07:05 PM NHL [2] Columbus Blue Jackets +113
07:05 PM NHL [8] Pittsburgh Penguins -240
07:05 PM NHL [14] Montreal Canadiens -175
07:05 PM NHL [16] TOTAL u5-145 (Buffalo Sabres vrs New Jersey Devils)
08:05 PM NHL [17] Boston Bruins -160
10:05 PM NHL [21] New York Rangers -142
07:00 PM CFB [170] TOTAL u46-110 (LSU vrs Arkansas)
07:35 PM NBA [506] Toronto Raptors -5.5 -150 (B+2)
07:30 PM CBB [531] Akron -6.5 -150 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 116 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Buffalo-Under is 4-0 in Sabres last 4 road games, and 9-1 last 10 overall.
Devils Under is 4-2-4 last 10 overall...Under is 14-3-2 in the last 19 Buffalo/Devils meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 31-13-9 in Devils last 53 games playing on 0 days rest....
both #1 goalies confirmed for tonight..That means Schneider at home..top forwards Ryan O'Reilly (Sabres) and Cammalleri (Devils) are probably out
Pittsburgh is 37-16 in their last 53 games playing on 1 days rest
This is a bad spot for Toronto as they are playing this game with no rest vs a Pittsburgh team that is off a tough home loss. That has me taking the Pens on the puckline. The Leafs have not been a good road team the last couple of years and are 1-5 on the road this year so far, while the Pens have been a strong home team and they are 7-1 their last 8 games in this series overall. I don?t see the leafs keeping this one within two goal.
Buffalo vs. New Jersey
Pick: New Jersey
Tonight it will be the back end of a home-and-home series which saw the Devils travel to upstate New York last night and beat the Sabres in overtime in a very close contest. They should be able to complete the sweep tonight at Prudential Center where they have yet to lose in regulation this season (5-0-1). That lone OT loss was against a very good Blackhawks team back on October 28. Despite the fact that Buffalo has played better on the road this season than they have at home, the Sabres are a very banged up team right now with no fewer than six regulars either out indefinitely, on the I-R, or questionable for this game. The Devils had some pretty solid defense and goaltending last season, allowing just 2.46 goals per game, while their offense was the worst in the NHL at 2.22 GPG. It's early still, but the Devils have somewhat reversed those numbers so far in 2016-2017, scoring at a 2.33 clip while allowing a very stingy 2.25 goals per contest (fifth-best in the league). With the OT loss on Friday, the Sabres are now 1-5 in the last six meetings.
San Jose -108 over TAMPA BAY
Regulation only. This regulation wager is available at Pinnacle and 5Dimes, whereas a tie after regulation will result in a push. If you do not have that option, betting Tampa Bay is still recommended. We play it this way because if OT and shootouts are a 50/50 proposition, then spotting juice in extra time would therefore be a losing proposition over time.
Getting the Bolts at home in an evenly priced game may appear appealing but it is not. The Bolts are highly regarded as one of the teams to beat in the East but unless something changes in a real hurry, they are a first round exit waiting to happen. Tampa?s defense is the problem here. Only three teams have more defensive zone faceoffs than the Bolts. They rank 19th in Corsi against and that?s after playing the 16th ranked schedule in the league. Perhaps most telling is that the Lightning are 0-3 against top-10 competition and 1-4 against top-16. Tampa has three wins in its last eight games. Two of those victories occurred against the Islanders and the other one occurred against the Devils. Furthermore, the Bolts offense isn?t as great as advertised either, as they have scored one goal in four of their last eight games. Finally, Ben Bishop is on our overrated list. He?s widely regarded as one of the best but we?re suggesting he?s one of the worst. Bishop continues to give up soft goals frequently and the only reason he makes so many saves is because he takes up 7/8 of the net. He?s slow and very beatable.
The Sharkies have won two straight on this current East Coast trip so hopefully we?re not too late to the party. What sticks out the most is San Jose?s stingy defense, as they have allowed a mere 24, 24, 25 and 20 shots against in their last four games respectively. San Jose has allowed 25 shots or less in seven of its last 10 games and even when they allow more than that, it is just slightly. When a team that can score is allowing eight shots on net or less per period, their win expectation is through the roof. The Sharkies have a history of playing great hockey on these East Coast swings and we expect it to continue here.
