Saturday NCAA Plays

[Tiger]

Last Post: Last Sunday 2-1
Last 16 Days: 21-9
YTD: 33-27

A late start today due to the real job, but capping the rest of the day as we speak...........my first one tips off at 3:00 PM EST




1)Utah (+10)

Utah has won here at San Diego State 3 of the last 4 years, once as a favourite, once as an underdog, and once in a pick'em game. The only loss was by 2 points.

Utah has been playing very well lately, winning and covering 3/4. In their last 5 games, they have held opponents to an average of just 60.6 points.........in their last 4 games, the average against is only 58.0 pts.

And they can shoot............................
OFG% YTD is 46.9%
OFG% last 5 games is 46.0%

O3FG% YTD is 36.5%
O3FG% last 5 games is 41.2%....WOW!

San Diego State is good...............they have won 8 in a row, but are just 2-2 ATS in the last 4, and in their last 5 games, they have really struggled at the defensive end, with a DFG% of 46.0%.


This is just too many points in this stiuation.


Good luck out there today,
Tiger

More to come................................................

 

[Tiger]

2)UCLA(+4)

Simply think they are the better team right now. They have won 5 in a row, are 6-0 in true road games, and are 4-1 ATS in the last 5. This is also the healthiest they have been most of the year.

Their greatest strength in this winning streak has been airtight defence. They have given up an average of just 53.2 pts/gm, with an outstanding DFG% of 39.5%.

Washington did beat USC on Thursday night, but had lost 3 in a row before that. They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 and 6-8 ATS at home this year.

 

[Tiger]

3)Indiana State(+5)

Indiana State is 3-0 ATS the last 3 vs Wichita State and 4-1 ATS the last 5, including an outright home win as a 6 point dog.

They have a total of 7 Jr's and Sr's on their roster so it's not a team that will cash it in when the going gets tough, especially at home.

And this could be a look-ahead game for Wichita State. They could be looking past the Sycamores (10-12, 3-11) as they look forward to a big home game against Creighton (17-5, 11-3) next Tuesday night. I know I would.

A live home dog here.

 

[DeDe]

glty .

 

[Tiger]

Thanks for checking in DeDe.

4) Southern Mississippi (+8)

UTEP is 14-6 YTD, but only 4-4 on the road. So.Miss is 8-15 YTD, but a very respectable 7-6 at home.

UTEP is 2-3 ATS their last 5.
S.Miss is 5-1 ATS their last 6.

UTEP's road #'s and So Miss home #'s are actually very comparable.

OFG%
UTEP road........42.2%
S.Miss home......42.9%

FT%
UTEP road.....65.4%
S.Miss home ...68.8%

DFG%
UTEP road.....41.1%
S.Miss home.....43.0%


Just don't see nearly enough to justify this being an 8 point line. This game goes to the wire.

 

[Tiger]

5)Wyoming (+11.5)

Found a rare combination in capping this game.

Wyoming has better defensive #'s than Air Force.......

DFG% YTD
Wyoming.......40.0%
AF................43.9%

DFG% Home/Road
Wyoming road......41.6%
AF home...........42.2%

DFG% Last 5 games
Wyoming......39.3%
AF...............47.9%

AND they have much better rebounding #'s. Wyoming has outrebounded their opponent in 7/9 including a huge 37-17 advantage over Air Force the last time they played. AF has been OUT-rebounded in 7/9.

When I see those 2 advantages combined with the fact that it's DD dog, it's a always a play for me.

 

[Tiger]

Two Ivy League Games........................


6)Dartmouth(+3)

Ya, Dartmouth doesn't have a very good record at 3-17, but don't lose sight of the fact that Princeton is just 6-12 themselves. And did you notice that out of their 20 games, Dartmouth has played a whopping 12 games on the road and 3 on neutral courts. Princeton has played 10 of their 18 games at home. So maybe this isn't such a bad line after all.

Also,this has the potential to be a look ahead game for Princeton. They have a big one vs Penn on Tuesday night...............maybe they are looking past lowly Dartmouth to that game.

I'll take the home dog here.


7)Harvard (+6)

When the stats are filtered for home/road , the difference between these teams is not that great. Again, a nice home dog.

 

[Tiger]

4-2-1 so far...............last one for the day......

8)Pepperdine(+8.5)

The deadly 1st game back home off a 3 game road trip for Loyola......a trip that included big wins over SF and SD. Pepperdine should be easy after that right?

I think the Wave will give Loyola all they can handle in this spot. They have won here 3 of the last 4 trips. They are 3-1 ATS their last 4 overall and 5-3 ATS their last 8 overall.


The offensive stats have a slight lean to Loyola but the more important defensive stats actually favour Pepperdine.

And although it is still a week away, Loyola could already be looking ahead to their big home court date with Gonzaga next Saturday.

I'll take the generous 8.5 points.

 

[parlayinn]

damn, tough loss tiger...goes to OT and lose by DD's

you didn't post in the beginning and when you finally did, i was thinkin about tailin you, but held off...then you got off to a rough start, and i KNEW you were bound to turn things around, since you consistently do well playin these ncaa dogs. but i didn't play, and 'im watchin you win each day and kickin myself...LOL

keep it up, tiger

 

[Box and one]

Tiger...great job on Utah,Wyoming and So Miss.I watched Utah last week vs BYU and thought +10 is a lot for SD St..I made a small play on Utah but was close to making a bigger play.AF scares me with there offense.Love watching it but I watched the game yest.Wyoming's defense was unreal.What a great coaching job by them taking away many of the backdoors,contesting shots,etc.
And So Miss plus over UTEP.Played that with your post and I think Raymonds..not sure..have to go back and look..
Those were 3 big dogs and you won all 3.Nice job.I wish I came here to convince you about Penn.There to athletic for the Crimson.
Thanks for the 2 winners..good capping..

 

[Tiger]

Thanks for the kudos fellas.

Yep, tough, tough loss with Pepperdine, but could've lost the UCLA game and won it, so probably finished right where I should have.

Box..........you are right about Harvard........never was in the game with Penn, but geez, Dartmouth had every chance to win or at least cover the number against Princeton at the end................oh well, I'll settle for the push there.

4-3 for the day. Let's turn our attention to today's card and uncover some nuggets.