Navy ?2.5
The Midshipmen find themselves in a rare favored role this week. Northwestern comes in at 1-2, with their lone win coming at home last week against Duke 26-21. Duke actually led the game late, but the Wildcats were able to score a TD in the fourth quarter to pull out the win. Northwestern has given up 523, 411 and 438 yards in their first three games, with 890 of those yards being on the ground. The 296 per game average ranks second to last in D-1A. The defense is very young and features nine starters who are freshman or sophomores. They will face a Navy team that is averaging 268 yards per game rushing, good for 7th in the country. Navy is led by junior QB Craig Candeto, who ranks 28th in rushing at over 105 yards per game. He is running the innovative spread offense very well and this offense can move the ball effectively as long as the turnovers are kept to a minimum. Two fumbles led to 14 points against NC State and two blocked punts led to another 14. Northwestern faced an option attack against Air Force, and the one they will face against Navy will have some similarities, but is different for the most part. They run the true triple more than Air Force does, who uses a lot of two back formations and run belly option with the fullback. As long as they can establish the run, which should happen, they can open up some play action for Candeto. They have attempted only 18 passes this year, but are averaging more than 23 yards per completion, so the big play will be there if executed at the correct time. The red zone has been a strong point thus far for Navy. They are 8-8 with 7 touchdowns when getting inside the 20 yard line. Northwestern has allowed opponents to get in the red zone 16 times, allowing 14 scores with 12 of those being touchdowns. The Northwestern offense is young as well, led by a redshirt freshman at quarterback. They have had to replace seven starters from this unit and have struggled through their first three games in getting points on the board. They are ranked 90th in total offense, with only 309 yards per game and are 93rd with the rush. Navy will need to stop this running attack from the Wildcats as they have yielded 182 and 171 yards rushing in their first two games. The Wildcats will be the youngest offensive line that Navy will line up against so far this year, with two juniors, two sophomores and a freshman. Navy will load up the box and try to get pressure on the young QB and make him beat them. The defense has given up points in six of the nine times the opposition has gotten inside the 20 yard line. Northwestern is 6-8 offensively in the red zone with four touchdowns and two field goals. Bottom line is that Navy will run all day, with maybe a few play actions throughout, and they should have no trouble getting through this young defense.
Air Force +9.5
Cal, off a very impressive victory over Michigan St., returns home to take on Air Force. The Falcons come in 2-0 while the Bears are 3-0. Air Force was off last week and has had a couple weeks to digest the new system put in place at Cal by head coach Jeff Tedford. After two games, the Falcons are ranked 25th in the country in total defense at just under 292 yards per game. Although the defense was ranked 105th last year, it?s an experienced defense that returns seven starters from a year ago including a very talented secondary. They moved from a 5-2 defense to a new 4-3, which should take some pressure off of the secondary. Cal is ranked 58th in total offense, but only 86th rushing the ball. QB Kyle Boller has started off great this season, thanks in large part to their defense. The defense has forced 12 turnovers (10 in the first half) in their first three games, setting up scores and a short field for the offense. This has been a big part as to the good early starts Cal has had so far. They have scored 59 points in the first quarter and 91 points in the first half, causing teams to try and play catch up. Air Force had always been very disciplined with the ball; they were ranked 24th last year in turnover margin. The triple option attack that the Falcons use obviously cuts down on interceptions and usually gives them a time of possession advantage. They are ranked 20th in total offense with just under 441 yards per game and 1st in rushing with 369 ypg. Offensive coordinator Chuck Petersen has led the Falcons to 17 30-plus scoring efforts in his 26 games as offensive coordinator. Teams facing Air Force have an advantage if coming off a bye week and Cal didn?t do much if any preparation before this week since they had to tangle with Michigan St. first. It will be interesting to see how Cal reacts if they do not get out to a big lead to start the game; it would be their first such situation. Special teams have always been a factor for Air Force, especially blocking kicks. The Falcons have blocked 76 kicks since 1990 which ranks second nationally to Virginia Tech, who have 80. These obviously cannot be handicapped but there is always the possibility of a score or setting up a score coming this way. For Cal, they have been exceptional in their punt and kick returns but Jemeel Powell suffered a slight knee sprain against Michigan St. and is questionable. He returned a punt 90 yards for a touchdown in that game. The defense also took a hit, as senior starting linebacker John Klotsche, who led the team in tackles last season, may be lost for the season with a knee injury. Also starting free safety Bert Watts suffered a slight knee sprain and is questionable.