Boston -? +108 over ARIZONA
Regulation only. Boston was not high on our radar to begin the year. We figured that the Bruins were getting older and were in a transition period but the more we see this team play and the deeper we look into their numbers, the more they stand out as a threat. Only two teams, Nashville and New Jersey have allowed less high quality scoring chances than the B?s. Only three teams have higher puck possession numbers than the Bruins. Whether it?s on offense or defense, the Bruins rank high on the analytics scale. It gets even better too. According to the Sagarin ratings, Boston has played the toughest schedule in the league and yet they are still 8-6. The Bruins are 1-5 against top-10 teams but that is a misleading number when you consider that Tuukka Rask was not in goal in four of those six games. Rask will bring his .938 save % into this game. The Bruins have won four of six and take a big step down in class in this, the first game of a three-game trip.
The Coyotes on the other hand can?t get out of their own way. They definitely can?t get out of their own end either. Last year we saw the emergence of Max Domi and Anthony Duclair. This year, neither has been heard from. Last year, Arizona appeared to be coming on and was often a tough out. This year, they are softer, beatable and playing with far less swag. Arizona has the biggest discrepancy in the NHL between high quality chances for and high quality chances against. They have created just 78 while allowing 138. Most teams have a discrepancy in the 10-20 range. The ?Yotes have brutal numbers right across the board at both ends of the ice. They are often running around in their own end while rarely sustaining any offensive time. Lastly, the goaltending matchup here heavily favors the B?s too.
Michigan / Iowa 1st Half Over 27.5
The Michigan first half over train continues as last week the Wolverines jumped out to a 35-0 half time lead over Maryland. And it's not just first halves as Michigan is also 7-2 O/U from a full game perspective. And if you're worried Jim Harbaugh may let off the pedal at some point, don't. In the win over the Terps, UM scored two fourth quarter touchdowns; the last of which via the pass with three minutes remaining. This week's opponent, Iowa, serves as yet another opportunity to step on a neck.
Iowa's schedule has been laughable in terms of opposing offenses. Miami-Ohio, Rutgers, and Wisconsin all rank 101st or worse in total offense. Iowa State, Minnesota, and Northwestern check in at 89th, 83rd, and 96th respectively. The two "top" offenses the Hawkeyes faced were Purdue (58th) and Penn State (59th). And in those two games, Iowa allowed 76 points and 7.3 yards per play. Michigan of course is significantly better offensively that those aforementioned teams. The Wolverines are averaging 6.74 yards per play. Take away their slobberknocker against a stout Wisky defense and that number jumps to over 7 yards per play.
You also have to question to level of effort from Iowa moving forward. After a 5-2 start, the Hawkeyes were dismantled by Wisconsin and Penn State. The score against the Badgers (17-9) looks respectable but Iowa was outgained 423-236 (3.9-5.79 ypp). And the score and box score of the Penn State game was ugly: 41-14 loss, outgained 599-234.
The concern here is obviously Iowa's anemic offense though Michigan has gone over the total both first half and full game a number of times without the help of the opposing offense. Still, you'd like to see the Hawkeyes punch in a score. I would expect them to pull out all the stops including some new plays/looks knowing that attacking Michigan's defense in a traditional manner simply won't work.
Michigan -21.5
Fresh off a 59-3 win over Maryland, Michigan gets to travel to Iowa and take on the 5-4 Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. The Wolverines will dress in the famed pink locker rooms that will likely not have the effect that Iowa would like. Michigan is certainly the Big Ten?s best defense and possibly the nation?s. The Wolverines give up an average of just 10.7 points per game. That is tops in the country. Head coach Jim Harbaugh?s defense has held six of nine opponents to 10 points or less.
Iowa brings the type of offense that might give Michigan some trouble, but the Hawkeyes have been beaten up in consecutive weeks by ranked opponents. Tenth-ranked Wisconsin beat Iowa 17-9 and then No. 12 Penn State put a hurting on the Hawkeyes in a 41-14 defeat. As if taking on the No. 3 team in the country isn?t enough, Iowa finishes the season against ranked Nebraska on Nov. 25.
