Arkansas St. +16
Middle Tennessee St. comes in ay 0-4 while Arkansas St. sits at 3-3, winners of their last two and three of their last four. The Blue Raiders stacked their schedule with three straight road SEC games to start the season to prepare them for the upcoming year. However, game four turned out to be a nightmare as they lost to SE Missouri St. at home last week 24-14. The defense of Middle Tennessee St. ranks 102nd, giving up nearly 437 ypg. Although the offense of Arkansas St. ranks 93rd, their rushing offense is 49th, gaining almost 165 ypg and 4.1 ypc. The Raider rushing defense is 96th with 185 ypg and 4.7 ypc. The Indians offense has played much better of late, averaging 23 points and 363 yards in their last four games. The Arkansas St. defense had played decently as they are ranked 48th in the country, averaging just under 341 ypg. Middle Tennessee St., perennially an offensive powerhouse but obviously missing the leadership of QB Wes Counts, are ranked 98th in total offense with 325 ypg. Granted, three tough road SEC games don?t help the numbers much but how can they explain 284 yards of offense against SE Missouri St. last week. Part of it was that TB Dwone Hicks was absent with an MCL injury and he will be out this week as well. Hicks leads the team with four touchdowns and led the team in rushing a year ago, gaining 1,168 yards with 20 TD?s and a 6.0 ypc average. The Raiders will most likely be there in the end for the Sun Belt championship, but until they can find themselves both offensively and defensively, they should not be laying close to two touchdowns and a field goal on the road in their first conference game.
Arkansas +11
The Razorbacks suffered their first loss of the season last week to Alabama. They were rolling along after their first two games but hit the wall, but now will need to bounce back quickly, which they should be up for. Arkansas comes in averaging 232 ypg on the ground and 4.8 ypc. The key is to get a better start offensively this week. Last week, they missed a few 3rd and short situations early and weren?t consistent play-by-play causing the offense to not find its rhythm. They were forced to punt on their first four possessions while granting the Tide a 17-0 lead and then couldn?t come back. They will be facing the 12th ranked defense in Tennessee, who is giving up 272 ypg. Establishing the run is top priority against the Vols, who give up only 2.6 ypc. Arkansas only ran the ball 32 times last week, gaining a stellar 5.4 ypc, due to trying to play catch up, but expect them to try and run the option more with QB Matt Jones. They still rank 6th in the country in rushing offense and will try to take advantage of that. On defense, the Razorbacks rank 36th against the run, giving up 114 ypg. The four previous defenses the Vols have faced average 163 ypg on the ground so this will be Tennessee?s biggest test yet. Add to that, they will be without starting RB Cedric Houston, who hurt his thumb in the Rutgers game. A good match up should be Kelly Washington against the quick and athletic Arkansas secondary. Tennessee is averaging 277 ypg through the air while the Razorbacks give up 239 ypg, a lot in which was tallied in mop up time vs. Boise St. and South Florida. The strength of the Arkansas team is their defense and they will be out to prove that this week. They did not start out focused last week and they got behind early and could not fight back. Expect a better effort and for them to come in better prepared.
Kent +14
Kent returns home after losing two tough games on the road the last couple weeks. The Flashes bring in the 4th ranked rushing offense at over 264 ypg and 6.3 ypc. Marshall has not faired well against good rushing teams ? they are ranked 103rd giving up 203 ypg and 4.6 ypc. Kent will exploit this all day long with the explosiveness of QB Joshua Cribbs, who is 6th in the nation in rushing with almost 140 ypg, easily the best number among quarterbacks. The Marshall defense ranks 8th in the nation is passing defense with 141 ypg, however they have been thrown against only 23 times per game, the 8th lowest in the country. Simple fact that offenses don?t have to, they can just run the ball and get the job done. Running the ball eats clock, and more importantly, rests the defense. The defense will want plenty of rest thus keeping the Marshall offense off the field. The passing game of the Thundering Herd can be explosive, which is well documented. They are ranked 1st in passing offense with over 426 ypg but are 13th in passing efficiency. A lot of the yards came in garbage time against Appalachian St. (Leftwich threw a 54-yard TD pass with 9 minutes left up 20 points) and Virginia Tech (down 40-7, Leftwich kept throwing in his quest for 400 yards). It?s still a tough offense to stop, but the running game is mediocre at best, ranked 93rd with 114 ypg and 3.5 ypc. The Kent defense is coming on of late, playing better each game. They held Ben Roethlisberger to 198 yards passing two weeks ago (374 total yards) and held Northern Illinois to 13 points last week (300 total yards). Marshall will also be without their top receiver Josh Davis, who is out with a knee problem. Marshall will have had 16 days to prepare for Kent, but they also had 13 days to prepare for Virginia Tech, who still ran all over them. Certainly not comparing the Flashes with the Hokies, but stopping the run cannot be fixed in two weeks. As long as Kent can control the ball and not turn it over, they will stay within the very generous number.
