Saturday On The College Hardcourt

[Tiger]

Last Post: 2-0 Thursday
YTD: 25-22
Last 7 Days: 13-4

Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------

1)Florida State(+15.5)

I know all about how good Duke is, and that they are playing at home, etc, etc, etc. But FSU is also a pretty good team. They are 13-5 S/U for the year, and are 4-3 overall in their last 7 with the 3 losses being in OT to 13-8 Miami, by 1 to 13-5 North Carolina and by 3 to 16-5 BC.


They are 4-1 ATS their last 5 vs the Blue Devils and 5-2 the last 7. They have a total of 7 Jr's and Sr's on their roster so this is a team that will not be intimidated today.

The raw stats for both teams are actually very close, or in some cases favour the Seminoles. For example......................

O3FG%
FSU on road......42.1%
Duke home.......38.7%

DFG%
FSU road.......39.9%
Duke home....40.1%



Oh, and did you happen to check Duke's schedule? Think they are looking past this one to their Tuesday night matchup with North Carolina? Maybe.


Too many points.........should be a very competetive game.




2) UConn(-3.5)

It's the big TV game of the day, and yes, Indiana is at home and yes, they can shoot (50.0% at home), but the Huskies advantages on the boards (about 10 more per game) and on defence (37.1 DFG%) are HUGE, and will be the difference over 40 minutes.

UConn is 6-0 vs ranked opponents YTD
Indiana is 2-2

UConn is 6-2 ATS on the road
Indiana is 1-6 ATS at home


UConn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5
Indiana is 1-7 ATS in their last 7

UConn has also won their last 4 road games against ranked teams.

It's a relatively low number to lay with a much superior and battle tested team.



Good luck out there today,
Tiger

More to come..............................................

 

[Tiger]

3) Virginia (-3)

Two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions.

Wake Forest just 2-4 S/U on the road.
Virginia 7-2 S/U at home

WF lost their last 4 overall and are 0-4 ATS in those games.
Virginia was on a 7-2 S/U run until road losses to #2 Duke and #18 NC State in the last week. No shame there. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5.

OFG%
WF road..........41.4%
Virg home........45.1%


DFG%
WF road........40.1%
Virg home ......37.8%


Over each teams last 5 games..................Virginia is giving up an average of 63.2 points. Wake Forest is giving up 78.4.


A very low number to lay for the better team, the hotter team, playing at home.

 

[Tiger]

4) Marquette(+12.5)

I see some pretty sharp cappers here on Villanova, but I'm going to continue to ride this Marquette train that I've been on for a week.

They are 10-3 S/U their last 13, with the 3 losses to #9 Pitt by 6 pts, to #11 W.Virginia by 19 and to 15-7 Cinci by 4 pts. They currently are on a 7-2 ATS run. And they can shoot the 3 with anyone, hitting 40.9% in Big East games YTD.....that should keep them in any game.

There also is no statistical difference in the DFG%'s of the two teams.

In Villanova's last 7 wins, only 1 has been by DD. They currently are on a 2-7 ATS run.


Nova is good, very good, but I have to question Double Digits here?

 

[Tiger]

Like a couple of 4:00 EST games:

5) Towson State(+5.5)

Just don't see that much difference between these teams.

Drexel is 12-11, 4-5 on the road and 6-6 in the conference.
Towson is 9-12, 5-4 at home and 5-7 in the conference.

Towson has lost their last 4, and 5 of the last 6, but 5 of their last 7 games have been on the road, so stats and angles are very skewed.
Drexel has lost their last 3, and 6 of their last 9, and 5 of those 9 have been home games. Hmmm.

The one stat that really stood out for me was OFG%...................
Drexel road..............38.1%
T. State home ........46.9%

Towson also showed small advantages in O3FG% and free throws and a small disadvantage in DFG%.


Again, just not a lot to pick between these teams IMO, so I'll gladly take the generous 5.5 points with the home team.



6) LaSalle(+3.5)

A pair of 12-7 teams playing in this one, but Temple is only 4-5 on the road while LaSalle is 6-3 at home.