Iowa is just mediocre all the way around. Quarterback C.J. Beathard leads the offense with 1,584 yards passing and 13 touchdowns. Akrum Wadley is the leading rusher (664 yards, 8 TDs) and WR Riley McCarron leads the team in receiving yards with 378. On the other side of the ball, Michigan is also one of the nation?s best offenses. The Wolverines average nearly 48 points a game, third-best in the country. Four running backs ? De?Veon Smith, Chris Evans, Karan Higdon, and Ty Isaac ? have rushed for at least 400 yards. Quarterback Wilson Speight is extremely efficient. He is completing 64.5 percent of his passes and has 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Minnesota at Nebraska
Play: Minnesota +7
While most assume Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West the winner of this game will still have shot. Nebraska no longer controls their path with a blowout loss at Ohio State last week on the heels of the epic overtime game with Wisconsin. Tommy Armstrong had a scary injury last week which certainly had an impact in the 62-3 result and his status is unknown at this point though he appears on pace to be cleared in the concussion protocol. Minnesota doesn?t have much in terms of quality wins on the resume but the three-point loss at Penn State in a game Minnesota led most of the way is looking more impressive. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings in this series including winning in Lincoln in 2015 and only once all season have the Gophers been out-gained on the ground. The defensive numbers heavily favor the Gophers and quality wins are certainly absent for Nebraska as well despite their higher rating. A Minnesota run defense allowing just 3.3 yards per rush along with a pass defense allowing only 54 percent completions should keep the Gophers in this game. The three games in which Nebraska has been out-rushed were both losses and the miraculous home win over Oregon while Minnesota has out-rushed eight of nine foes on the season making for a very attractive heavy underdog with the Gophers 10-2 the last 12 instances as a road underdog and Nebraska on a 3-8-1 ATS home favorite run.
Hawaii (+17.5) over Boise State
Boise State's dream of an undefeated season was ruined a few weeks ago in their loss at Wyoming as the Broncos led the entire way until a late-game collapse ended their perfect season. It won't be easy for Boise State to get themselves focused and motivated following that type of defeat, and we saw proof of that last week as they struggled to beat a bad San Jose State team that they were favored by 31.5 points over. They now have to fly out to Hawaii and take care of business, which isn't an easy thing for teams to concentrate on doing, especially when they are already lacking in the very important concentration department. Hawaii started the season off playing a schedule that no CFB team should ever have to endure. Once things settled down, though, the Rainbows played much better as they won 3 of 5 games overall, and those 2 losses came in just one-possession games. They were badly embarrassed, though, last week in a no-show 55-0 loss at red hot San Diego State. That's the type of ugly defeat that should help them here in this game bring back the much-needed intensity. Look for the Rainbows to keep things closer than expected here against what is likely an unfocused favorite. Take Hawaii plus the points in this game.
Air Force (-5.5) over Colorado St
Home field has played a big part in this series. This is a rivalry up in Colorado, and the home team has won four straight and five of six meetings. Air Force has gotten the better of the Rams and has beaten Colorado State in eight of the last 10 years. The Falcons are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings against Colorado State, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four. Air Force has won back-to-back games on the road. That includes a strong game last week in a win over Army. I think that this team has some momentum and has turned things around after a downturn and three straight losses in October. Colorado State has gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. But now the books are onto them. And the public is going with the underdog here. But all the trends favor the home team, and I think that Air Force will get the job done.
LSU vs. Arkansas
Play: Under 46
Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their most impressive effort of the season in a 31-10 smack down of Florida last week. The Arkansas defense, which looked like it was asleep at the proverbial wheel the previous week in a 56-3 loss to Auburn, was over powering against the Gators, allowing just 12 rushing yards. Coach Brett Bielema used the extra time to revamp his starting 11 on the defensive side of the ball, and it looks like it worked wonders. Meanwhile, LSU lost a hard fought 10-0 decision to Alabama, but once again showcased a D, that is on par with the best of the SEC. With that said, look for a game that features alot of clock moving old fashioned grinding football.
LSU is 8-0 UNDER in all games this season. Orgeron is 16-6 UNDER L/22 after playing a game at home in all games he has coached.
All CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 like the Razorbacks - average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game have gone under 30 of 36 times in the following game.
