Saturday On Ice

Tiger

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1 Afternoon Play:

Washington(+.5,+120)
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Washington matches up very well with New Jersey having gone 5-2 ATS in the last 7 between these teams and has won outright 2 of the last 3 trips into the Meadowlands.

The Capitals have better PP numbers and better PK numbers.

Kolzig has a better save percent than Brodeur.

Washington is 6-2-2 in their last 10, while Jersey is 3-5-2 in their last 10.

In their last 5 games, Washington's PP has hit at an astounding 42.9%. Over those games, the Caps are averaging 4 goals for with a shooting percent of 13.2%...... while over their last 5 games, the Devils are averaging just 1.8 with a shooting percent of 5.1%.

Let's start the day with a 2 unit play on Washington(+.5,+120) in this 1 PM game.

Good luck out there today,
Tiger
 

shats

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Tiger:
Thanks for all your hard work with the leaderboard every day. Glad to see you posting plays again, your 4 unit picks are always a play for me, thanks for the FLA game the other night, hope to see another 4 unit play soon! Good luck today.
 

Tiger

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Thanks for checking in shats. I have the day off from the real job today so let's see what we can put together on tonight's card!
 

Frogy

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Hey tiger, here what i have, no time for a long long post and didn't go in deap.


I've been following Wash for the past 3 weeks and they've been good for me.
I like Wash and the over.

New jersey is having problem when giving 3 goals or more to oppo, in this case they are 1-9
When giving 2 goals or more they are 5-12
When the oppo score 2 goals or less NJD are 10-3

Considering that washington offensive potential as finally emerge in the last weeks, the probabilitites that they score at least 2(5-12 for nj) if not 3(1-9 for nj)is very hight.
In the last 5 games wash av 4 GF.
Over the year Wash is 12-3 when scoring 3 goals or more but 0-6 when scoring 2 goals or less.
The key here is wash off against njd defense.

Njd limited opponents to an average of less than 20 shuts on goals in last 5 games and didn't give more than 25 shuts on goal in the last 10 games.

NJD allowed only one goals per game in last 3 but this happend against teams wich offensive was looking for some goals (montreal, tampa, detroit)

Wash average 35 shut on goal in last 10 wich is way over what NJD had to face in recent meatings. Off is not producing for NJD, only 1.8 goals in last 5 games.
When wash is allowing less than 2 goals per game they are 9-2 ATS.

5 of the last 6 matchup went over.
NJD is 0-3 on day games
 

shats

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Real Job?? Tiger, I thought tracking the forum was your real job! Where are your priorities? Just messing with ya, I hope you can post more often, I am leaning toward the OVER in the NYR/TOR game. Any opinions on this total? Thanks and good luck to everyone today.
 

Sports Junkie

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I follow the Caps very closely as you guys know. I am passing on this one out of principle, but one thing I think might be a huge factor in this is WASH PP is #1 in the league right now and NJ PK is second to last. Another factor that is just a hunch, but it would not surprise me to see Jagr have a big game today. He has been taking a lot of flack from Wilson in the papers about not playing hard on Thursday vs. ATL (though Wilson has not named him specifically). Jagr had only 22 shifts, 19 minutes of ice time an ZERO shots on goal vs. ATL. Unfortunately, WASH has not been very good on the road this year. Good luck guys.
 

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
Like the Frog guy said, I'm liking the OVER in this one as well...

good luck to all.

biggrin.gif
 

Tiger

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Adding these night games for 2 units each:

1)Montreal(-.5,-110) 2 units
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Really a play against Phoenix as they played their hearts out last night in Detroit gaining a 1-1 tie, but in the process will probably have little left in the tank for another road game tonight. As was mentioned in another thread, Burke likely won't start and he has been great this year.....the backup spot has been a real drop-off.

Montreal is 5-4-1 L10, and 8-6-2 at home. Phoenix is 6-3-1 L10, but a poor 3-9-3 on the road. The Canadiens are 7-2-1 ATS in the 10 meetings of these teams. The Coyotes are 3-10-2 ATS on the road and 0-2-1 ATS when playing B/B.

The two power play's are almost the same at 16.5% and 15.7%, but Montreal has a decided edge in penalty killing at 86.5% to 80.8%. When we look at just Montreal PK at home, then it becomes a very good 94.2% and Phoenix PK just on the road, it becomes a very poor 74.4%

This is 3rd game in 4 nights for Phoenix and in their last 4 road games, they have been outscored 14-6.


