Arkansas St. +8.5
Riding the Indians, 4-4 (2-0 Sun Belt), for the third straight week. A step up in class last week brought them back to earth although they were in the game for the majority of it, at least from a cover standpoint. Arkansas St., down 38-10, recovered a fumble at the Rebel 32 but couldn?t capitalize. Mississippi then intercepted the ball back and drove for the TD and cover. The Indians then threw an interception two plays later that Mississippi converted into another touchdown, blowing any chance of a backdoor cover. North Texas, 1-5 (0-0 Sun Belt), lost their last game to South Florida two weeks ago 24-17. South Florida never trailed and held the Mean Green to 198 yards and 12 first downs. North Texas also committed five turnovers. South Florida gained 432 yards of offense and the score could have been much worse if it wasn?t for their 17 penalties for 137 yards. Arkansas St. will come into this game trying to run against North Texas. They are averaging 169 ypg and 4.2 ypc. The North Texas defense is solid, but it is their passing defense that makes them so tough. They are ranked 64th against the run, allowing 149 ypg and 3.5 ypc. Don?t expect Elliott Jacobs to put the ball through the air much. North Texas ranks dead last in 1-A in total offense, averaging only 235 ypg and also rank dead last in points scored with 11 ppg. Arkansas St. ranks a respectable 54th in total defense, allowing 360 ypg. North Texas has played a more difficult schedule, so the points and yards will be down due to that fact. Nevertheless, a team that averages 11 ppg should not be favored by 8.5 on the road in their first conference game. North Texas was the champs of the Sun Belt a year ago, so Arkansas St. will be out to prove something as well as give a little payback to their 45-0 drubbing from a year ago at North Texas. An interesting trend here also. Bet on home dogs of between 7 ? and 14 points against a team coming off a bye (48-20 70.6%).
Central Michigan +9.5
The Chippewas come in 3-3 (1-1 MAC) and losers of their last three games. Two of those, with the exception of the Boston College game, they were very competitive. Three games ago against Indiana, Central Michigan had a 13-point lead in the 3rd quarter, but a fumble at their own 12-yard line followed by a safety cut the lead to 4 points. A punt and then a missed field goal set up the last two touchdowns for Indiana. Last week against Bowling Green, Central Michigan out gained the Falcons 441-404 but Bowling Green was able to score on a blocked punt to take their first lead and not give it back. They were down by as many as 24 points, but kept fighting to make the game respectable. Northern Illinois comes in at 4-3 (3-0 MAC) and off a very impressive come from behind win against Miami Ohio as the Huskies put up 34 fourth quarter points. Miami had 14 more first downs and 58 more yards. The Redhawks had a 27-7 late 3rd quarter lead but Northern Illinois scored touchdowns on their last five possessions to pull out the win. This sets up a spot for a huge letdown. Central Michigan has a very potent offense, ranked 23rd in the country with 429 ypg and 5.1 ypp. They rely mostly on the run, where they are averaging 210 ypg and 4.3 ypc. They are led by a very solid back in Robbie Mixon, who is 4th in the MAC with 758 yards. He is averaging a very good 4.8 ypc. Northern Illinois will defend with the 91st ranked overall defense and 60th ranked rushing defense, allowing 146 ypg and 3.6 ypc. On offense, the Huskies rely on their running game as well. They are 30th in the country with 193 ypg and 4.4 ypc. They do not have much of a passing attack, where they are ranked 85th with 183 ypg. The Chippewas defend the run fairly well, ranked 50th, allowing 137 ypg. They do have trouble with passing teams, as they are ranked 104th but the Huskies will not take advantage of that because they have a hot RB in Michael Turner and most likely will utilize him as much as possible. He has accumulated 45% of the team?s offensive yards thus far and that is with limited action in their first game against Wake Forest. Basically it comes down to control Turner and you can control the whole offense. Neither team has done a good job with turnovers, so there is no advantage for either side. Look for Central Michigan with the more balanced offense be more productive in this game and look for Northern Illinois to at least start the game slow after their exciting game last week.