Washington / USC Under 63.5
The Trojans are playing with revenge from a 17-12 (-17) loss at home to Washington last year which was the final game under Sarkisian. USC has won 5 straight games have been +150 yards in all 5 games. This atmosphere will really test young USC QB Sam Darnold who has been a revelation so far this season (20-3 TD-to-INT ratio). Washington QB Browning has a ridiculous 34-3 TD-to-INT ratio this season and the Huskies let out some frustration for the their initial CFB Playoff ranking last week as they dismantled Cal 66-27 (-19.5) with a 704-362 yard edge. USC has performed much better at home than on the road in the Helton era as the Trojans are just 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS on the road. Washington is 8-1 to the OVER this year which has driven up this totals? line but USC counters with 5 straight UNDERS. They've played a slower tempo under head coach Helton (UNDER is 11-4 last 15 games) and Washington is unlikely to run up the score here as they've done against the weaker teams on their schedule this season.
ARIZONA +16 over Colorado
Arizona is 1-8 against the spread and has lost six straight by ever-increasing margins. The last time we saw the Wildcats was in Washington last week where they suffered a 69-7 humiliation. We can assure you that result has heavy influence on this week?s market. It is so damn hard to pull the trigger on this 2-7 host after that loss last week but football, especially college, is all about picking the right spots and this one sets up perfectly to fade the Buffalos.
This now becomes a spot where we'll have the home dog or nothing. The Buffs are coming off an emotionally charged win over UCLA, and are staring at league contenders #25 Washington State and #15 Utah in the season's final two weeks. It will be near impossible for Colorado to watch film of Arizona's past two outings and feel threatened, yet Rich Rodriguez' teams have averaged 44 points, 590 total yards and 355 rushing yards against Colorado the past four meetings, all Arizona wins. The number has finally caught up with Ralphie and we'll credit Richrod's team with enough pride to bounce back and make a better showing this week in front of the home crowd in what -- despite the Buffaloes' gaudy record -- has to feel to the Cats' players and coaches like their most winnable game in more than a month. You rarely, if ever, should sell a major conference squad after getting humiliated the week prior. For the Buffs, this game is sandwiched between UCLA last week and Washington and Utah on deck. In other words, it?s the worst possible time to buy the Buffs and if you are buying, you would be doing so at an inflated price. No thanks to that.
California / Washington St Over 83
Offense should be a plenty here when California and Washington State meet on Saturday. Both teams love to whip the ball all over the field and will certainly take their fair share of shots down field.
The Golden Bears are putting up 40 points per game behind QB Davis Webb and what is a very impressive offense. The Golden Bears use plenty of pace as well, which is something to keep note of here as that certainly helps the cause for the Over. Defensively, things have been atrocious for Cal. They're conceding 44.4 points per game and it seems a lot worse than that even.
For the Cougars, Washington State is putting up 43.0 points per game and even sees that number fly up at home where they average 49.0 points per game. They're much better defensively than California, but they're still vulnerable to the deep ball.
Some trends to note.Over is 11-3 in Cougars last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 9-2 in Golden Bears last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Expect a lot of scores and a little defense here in this one.
The Broncos have a plethora of injuries to deal with, but they still boast two-time All-West Coast Conference guard Jared Brownridge, who is coming off a junior season in which he led the conference in scoring at 20.6 points per game. Without Feagin and Wardlow, however, they may have problems against an athletic UC Davis squad. A big backcourt advantage, thanks to Adenrele and Graham, should go to UCD. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Santa Clara is 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and 6-21 ATS in its last 27 against the Big West Conference. Look for those trends to continue.
San Antonio @ Houston
Pick: San Antonio -105
The San Antonio Spurs have come out of the Tim Duncan era and into the Kawhi Leonard era. Leonard is leading the Spurs in scoring at 26.2 points per game, but he is so much more than that stuffing the stat column with rebounding, assists, and steals, and playing solid defensively. The Spurs remain a deep and talented team, with nine players scoring five points or more per contest. They have long been able to win on the road in tough buildings, and that has been key to their success. This year San Antonio is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road as they head to Houston. The Spurs lost by two points in San Antonio to the Rockets just three days ago, so they will be on a mission tonight. The Rockets are coming off a stretch of having played seven of their last eight on the road, including their last five, and this is a tired team right now. Coach Popovich has his teams at 67-36 ATS when revenging a loss as a seven point favorite or more, so expect the Spurs to be bringing it tonight.