2)Tampa Bay/Ottawa(under 4.5,+115) 2 units
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The under is 11-3 when Tampa is on the road and the under is 10-3 when Ottawa is at home.

The Lightning have given up just 6 goals in their last 5 games, and have given up 2 goals or less in 8 of their last 10.

Ottawa is coming off a 3 game road trip so should come out a little sluggish which plays into the under as well.


3)Colorado/Columbus(under 5,-125) 2 units
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Don't care for the extra vigerish but I did see it as high as -140, so I jumped at the -125 at Island. Also saw -125 at WSEX.

Sir Patrick should be back in net tonight after backup Aebischer was between the pipes last night and Roy has been brilliant lately.

Columbus is 17-9 unders YTD in all games and 9-4 under at home.

Colorado is 15-10 unders YTD in all games and 9-6 under on the road.

Columbus has scored 6 goals in 5 lifetime games vs the Avs.

The Blue Jackjets have scored 0 goals in their last 2 games, 4 goals in their last 4 games, and 13 goals in their last 7 games.

And they have given up more than 3 goals just once in their last 8 games and that was a 4 goals against game.


4)Atlanta(Pick,+250) 2 units
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I feel we have a very live dog at a great price in this one tonight. I almost made it a 4 unit pick.

Pittsburgh has won their last 2 games, but we catch them here coming off a 4 game road trip, always a good go-against. Actually, the Pens are just 4-4 in their last 8.

Atlanta is not burning up the league this year, but they are a respectable 2-3-1 in their last 6, including a win over Ottawa, a tie with Washington and 1 goal loss to Boston, so they have been playing better the last 2 weeks.

Pittsburgh has scored only 7 goals in their last 4 games, have scored 2 goals or fewer in 6 of their last 9 and have scored 1 goal or less in 5 of their last 9. Their PP is 0-12 the last 4, and 1-20 the last 7.

On defence, Hedberg has been solid in net, but they have given up 26 or more shots against in 8 of the last 10, including two games of 39 shots and one game of 44 shots, never a good sign.

Atlanta has scored 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 10 and should give the Pens all they can handle tonight getting a nice price at +250.

5)Anaheim(+.5,+160) 2 units
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Don't look now, but the Calgary Flames are really struggling and let's play against them at a nice price tonight.

Calgary is 1-5-2 in their last 8, scoring only 14 goals in those 8 games.

Anaheim is just 2-4 in their last 6, but those games were against opponents with a collective record 21 games over 500. Two of the losses were by one goal.

The Mighty Ducks have owned the Flames, going 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 between the rivals and getting +160 just to tie tonight makes this a solid overlay.

The 5 Night Plays Again
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1)Montreal(-.5,-110)
2)TBay/Ott(under 4.5,+115)
3)Avs/Jackets(under 5,-125)
4)Atlanta(Pk,+250)
5)Anaheim(+.5,+160)

Good luck guys,
Tiger
 

Sam

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You deserve a big night for all the work you do! Good Luck Tiger.
 

wigs

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really appreciate the write-ups, great stuff..i see vernon should probably be in net for calgary now, which strengthens the play in my opinion also..good luck
 

TIME TO MAKE $$$

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Hope you go 4-0 tonight Tiger. Good luck and thanks for your efforts on this board.

smile.gif


------------------
SEPT 11, 2001. THE DAY THAT WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

R.I.P. TO ALL VICTIMS
We are in this together
 

Sports Junkie

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I generally pass on Saturdays, but...a couple of small plays I like tonight.

MON ML (-140) .7 to win .5
Going against PHO who had a hard fought OT tie last night in DET. Looking at the stats these two teams look pretty evenly matched, so I think the edge goes to the rested home team. Also hoping Burke is out as Tiger mentioned.

ATL ML (+250) .25 to win .62
After reading Tiger's post I looked at this a little more closely and am taking a small shot at it. I think there is some value in taking ATL the way they have been playing lately, and I don't think PIT really should be a -250 favorite to anyone right now. Not willing to put a whole lot on it, but obviously it is a nice return for a mimimal risk.

Good luck everyone. Told ya these were small plays.
wink.gif
On the year 55-28-4 +13.61 Units.
 
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