Saturday on the College Gridiron

[Tiger]

YTD:4-2 for +3.60 units


Saturday Early Games.......2 units each
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1)Washington at Michigan (under 53)

Michigan returns 8 starters from a very solid defence that gave up an average of just 17.5 pts/gm last year. They allowed a maximum of 26, a key number considering the O/U total here today is 53. On offence, the Spartans return just 5 and have many question marks. QB Navarre needs more consistency and the running game will only be average until they show otherwise. I don't think they'll score a ton today.

Washington returns 8 on offence and 4 on defence. That indicates to me that Michigan should try and control the ball against a questionable Huskie defence and therefore keep the ball away from the very good Huskie offence.

Look for Spartan coach Lloyd Carr, to play it close to the vest.......asking his QB, Navarre, to play within himself and try to control the clock and the game tempo, to keep the Washington offence off the field. Perhaps something like a 24-21 final.



2)Northwestern at Air Force(+1)

Northwestern is big but Air Force is fast, and at this juncture of the season, with so many question marks surrounding all teams, I'll take the team with the speed.

NW lost their final 4 road games last year by an average of 16 points, and they lost their final 6 games overall. They just never seemed to have found any offensive OR defensive rhythm.

Air Force has won 6 of their last 7 home openers and in what could be a sloppy game, I feel there are enough intangibles to go with the home side in a virtual pick situation.



3)Miami,Ohio(+7.5) at North Carolina

I have to admit that this line has me puzzled. Miami returns 13 starters, while UNC returns only 9. Miami was 5-2 ATS on the road last year, while UNC was 2-4 ATS at home last year. Granted, the ACC is a tough conference, but UNC is rated ahead of only Duke.

Miami is 5-1 in openers the last 6 seasons and QB Roethlisburger comes off a solid rookie campaign and has his top 3 WR's (Tillitz, Branch, Larkin)returning.

I also found a big intangible leaning to Miami as I researched this game. I kept reading about how North Carolina felt this was an "easy win" and a "confidence builder" and a "perfect opponent for the home opener". Yikes! I think they are in for a tough, tough game that goes to the gun.



The 3 Early Plays Again
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1)Washington/Michigan under 53
2)Air Force(+1)
3)Miami,Ohio(+7.5)


Back with later games as I play them.

Good luck out there today,
Tiger

 

[twofingers]

NU offensive line avg. 300 lbs with two seniors returning and goes against a AF d-line that has 3 new starters and avg only 250 lbs. They should have their way. If they can adjust to the altitute it should give them the advantage.

 

[Tiger]

Thanks for the reply twofingers.

Yes, as I mentioned, Northwestern is big, no question about it, but I feel there are enough other factors weighing in favour of the home side here to make it a play. Good luck in whatever you decide.

 

[Unicorn]

Great info on Miami O/UNC. UNC big losses were on D, which bodes well for Miami's strenghth.

I'm with you on the under in the Mich/Washington game as well. Big initial game leads to conservative play calling.

Good luck on Air Force. I can't find an edge either way. NW is big but lost the skill people that can take advantage.

 

[Tiger]

Adding
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4)Eastern Michigan(+37) at Michigan State

No, I don't really believe that the Eagles have any shot to win this one, but I do believe that the 37 points is simply too many.

E.Michigan returns just 10 starters but one of their strengths is their offensive line. Also, Troy Edwards should get most of the snaps at QB, and as a senior, he shouldn't be intimdated in this hostile environment. The Eagles know they are not going to win this one, and as such, won't start passing every play when/if they get down by 24 points. I think they will more or less stick to a game plan and use this one as a measuring stick and and to work on very specific areas. That's where a good offensive line comes in.

On the other hand, Michigan State starts the season with 3 consecutive "Powder puffs" at home.......Eastern Michigan, Rice, California...... so there will be no sense of urgency to run up the score here. I think they will use these 3 games as an extended training camp of sorts, to fine tune the offence and defence and give lots of different players ample game time.

Will it be close?.........No.
Will it be within 37 points?........I think so.



5)East Carolina at Duke(+14.5)

As I mentioned in loophole's thread, I feel that this line is simply skewed by Duke's 0-11 record last year. Duke returns 13 starters to 14 for the Pirates, but E.C. lost both their starting QB and tailback.

This line also crosses into one of my key situations. I have had good success taking home teams getting 11-19 points.


6)Maryland(+2.5) at Notre Dame

I'm going to get this one in now, as the line is starting to move towards Maryland in the last hour or so.

Maryland returns a whopping 15 starters from a 10-2 squad. Notre Dame also returns 15 starters, but from a 5-6 squad. Advantage Terrapins.

And I can't overlook all the off field distractions that the Irish had in the off season. It'll be interesting, to say the least, to see how it affects them on the field.

In this situation, in their opener, against a quality opponent, I think Notre Dame is in tough. I'll take Maryland getting a very generous 2.5 points.


Summary
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4)Eastern Michigan(+37)
5)Duke(+14.5)
6)Maryland(+2.5)


Back later with the late night games.

 

[Tiger]

Last 2 for the Day
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7)Wisconsin at UNLV (under 57.5)

Same reasoning as the under play last week in the Wisconsin game against Fresno State.

The Badgers return only 2 defensive starters and will want to keep the ball away from UNLV with a ball control, time consuming offence. Expect star RB Anthony Thomas to see lots of carries today.

UNLV returns just 5 on offence and 4 on defence, so continuity on both sides of the ball will be a question mark.



8)Utah at Utah State(+13)

Utah returns 14 starters and are a solid squad, no question. But, State returns a healthy 12 starters and THIS game is their "Super Bowl".

Yes, State lost All-American RB Emmett White, but senior QB Jose Fuentes returns and he holds handfuls of season and career school records.

Utah State is only 1-4 vs Utah the last 5 years, but 3 of them were within 8 points and State had more turnovers in all 5 games, including 5-1 last year when they lost by just 4 points at Utah. If they can hold onto the ball tonight, this could be a very close game.


This game also crosses the key situation that I mentioned earlier of the home team getting between 11-19 points.


Summary
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7)Wisconsin/UNLV (under 57.5)
8)Utah State(+13)


That's it for me for today,
Good luck all.