07:05 PM NHL [8] Pittsburgh Penguins -240
07:05 PM NHL [14] Montreal Canadiens -175
07:05 PM NHL [16] TOTAL u5-145 (Buffalo Sabres vrs New Jersey Devils)
08:05 PM NHL [17] Boston Bruins -160
10:05 PM NHL [21] New York Rangers -142
07:00 PM CFB [170] TOTAL u46-110 (LSU vrs Arkansas)
07:35 PM NBA [506] Toronto Raptors -5.5 -150 (B+2)
07:30 PM CBB [531] Akron -6.5 -150 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 116 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Buffalo-Under is 4-0 in Sabres last 4 road games, and 9-1 last 10 overall.
Devils Under is 4-2-4 last 10 overall...Under is 14-3-2 in the last 19 Buffalo/Devils meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 31-13-9 in Devils last 53 games playing on 0 days rest....
both #1 goalies confirmed for tonight..That means Schneider at home..top forwards Ryan O'Reilly (Sabres) and Cammalleri (Devils) are probably out
Pittsburgh is 37-16 in their last 53 games playing on 1 days rest
This is a bad spot for Toronto as they are playing this game with no rest vs a Pittsburgh team that is off a tough home loss. That has me taking the Pens on the puckline. The Leafs have not been a good road team the last couple of years and are 1-5 on the road this year so far, while the Pens have been a strong home team and they are 7-1 their last 8 games in this series overall. I don?t see the leafs keeping this one within two goal.
Buffalo vs. New Jersey
Pick: New Jersey
Tonight it will be the back end of a home-and-home series which saw the Devils travel to upstate New York last night and beat the Sabres in overtime in a very close contest. They should be able to complete the sweep tonight at Prudential Center where they have yet to lose in regulation this season (5-0-1). That lone OT loss was against a very good Blackhawks team back on October 28. Despite the fact that Buffalo has played better on the road this season than they have at home, the Sabres are a very banged up team right now with no fewer than six regulars either out indefinitely, on the I-R, or questionable for this game. The Devils had some pretty solid defense and goaltending last season, allowing just 2.46 goals per game, while their offense was the worst in the NHL at 2.22 GPG. It's early still, but the Devils have somewhat reversed those numbers so far in 2016-2017, scoring at a 2.33 clip while allowing a very stingy 2.25 goals per contest (fifth-best in the league). With the OT loss on Friday, the Sabres are now 1-5 in the last six meetings.
San Jose -108 over TAMPA BAY
Regulation only. This regulation wager is available at Pinnacle and 5Dimes, whereas a tie after regulation will result in a push. If you do not have that option, betting Tampa Bay is still recommended. We play it this way because if OT and shootouts are a 50/50 proposition, then spotting juice in extra time would therefore be a losing proposition over time.
Getting the Bolts at home in an evenly priced game may appear appealing but it is not. The Bolts are highly regarded as one of the teams to beat in the East but unless something changes in a real hurry, they are a first round exit waiting to happen. Tampa?s defense is the problem here. Only three teams have more defensive zone faceoffs than the Bolts. They rank 19th in Corsi against and that?s after playing the 16th ranked schedule in the league. Perhaps most telling is that the Lightning are 0-3 against top-10 competition and 1-4 against top-16. Tampa has three wins in its last eight games. Two of those victories occurred against the Islanders and the other one occurred against the Devils. Furthermore, the Bolts offense isn?t as great as advertised either, as they have scored one goal in four of their last eight games. Finally, Ben Bishop is on our overrated list. He?s widely regarded as one of the best but we?re suggesting he?s one of the worst. Bishop continues to give up soft goals frequently and the only reason he makes so many saves is because he takes up 7/8 of the net. He?s slow and very beatable.
The Sharkies have won two straight on this current East Coast trip so hopefully we?re not too late to the party. What sticks out the most is San Jose?s stingy defense, as they have allowed a mere 24, 24, 25 and 20 shots against in their last four games respectively. San Jose has allowed 25 shots or less in seven of its last 10 games and even when they allow more than that, it is just slightly. When a team that can score is allowing eight shots on net or less per period, their win expectation is through the roof. The Sharkies have a history of playing great hockey on these East Coast swings and we expect it to continue here.
Boston -? +108 over ARIZONA
Regulation only. Boston was not high on our radar to begin the year. We figured that the Bruins were getting older and were in a transition period but the more we see this team play and the deeper we look into their numbers, the more they stand out as a threat. Only two teams, Nashville and New Jersey have allowed less high quality scoring chances than the B?s. Only three teams have higher puck possession numbers than the Bruins. Whether it?s on offense or defense, the Bruins rank high on the analytics scale. It gets even better too. According to the Sagarin ratings, Boston has played the toughest schedule in the league and yet they are still 8-6. The Bruins are 1-5 against top-10 teams but that is a misleading number when you consider that Tuukka Rask was not in goal in four of those six games. Rask will bring his .938 save % into this game. The Bruins have won four of six and take a big step down in class in this, the first game of a three-game trip.
The Coyotes on the other hand can?t get out of their own way. They definitely can?t get out of their own end either. Last year we saw the emergence of Max Domi and Anthony Duclair. This year, neither has been heard from. Last year, Arizona appeared to be coming on and was often a tough out. This year, they are softer, beatable and playing with far less swag. Arizona has the biggest discrepancy in the NHL between high quality chances for and high quality chances against. They have created just 78 while allowing 138. Most teams have a discrepancy in the 10-20 range. The ?Yotes have brutal numbers right across the board at both ends of the ice. They are often running around in their own end while rarely sustaining any offensive time. Lastly, the goaltending matchup here heavily favors the B?s too.
Michigan / Iowa 1st Half Over 27.5
The Michigan first half over train continues as last week the Wolverines jumped out to a 35-0 half time lead over Maryland. And it's not just first halves as Michigan is also 7-2 O/U from a full game perspective. And if you're worried Jim Harbaugh may let off the pedal at some point, don't. In the win over the Terps, UM scored two fourth quarter touchdowns; the last of which via the pass with three minutes remaining. This week's opponent, Iowa, serves as yet another opportunity to step on a neck.
Iowa's schedule has been laughable in terms of opposing offenses. Miami-Ohio, Rutgers, and Wisconsin all rank 101st or worse in total offense. Iowa State, Minnesota, and Northwestern check in at 89th, 83rd, and 96th respectively. The two "top" offenses the Hawkeyes faced were Purdue (58th) and Penn State (59th). And in those two games, Iowa allowed 76 points and 7.3 yards per play. Michigan of course is significantly better offensively that those aforementioned teams. The Wolverines are averaging 6.74 yards per play. Take away their slobberknocker against a stout Wisky defense and that number jumps to over 7 yards per play.
You also have to question to level of effort from Iowa moving forward. After a 5-2 start, the Hawkeyes were dismantled by Wisconsin and Penn State. The score against the Badgers (17-9) looks respectable but Iowa was outgained 423-236 (3.9-5.79 ypp). And the score and box score of the Penn State game was ugly: 41-14 loss, outgained 599-234.
The concern here is obviously Iowa's anemic offense though Michigan has gone over the total both first half and full game a number of times without the help of the opposing offense. Still, you'd like to see the Hawkeyes punch in a score. I would expect them to pull out all the stops including some new plays/looks knowing that attacking Michigan's defense in a traditional manner simply won't work.
Michigan -21.5
Fresh off a 59-3 win over Maryland, Michigan gets to travel to Iowa and take on the 5-4 Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. The Wolverines will dress in the famed pink locker rooms that will likely not have the effect that Iowa would like. Michigan is certainly the Big Ten?s best defense and possibly the nation?s. The Wolverines give up an average of just 10.7 points per game. That is tops in the country. Head coach Jim Harbaugh?s defense has held six of nine opponents to 10 points or less.
Iowa brings the type of offense that might give Michigan some trouble, but the Hawkeyes have been beaten up in consecutive weeks by ranked opponents. Tenth-ranked Wisconsin beat Iowa 17-9 and then No. 12 Penn State put a hurting on the Hawkeyes in a 41-14 defeat. As if taking on the No. 3 team in the country isn?t enough, Iowa finishes the season against ranked Nebraska on Nov. 25.