Army +26.5
Taking a shot with the Cadets in what should be a good spot. The line opened at 29 and came down immediately. Army comes in off a humiliating loss at Rutgers while the Cardinals are off a tough loss at Colorado St. Turnovers have hurt both teams but more particular Army. They are last in the nation with a ?4 turnover margin average. Louisville ranks tied for 100th at ?1.67. For Army, the first game it was the fumble; the second it was the interception. Rutgers parlayed all four of Army's miscues into touchdowns. In all, seven of Army's nine turnovers have led directly to 37 opponent points. Even though they are turning the ball over, the Cadets are moving the ball effectively, gaining almost 353 yards per game. They are rushing the ball at 5.1 yards per carry. Louisville is certainly having a down year compared to expectations thus far. The young offensive line has been a big disappointment - they are ranked 96th in rushing offense at just under 107 yards per game. They have also let too much pressure get to Dave Ragone, as he has been sacked 10 times this year and been knocked down numerous times. The Cardinal team isn?t playing with much confidence right now as they head into CUSA play. Coach Smith after the loss to the Rams, ''We've just got to find some answers,'' he said. ''We've got to be able to tighten some things up and change up. We have to get better. That's about all you can do. We're not going to cry about it. Well, we will cry. But you've got to move on, and you've got to get better.'' Not the type of statement that puts a scare into many. Army is led by a freshman quarterback and several freshmen and sophomores at key positions, so they are experiencing the normal growing pains. Feeling here is that Louisville is in a tough spot, coming off a tough loss and playing at home next Thursday night against Florida St. They are looking to get out with a win and start focusing on the Seminoles, if they haven?t started that already. At this point, Army doesn?t have much to lose and all of the pressure is squarely on Louisville. If Army can cut down on the turnovers just somewhat, they should be ok to stay within the number.
The Midshipmen find themselves in a rare favored role this week. Northwestern comes in at 1-2, with their lone win coming at home last week against Duke 26-21. Duke actually led the game late, but the Wildcats were able to score a TD in the fourth quarter to pull out the win. Northwestern has given up 523, 411 and 438 yards in their first three games, with 890 of those yards being on the ground. The 296 per game average ranks second to last in D-1A. The defense is very young and features nine starters who are freshman or sophomores. They will face a Navy team that is averaging 268 yards per game rushing, good for 7th in the country. Navy is led by junior QB Craig Candeto, who ranks 28th in rushing at over 105 yards per game. He is running the innovative spread offense very well and this offense can move the ball effectively as long as the turnovers are kept to a minimum. Two fumbles led to 14 points against NC State and two blocked punts led to another 14. Northwestern faced an option attack against Air Force, and the one they will face against Navy will have some similarities, but is different for the most part. They run the true triple more than Air Force does, who uses a lot of two back formations and run belly option with the fullback. As long as they can establish the run, which should happen, they can open up some play action for Candeto. They have attempted only 18 passes this year, but are averaging more than 23 yards per completion, so the big play will be there if executed at the correct time. The red zone has been a strong point thus far for Navy. They are 8-8 with 7 touchdowns when getting inside the 20 yard line. Northwestern has allowed opponents to get in the red zone 16 times, allowing 14 scores with 12 of those being touchdowns. The Northwestern offense is young as well, led by a redshirt freshman at quarterback. They have had to replace seven starters from this unit and have struggled through their first three games in getting points on the board. They are ranked 90th in total offense, with only 309 yards per game and are 93rd with the rush. Navy will need to stop this running attack from the Wildcats as they have yielded 182 and 171 yards rushing in their first two games. The Wildcats will be the youngest offensive line that Navy will line up against so far this year, with two juniors, two sophomores and a freshman. Navy will load up the box and try to get pressure on the young QB and make him beat them. The defense has given up points in six of the nine times the opposition has gotten inside the 20 yard line. Northwestern is 6-8 offensively in the red zone with four touchdowns and two field goals. Bottom line is that Navy will run all day, with maybe a few play actions throughout, and they should have no trouble getting through this young defense.
