Air Force ?4.5
Ranked for the first time since 1999, the Falcons host BYU after destroying Navy last weekend. BYU, held in check in the first half last week against Utah St., scored the only 28 points in the second half to win by one. This is the Cougars first Mountain West game while Air Force sits atop the conference at 2-0. Obviously a big game for both teams, but a win by the Flyboys puts them in pretty good position with only Colorado St. remaining on their schedule being the most difficult conference opponent. Air Force has Notre Dame coming to town next weekend but don?t expect a look ahead here. Air Force will be looking to make up for the 30 point drubbing at the hands of BYU last season. They came into that game at 4-1, but after the loss, they went 2-4 the rest of the way. Air Force is once again leading the nation in rushing, averaging just under 330 ypg and 5.4 ypc. The BYU rush defense is ranked 79th, allowing 165 ypg and 4.6 ypc. The passing defense of the Cougars is ranked 97th, giving up 254 ypg. Although Air Force has only attempted 52 passes this year, they might try to take advantage of the soft pass defense with some play action. BYU should get back CB Jernaro Gilford to help, who is listed as probable, but hasn?t played yet this season. The Air Force defense has been a pleasant surprise thus far. They are ranked 28th is total defense, giving up 311 ypg and only 17.6 ppg, good for 21st in the country. The BYU offense is ranked 10th with 411 ypg, but are only tied for 69th with 5.2 ypp. Last year when the offense was ranked 1st, they averaged 7.1 ypp, showing that the big plays aren?t there this year. Both teams do a good job in turnover differential. Air Force has a +1 and BYU has a +1.2. BYU has forced 16 turnovers this year, but 13 of those have been interceptions, which shouldn?t be the case this week. Bottom line, the Falcons shouldn?t let up this week, even with the Irish coming to town next week. They have plenty of motivation and have plenty of revenge.
Arkansas St. +28
We will be playing against another team still celebrating from a big win last week. Mississippi defeated Florida 17-14 last week in a huge game for the school and for the conference. The Rebels are in the middle of an SEC sandwich, with Alabama next week. A good situation here against a team still on an emotional high with a look ahead the following week. Arkansas St, has been improving each week. We went with them last week against Middle Tennessee St. and they won the game outright. The Indians have now won their last three games and four of their last five after an 0-3 start. The offense has been running the ball well as witnessed last week, gaining 229 yards on 42 carries (5.5 ypc). Overall, the rushing offense ranks 40th, averaging almost 174 ypg. The Rebels defense ranks 21st against the run, giving up only 105 ypg and 3.1 ypc. But how fired up will this defense be? Not too much is our thinking. QB Eli Manning is the guy to stop for the Indians defense. The passing attack averages 257 ypg, good for 32nd in the country. Arkansas St. has a good pass defense to counter, as they are allowing only 179 ypg, which ranks 25th. Because the offense relies on Manning so much, the rushing game of Mississippi suffers, as they are only ranked 86th, averaging 123 ypg and 3.6 ypc. Since giving up 288 yards to Virginia Tech in their opener, Arkansas St. has done a solid jib stopping the run, allowing an average of 138 ypg and 3.4 ypc. The Indians have been running the ball more (they only threw the ball 13 times lat week) and have been doing it effectively. The longer the offense is on the field, the longer the defense can rest and the longer Eli Manning is off the field. With Mississippi not really looking at this game with much fire, starting off with a four-touchdown lead is big as the Indians should be able to keep this one close enough.
