. i've said all year that, while blue devils are certainly one of the nations best, they will not have the explosive depth that they have used in years past to bury teams. i just don't see fisher letting his guys get torched by thirty.
louisville +13: if there was any sporting event of the day i could be at i would pick this game. pitino's return to rupp has them apoplectic in lexington. i lived three years in louisville and played basketball one year in owensboro - you've just got to be there to get a sense of how ky people take their college hoops; it's life and death. pitino is regarded by the big blue loyalists about the same as the rest of the country regards that american kid who went to fight for the taliban. fact is he has been great for cardinal basketball and really has impressed me with the job he has done this year. if you watched the tenn game you had to be impressed with the cardinal's level of play and the way they went to war with a very talented volunteer frontcourt. all the pressure is on tubby to deliver in this spot - i cannot fathom the depth of despair that a wildcat loss would bring here. if that weren't enough, ky loses two key subs in a week's time including backup point guard blevins and all of the sudden has depth issues. wildcats will have a little bit of a home court edge - 24,000 tickets sold for today's game and ky graciously allotted louisville 142 of them. watch this one today - it will be wild.
eastern ill +2-: you've heard of henry domercant from naperville, illinois, haven't you? this guy is the real deal, averaging over 24 ppg against some decent opponents. e ill 7-5 but the losses have all come on the road vs ill, ok, ohio st, ga tech and hartford. they handled w ill, a beter team than northern, by five on the road. n ill 5-23 last year, 2-6 this year under new coach. value here probably comes from panthers' last game, a 20 point win at struggling drake. n ill has no answer for domercant, i predict he gets about 36 today.
back later with evening plays. gl
geo wash +4: bounced back and forth all morning on this game, late line move finally sucked me in. gwu coach karl hobbs doing a nice job ib his first year exceeding expectations (well, mine anyway). colonials 7-3 su and 3-1 ats at home, winners of their last three and six of last seven. big wildcard factor is gwu hasn't played in last three weeks, but i betting that since team has responded well to coach thus far they will be ready for last game before beginning conference play. 49ers 5-5 and really in a rebuilding year, 1-2-1 ats away and losers of last three road games, though all three tough ones. just don't think colonial layoff justifies making charlotte four point road favorites.
tulane -1: like the green wave to get the straight up win at home. both teams shoot over 50% from the field but tulane has the better d, especially from the arc, holding opponents to 26.8% from behind the line. miss st road wins don't really light me up - the louisianas monroe and lafayette, richmond squared and most credibly georgia state. linton johnson should add more today than he did his first game back. i think tulane is on the rise.
san diego state +28-: this to me is the strongest play of the day and will be my only two unit play for the day games. steve fisher's boys have turned the corner, 7-3 su and 5-1 since the return of star al faux from suspension. i've said all year that, while blue devils are certainly one of the nations best, they will not have the explosive depth that they have used in years past to bury teams. i just don't see fisher letting his guys get torched by thirty.
louisville +13: if there was any sporting event of the day i could be at i would pick this game. pitino's return to rupp has them apoplectic in lexington. i lived three years in louisville and played basketball one year in owensboro - you've just got to be there to get a sense of how ky people take their college hoops; it's life and death. pitino is regarded by the big blue loyalists about the same as the rest of the country regards that american kid who went to fight for the taliban. fact is he has been great for cardinal basketball and really has impressed me with the job he has done this year. if you watched the tenn game you had to be impressed with the cardinal's level of play and the way they went to war with a very talented volunteer frontcourt. all the pressure is on tubby to deliver in this spot - i cannot fathom the depth of despair that a wildcat loss would bring here. if that weren't enough, ky loses two key subs in a week's time including backup point guard blevins and all of the sudden has depth issues. wildcats will have a little bit of a home court edge - 24,000 tickets sold for today's game and ky graciously allotted louisville 142 of them. watch this one today - it will be wild.
eastern ill +2-: you've heard of henry domercant from naperville, illinois, haven't you? this guy is the real deal, averaging over 24 ppg against some decent opponents. e ill 7-5 but the losses have all come on the road vs ill, ok, ohio st, ga tech and hartford. they handled w ill, a beter team than northern, by five on the road. n ill 5-23 last year, 2-6 this year under new coach. value here probably comes from panthers' last game, a 20 point win at struggling drake. n ill has no answer for domercant, i predict he gets about 36 today.
back later with evening plays. gl