Missouri +13.5
The Tigers play host to Oklahoma in what should be a very raucous crowd Saturday night. Missouri is coming off a lopsided win over Troy St. last week. They only let the Trojans cross midfield three times and out rushed them 277-69. Oklahoma defeated South Florida last week 31-14, but South Florida had more first downs, 89 more yards and held the ball longer but punted on 12 of their first 15 possessions and committed turnovers on the other three and those three turnovers led to 21 Sooner points. The Sooners were able to stop the Bulls when it counted, forcing the punts, but certainly didn?t impress while only putting up 239 yards of offense themselves. Look ahead to Missouri maybe? No, that comes this week, with Texas on deck for Oklahoma. Missouri will use QB Brad Smith to work on the tough Sooner defense, with his rushing and passing. Smith is averaging 98.5 ypg and 7.6 ypc on the ground himself, while the team is ranked 20th in the country with almost 210 ypg. They will be facing a stingy rush defense of the Sooners, who are yielding only 88 ypg and 2.2 ypc. But they will be facing their toughest rushing QB test as of yet in Smith, but also have to deal with Zack Abron, who averages 82 ypg. Smith can throw the ball as well ? he has completed 55% of his passes, averaged 219 ypg and thrown 4 TD?s and only 1 INT. WR?s Sean Coffey and Darius Outlaw will need to step up their games with the absense of Thomson Omboga. The Sooners are ranked 45th offensively, averaging 395 ypg. They are 62nd in rushing offense with 154 ypg and 4.5 ypc but will face the Tigers defense that allows 126 ypg and only 3.2 ypc. Nate Hybl has played decent since replacing Jason White, but his best game came against UTEP, one of the worst defenses in the country, where he threw for 278 yards. If Missouri can get 14-17 points on the board, they should be able to stay within this number, and the feeling here is that they do.
Middle Tennessee St. comes in ay 0-4 while Arkansas St. sits at 3-3, winners of their last two and three of their last four. The Blue Raiders stacked their schedule with three straight road SEC games to start the season to prepare them for the upcoming year. However, game four turned out to be a nightmare as they lost to SE Missouri St. at home last week 24-14. The defense of Middle Tennessee St. ranks 102nd, giving up nearly 437 ypg. Although the offense of Arkansas St. ranks 93rd, their rushing offense is 49th, gaining almost 165 ypg and 4.1 ypc. The Raider rushing defense is 96th with 185 ypg and 4.7 ypc. The Indians offense has played much better of late, averaging 23 points and 363 yards in their last four games. The Arkansas St. defense had played decently as they are ranked 48th in the country, averaging just under 341 ypg. Middle Tennessee St., perennially an offensive powerhouse but obviously missing the leadership of QB Wes Counts, are ranked 98th in total offense with 325 ypg. Granted, three tough road SEC games don?t help the numbers much but how can they explain 284 yards of offense against SE Missouri St. last week. Part of it was that TB Dwone Hicks was absent with an MCL injury and he will be out this week as well. Hicks leads the team with four touchdowns and led the team in rushing a year ago, gaining 1,168 yards with 20 TD?s and a 6.0 ypc average. The Raiders will most likely be there in the end for the Sun Belt championship, but until they can find themselves both offensively and defensively, they should not be laying close to two touchdowns and a field goal on the road in their first conference game.