Texas A&M ?20
Hate to lay this many on the road, but this is a very good spot for the Aggies. Coming off a very disappointing loss to Texas Tech last week in overtime, they will try to rebound against a Baylor team that won its first conference game in 30 tries. Texas A&M allowed 24 fourth quarter points to Texas Tech and then missed an extra point in overtime, letting the Red Raiders win by a point. With Baylor this week and Kansas next week, the Aggies have two games they need to win before they meet Nebraska on October 26th. The Bears, winners of their first conference game in four years, are still celebrating. Fans stormed the field and the goal posts were torn down ? something this school hasn?t seen in some time, if ever. The Bears have three wins; against 1-AA Samford and two 1-A bottom feeders in Kansas and Tulsa. The Baylor rushing offense is ranked 70th in the country, gaining under 144 ypg and 3.7 ypc. They will face one of the stringent rush defenses in the country. The Aggies are ranked 3rd, giving up only 69 ypg and 2.2 ypc. Baylor will need to throw the ball to make anything happen. They rank 39th in passing offense, averaging 253 ypg but have 9 interceptions to go along with 7 touchdowns. Texas A&M is ranked 75th in yards given up with 227 ypg but only give up 6 ypa, good for 25th overall. Offensively, Texas A&M is starting to open things up as witnessed last week by QB Dustin Long?s 366 yards and 7 touchdown passes. Overall, the Aggies are ranked 68th in offense, with 364 ypg. Very middle of the road numbers, but they have faced two of the tougher defenses in the country - #5 Virginia Tech and #8 Pittsburgh. Baylor is ranked 44th in total defense, allowing 345 ypg, but as stated above, against three pretty bad teams. They are giving up double the amount of points as the Aggies are. Strength of schedule comparisons show Texas A&M with a much more difficult schedule ? 30th vs. 136th and 18th vs. 119th from two different reliable rankings. Turnover margin also greatly favors Texas A&M as they are 11th nationally with a +1.6 ratio and Baylor ranks 113th with a ?2. With Oklahoma and Texas both in the Big 12 South, every game counts for the Aggies from here on out. With Kansas on deck, there will be no look ahead, so expect maximum effort Saturday.
Under 63.5 Cincinnati/Tulane
Based on ppg averages the number for this comes in at 54. Looking into these numbers further, there are additional points to back this number up. Taking a look at the stat ?yards per point? (yppt) can give a better indication of how well teams get points on the board or how well they allow points on defense. With 5 or 6 games in the books for most teams, we have some pretty good numbers to go by. First an overview of how this can affect the totals. The national average for yppt is 13.78, meaning a team scores a point for every 13.78 yards gained or given up. Taking a look at the offense first, the lower the number, the more efficient a team is getting points on the board, meaning when they move the ball, they tend to score. The range for all 117 teams is from 6.65 (San Jose St.) to 38.03 (North Texas). Taking San Jose St. as an example, they average 46.55 yards for every touchdown they score (6.65 x 7 points). This could mean many things. They could be good at takeaways or have good special teams, getting scores that way. They could be starting from a short field a lot of times, due to a good defense or good return teams. Now one would think that because of such a low ratio, the Spartans must be scoring a ton of points. Not necessarily. They are averaging just over 33 ppg, which is only ranked 31st in the country. The top 5 ratios rank in points scored ? 31st, 22nd, 79th, 7th and 4th. Bowling Green, who leads the country in ppg at 50.75, are ranked 19th with a 10.35 yppt, still a very good average. On defense, it?s just the opposite. The higher the number, the better the defense is at not letting teams get points on the board. The range is from 34.38 (Virginia Tech) to 8.71 (Army). For every 7 points Virginia Tech allows, they are giving up 241 yards. Meaning, they are getting turnovers at the correct time, holding teams to field goals instead of touchdowns, stopping teams on downs, etc. Now obviously there wouldn?t be much value in Virginia Tech since they are one of the lowest scoring defensive teams in the country and the number will be set low. The value is finding teams where their ppg and yppt ratios are on opposite ends (or far enough apart) of each other to get value from the total given. Looking at Tulane and Cincinnati on offense, Tulane has an 18.31 yppt average, while Cincinnati is at 14.00. Both teams are higher than the median and tend to take a lot of yards to get points on the board. On defense, Tulane is 14.83, slightly higher than the average and Cincinnati is 13.59, right around the average. Neither team has a tendency for giving up quick scores defensively, nor scoring quickly on offense making the big posted number look appealing to go under.
