Saturday NCAA

[InsiderEdge]

East Carolina ?8

The Green Wave come in as a very fraudulent 2-0 team. They defeated 1-AA Southern in their first game 37-19 but were out yarded 427-422 and had 1 less first down. They took advantage of 3 Southern turnovers, one resulting in a fumble return for a touchdown. Last week, they defeated Houston 34-13, but again were out yarded 387-288 and had 9 less first downs. Houston also held the ball for nearly 17 minutes longer. Tulane got a 95-yard fumble return for a TD and returned a pooch kick for their final score. In all, the Cougars committed 7 turnovers. In their 2 games, the defense is averaging 402 yards against and one of those games was against a non Division 1 team. They return all 11 starters from last year?s defense, which was near the bottom of almost every category. They will be traveling to East Carolina for the Pirates home opener. East Carolina is off to a 0-2 start, including an embarrassing loss to Duke. The responded well last week against Wake Forest, losing 27-22. They committed 5 turnovers and had a chance to win the game but came up short on a 4th down play with 33 seconds left. Even this early in the season, this is a must win against a bottom tier CUSA team. The offense is still trying to get it going after the departure of QB David Gerrard and improved after the Duke game against a much better Wake defense. New starter Paul Troth threw 4 interceptions but will find the going much easier against the Green Wave who has four defenders that are questionable this week. Coach Logan commented on the interceptions by Troth and said that they weren?t bad throws - he just needs to find better passing lanes.

Will be adding more throughout the day.

 

[loophole]

i've been thinking a lot on this game and, while i haven't decided to make a play yet, i agree with most of your take on these two teams. ecu has shifted their philosophy of late to build a defense based upon speed. ecu is not an upper eschelon 1-a team, so this has necessarily meant that they have turned to swift players that are a little undersized. they just aren't able to recruit size with speed, as most of those guys go to the big name schools.

when the pirates played at duke, the field was a soggy quagmire. it had rained for a couple of weeks in eastern nc and duke has one of the poorest maintained fields in the acc. these conditions pretty much neutralized ecu's speed advantage and allowed a much larger duke offensive line to pretty much push them around. also, as in the wake game you mentioned, ecu committed four crucial turnovers and had no takeaways. i played duke and the under in that game as it pretty much shaped up the way that i guessed it would, although i wouldn't have believed that duke would win that game outright.

logan is a good coach and he will have his guys ready for tulane. he's usually pretty solid in the early season - i believe this year is the first time he has ever had a team start 0-2. i'd be surprised if they started out 0-3. ecu is not as good as they have been in years past but no way are they in the bottom 10 of division 1-a , as espn has them ranked. only thing that concerns me is the remnants of tropical storm hannah are due to slide through here sometime saturday and i'm a little concerned that rain may shrink the scoring in the game, thus bringing the line into play. also, as in the duke game, wet conditions are always going to put the pirate defense at a disadvantage. if the line continues to drop down to a td or less, i'm a pirate player for sure. anywqay, good luck with this play, i certainly think it has merit.

 

[InsiderEdge]

Oklahoma St. +6.5

The Cowboys rebounded well from their tough loss to Louisiana Tech two weeks ago but soundly defeating Northern Iowa last week. The Panthers are a top ten 1-AA team that went to the national semi-finals a year ago. Oklahoma St. piled up 406 yards of offense led by QB Josh Fields, who went 23-33 for 262 yards with 2 TD?s and 1 INT. This was a good test to get the Bulldog game out of their minds, a game in which they led 36-18, but gave up the final 21 points to lose by 3. A veteran team with 18 returning starters, they were able to overcome the tough loss with a big win and that should carry over into this week with some renewed confidence. UCLA comes in after a come from behind win last week vs. Colorado St. In a crazy finish, they scored 23 4th quarter points. The Rams led by 6 going into the 4th quarter, but UCLA scored the first 2 TD?s in the quarter to take an 8-point lead. The Rams got within a 2-point conversion of tying it up, but the errant pitch from Bradlee Van Pelt was returned by the Bruins to give them a 4-point lead. Cory Paus had an average game going 12-23 for 142 yards and an INT and was replaced by Drew Olsen late in the 3rd quarter, leading the Bruins to victory. Paus is still going to start but will be looking over his shoulder at Olsen. The Cowboys do have the extra game under their belt, not sure if it makes a huge difference, but they might be a little more polished as UCLA looked sluggish through their game last week.


San Diego St. +6

The Aztecs showed a lot against Colorado last week even with the loss. They were even in total yards and had four more first downs. They were unable to put any big drives together in the second half where they crossed midfield five times only to come out with nothing each time. The new offense is starting to come together as QB Adam Hall threw for a career high 359 yards but couldn?t find the endzone. This is a big drop in class with the Sun Devils and coach Craft is going to look to get the running game on track. Hall has looked great in the no huddle offense for the 6 quarters they have utilized it, all of which the running game has been non-existent. They are moving the ball; they are just not putting the points on the board. However, of their first three opponents defenses, this is the best opportunity to change that.

Arizona St. blew out Central Florida last week 46-13 but it wasn?t the best effort by looking at the stats. They gained only 269 yards of offense while Central Florida committed 5 turnovers and had 17 penalties, which had a lot to do with their 0-11 3rd down efficiency. The Sun Devils had back-to-back interception returns in the 3rd quarter to break the game open. Sophomore QB Andrew Walter was named the starter, taking over for redshirt freshman Chad Christensen, but hurt a knee in practice and is now the emergency 3rd string QB. Christensen?s psyche cannot be too good right now. This is a very young team to be favored by almost a touchdown on the road.


