10:30 PM CFB [373] Wyoming -7-105
4:00 PM CFB [394] Missouri -7.5 -115
9:00 PM CFB [400] LSU -7.5 -115
3:30 PM CFB [406] Alabama -18.5 -115
8:05 PM MLB [910] Chicago Cubs +121 ( C Kershaw - L / K Hendricks - R )
7:05 PM NHL [2] Washington Capitals -163
7:05 PM NHL [6] Chicago Blackhawks -160
7:05 PM NHL [8] Philadelphia Flyers -138
7:05 PM NHL [11] Minnesota Wild -110
8:05 PM NHL [18] Dallas Stars -205
8:05 PM NHL [20] TOTAL u5.5 -135 (Pittsburgh Penguins vrs Nashville Predators)
10:05 PM NHL [21] Vancouver Canucks +140
1 unit bet pays 1511 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
at Nashville both teams' offense short handed, and Nash off a game with some bad defense they promised to clean up tonight. Only 1 of Pitt's 5 games this season has gone over.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Texas @ KANSAS ST
KANSAS ST +105 over Texas
Charlie Strong versus Bill Snyder. That matchup alone makes the Wildcats worthy of a bet here but it goes even deeper than that. Texas earned a win over a weak Iowa State team last week (27-6) and would probably have an interim coach this week if it hadn't. The Longhorns have been a circus act all season long with nothing but drama and distractions, which makes focusing 100% on football extremely difficult. Charlie Strong has won just 14 of his first 31 games at a place with an all-time winning percentage better than 71% and he has already dismissed or reassigned all of his original assistants halfway through his third season. Strong is under immense pressure to deliver but the local media and fans are calling for his head every single week. Texas is 3-3 straight up but the wins have come over teams with a combined 4-16 record. The schedule now gets much tougher so now would the right time to start fading these ?Horns.
Kansas State lost 38-17 to Oklahoma last week as a 10-point dog. The Wildcats cannot be a 10-point dog at Oklahoma and then a dog at home against Texas. The Wildcats were either grossly overvalued last week or undervalued this week. Pick one. We?ll definitely pick the latter. Teams don?t always play their best when expected to and K-State had difficulty last week. However, the Wildcats found some offensive answers against Texas Tech the week prior and the Big 12's top defense survived a Heisman-caliber first-half onslaught from Patrick Mahomes, shutting the Red Raiders down for most of the second stanza. Bill Snyder will try to coax some production out of his green offense again but at the end of the day, of the four units that will be on the field here, K-State?s defense is by far the best unit that will be out there. K-State outright.
Texas/Kansas State Under 54
The Key: Charlie Strong's defense finally lived up to its potential last week in a 27-6 win over Iowa State. The Longhorns held the Cyclones to just 280 yards of total offense in the win. Now they face another offensively-challenged team in the Kansas State Wildcats this week. The Wildcats have been held to 13 points by Stanford, to 16 by West Virginia and to 17 by Oklahoma. Not to mention, starting QB Jesse Ertz is banged up. But the Wildcats do have a great defense that is only giving up 21.0 points per game this season. Head-to-head history makes me really like this UNDER. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 32, 23 and 52 points, respectively. Those 32 and 23-point efforts came the past two seasons. I look for this game to play out similarly.
Central Florida at UConn
Play: Central Florida -4.5
UConn is not a team I trust to beat comparable foes. They have been outgained in five of their last six games including last week?s 42-27 loss to South Florida (529-378). The score could have been a much worse had it not been for a +4 turnover margin in UConn?s favor.
Central Florida has shown the ability to stop the run and that is the key to this game. The Knights are surrendering just 126.7 yards per game on the ground at a paltry 3.2 yards per rush. UConn?s offense simply doesn?t work if they struggle to run the football because QB Bryant Shirreffs is just not a good enough pocket passer to carry his team to victory through the air. He has completed no more than 56.4% of his passes in UConn?s last three games against Houston, Cincinnati and South Florida and has only hit the 60% completion rate mark once in his last five games. Making things worse for the UConn offense is the impact injury absence of starting left guard Tommy Hopkins who sustained a leg injury in last week?s game and will miss the rest of the season.
On the other side of this matchup, the UCF offense has certainly taken a major step forward since freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over at the position. Milton has 5 TD passes and 2 INTs in his first three starts. UCF has shown the ability to win on the road with a 2-1 SU and ATS mark away from home with their only defeat coming in the Big House in Ann Arbor against Michigan. UCF suffered a tough OT loss at home against Maryland earlier this season and bounced back from that with a win and I expect another positive response from the Knights after a tough loss to Temple last week at home on the final play of the game.
Central Florida vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 48
I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut. The under is 33-16-2 in UCF?s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. That?s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road. Central Florida does not trust their group of QB?s who have 1 TD and 2 INT?s on the road and that?s where Uconn has issues on their defense. If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.
I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game. Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half. Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.
Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals. Central Florida struggles to score points when they can?t run the ball. Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense. Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB. Uconn even kept Houston?s attack in check.
Syracuse at Boston College
Play: Over 52.5
This week the ACC has only four games with six of its teams on a bye week but they are all still meaningful. Syracuse goes to Boston College in what shapes up as a bowl bid elimination game since the team which loses this one realistically has no shot at getting to six wins. The Orange enter off of an improbable 31-17 home upset win over Virginia Tech as +22.5 point underdogs. In that contest, the extreme tempo ran 100 plays from scrimmage resulting in 32 first downs, 10-of-21, 47.6% on third down conversions, and 561 total yards which were all season highs posted against Virginia Tech?s defense. Meanwhile, Boston College had a bye last week after being steamrolled 56-10 by Clemson . Their top-ranked total yards against defense was torched for 503 yards in that contest. The Eagles offense was bas as well averaging just 3.5 yards per play.