Arkansas +11
The Razorbacks suffered their first loss of the season last week to Alabama. They were rolling along after their first two games but hit the wall, but now will need to bounce back quickly, which they should be up for. Arkansas comes in averaging 232 ypg on the ground and 4.8 ypc. The key is to get a better start offensively this week. Last week, they missed a few 3rd and short situations early and weren?t consistent play-by-play causing the offense to not find its rhythm. They were forced to punt on their first four possessions while granting the Tide a 17-0 lead and then couldn?t come back. They will be facing the 12th ranked defense in Tennessee, who is giving up 272 ypg. Establishing the run is top priority against the Vols, who give up only 2.6 ypc. Arkansas only ran the ball 32 times last week, gaining a stellar 5.4 ypc, due to trying to play catch up, but expect them to try and run the option more with QB Matt Jones. They still rank 6th in the country in rushing offense and will try to take advantage of that. On defense, the Razorbacks rank 36th against the run, giving up 114 ypg. The four previous defenses the Vols have faced average 163 ypg on the ground so this will be Tennessee?s biggest test yet. Add to that, they will be without starting RB Cedric Houston, who hurt his thumb in the Rutgers game. A good match up should be Kelly Washington against the quick and athletic Arkansas secondary. Tennessee is averaging 277 ypg through the air while the Razorbacks give up 239 ypg, a lot in which was tallied in mop up time vs. Boise St. and South Florida. The strength of the Arkansas team is their defense and they will be out to prove that this week. They did not start out focused last week and they got behind early and could not fight back. Expect a better effort and for them to come in better prepared.
Kent +14
Kent returns home after losing two tough games on the road the last couple weeks. The Flashes bring in the 4th ranked rushing offense at over 264 ypg and 6.3 ypc. Marshall has not faired well against good rushing teams ? they are ranked 103rd giving up 203 ypg and 4.6 ypc. Kent will exploit this all day long with the explosiveness of QB Joshua Cribbs, who is 6th in the nation in rushing with almost 140 ypg, easily the best number among quarterbacks. The Marshall defense ranks 8th in the nation is passing defense with 141 ypg, however they have been thrown against only 23 times per game, the 8th lowest in the country. Simple fact that offenses don?t have to, they can just run the ball and get the job done. Running the ball eats clock, and more importantly, rests the defense. The defense will want plenty of rest thus keeping the Marshall offense off the field. The passing game of the Thundering Herd can be explosive, which is well documented. They are ranked 1st in passing offense with over 426 ypg but are 13th in passing efficiency. A lot of the yards came in garbage time against Appalachian St. (Leftwich threw a 54-yard TD pass with 9 minutes left up 20 points) and Virginia Tech (down 40-7, Leftwich kept throwing in his quest for 400 yards). It?s still a tough offense to stop, but the running game is mediocre at best, ranked 93rd with 114 ypg and 3.5 ypc. The Kent defense is coming on of late, playing better each game. They held Ben Roethlisberger to 198 yards passing two weeks ago (374 total yards) and held Northern Illinois to 13 points last week (300 total yards). Marshall will also be without their top receiver Josh Davis, who is out with a knee problem. Marshall will have had 16 days to prepare for Kent, but they also had 13 days to prepare for Virginia Tech, who still ran all over them. Certainly not comparing the Flashes with the Hokies, but stopping the run cannot be fixed in two weeks. As long as Kent can control the ball and not turn it over, they will stay within the very generous number.
Missouri +13.5
The Tigers play host to Oklahoma in what should be a very raucous crowd Saturday night. Missouri is coming off a lopsided win over Troy St. last week. They only let the Trojans cross midfield three times and out rushed them 277-69. Oklahoma defeated South Florida last week 31-14, but South Florida had more first downs, 89 more yards and held the ball longer but punted on 12 of their first 15 possessions and committed turnovers on the other three and those three turnovers led to 21 Sooner points. The Sooners were able to stop the Bulls when it counted, forcing the punts, but certainly didn?t impress while only putting up 239 yards of offense themselves. Look ahead to Missouri maybe? No, that comes this week, with Texas on deck for Oklahoma. Missouri will use QB Brad Smith to work on the tough Sooner defense, with his rushing and passing. Smith is averaging 98.5 ypg and 7.6 ypc on the ground himself, while the team is ranked 20th in the country with almost 210 ypg. They will be facing a stingy rush defense of the Sooners, who are yielding only 88 ypg and 2.2 ypc. But they will be facing their toughest rushing QB test as of yet in Smith, but also have to deal with Zack Abron, who averages 82 ypg. Smith can throw the ball as well ? he has completed 55% of his passes, averaged 219 ypg and thrown 4 TD?s and only 1 INT. WR?s Sean Coffey and Darius Outlaw will need to step up their games with the absense of Thomson Omboga. The Sooners are ranked 45th offensively, averaging 395 ypg. They are 62nd in rushing offense with 154 ypg and 4.5 ypc but will face the Tigers defense that allows 126 ypg and only 3.2 ypc. Nate Hybl has played decent since replacing Jason White, but his best game came against UTEP, one of the worst defenses in the country, where he threw for 278 yards. If Missouri can get 14-17 points on the board, they should be able to stay within this number, and the feeling here is that they do.