Navy +28.5
BC hosts Navy after coming off a home loss to Virginia Tech on October 10th. The Eagles scored a late touchdown to make the game close but they did have plenty of chances in the first half in which they messed up - two personal foul penalties and a fumble in the Hokies endzone turned into a 21-point swing. Navy comes off a tough loss on Saturday to Rice 17-10. The Midshipmen run defense played well to keep the game close, but the loss of QB Craig Candeto hurt the offense. Candeto is probable for the game against BC. Navy averages 254 ypg on the ground, 8th in the country, and 4.8 ypc. The Boston College run defense is allowing 155 ypg and 3.78 ypc. They gave up 334 yards rushing to the Hokies in their last game. To make matters worse, they lost DE Antonio Garay for the season last week. Garay is third on the team in tackles with 34 (24 solo) and led the team in tackles for loss (7) and sacks (3). Also out is DT Doug Goodwin, who was also injured last week. Goodwin is second on the team in sacks with two. Navy doesn?t throw the ball much; they have thrown only 98 passes all year, but will toss in a pass now and again to try and keep the defense off-balance. The Eagles have the 75th rushing offense in the country, averaging 136 ypg and 3.8 ypc. Senior wideout Keith Hemmings is listed as questionable. The rushing defense of Navy is anything but spectacular, giving up 262 ypg. But the last two games have been against Air Force and Rice, who are both basically run oriented teams. They did a good job holding Rice to 219 yards last week. They implemented a new 3-3-5 alignment last week, which will give them an advantage this week since BC will have to prepare for two different looks and have limited knowledge of the new scheme. The BC passing offense is 41st, averaging 240 ypg and 7.4 ypa. The Navy pass defense is ranked 27th, giving up 183 ypg and 9.1 ypa. Teams have mostly gone to the run against Navy so the passing numbers should be low. Neither team is doing a great job with turnover margin; BC is ranked 104th at ?1.2 and Navy is ranked 107th at ?1.3. Boston College?s next three games are all on the road; at Pittsburgh, at Notre Dame and at West Virginia, so expect them to be thinking about that as well as still thinking about their loss to Virginia Tech, a game in which they had their chances.
San Diego St. ?5.5
The Aztecs 1-5 (1-0 MWC) picked up their first win of the year last week 36-17 over Utah. And it couldn?t come at a better time with that game being their first Mountain West conference game. Wyoming comes in at 1-5 (0-1 MWC) with their only win coming against The Citadel two weeks ago. Without that game, the average score in their games is 17-39. San Diego St. has been airing it out this year with their new offense. They are ranked 5th in passing offense, averaging 354 ypg and 7.4 ypa. The Wyoming pass defense will have their hands full trying to contain Tolver and Osgood. Their passing defense is ranked 115th, allowing 308 ypg and 7.9 ypa. Even though the Aztecs do not run the ball often, they might just do that more against the Cowboys, who are 98th against the run, allowing 195 ypg and 4.3 ypc. San Diego St.?s leading rusher is Michael Franklin, who only has 243 yards but is averaging 5.4 ypc. Defensively, the Aztecs will be focusing on QB Casey Bramlet. Bramlet is having an average year thus far, but has thrown for 532 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in his last two games against The Citadel and Colorado St. San Diego St. has had trouble stopping the pass this year as they are ranked 92nd, allowing 248 ypg and 7 ypa. However, the quarterbacks that have beaten them all have higher ratings to Bramlet?s 117.3 (Pinegar 133.1, Ochs 121.3, Walter 151.6, Lindgren 132.8 and Paus 146.5). Only Utah?s Brett Elliott had a worse rating (100.9) and they were able to handle the Utes. Wyoming doesn?t have much of a running game to speak of as they are averaging only 109 ypg and 3.4 ypc, good for 102nd in the country. Their leading rusher is Derek Armah, who has run for 337 yards, but 181 of those came against The Citadel. The San Diego St. run defense is ranked 38th, allowing 129 ypg and only 3.3 ypc. They only gave up 30 yards rushing on 28 carries (1.1 ypc) last week to Utah. Expect San Diego St. to pour it on the defense of Wyoming. The only win for the Cowboys came against 1-AA The Citadel, a game in which they trailed most of the way and had to come back from a 10-point deficit to get the win. A struggle against The Citadel spells trouble.
Riding the Indians, 4-4 (2-0 Sun Belt), for the third straight week. A step up in class last week brought them back to earth although they were in the game for the majority of it, at least from a cover standpoint. Arkansas St., down 38-10, recovered a fumble at the Rebel 32 but couldn?t capitalize. Mississippi then intercepted the ball back and drove for the TD and cover. The Indians then threw an interception two plays later that Mississippi converted into another touchdown, blowing any chance of a backdoor cover. North Texas, 1-5 (0-0 Sun Belt), lost their last game to South Florida two weeks ago 24-17. South Florida never trailed and held the Mean Green to 198 yards and 12 first downs. North Texas also committed five turnovers. South Florida gained 432 yards of offense and the score could have been much worse if it wasn?t for their 17 penalties for 137 yards. Arkansas St. will come into this game trying to run against North Texas. They are averaging 169 ypg and 4.2 ypc. The North Texas defense is solid, but it is their passing defense that makes them so tough. They are ranked 64th against the run, allowing 149 ypg and 3.5 ypc. Don?t expect Elliott Jacobs to put the ball through the air much. North Texas ranks dead last in 1-A in total offense, averaging only 235 ypg and also rank dead last in points scored with 11 ppg. Arkansas St. ranks a respectable 54th in total defense, allowing 360 ypg. North Texas has played a more difficult schedule, so the points and yards will be down due to that fact. Nevertheless, a team that averages 11 ppg should not be favored by 8.5 on the road in their first conference game. North Texas was the champs of the Sun Belt a year ago, so Arkansas St. will be out to prove something as well as give a little payback to their 45-0 drubbing from a year ago at North Texas. An interesting trend here also. Bet on home dogs of between 7 ? and 14 points against a team coming off a bye (48-20 70.6%).
Central Michigan +9.5
The Chippewas come in 3-3 (1-1 MAC) and losers of their last three games. Two of those, with the exception of the Boston College game, they were very competitive. Three games ago against Indiana, Central Michigan had a 13-point lead in the 3rd quarter, but a fumble at their own 12-yard line followed by a safety cut the lead to 4 points. A punt and then a missed field goal set up the last two touchdowns for Indiana. Last week against Bowling Green, Central Michigan out gained the Falcons 441-404 but Bowling Green was able to score on a blocked punt to take their first lead and not give it back. They were down by as many as 24 points, but kept fighting to make the game respectable. Northern Illinois comes in at 4-3 (3-0 MAC) and off a very impressive come from behind win against Miami Ohio as the Huskies put up 34 fourth quarter points. Miami had 14 more first downs and 58 more yards. The Redhawks had a 27-7 late 3rd quarter lead but Northern Illinois scored touchdowns on their last five possessions to pull out the win. This sets up a spot for a huge letdown. Central Michigan has a very potent offense, ranked 23rd in the country with 429 ypg and 5.1 ypp. They rely mostly on the run, where they are averaging 210 ypg and 4.3 ypc. They are led by a very solid back in Robbie Mixon, who is 4th in the MAC with 758 yards. He is averaging a very good 4.8 ypc. Northern Illinois will defend with the 91st ranked overall defense and 60th ranked rushing defense, allowing 146 ypg and 3.6 ypc. On offense, the Huskies rely on their running game as well. They are 30th in the country with 193 ypg and 4.4 ypc. They do not have much of a passing attack, where they are ranked 85th with 183 ypg. The Chippewas defend the run fairly well, ranked 50th, allowing 137 ypg. They do have trouble with passing teams, as they are ranked 104th but the Huskies will not take advantage of that because they have a hot RB in Michael Turner and most likely will utilize him as much as possible. He has accumulated 45% of the team?s offensive yards thus far and that is with limited action in their first game against Wake Forest. Basically it comes down to control Turner and you can control the whole offense. Neither team has done a good job with turnovers, so there is no advantage for either side. Look for Central Michigan with the more balanced offense be more productive in this game and look for Northern Illinois to at least start the game slow after their exciting game last week.
Navy +28.5
BC hosts Navy after coming off a home loss to Virginia Tech on October 10th. The Eagles scored a late touchdown to make the game close but they did have plenty of chances in the first half in which they messed up - two personal foul penalties and a fumble in the Hokies endzone turned into a 21-point swing. Navy comes off a tough loss on Saturday to Rice 17-10. The Midshipmen run defense played well to keep the game close, but the loss of QB Craig Candeto hurt the offense. Candeto is probable for the game against BC. Navy averages 254 ypg on the ground, 8th in the country, and 4.8 ypc. The Boston College run defense is allowing 155 ypg and 3.78 ypc. They gave up 334 yards rushing to the Hokies in their last game. To make matters worse, they lost DE Antonio Garay for the season last week. Garay is third on the team in tackles with 34 (24 solo) and led the team in tackles for loss (7) and sacks (3). Also out is DT Doug Goodwin, who was also injured last week. Goodwin is second on the team in sacks with two. Navy doesn?t throw the ball much; they have thrown only 98 passes all year, but will toss in a pass now and again to try and keep the defense off-balance. The Eagles have the 75th rushing offense in the country, averaging 136 ypg and 3.8 ypc. Senior wideout Keith Hemmings is listed as questionable. The rushing defense of Navy is anything but spectacular, giving up 262 ypg. But the last two games have been against Air Force and Rice, who are both basically run oriented teams. They did a good job holding Rice to 219 yards last week. They implemented a new 3-3-5 alignment last week, which will give them an advantage this week since BC will have to prepare for two different looks and have limited knowledge of the new scheme. The BC passing offense is 41st, averaging 240 ypg and 7.4 ypa. The Navy pass defense is ranked 27th, giving up 183 ypg and 9.1 ypa. Teams have mostly gone to the run against Navy so the passing numbers should be low. Neither team is doing a great job with turnover margin; BC is ranked 104th at ?1.2 and Navy is ranked 107th at ?1.3. Boston College?s next three games are all on the road; at Pittsburgh, at Notre Dame and at West Virginia, so expect them to be thinking about that as well as still thinking about their loss to Virginia Tech, a game in which they had their chances.
San Diego St. ?5.5
The Aztecs 1-5 (1-0 MWC) picked up their first win of the year last week 36-17 over Utah. And it couldn?t come at a better time with that game being their first Mountain West conference game. Wyoming comes in at 1-5 (0-1 MWC) with their only win coming against The Citadel two weeks ago. Without that game, the average score in their games is 17-39. San Diego St. has been airing it out this year with their new offense. They are ranked 5th in passing offense, averaging 354 ypg and 7.4 ypa. The Wyoming pass defense will have their hands full trying to contain Tolver and Osgood. Their passing defense is ranked 115th, allowing 308 ypg and 7.9 ypa. Even though the Aztecs do not run the ball often, they might just do that more against the Cowboys, who are 98th against the run, allowing 195 ypg and 4.3 ypc. San Diego St.?s leading rusher is Michael Franklin, who only has 243 yards but is averaging 5.4 ypc. Defensively, the Aztecs will be focusing on QB Casey Bramlet. Bramlet is having an average year thus far, but has thrown for 532 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in his last two games against The Citadel and Colorado St. San Diego St. has had trouble stopping the pass this year as they are ranked 92nd, allowing 248 ypg and 7 ypa. However, the quarterbacks that have beaten them all have higher ratings to Bramlet?s 117.3 (Pinegar 133.1, Ochs 121.3, Walter 151.6, Lindgren 132.8 and Paus 146.5). Only Utah?s Brett Elliott had a worse rating (100.9) and they were able to handle the Utes. Wyoming doesn?t have much of a running game to speak of as they are averaging only 109 ypg and 3.4 ypc, good for 102nd in the country. Their leading rusher is Derek Armah, who has run for 337 yards, but 181 of those came against The Citadel. The San Diego St. run defense is ranked 38th, allowing 129 ypg and only 3.3 ypc. They only gave up 30 yards rushing on 28 carries (1.1 ypc) last week to Utah. Expect San Diego St. to pour it on the defense of Wyoming. The only win for the Cowboys came against 1-AA The Citadel, a game in which they trailed most of the way and had to come back from a 10-point deficit to get the win. A struggle against The Citadel spells trouble.