Ranked for the first time since 1999, the Falcons host BYU after destroying Navy last weekend. BYU, held in check in the first half last week against Utah St., scored the only 28 points in the second half to win by one. This is the Cougars first Mountain West game while Air Force sits atop the conference at 2-0. Obviously a big game for both teams, but a win by the Flyboys puts them in pretty good position with only Colorado St. remaining on their schedule being the most difficult conference opponent. Air Force has Notre Dame coming to town next weekend but don?t expect a look ahead here. Air Force will be looking to make up for the 30 point drubbing at the hands of BYU last season. They came into that game at 4-1, but after the loss, they went 2-4 the rest of the way. Air Force is once again leading the nation in rushing, averaging just under 330 ypg and 5.4 ypc. The BYU rush defense is ranked 79th, allowing 165 ypg and 4.6 ypc. The passing defense of the Cougars is ranked 97th, giving up 254 ypg. Although Air Force has only attempted 52 passes this year, they might try to take advantage of the soft pass defense with some play action. BYU should get back CB Jernaro Gilford to help, who is listed as probable, but hasn?t played yet this season. The Air Force defense has been a pleasant surprise thus far. They are ranked 28th is total defense, giving up 311 ypg and only 17.6 ppg, good for 21st in the country. The BYU offense is ranked 10th with 411 ypg, but are only tied for 69th with 5.2 ypp. Last year when the offense was ranked 1st, they averaged 7.1 ypp, showing that the big plays aren?t there this year. Both teams do a good job in turnover differential. Air Force has a +1 and BYU has a +1.2. BYU has forced 16 turnovers this year, but 13 of those have been interceptions, which shouldn?t be the case this week. Bottom line, the Falcons shouldn?t let up this week, even with the Irish coming to town next week. They have plenty of motivation and have plenty of revenge.
Arkansas St. +28
We will be playing against another team still celebrating from a big win last week. Mississippi defeated Florida 17-14 last week in a huge game for the school and for the conference. The Rebels are in the middle of an SEC sandwich, with Alabama next week. A good situation here against a team still on an emotional high with a look ahead the following week. Arkansas St, has been improving each week. We went with them last week against Middle Tennessee St. and they won the game outright. The Indians have now won their last three games and four of their last five after an 0-3 start. The offense has been running the ball well as witnessed last week, gaining 229 yards on 42 carries (5.5 ypc). Overall, the rushing offense ranks 40th, averaging almost 174 ypg. The Rebels defense ranks 21st against the run, giving up only 105 ypg and 3.1 ypc. But how fired up will this defense be? Not too much is our thinking. QB Eli Manning is the guy to stop for the Indians defense. The passing attack averages 257 ypg, good for 32nd in the country. Arkansas St. has a good pass defense to counter, as they are allowing only 179 ypg, which ranks 25th. Because the offense relies on Manning so much, the rushing game of Mississippi suffers, as they are only ranked 86th, averaging 123 ypg and 3.6 ypc. Since giving up 288 yards to Virginia Tech in their opener, Arkansas St. has done a solid jib stopping the run, allowing an average of 138 ypg and 3.4 ypc. The Indians have been running the ball more (they only threw the ball 13 times lat week) and have been doing it effectively. The longer the offense is on the field, the longer the defense can rest and the longer Eli Manning is off the field. With Mississippi not really looking at this game with much fire, starting off with a four-touchdown lead is big as the Indians should be able to keep this one close enough.
Texas A&M ?20
Hate to lay this many on the road, but this is a very good spot for the Aggies. Coming off a very disappointing loss to Texas Tech last week in overtime, they will try to rebound against a Baylor team that won its first conference game in 30 tries. Texas A&M allowed 24 fourth quarter points to Texas Tech and then missed an extra point in overtime, letting the Red Raiders win by a point. With Baylor this week and Kansas next week, the Aggies have two games they need to win before they meet Nebraska on October 26th. The Bears, winners of their first conference game in four years, are still celebrating. Fans stormed the field and the goal posts were torn down ? something this school hasn?t seen in some time, if ever. The Bears have three wins; against 1-AA Samford and two 1-A bottom feeders in Kansas and Tulsa. The Baylor rushing offense is ranked 70th in the country, gaining under 144 ypg and 3.7 ypc. They will face one of the stringent rush defenses in the country. The Aggies are ranked 3rd, giving up only 69 ypg and 2.2 ypc. Baylor will need to throw the ball to make anything happen. They rank 39th in passing offense, averaging 253 ypg but have 9 interceptions to go along with 7 touchdowns. Texas A&M is ranked 75th in yards given up with 227 ypg but only give up 6 ypa, good for 25th overall. Offensively, Texas A&M is starting to open things up as witnessed last week by QB Dustin Long?s 366 yards and 7 touchdown passes. Overall, the Aggies are ranked 68th in offense, with 364 ypg. Very middle of the road numbers, but they have faced two of the tougher defenses in the country - #5 Virginia Tech and #8 Pittsburgh. Baylor is ranked 44th in total defense, allowing 345 ypg, but as stated above, against three pretty bad teams. They are giving up double the amount of points as the Aggies are. Strength of schedule comparisons show Texas A&M with a much more difficult schedule ? 30th vs. 136th and 18th vs. 119th from two different reliable rankings. Turnover margin also greatly favors Texas A&M as they are 11th nationally with a +1.6 ratio and Baylor ranks 113th with a ?2. With Oklahoma and Texas both in the Big 12 South, every game counts for the Aggies from here on out. With Kansas on deck, there will be no look ahead, so expect maximum effort Saturday.
Under 63.5 Cincinnati/Tulane
Based on ppg averages the number for this comes in at 54. Looking into these numbers further, there are additional points to back this number up. Taking a look at the stat ?yards per point? (yppt) can give a better indication of how well teams get points on the board or how well they allow points on defense. With 5 or 6 games in the books for most teams, we have some pretty good numbers to go by. First an overview of how this can affect the totals. The national average for yppt is 13.78, meaning a team scores a point for every 13.78 yards gained or given up. Taking a look at the offense first, the lower the number, the more efficient a team is getting points on the board, meaning when they move the ball, they tend to score. The range for all 117 teams is from 6.65 (San Jose St.) to 38.03 (North Texas). Taking San Jose St. as an example, they average 46.55 yards for every touchdown they score (6.65 x 7 points). This could mean many things. They could be good at takeaways or have good special teams, getting scores that way. They could be starting from a short field a lot of times, due to a good defense or good return teams. Now one would think that because of such a low ratio, the Spartans must be scoring a ton of points. Not necessarily. They are averaging just over 33 ppg, which is only ranked 31st in the country. The top 5 ratios rank in points scored ? 31st, 22nd, 79th, 7th and 4th. Bowling Green, who leads the country in ppg at 50.75, are ranked 19th with a 10.35 yppt, still a very good average. On defense, it?s just the opposite. The higher the number, the better the defense is at not letting teams get points on the board. The range is from 34.38 (Virginia Tech) to 8.71 (Army). For every 7 points Virginia Tech allows, they are giving up 241 yards. Meaning, they are getting turnovers at the correct time, holding teams to field goals instead of touchdowns, stopping teams on downs, etc. Now obviously there wouldn?t be much value in Virginia Tech since they are one of the lowest scoring defensive teams in the country and the number will be set low. The value is finding teams where their ppg and yppt ratios are on opposite ends (or far enough apart) of each other to get value from the total given. Looking at Tulane and Cincinnati on offense, Tulane has an 18.31 yppt average, while Cincinnati is at 14.00. Both teams are higher than the median and tend to take a lot of yards to get points on the board. On defense, Tulane is 14.83, slightly higher than the average and Cincinnati is 13.59, right around the average. Neither team has a tendency for giving up quick scores defensively, nor scoring quickly on offense making the big posted number look appealing to go under.