This game has one fundamental aspect to it that sticks out and appears to be something we can proactively apply here. As good as their overall defensive numbers are, Boston College appears to be a severely flawed unit against teams that push tempo. Versus Justin Fuentes? Virginia Tech offense, BC allowed 476 yards (223 rushing/253 passing) and against the fast paced Clemson spread the final numbers were 503 yards (229 rushing/274 passing). The other four games were against methodical offenses (Georgia Tech, Massachusetts, Wagner and Buffalo) where the Eagles excelled allowing an average of 8 first downs and 145.5 ypg. Those averages are not really skewed either as Georgia Tech?s 240 yards and 17 points were the highest allowed in those four games. Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey and the offense are executing first year head coach Dino Babers? offense pretty efficiently which is going to be a challenge for BC?s defense.
The other side of this matchup pits Syracuse?s woeful defense against the Eagles offense which ranks 121st nationally at 322 ypg. However, Syracuse allowed Wake Forest?s 117th ranked offense which nets just 333 ypg to gain 330 in heavy rain conditions during Hurricane Matthew. Also, the 103rd ranked Connecticut offense produced a season high 425 yards and 24 points against Syracuse. The week off gives the BC coaching staff and the offense led by quarterback Patrick Towles plenty of time to prepare and work on a game plan knowing that Syracuse forces you to have to score plenty in order to beat them.
Syracuse is rolling offensively leading the ACC in passing with 346.1 ypg behind dual threat Dungey. They have faced two of the nation?s top 12 defenses in #7 Virginia Tech and #11 Louisville and in those games Syracuse averaged 493.5 ypg and 29.5 points. With the difficulties BC has shown against up-tempo spreads, it?s tough to see them stopping the Orange offense from at least equaling those numbers. On the other side, expect Boston College to either move the ball and the scoreboard against this iffy SU defense better than they have on average this season. That or have numerous three-and-outs which wear out their defense allowed Syracuse to go for 40+. Either way, the total is too low here at 52.5.
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Pick: Boston College
Syracuse (3-4 / 1-2 in the ACC) will take on Boston College (3-3 / 0-3 in the ACC) Saturday afternoon at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Syracuse is 6th in the seven-team ACC Atlantic Division and Boston College, naturally, is dead-last. The Orange have won four of the last six meetings plus come off the biggest win of Dino Babers? first season. Syracuse hosted Va Tech last Saturday and as a 23-point underdog, won 31-17. The ?Cuse didn?t just beat the then-No. 19 Hokies, they rolled up 561 yards on an excellent defensive Va Tecgh unit. QB Dungey passed for 311 yards with one TD pass plus added 106 yards and another TD. "The biggest thing about this win is that any time you take over a program you're trying to get everybody to buy in, you're trying to get everybody to work as one," coach Dino Babers said after the game. "...It's always that way until you get that one win that solidifies you, that brings you together, that hardship that brings the family closer together. That's what happened today. We're now family."
Boston College last played October 7th, losing emphatically 56-10 to Clemson. Despite that blowout loss, the Boston College defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (252.2 YPG) and 23.7 PPG, which ranks 43rd. The Eagles had hoped Kentucky transfer QB Patrick Towles would add ?something extra? to this year?s oddense (BC averaged only 17.2 PPG in 2015). However, that hasn?t been the case, as he?s completed just 50.8 percent for 897 yards, although he?s thrown only three INTs (against seven TDs). Still, BC has hardly had a breakout year offensively, averaging 21.2 PPG. The Eagles have been outscored by 105-10 in their last two conference contests, with Towles going a combined 20-of-50 for 171 yards.
Boston College has notably lost 11 consecutive ACC games but as fate would have it, the school?s last league win came back on Nov 29, 2014, a 28-7 triumph at home against Syracuse. This is the Eagles' fourth straight home game and arguably its best chance to end their ACC losing streak. Syracuse is off a HUGE upset win over Va Tech plus BC head coach Steve Addazzio and DC Jim Reid have had two full weeks to prepare the defense for a big effort. The bet is BC!
MISSISSIPPI AT LSU
PLAY: LSU -5.5
Talk about the proverbial line being drawn in the sand! We should find out this Saturday whether it?s a two-week spike or the real deal as LSU plays host to Mississippi in what should be an electric atmosphere at Baton Rouge.
It?s definitely small sample, only two games to be precise. But I don?t think it?s stretching the point to assert that the LSU Tigers have a new lease on life. The Bayou Bengals have looked totally dominant in a pair of blowout wins. No doubt about it, Ole Miss is going to likely be a far tougher test than were either Missouri or Southern Mississippi. But there?s also simply no denying that current LSU squad bears little resemblance to the one Les Miles left behind. Interim coach Ed Orgeron can out himself in great position to get that interim tag rendered obsolete with a win over the very talented Rebels.
Ole Miss is probably the best 3-3 team in college football. The Rebels are not far from being 6-0. They let a big lead get away against Florida State. Mississippi led Alabama at the half before again getting run over after the break, though they did fight back admirably late in that clash. They again held the lead on Saturday at Arkansas before allowing the fairly late today that got the Razorbacks the win.
Head coach Hugh Freeze has his work cut out this week. As good as the Rebels are, they?re pretty much history as far as locking down a major bowl goes with the three losses. That?s a big hurdle for a team that had playoff asprations to try and overcome. Ole Miss is also facing a revved up host that is not only surging, but one that also has a major revenge motive from a pretty lopsided loss last season.
The tough part for me in looking at LSU here is that the overall season to date numbers suggest this line is too high. But that?s where my opinion enters the mix. Maybe it?s folly on my part, but I have basically tossed out those first four games for LSU. Even if I include them, it?s not like those narrow losses to Wisconsin and Auburn are horrible. But I have to believe if those games were to get replayed, we might very well get a different result in the rematches.
Orgeron has revitalized the Tigers. There?s no guarantee the team maintains the form on display since the coaching change took place. But I have to think the home team will be heading into this duel with the more positive mindset, and in terms of talent they sure don?t take a back seat to many. I like LSU here and feel they?ll win by enough to cover the spread in the process.
Oklahoma / Texas Tech Over 84
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Oklahoma Sooners hit the road to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX, on Saturday night. Oklahoma has posted a 13-7 record to the over in their last 20 games following a game against a Big 12 opponent and they have gone an excellent 16-5 to the over in their last 21 Big 12 games. They have also gone a perfect 8-0 to the over in their last eight road games where they were listed as a favorite of 11-15 points and they have gone a lights out 10-1 to the over in their last eleven road games. The Red Raiders have been an over team as well as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games where they were listed as an underdog of 10-21 points and they have gone an excellent 9-3 to the over in their last twelve games where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also gone up and over the total in eleven of their last fourteen home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over the total in each of their last five head-to-head meetings, and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a shootout in Lubbock on Saturday night. G
Ohio State @ PENN ST
#401 PENN ST +20 -109 over Ohio State
Ohio State has looked every bit deserving of the #2 ranking they own this season so far. The Buckeyes have trampled virtually every team they have come across and when they were tested by top-10 ranked Wisconsin, the Buckeyes did not hit the panic switch when they trailed. Instead, they battled back and won the game in overtime. Characterized by their notorious poise and moxie they exude in pressure situations, the Buckeyes once again did what they had to when they were under the gun. Generally, high-profile games of this nature generate a reaction the following week if something significant occurs in the featured match. From the Ohio State-Wisconsin clash, the general consensus is that Ohio State is every bit as a good as their ranking suggests and secondly, Wisconsin may be better than their rating indicates. Now, Ohio State has to travel to a notoriously hostile environment that plays home to a football team that has been battle-tested and snake-bitten in the early part of this season.
Penn State has an affinity for being a menace at Happy Valley especially when they get a game under the lights where they can white out a hated rival. The last time Ohio State came to town, they entered in almost identical fashion, spotting big points to the home hosts who were primed for an upset bid. Penn State took Ohio State to overtime but they led by as much as 17 before the Buckeyes would come roaring back. Sure, Ohio State may have blown the doors off of Penn State at home last year and yes they have won their last five against the Nittany Lions overall but PSU is a far better 4-2 team than the record may or may not suggest. One of Penn State?s losses this year came against #4 Michigan when the Nittany Lions were extremely short-handed, as 14 starters were injured for that game. The only other loss Penn State suffered was a three-point defeat at Pittsburgh where the Nittany Lions were able to rally back and make a game of the contest after Pitt jumped out to a commanding lead.
At home this season, Penn State is undefeated and they have taken down teams like Temple and Maryland along the way. Maryland at one point entered as a team forecasted as a potential culprit ready to pull off a win at Happy Valley. Penn State had other ideas and put the wood to the Terrapins in a blowout victory. The market and analysts alike have little faith in Penn State keeping this one manageable but Ohio State had to battle hard to pick up the W last week and more often than not the match-up that follows often fosters some attrition. The ?White Out? game is one of the greatest spectacles in sports. It is so difficult for an opponent to go into Happy Valley in this annual event and blow out the Lions. Now OSU is being asked to win by nearly three converted TD?s but no matter how you break it down, we will once again side with the massively inflated points here.
Old Dominion @ W. KENTUCKY
Old Dominion has been a cute success story at 4-2, but let?s really break that down. They have wins over Hampton, UTSA, Charlotte, and Massachusetts. Those teams are a combined 9-17 on the season. The three FBS wins are over the #101, #124, and #118 ranked teams according to the S&P+ rankings. When they have faced off versus top 40 S&P+ programs, they have been outscored 80-29. WKU is only #59 in those rankings, but are a bigger test than either Appalachian State or North Carolina State. The Monarchs are getting way too much credit here and absolutely not enough points. Sell high.
WKU is much better than their 4-3 record suggests. They played Alabama much closer than the final score suggests and blew the games versus both Vanderbilt and Louisiana Tech. They could easily be 6-1 and getting votes in the top 25 if a few plays went differently. Western Kentucky hasn't covered a game since the opener so anyone that has backed them over the past six weeks has ripped up their ticket. Now we get to step in and buy low. The Hilltoppers are finding their footing after losing some key players to graduation at the end of last year. WKU QB Mike White ranks seventh nationally with 2,098 passing yards, ninth with a passing efficiency rating of 164.3 and 12th with 16 TD passes. Both receivers Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris have been outstanding with a combined 1500+ yards and 13 touchdowns, higher totals than ODU quarterback David Robertson has for the season. If the ?Toppers are stopped in the passing game (very unlikely) they can always fall back to the run game which features one of the best G5 running backs in senior Anthony Wales. He has been electric since coming back from an early season injury. WKU is playing great football without the wins. They are about to start paying off at the window and now would be the right time to put the hammer down
Arkansas vs. Auburn
Play: Arkansas +10
Arkansas has a reputation in the Brett Bielema era of being a pure smashmouth, run first squad. Part of that is true this year ? the Razorbacks can certainly play some power football in the trenches ? their top two backs are averaging close to six yards per carry between them, despite having faced TCU, A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama already. But the key to this bet is Hogs junior QB Austin Allen, who has superseded his older brother in his first year as the starter.
Allen is averaging 8.5 yards per pass, with a 18-6 TD-INT ratio and a 64% completion rate. He threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns against Alabama, but he threw three of his six interceptions on the year in that ballgame. No shame in that ? Alabama?s defense is loaded with future NFL players. And he followed up that showing against the Crimson Tide with another three TD effort against Ole Miss last week. Arkansas has seven different receivers who have caught a 25+ yard pass this year, and their top three guys have at least four touchdown catches each.