The Explorers have won their last 2 and are a sparkling 6-1 ATS the last 7 vs the Owls.

When the key stats are filtered for Home/Road, some very significant trends show up................


OFG%
Temple road.............37.2%
LaSalle home.............44.6%


FT's
Temple road..............54.7%......Ouch!!
LaSalle home..............71.6%

DFG%
Temple road...............44.0%
LaSalle home.............41.0%


Looks like a live home dog to me.

 

[Hokie Fan]

Good stuff so far!!!

 

[DeDe]

CONGRATS!! Continued luck

 

[Tiger]

5-1 so far today.

Thanks for the props Hokie Fan and De De..................much appreciated.


7) Rhode Island(+7.5)

Let's face it, these are not the same old Rhode Island and UMass teams. Mass is coming home off a 3 game road trip, never a good sign in the handicapping world.......the fact that they lost all 3 games only accentuates that. They are 9-9 S/U for the year.

Rhode Island (11-8 S/U on the year) have lost their last two games, but one was to 17-1 George Washington. They are a crisp 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall, and have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series.

In fact, the margin of victory in the last 7 in this series has never been above 7 points.

The stats do have a slight lean to UMass, but there are more than enough other parameters for me to take the 7.5 points in this one.

 

[goldenmonkey]

Like a couple of 4:00 EST games:


6) LaSalle(+3.5)

A pair of 12-7 teams playing in this one, but Temple is only 4-5 on the road while LaSalle is 6-3 at home.

The Explorers have won their last 2 and are a sparkling 6-1 ATS the last 7 vs the Owls.

When the key stats are filtered for Home/Road, some very significant trends show up................


OFG%
Temple road.............37.2%
LaSalle home.............44.6%


FT's
Temple road..............54.7%......Ouch!!
LaSalle home..............71.6%

DFG%
Temple road...............44.0%
LaSalle home.............41.0%


Looks like a live home dog to me.

Just some input... While Temple was on the road, it's basically a 5-10 minute drive up broad street. still... it was a 'road' game for temple, and the crowd was decidedly lasalle, and they won SU, congrats, i was on the other side.
hmh hmh

 

[Tiger]

Thanks for the info golden monkey..............it's that type of sharing information and ideas that is supposed to be the cornerstone of Madjacks. Thanks!


8) Brown (+7)

Brown is 6-12 on the year, but a very respectable 4-4 on the road. Princeton is 4-12 on the year, but only 3-6 at home.

Brown is 4-2 ATS the last 6 in this series and are 4-1 ATS the last 5 at Princeton, winning outright twice........as 13.5 and 9.5 point dogs.

The stats are mixed (definite Brown adv on the boards) but they do indicate a low scoring affair, so I'll be glad to take the TD with the dog.

 

[Tiger]

9) New Mexico State(+4)

Nevada is 16-5 year to date, but after a 10-1 start, they are just 6-4 since. They also are only 4-6 ATS on the road.

NMex St is 9-10 year to date, but after a 3-6 start, they also are 6-4 since. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 and 4-2 ATS in their home lined games.

New Mexico State is a dangerous home team, going 6-3 S/U and shooting 46.6% at home and 37.8% from beyond the arc at home.

Another live home underdog.

 

[Tiger]

Last one of the night.............................


10) Portland(+2.5)

St.Marys is 9-10 YTD, but only 2-4 on the road.
Portland is 8-13 YTD, but a fine 6-2 at home.

St.Marys has lost 5/7 and was 2-5 ATS in them.
Portland is coming off a 3 game road trip, where they lost em all, but they did play well, covering the number against 17-3 Gonzaga and 14-6 San Diego.


Looking at the key stats..............free throws, rebounds and defence all pretty much wash each other out, but there is a big advantage for Portland on offence.


OFG%
St.Marys road.............42.9%
Port home................50.1%

O3FG%
St.Marys road.........32.0%
Port home............40.2%

That's enough for me.