Notre Dame +3.5

The Irish have yet to score an offensive TD in their first 2 games, but their defense and special teams have made big plays to get them to 2-0. Yes, the offense is due, but that is by no means to back them. This is a whole new west coast system they are learning and after two weeks, they had better be on track, especially against a top ten team in Michigan. Holiday needs a repeat performance from the Maryland game, where he threw for 226 yards on 17-27 passing. The Michigan defense is being proclaimed as being better that the team from 1996, but they haven?t showed quite that yet, giving up 399 and 325 total yards in their first 2 games. In a game that has ball control ? Michigan running and Notre Dame short passing ? written all over it, points are always a premium, especially at home. Add to that, the Irish have a superior kicking game, as Michigan has made only 1 of 6 field goal attempts this year. ND kicker Nick Setta did miss two field goals last week, but made five the previous week in tying a school record.

 

[Wolver98]

Like your Notre Dame write up, the better reason to pass on this game. Good luck this weekend.

 

[InsiderEdge]

Nevada +14

Nevada has had 2 weeks to prepare for the Cougars after losing their opener to Washington St. 31-7. The Wolfpack were very much in the game most of the way and only trailed by 7 at halftime. Nevada held the first down advantage 19-18 and were only out gained by 82 yards. Nevada had the ball at the Cougar 2 yard line with under 7 minutes left down 24-7 but gave up an interception for a TD breaking the game wide open. Nevada nearly doubled the time of possession 39:15-20:45. The defense, which is returning 10 starters from last year, played well against a very good Washington St. offense and held the Cougars to 2 of 11 on 3rd down. RB Chance Kretschmer has returned to practice and is expected to play.

BYU is coming off a 35-32 win over Hawaii and were out yarded by the Warriors 455-394. Timmy Chang had 4 interceptions for Hawaii thus helping BYU take control and hang on for the win. The rushing defense has been giving up 5.1 yards per carry in their first two games and will be facing one of the nations best in Kretschmer. The Cougars take to the road for the first time this year with this being the start of a four game road trip. BYU has Georgia Tech next week, a big game against an upper tier conference and there is always the chance of a look ahead.


Penn St. +5.5

Nebraska comes in 3-0, all home wins against mediocre competition. They have yet to be tested by a higher quality team on the road. Over 109,000 people are expected at Beaver Stadium and what makes this game even more special is that this will only be the 7th night game in 245 games at the stadium. Last year?s season opener against Miami was also a night game but expectations are higher this year for the Lions. Penn St. defeated Central Florida 27-24 in their only game thus far. They had control of the game but let the Golden Knights get two late touchdowns to make it close. They allowed 345 yards passing but they certainly won?t have to worry about that this week. Penn State's defense should provide a more formidable challenge than any of Nebraska's first three opponents, especially against the run. They held the Knights to 65 yards on the ground, an important number since the Lions were 102nd against the run last year. Going against the option, the defense needs to be ready to play smart and hold their positions. Offensively, Zack Mills is healthy and ready to go. He was 13-20 for 190 yards and 2 TD?s against Central Florida. He needs to match this consistency and avoid mistakes. Nebraska has not been overly impressive in their three wins although they looked better against Utah St. last week, however the Aggies were the worst of the three. Special teams have played a big part in their early success. Against Arizona St., Nebraska benefited from 2 blocked punts, a third that was shanked for 19 yards and an interception that was returned for a touchdown, all of which led to 28 points. Against Troy St., special teams once again vaulted the Huskers to a win as Dejaun Groce ran 2 punts back for TD?s. The Trojans had more total yards 347-313 and only 1 less first down. This will be a true test in a very hostile environment and Penn St. can get their program back on the map with a win against a big name program like Nebraska. Nebraska is 1-6 in road games against ranked opponents during Frank Solich's four seasons at head coach.

 

[InsiderEdge]

Arkansas ?13

The Bulls, in only their second year in Division 1, travel to Little Rock, which will be their biggest road test in their young D-1 history. South Florida surprised many last year with a record of 8-3 and are led by a great QB in Marquel Blackwell. This is pretty much a one-dimensional team however and as long as the Razorbacks can provide pressure, the secondary will hold their own, as they are the strength of this defense. The corners are said to be the best and quickest the school has ever had. They gave up 331 yards to Boise St. last week but a good chunk of that came in garbage time. The offensive line of the Bulls consists of four sophomores and one freshman and will get pushed around pretty good against the Arkansas pressure. South Florida defeated Northern Illinois last week 37-6, not because of superior stats but because of the big play. The Huskies actually had 1 more first down and held the ball for 5 more minutes than South Florida. The Bulls had big scores to get the win ? a 95-yard TD pass, a 55-yard punt return and a 27-yard interception return. All-MAC RB Thomas Hammock was out for Northern Illinois, severely hurting their normally tough running game. The Bulls are allowing only .4 ypc on 43 rushes in their 2 games, however that was against 1-AA Florida Atlantic, who only averaged 2.7 ypc in all of 2001 and the Hammock-less Huskies. Arkansas has a good corps of linemen that led the running backs to 217 yards rushing last week. While this is their strength offensively, Coach Nutt talked of plans on opening up this offense that only got 50 yards in last year?s Cotton Bowl. They didn?t need to do much of that last week after building a 34-point lead, but that may change this week to get the receivers more into the game and to get QB Matt Jones more comfortable with the new offense. Also note that Nutt is 11-0 in his five years at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock.