saturday night fights

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
well,here goes....

everybody appears to be fixated on the mayorga-forrest bout saturday night...i`m looking at judah-corley.....

one thing scares me here....judah`s layoff....no excuse for it..i`m breaking with my promise after the harding loss.....layoffs are poison in boxing....but,i don`t care.......it`s been over a year since judah decisioned omar weis..corley fought in january of this year...but only has 2 fights in the last 2 years(much like judah)..and i was shocked that judah came back against such a tough guy...i think weis is absolutely one of the best jr welters in the world...not a banger...but a difficult,awkward guy to fight....

but,back to the point,judah`s whole family lives,eats,sleeps and s-its boxing...his father and his brothers....these guys are about boxing whether judah is fighting or not..

the tszyu mess has stuck in his craw for 2 years.....

corley,imo,is not in the same class....he has wins over ener julio and randall bailey....julio`s decent.....bailey can take you out if he hits you,but,is a lousy technician.....he`s not beating solid,tip top boxers....

judah has heavier hands than corley....my guess is that corley will try and move,move,move.....but,is he a quicker guy than judah?....a better boxer?....i don`t believe it.....

judah is seasoned against solid fighters,not to mention a super amateur background... terron millet when he was still a champ,reggie green,mickey ward,jan piet bergmann,junior witter...the vet daryl tyson..weis...solid opposition....

is judah`s chin shaky?.....maybe....but,getting caught by kostya tszyu doesn`t necessarily mean you have china for whiskers.....and the stoppage was somewhat controversial....

if judah loses here,he can forget ever getting a shot at revenge with tszyu....as a matter of fact,he becomes just another face in the crowd.....

and that publicity punch-out.....could it have intimidated corley?.......i don`t know....

many were calling judah a top 5 pound for pound guy prior to tszyu.....i could argue that tszyu is a top 5 pound for pound guy.....

i think judah`s pedigree,his desire to redeem himself,the opportunity to get a piece of a championship again,and take a huge step back to the top and get much closer to getting tszyu again,not to mention that he is the better guy,are enough to lay the wood.....

will that chin betray him?.....corley only has 16 k.o.`s in 28 wins....many against chumps....will he outbox judah?...i doubt it....but,if judah thinks he`s losing,he has the wherewithal to get you out of there...

i laid the -270 or so....play at your own risk...i just have to go with the better guy with enormous motivation.....

mayorga-forrest.....again,i think forrest wins...i equate the first fight to lennox lewis-haseem rahman 1.......i don`t think forrest gets caught napping again....flush with overconfidence after the 2 mosely wins....he lost his composure and forgot his fight plan....


will i bet forrest......i doubt it....can`t keep laying this heavy wood in these competitive bouts...

maybe a hedge....mayorga by k.o. and forrest by decision....but,i expect mayorga to come out frantic again.....i`m sure forrest is aware of this...but,if forrest weathers the storm of the first 3 rounds,how long can mayorga keep attacking before he tires?....he`s wild...and not a very good technician...after maybe 5,6, or 7 rounds of chasing and expending energy,maybe forrest starts to chop down or cut up mayorga......

a toughie....i really think forrest wins....but,i may put something on mayorga by k.o...i`d be shocked if mayorga wins a decision.....

forrest winning by mid to late round k.o. or decision....

no bet as of right now...still looking...i don`t think lightning strikes twice....maybe with 2 solid all around fighters like forrest and mosely...but,will a wild,cigarette smoking,brawler like mayorga get forrest twice?......will he get sloppy again?...

i doubt it...but,like i said,mayorga by kayo at over 3-1 for a case of beer and chits and giggles...only,i really don`t expect it to happen..

not sure yet on this one...
 

BOXLOCKS

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GW
Thanks for the write up. I was considering
playing both dogs but you're probably right
about Judah. He needs to win this fight bad
and Corely is no Tszyu. I will probably leave
that fight alone.

I also cosidered the hedge play on Forrest by
decision and Mayorga by KO. But like you said
Mayorga could punch himself out if Forrest
manages to hang on. Ricardo has a great chin
but it won't matter if he is exhausted. I'm just
taking a chance on Mayorga by KO!

GL BL
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
bl

bl

from what i`m reading as i catch up from 2 weeks ago,it appears that you have a hot hand...don`t go by me....go with your gut....before i got zapped from the net 2 weeks ago,i had my worst betting week in recent memory...

go with the hot hand....and that`s you...i`m gonna read your thread now....and i may just ride your coattails....stick to your guns...many feel that these are very close fights.....

g.l.
 

BOXLOCKS

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GW
I have been doing very well in every catagory
besides underdogs.

I crunched my YTD numbers and figured out
that playing dogs has cost me some cash!

GL BL
 

badjab

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Oct 26, 2001
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line on Judah-Corley?

line on Judah-Corley?

I haven't seen the line for this fight...apparently it's not listed at my sportsbook...but even with the layoff I would expect Zab to be about a 3-1 favorite.

I agree with you GW -- the Forest-Mayorga rematch seems to fit in the mold of one of these vindication battles (a la Lewis-Rahman II, or Gatti-Ward II). However, I expected Vernon's rematch with Mosley to fall into the same pattern with Shane coming out on top...but that was obviously not the case.

I don't know if I would dare pick a winner in either fight but I do think they will both come out banging. Most likely I'll end up playing the under if it's 8 rounds or less.
 

BOXLOCKS

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badjab
If your book doesn't have a line on the
Judah-Corely fight its time to find a new
book. The average line is Judah -260
Corely +220.
The Mayorga-Forrest under is 8.5 -116 (Pinnacle)
and 9.5 -154 at Olympic.

GW
Since I started posting at M.J.'s I have played
a total of three underdogs and so far not one of
them cashed in. I still think Klitschko +400 was
a solid play but the other two dogs rolled over
and played dead. I still believe in value and live
dogs but sometimes you have to look back and
figure out what has been working for you and
what has been working against you. I have been
kicking ass on over/unders, but I'm losing some
of my hard earned units on underdogs.

I'm going to start focusing more on over/unders,
and try to be a little more selective on the dogs.

GL BL
 
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gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
judah looks bad but gets it done

judah looks bad but gets it done

hit a very nice sized play on judah....lost tiny play on mayorga by k.o....and hit a tiny play on forrest-mayorga over 8.5 at pinnacle....


zab,thanks for the money honey.....but,something was missing tonight.....he looked lackadaisical and disinterested..looking out into the crowd and clowning.......and was way to economical with his punches.....

you`d better get a little intensity in the ring.....tszyu,sharmba mitchell and miguel cotto are gonna be much tougher than corley.....
 

TheShrimp

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Jan 15, 2002
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hey weasel -- nice play on judah. great night for fights. HBO continues to deliver great action. I was really impressed with mayorga's ability to be aggressive late.

when he won that by decision I was thinking to myself "man, I bet some people played the old 'Mayorga by KO Forrest by decision hedge'".

Love to see Mayrga take on some of the class, winner of De La Hoya - Mosley or even VARGAS, for instance. Vargas may be a little too big for him but MAN! That could be like gatti-ward.

[sorry I ain't been around. madjacks' started getting zapped at work (yes, I used to post at work). anyway, I'm going to try to get in here for some fight action and i should be around a little for football.]

take 'er easy.
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
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226
63
"the bunker"
shrimp

shrimp

welcome back.....i thought we`d see you come football season....but i didn`t expect you to disappear during some of these recent big fights.......

whatever.....welcome back.....jump in and give some opinions....g.l.
 
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