Air Force +9.5
Cal, off a very impressive victory over Michigan St., returns home to take on Air Force. The Falcons come in 2-0 while the Bears are 3-0. Air Force was off last week and has had a couple weeks to digest the new system put in place at Cal by head coach Jeff Tedford. After two games, the Falcons are ranked 25th in the country in total defense at just under 292 yards per game. Although the defense was ranked 105th last year, it?s an experienced defense that returns seven starters from a year ago including a very talented secondary. They moved from a 5-2 defense to a new 4-3, which should take some pressure off of the secondary. Cal is ranked 58th in total offense, but only 86th rushing the ball. QB Kyle Boller has started off great this season, thanks in large part to their defense. The defense has forced 12 turnovers (10 in the first half) in their first three games, setting up scores and a short field for the offense. This has been a big part as to the good early starts Cal has had so far. They have scored 59 points in the first quarter and 91 points in the first half, causing teams to try and play catch up. Air Force had always been very disciplined with the ball; they were ranked 24th last year in turnover margin. The triple option attack that the Falcons use obviously cuts down on interceptions and usually gives them a time of possession advantage. They are ranked 20th in total offense with just under 441 yards per game and 1st in rushing with 369 ypg. Offensive coordinator Chuck Petersen has led the Falcons to 17 30-plus scoring efforts in his 26 games as offensive coordinator. Teams facing Air Force have an advantage if coming off a bye week and Cal didn?t do much if any preparation before this week since they had to tangle with Michigan St. first. It will be interesting to see how Cal reacts if they do not get out to a big lead to start the game; it would be their first such situation. Special teams have always been a factor for Air Force, especially blocking kicks. The Falcons have blocked 76 kicks since 1990 which ranks second nationally to Virginia Tech, who have 80. These obviously cannot be handicapped but there is always the possibility of a score or setting up a score coming this way. For Cal, they have been exceptional in their punt and kick returns but Jemeel Powell suffered a slight knee sprain against Michigan St. and is questionable. He returned a punt 90 yards for a touchdown in that game. The defense also took a hit, as senior starting linebacker John Klotsche, who led the team in tackles last season, may be lost for the season with a knee injury. Also starting free safety Bert Watts suffered a slight knee sprain and is questionable.
Army +26.5
Taking a shot with the Cadets in what should be a good spot. The line opened at 29 and came down immediately. Army comes in off a humiliating loss at Rutgers while the Cardinals are off a tough loss at Colorado St. Turnovers have hurt both teams but more particular Army. They are last in the nation with a ?4 turnover margin average. Louisville ranks tied for 100th at ?1.67. For Army, the first game it was the fumble; the second it was the interception. Rutgers parlayed all four of Army's miscues into touchdowns. In all, seven of Army's nine turnovers have led directly to 37 opponent points. Even though they are turning the ball over, the Cadets are moving the ball effectively, gaining almost 353 yards per game. They are rushing the ball at 5.1 yards per carry. Louisville is certainly having a down year compared to expectations thus far. The young offensive line has been a big disappointment - they are ranked 96th in rushing offense at just under 107 yards per game. They have also let too much pressure get to Dave Ragone, as he has been sacked 10 times this year and been knocked down numerous times. The Cardinal team isn?t playing with much confidence right now as they head into CUSA play. Coach Smith after the loss to the Rams, ''We've just got to find some answers,'' he said. ''We've got to be able to tighten some things up and change up. We have to get better. That's about all you can do. We're not going to cry about it. Well, we will cry. But you've got to move on, and you've got to get better.'' Not the type of statement that puts a scare into many. Army is led by a freshman quarterback and several freshmen and sophomores at key positions, so they are experiencing the normal growing pains. Feeling here is that Louisville is in a tough spot, coming off a tough loss and playing at home next Thursday night against Florida St. They are looking to get out with a win and start focusing on the Seminoles, if they haven?t started that already. At this point, Army doesn?t have much to lose and all of the pressure is squarely on Louisville. If Army can cut down on the turnovers just somewhat, they should be ok to stay within the number.