The markets are down on Arkansas. After all, r ?Bama whipped them on the heels of a three TD loss to Texas A&M in a previous ?step-up? game. But make no mistake about it ? that A&M final score was as misleading as it gets. The game was tied at 17-17 late in the third quarter. Arkansas put together a 15 play, 89 yard drive, but they were stuffed at 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. Two plays later, A&M hit a 92 yard TD strike and the rout was on.
Had Arkansas gotten that single yard, they might well have won that game in SU fashion. Instead, they?re being priced like a team that can?t step up in class, despite that SU win over the Rebels last week.
Auburn is on a 2-6 ATS run as double digit favorites, the two spread covering wins coming against Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe. They?re getting a ton of credit in the betting markets for their supposedly improved play following three straight wins, all over VERY flawed opponents. Last week?s bye leaves the Tigers as the fresher of these two squads, but freshness alone does not equate to a victory by double digits. The Hogs won in quadruple overtime over Auburn last year, and I?m expecting another hotly contested battle this time around.
Arkansas at Auburn
Play: Over 55.5
Auburn's offense has shown a small uptick in productivity since offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee took over play calling duties. Head coach Gus Malzahn on the switch: "I thought he's done an outstanding job," Malzahn said. "I think since that change you can see a difference in our offense with our tempo and just overall moving the football. That's real encouraging moving forward." I'm not going to get carried away by strong offensive showings against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State but it's reasonable to think the Tigers can have continued success this weekend against Arkansas who in three SEC games has allowed 503.7 ypg at 8.39 per clip. Perhaps an even more important stat in those three contests is that the Razorbacks allowed 53% third down conversions. Auburn's tempo is predicated on picking up 4-5 yards on first down and moving the chains which they should be able to do on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Arkansas has proven capable of moving the football. They picked up a lot of garbage yardage by playing from behind against Texas A&M and Alabama but last week posted 200+ on the ground and through the air in their 34-30 upset win over Ole Miss. What really stands out though is Arkansas' game scores against comparable or better competition. Contests against TCU, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss produced point totals of 79, 69, 79, and 64.
Auburn's schedule really hasn't been conducive for overs. Clemson and LSU boast top-tier stops units while Arkansas State, UL-Monroe, and Mississippi State all have below average offenses. Texas A&M grades out as above average offensively and below average defensively in the SEC. The Aggies beat Auburn 29-16 but the pace of that game (166 plays) and combined yardage (877 yards) show they should have reached at least the high 50's if not for poor play in the red zone. I expect Saturday's game to produce a similar offensive output as we play over the total.
Wyoming at Nevada
Play: Wyoming -4
Nevada is a bad football team on both sides of the ball, grading out as 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yards per play) and 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yards per play).
The Wolf Packs's run-first attack is 0.9 yards per rush attempt worse than average (4.3 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per rush attempt) and plays into the strength of Wyoming's defense. Specifically, the Cowboys' stop unit has been 0.7 yards per play better than average against the run this season (3.8 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yards per rush play).
Most teams can exploit Wyoming's subpar secondary that is 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average, but the Wolf Pack are averaging just 179 yards per game through the air in 2016 at 6.7 yards per pass attempt. I don't see how Nevada will be able to move the chains in this game against a well-rested Wyoming squad coming off a bye and showing significant growth under head coach Craig Bohl.
Wyoming is averaging 33.2 points per game this season and should have success moving the ball against a terrible Nevada stop unit that struggles against both the run (0.7 yards per rush play worse than average) and the pass (0.6 yards per pass attempt worse than average). From a technical standpoint, Wyoming is 7-1 ATS in its last eight October games, whereas the Wolf Pack are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 October affairs and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
Sunday morning early:
LOS ANGELES vs N.Y. Giants
LOS ANGELES +131 over N.Y. Giants
The NFL makes its way back to jolly ol' England and what a treat the locals are in for this time. ?Good? Eli finally showed his face and that just happened to coincide with Odell Beckham Jr. having a career day in a 27-23 win over the Ravens. While they won the game, the Giants are a wretched bunch that is likely more interested in partying it up overseas than playing a football game. A strict disciplinarian, Tom Coughlin is no longer in New York, which leaves New HC Ben McAdoo in charge, a complete moron in his own right. It's only a matter of time until McAdoo joins other great idiots like Jeff Fisher and Andy Reid on everyone?s head scratching list. One good game does not make a team and when we look at the Giants entire body of work this season, it's not pretty. The Giants three victories have been by a combined eight points (!) so they are a fraction away from being an 0-6 team and now they?re favored on a neutral field.
The Rams got a career day from Case Keenum but it wasn't enough, as their highly touted defense couldn't stop Matthew Stafford and the Lions when it counted most. The Rams are a defense first team but we like what we saw from Keenum last week. He had chemistry with Kenny Britt, who is a big target. L.A. still has one of the premier running backs in the game in Todd Gurley. While we are usually reluctant to back Jeff Fisher at any point, at least he's an idiot that's been around the block a few times. That is more than we can say for his counterpart.
The big story this week is about how the Rams must travel much further than the East Coast Giants but the effects of this international travel cannot be handicapped. It's going to affect everyone differently and so we?re siding with what we have observed all season. In that regard, the Rams, despite their flaws, are always focused. They also have the better personnel both on and off the field while the Giants sometimes show up but usually do not. Getting a full 60 minute effort from this Giants? bunch is asking way too much. New York almost always has something negative about them making headlines. We all know the elephant in the room that the Giants are dealing with this week that at the very least had to take away more of their already lack of attention to detail. Case Keenum now faces a secondary that almost always allows 250+ yards while Eli Manning plays scared and faces a much tougher defense than his counterpart. We have looked this game over and over and we?re not going to over analyze it. To us, the Rams are the superior team in a big way and that?s precisely how we?ll approach it. Keep the points. Rams outright it is.
4:00 PM CFB [394] Missouri -7.5 -115
9:00 PM CFB [400] LSU -7.5 -115
3:30 PM CFB [406] Alabama -18.5 -115
8:05 PM MLB [910] Chicago Cubs +121 ( C Kershaw - L / K Hendricks - R )
7:05 PM NHL [2] Washington Capitals -163
7:05 PM NHL [6] Chicago Blackhawks -160
7:05 PM NHL [8] Philadelphia Flyers -138
7:05 PM NHL [11] Minnesota Wild -110
8:05 PM NHL [18] Dallas Stars -205
8:05 PM NHL [20] TOTAL u5.5 -135 (Pittsburgh Penguins vrs Nashville Predators)
10:05 PM NHL [21] Vancouver Canucks +140
1 unit bet pays 1511 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
at Nashville both teams' offense short handed, and Nash off a game with some bad defense they promised to clean up tonight. Only 1 of Pitt's 5 games this season has gone over.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Texas @ KANSAS ST
KANSAS ST +105 over Texas
Charlie Strong versus Bill Snyder. That matchup alone makes the Wildcats worthy of a bet here but it goes even deeper than that. Texas earned a win over a weak Iowa State team last week (27-6) and would probably have an interim coach this week if it hadn't. The Longhorns have been a circus act all season long with nothing but drama and distractions, which makes focusing 100% on football extremely difficult. Charlie Strong has won just 14 of his first 31 games at a place with an all-time winning percentage better than 71% and he has already dismissed or reassigned all of his original assistants halfway through his third season. Strong is under immense pressure to deliver but the local media and fans are calling for his head every single week. Texas is 3-3 straight up but the wins have come over teams with a combined 4-16 record. The schedule now gets much tougher so now would the right time to start fading these ?Horns.
Kansas State lost 38-17 to Oklahoma last week as a 10-point dog. The Wildcats cannot be a 10-point dog at Oklahoma and then a dog at home against Texas. The Wildcats were either grossly overvalued last week or undervalued this week. Pick one. We?ll definitely pick the latter. Teams don?t always play their best when expected to and K-State had difficulty last week. However, the Wildcats found some offensive answers against Texas Tech the week prior and the Big 12's top defense survived a Heisman-caliber first-half onslaught from Patrick Mahomes, shutting the Red Raiders down for most of the second stanza. Bill Snyder will try to coax some production out of his green offense again but at the end of the day, of the four units that will be on the field here, K-State?s defense is by far the best unit that will be out there. K-State outright.
Texas/Kansas State Under 54
The Key: Charlie Strong's defense finally lived up to its potential last week in a 27-6 win over Iowa State. The Longhorns held the Cyclones to just 280 yards of total offense in the win. Now they face another offensively-challenged team in the Kansas State Wildcats this week. The Wildcats have been held to 13 points by Stanford, to 16 by West Virginia and to 17 by Oklahoma. Not to mention, starting QB Jesse Ertz is banged up. But the Wildcats do have a great defense that is only giving up 21.0 points per game this season. Head-to-head history makes me really like this UNDER. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 32, 23 and 52 points, respectively. Those 32 and 23-point efforts came the past two seasons. I look for this game to play out similarly.
Central Florida at UConn
Play: Central Florida -4.5
UConn is not a team I trust to beat comparable foes. They have been outgained in five of their last six games including last week?s 42-27 loss to South Florida (529-378). The score could have been a much worse had it not been for a +4 turnover margin in UConn?s favor.
Central Florida has shown the ability to stop the run and that is the key to this game. The Knights are surrendering just 126.7 yards per game on the ground at a paltry 3.2 yards per rush. UConn?s offense simply doesn?t work if they struggle to run the football because QB Bryant Shirreffs is just not a good enough pocket passer to carry his team to victory through the air. He has completed no more than 56.4% of his passes in UConn?s last three games against Houston, Cincinnati and South Florida and has only hit the 60% completion rate mark once in his last five games. Making things worse for the UConn offense is the impact injury absence of starting left guard Tommy Hopkins who sustained a leg injury in last week?s game and will miss the rest of the season.
On the other side of this matchup, the UCF offense has certainly taken a major step forward since freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over at the position. Milton has 5 TD passes and 2 INTs in his first three starts. UCF has shown the ability to win on the road with a 2-1 SU and ATS mark away from home with their only defeat coming in the Big House in Ann Arbor against Michigan. UCF suffered a tough OT loss at home against Maryland earlier this season and bounced back from that with a win and I expect another positive response from the Knights after a tough loss to Temple last week at home on the final play of the game.
Central Florida vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 48
I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut. The under is 33-16-2 in UCF?s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. That?s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road. Central Florida does not trust their group of QB?s who have 1 TD and 2 INT?s on the road and that?s where Uconn has issues on their defense. If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.
I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game. Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half. Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.
Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals. Central Florida struggles to score points when they can?t run the ball. Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense. Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB. Uconn even kept Houston?s attack in check.
Syracuse at Boston College
Play: Over 52.5
This week the ACC has only four games with six of its teams on a bye week but they are all still meaningful. Syracuse goes to Boston College in what shapes up as a bowl bid elimination game since the team which loses this one realistically has no shot at getting to six wins. The Orange enter off of an improbable 31-17 home upset win over Virginia Tech as +22.5 point underdogs. In that contest, the extreme tempo ran 100 plays from scrimmage resulting in 32 first downs, 10-of-21, 47.6% on third down conversions, and 561 total yards which were all season highs posted against Virginia Tech?s defense. Meanwhile, Boston College had a bye last week after being steamrolled 56-10 by Clemson . Their top-ranked total yards against defense was torched for 503 yards in that contest. The Eagles offense was bas as well averaging just 3.5 yards per play.
This game has one fundamental aspect to it that sticks out and appears to be something we can proactively apply here. As good as their overall defensive numbers are, Boston College appears to be a severely flawed unit against teams that push tempo. Versus Justin Fuentes? Virginia Tech offense, BC allowed 476 yards (223 rushing/253 passing) and against the fast paced Clemson spread the final numbers were 503 yards (229 rushing/274 passing). The other four games were against methodical offenses (Georgia Tech, Massachusetts, Wagner and Buffalo) where the Eagles excelled allowing an average of 8 first downs and 145.5 ypg. Those averages are not really skewed either as Georgia Tech?s 240 yards and 17 points were the highest allowed in those four games. Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey and the offense are executing first year head coach Dino Babers? offense pretty efficiently which is going to be a challenge for BC?s defense.
The other side of this matchup pits Syracuse?s woeful defense against the Eagles offense which ranks 121st nationally at 322 ypg. However, Syracuse allowed Wake Forest?s 117th ranked offense which nets just 333 ypg to gain 330 in heavy rain conditions during Hurricane Matthew. Also, the 103rd ranked Connecticut offense produced a season high 425 yards and 24 points against Syracuse. The week off gives the BC coaching staff and the offense led by quarterback Patrick Towles plenty of time to prepare and work on a game plan knowing that Syracuse forces you to have to score plenty in order to beat them.
Syracuse is rolling offensively leading the ACC in passing with 346.1 ypg behind dual threat Dungey. They have faced two of the nation?s top 12 defenses in #7 Virginia Tech and #11 Louisville and in those games Syracuse averaged 493.5 ypg and 29.5 points. With the difficulties BC has shown against up-tempo spreads, it?s tough to see them stopping the Orange offense from at least equaling those numbers. On the other side, expect Boston College to either move the ball and the scoreboard against this iffy SU defense better than they have on average this season. That or have numerous three-and-outs which wear out their defense allowed Syracuse to go for 40+. Either way, the total is too low here at 52.5.
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Pick: Boston College
Syracuse (3-4 / 1-2 in the ACC) will take on Boston College (3-3 / 0-3 in the ACC) Saturday afternoon at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Syracuse is 6th in the seven-team ACC Atlantic Division and Boston College, naturally, is dead-last. The Orange have won four of the last six meetings plus come off the biggest win of Dino Babers? first season. Syracuse hosted Va Tech last Saturday and as a 23-point underdog, won 31-17. The ?Cuse didn?t just beat the then-No. 19 Hokies, they rolled up 561 yards on an excellent defensive Va Tecgh unit. QB Dungey passed for 311 yards with one TD pass plus added 106 yards and another TD. "The biggest thing about this win is that any time you take over a program you're trying to get everybody to buy in, you're trying to get everybody to work as one," coach Dino Babers said after the game. "...It's always that way until you get that one win that solidifies you, that brings you together, that hardship that brings the family closer together. That's what happened today. We're now family."
Boston College last played October 7th, losing emphatically 56-10 to Clemson. Despite that blowout loss, the Boston College defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (252.2 YPG) and 23.7 PPG, which ranks 43rd. The Eagles had hoped Kentucky transfer QB Patrick Towles would add ?something extra? to this year?s oddense (BC averaged only 17.2 PPG in 2015). However, that hasn?t been the case, as he?s completed just 50.8 percent for 897 yards, although he?s thrown only three INTs (against seven TDs). Still, BC has hardly had a breakout year offensively, averaging 21.2 PPG. The Eagles have been outscored by 105-10 in their last two conference contests, with Towles going a combined 20-of-50 for 171 yards.
Boston College has notably lost 11 consecutive ACC games but as fate would have it, the school?s last league win came back on Nov 29, 2014, a 28-7 triumph at home against Syracuse. This is the Eagles' fourth straight home game and arguably its best chance to end their ACC losing streak. Syracuse is off a HUGE upset win over Va Tech plus BC head coach Steve Addazzio and DC Jim Reid have had two full weeks to prepare the defense for a big effort. The bet is BC!
MISSISSIPPI AT LSU
PLAY: LSU -5.5
Talk about the proverbial line being drawn in the sand! We should find out this Saturday whether it?s a two-week spike or the real deal as LSU plays host to Mississippi in what should be an electric atmosphere at Baton Rouge.
It?s definitely small sample, only two games to be precise. But I don?t think it?s stretching the point to assert that the LSU Tigers have a new lease on life. The Bayou Bengals have looked totally dominant in a pair of blowout wins. No doubt about it, Ole Miss is going to likely be a far tougher test than were either Missouri or Southern Mississippi. But there?s also simply no denying that current LSU squad bears little resemblance to the one Les Miles left behind. Interim coach Ed Orgeron can out himself in great position to get that interim tag rendered obsolete with a win over the very talented Rebels.
Ole Miss is probably the best 3-3 team in college football. The Rebels are not far from being 6-0. They let a big lead get away against Florida State. Mississippi led Alabama at the half before again getting run over after the break, though they did fight back admirably late in that clash. They again held the lead on Saturday at Arkansas before allowing the fairly late today that got the Razorbacks the win.
Head coach Hugh Freeze has his work cut out this week. As good as the Rebels are, they?re pretty much history as far as locking down a major bowl goes with the three losses. That?s a big hurdle for a team that had playoff asprations to try and overcome. Ole Miss is also facing a revved up host that is not only surging, but one that also has a major revenge motive from a pretty lopsided loss last season.
The tough part for me in looking at LSU here is that the overall season to date numbers suggest this line is too high. But that?s where my opinion enters the mix. Maybe it?s folly on my part, but I have basically tossed out those first four games for LSU. Even if I include them, it?s not like those narrow losses to Wisconsin and Auburn are horrible. But I have to believe if those games were to get replayed, we might very well get a different result in the rematches.
Orgeron has revitalized the Tigers. There?s no guarantee the team maintains the form on display since the coaching change took place. But I have to think the home team will be heading into this duel with the more positive mindset, and in terms of talent they sure don?t take a back seat to many. I like LSU here and feel they?ll win by enough to cover the spread in the process.
Oklahoma / Texas Tech Over 84
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Oklahoma Sooners hit the road to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX, on Saturday night. Oklahoma has posted a 13-7 record to the over in their last 20 games following a game against a Big 12 opponent and they have gone an excellent 16-5 to the over in their last 21 Big 12 games. They have also gone a perfect 8-0 to the over in their last eight road games where they were listed as a favorite of 11-15 points and they have gone a lights out 10-1 to the over in their last eleven road games. The Red Raiders have been an over team as well as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games where they were listed as an underdog of 10-21 points and they have gone an excellent 9-3 to the over in their last twelve games where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also gone up and over the total in eleven of their last fourteen home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over the total in each of their last five head-to-head meetings, and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a shootout in Lubbock on Saturday night. G
Ohio State @ PENN ST
#401 PENN ST +20 -109 over Ohio State
Ohio State has looked every bit deserving of the #2 ranking they own this season so far. The Buckeyes have trampled virtually every team they have come across and when they were tested by top-10 ranked Wisconsin, the Buckeyes did not hit the panic switch when they trailed. Instead, they battled back and won the game in overtime. Characterized by their notorious poise and moxie they exude in pressure situations, the Buckeyes once again did what they had to when they were under the gun. Generally, high-profile games of this nature generate a reaction the following week if something significant occurs in the featured match. From the Ohio State-Wisconsin clash, the general consensus is that Ohio State is every bit as a good as their ranking suggests and secondly, Wisconsin may be better than their rating indicates. Now, Ohio State has to travel to a notoriously hostile environment that plays home to a football team that has been battle-tested and snake-bitten in the early part of this season.
Penn State has an affinity for being a menace at Happy Valley especially when they get a game under the lights where they can white out a hated rival. The last time Ohio State came to town, they entered in almost identical fashion, spotting big points to the home hosts who were primed for an upset bid. Penn State took Ohio State to overtime but they led by as much as 17 before the Buckeyes would come roaring back. Sure, Ohio State may have blown the doors off of Penn State at home last year and yes they have won their last five against the Nittany Lions overall but PSU is a far better 4-2 team than the record may or may not suggest. One of Penn State?s losses this year came against #4 Michigan when the Nittany Lions were extremely short-handed, as 14 starters were injured for that game. The only other loss Penn State suffered was a three-point defeat at Pittsburgh where the Nittany Lions were able to rally back and make a game of the contest after Pitt jumped out to a commanding lead.
At home this season, Penn State is undefeated and they have taken down teams like Temple and Maryland along the way. Maryland at one point entered as a team forecasted as a potential culprit ready to pull off a win at Happy Valley. Penn State had other ideas and put the wood to the Terrapins in a blowout victory. The market and analysts alike have little faith in Penn State keeping this one manageable but Ohio State had to battle hard to pick up the W last week and more often than not the match-up that follows often fosters some attrition. The ?White Out? game is one of the greatest spectacles in sports. It is so difficult for an opponent to go into Happy Valley in this annual event and blow out the Lions. Now OSU is being asked to win by nearly three converted TD?s but no matter how you break it down, we will once again side with the massively inflated points here.
Old Dominion @ W. KENTUCKY
Old Dominion has been a cute success story at 4-2, but let?s really break that down. They have wins over Hampton, UTSA, Charlotte, and Massachusetts. Those teams are a combined 9-17 on the season. The three FBS wins are over the #101, #124, and #118 ranked teams according to the S&P+ rankings. When they have faced off versus top 40 S&P+ programs, they have been outscored 80-29. WKU is only #59 in those rankings, but are a bigger test than either Appalachian State or North Carolina State. The Monarchs are getting way too much credit here and absolutely not enough points. Sell high.
WKU is much better than their 4-3 record suggests. They played Alabama much closer than the final score suggests and blew the games versus both Vanderbilt and Louisiana Tech. They could easily be 6-1 and getting votes in the top 25 if a few plays went differently. Western Kentucky hasn't covered a game since the opener so anyone that has backed them over the past six weeks has ripped up their ticket. Now we get to step in and buy low. The Hilltoppers are finding their footing after losing some key players to graduation at the end of last year. WKU QB Mike White ranks seventh nationally with 2,098 passing yards, ninth with a passing efficiency rating of 164.3 and 12th with 16 TD passes. Both receivers Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris have been outstanding with a combined 1500+ yards and 13 touchdowns, higher totals than ODU quarterback David Robertson has for the season. If the ?Toppers are stopped in the passing game (very unlikely) they can always fall back to the run game which features one of the best G5 running backs in senior Anthony Wales. He has been electric since coming back from an early season injury. WKU is playing great football without the wins. They are about to start paying off at the window and now would be the right time to put the hammer down
Arkansas vs. Auburn
Play: Arkansas +10
Arkansas has a reputation in the Brett Bielema era of being a pure smashmouth, run first squad. Part of that is true this year ? the Razorbacks can certainly play some power football in the trenches ? their top two backs are averaging close to six yards per carry between them, despite having faced TCU, A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama already. But the key to this bet is Hogs junior QB Austin Allen, who has superseded his older brother in his first year as the starter.
Allen is averaging 8.5 yards per pass, with a 18-6 TD-INT ratio and a 64% completion rate. He threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns against Alabama, but he threw three of his six interceptions on the year in that ballgame. No shame in that ? Alabama?s defense is loaded with future NFL players. And he followed up that showing against the Crimson Tide with another three TD effort against Ole Miss last week. Arkansas has seven different receivers who have caught a 25+ yard pass this year, and their top three guys have at least four touchdown catches each.
The markets are down on Arkansas. After all, r ?Bama whipped them on the heels of a three TD loss to Texas A&M in a previous ?step-up? game. But make no mistake about it ? that A&M final score was as misleading as it gets. The game was tied at 17-17 late in the third quarter. Arkansas put together a 15 play, 89 yard drive, but they were stuffed at 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. Two plays later, A&M hit a 92 yard TD strike and the rout was on.
Had Arkansas gotten that single yard, they might well have won that game in SU fashion. Instead, they?re being priced like a team that can?t step up in class, despite that SU win over the Rebels last week.
Auburn is on a 2-6 ATS run as double digit favorites, the two spread covering wins coming against Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe. They?re getting a ton of credit in the betting markets for their supposedly improved play following three straight wins, all over VERY flawed opponents. Last week?s bye leaves the Tigers as the fresher of these two squads, but freshness alone does not equate to a victory by double digits. The Hogs won in quadruple overtime over Auburn last year, and I?m expecting another hotly contested battle this time around.
Arkansas at Auburn
Play: Over 55.5
Auburn's offense has shown a small uptick in productivity since offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee took over play calling duties. Head coach Gus Malzahn on the switch: "I thought he's done an outstanding job," Malzahn said. "I think since that change you can see a difference in our offense with our tempo and just overall moving the football. That's real encouraging moving forward." I'm not going to get carried away by strong offensive showings against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State but it's reasonable to think the Tigers can have continued success this weekend against Arkansas who in three SEC games has allowed 503.7 ypg at 8.39 per clip. Perhaps an even more important stat in those three contests is that the Razorbacks allowed 53% third down conversions. Auburn's tempo is predicated on picking up 4-5 yards on first down and moving the chains which they should be able to do on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Arkansas has proven capable of moving the football. They picked up a lot of garbage yardage by playing from behind against Texas A&M and Alabama but last week posted 200+ on the ground and through the air in their 34-30 upset win over Ole Miss. What really stands out though is Arkansas' game scores against comparable or better competition. Contests against TCU, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss produced point totals of 79, 69, 79, and 64.
Auburn's schedule really hasn't been conducive for overs. Clemson and LSU boast top-tier stops units while Arkansas State, UL-Monroe, and Mississippi State all have below average offenses. Texas A&M grades out as above average offensively and below average defensively in the SEC. The Aggies beat Auburn 29-16 but the pace of that game (166 plays) and combined yardage (877 yards) show they should have reached at least the high 50's if not for poor play in the red zone. I expect Saturday's game to produce a similar offensive output as we play over the total.
Wyoming at Nevada
Play: Wyoming -4
Nevada is a bad football team on both sides of the ball, grading out as 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yards per play) and 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yards per play).
The Wolf Packs's run-first attack is 0.9 yards per rush attempt worse than average (4.3 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per rush attempt) and plays into the strength of Wyoming's defense. Specifically, the Cowboys' stop unit has been 0.7 yards per play better than average against the run this season (3.8 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yards per rush play).
Most teams can exploit Wyoming's subpar secondary that is 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average, but the Wolf Pack are averaging just 179 yards per game through the air in 2016 at 6.7 yards per pass attempt. I don't see how Nevada will be able to move the chains in this game against a well-rested Wyoming squad coming off a bye and showing significant growth under head coach Craig Bohl.
Wyoming is averaging 33.2 points per game this season and should have success moving the ball against a terrible Nevada stop unit that struggles against both the run (0.7 yards per rush play worse than average) and the pass (0.6 yards per pass attempt worse than average). From a technical standpoint, Wyoming is 7-1 ATS in its last eight October games, whereas the Wolf Pack are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 October affairs and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
Sunday morning early:
LOS ANGELES vs N.Y. Giants
LOS ANGELES +131 over N.Y. Giants
The NFL makes its way back to jolly ol' England and what a treat the locals are in for this time. ?Good? Eli finally showed his face and that just happened to coincide with Odell Beckham Jr. having a career day in a 27-23 win over the Ravens. While they won the game, the Giants are a wretched bunch that is likely more interested in partying it up overseas than playing a football game. A strict disciplinarian, Tom Coughlin is no longer in New York, which leaves New HC Ben McAdoo in charge, a complete moron in his own right. It's only a matter of time until McAdoo joins other great idiots like Jeff Fisher and Andy Reid on everyone?s head scratching list. One good game does not make a team and when we look at the Giants entire body of work this season, it's not pretty. The Giants three victories have been by a combined eight points (!) so they are a fraction away from being an 0-6 team and now they?re favored on a neutral field.
The Rams got a career day from Case Keenum but it wasn't enough, as their highly touted defense couldn't stop Matthew Stafford and the Lions when it counted most. The Rams are a defense first team but we like what we saw from Keenum last week. He had chemistry with Kenny Britt, who is a big target. L.A. still has one of the premier running backs in the game in Todd Gurley. While we are usually reluctant to back Jeff Fisher at any point, at least he's an idiot that's been around the block a few times. That is more than we can say for his counterpart.
The big story this week is about how the Rams must travel much further than the East Coast Giants but the effects of this international travel cannot be handicapped. It's going to affect everyone differently and so we?re siding with what we have observed all season. In that regard, the Rams, despite their flaws, are always focused. They also have the better personnel both on and off the field while the Giants sometimes show up but usually do not. Getting a full 60 minute effort from this Giants? bunch is asking way too much. New York almost always has something negative about them making headlines. We all know the elephant in the room that the Giants are dealing with this week that at the very least had to take away more of their already lack of attention to detail. Case Keenum now faces a secondary that almost always allows 250+ yards while Eli Manning plays scared and faces a much tougher defense than his counterpart. We have looked this game over and over and we?re not going to over analyze it. To us, the Rams are the superior team in a big way and that?s precisely how we?ll approach it. Keep the points. Rams outright it is.