Iowa is just mediocre all the way around. Quarterback C.J. Beathard leads the offense with 1,584 yards passing and 13 touchdowns. Akrum Wadley is the leading rusher (664 yards, 8 TDs) and WR Riley McCarron leads the team in receiving yards with 378. On the other side of the ball, Michigan is also one of the nation?s best offenses. The Wolverines average nearly 48 points a game, third-best in the country. Four running backs ? De?Veon Smith, Chris Evans, Karan Higdon, and Ty Isaac ? have rushed for at least 400 yards. Quarterback Wilson Speight is extremely efficient. He is completing 64.5 percent of his passes and has 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Minnesota at Nebraska
Play: Minnesota +7
While most assume Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West the winner of this game will still have shot. Nebraska no longer controls their path with a blowout loss at Ohio State last week on the heels of the epic overtime game with Wisconsin. Tommy Armstrong had a scary injury last week which certainly had an impact in the 62-3 result and his status is unknown at this point though he appears on pace to be cleared in the concussion protocol. Minnesota doesn?t have much in terms of quality wins on the resume but the three-point loss at Penn State in a game Minnesota led most of the way is looking more impressive. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings in this series including winning in Lincoln in 2015 and only once all season have the Gophers been out-gained on the ground. The defensive numbers heavily favor the Gophers and quality wins are certainly absent for Nebraska as well despite their higher rating. A Minnesota run defense allowing just 3.3 yards per rush along with a pass defense allowing only 54 percent completions should keep the Gophers in this game. The three games in which Nebraska has been out-rushed were both losses and the miraculous home win over Oregon while Minnesota has out-rushed eight of nine foes on the season making for a very attractive heavy underdog with the Gophers 10-2 the last 12 instances as a road underdog and Nebraska on a 3-8-1 ATS home favorite run.
Hawaii (+17.5) over Boise State
Boise State's dream of an undefeated season was ruined a few weeks ago in their loss at Wyoming as the Broncos led the entire way until a late-game collapse ended their perfect season. It won't be easy for Boise State to get themselves focused and motivated following that type of defeat, and we saw proof of that last week as they struggled to beat a bad San Jose State team that they were favored by 31.5 points over. They now have to fly out to Hawaii and take care of business, which isn't an easy thing for teams to concentrate on doing, especially when they are already lacking in the very important concentration department. Hawaii started the season off playing a schedule that no CFB team should ever have to endure. Once things settled down, though, the Rainbows played much better as they won 3 of 5 games overall, and those 2 losses came in just one-possession games. They were badly embarrassed, though, last week in a no-show 55-0 loss at red hot San Diego State. That's the type of ugly defeat that should help them here in this game bring back the much-needed intensity. Look for the Rainbows to keep things closer than expected here against what is likely an unfocused favorite. Take Hawaii plus the points in this game.
Air Force (-5.5) over Colorado St
Home field has played a big part in this series. This is a rivalry up in Colorado, and the home team has won four straight and five of six meetings. Air Force has gotten the better of the Rams and has beaten Colorado State in eight of the last 10 years. The Falcons are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings against Colorado State, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four. Air Force has won back-to-back games on the road. That includes a strong game last week in a win over Army. I think that this team has some momentum and has turned things around after a downturn and three straight losses in October. Colorado State has gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. But now the books are onto them. And the public is going with the underdog here. But all the trends favor the home team, and I think that Air Force will get the job done.
LSU vs. Arkansas
Play: Under 46
Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their most impressive effort of the season in a 31-10 smack down of Florida last week. The Arkansas defense, which looked like it was asleep at the proverbial wheel the previous week in a 56-3 loss to Auburn, was over powering against the Gators, allowing just 12 rushing yards. Coach Brett Bielema used the extra time to revamp his starting 11 on the defensive side of the ball, and it looks like it worked wonders. Meanwhile, LSU lost a hard fought 10-0 decision to Alabama, but once again showcased a D, that is on par with the best of the SEC. With that said, look for a game that features alot of clock moving old fashioned grinding football.
LSU is 8-0 UNDER in all games this season. Orgeron is 16-6 UNDER L/22 after playing a game at home in all games he has coached.
All CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 like the Razorbacks - average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game have gone under 30 of 36 times in the following game.
Washington / USC Under 63.5
The Trojans are playing with revenge from a 17-12 (-17) loss at home to Washington last year which was the final game under Sarkisian. USC has won 5 straight games have been +150 yards in all 5 games. This atmosphere will really test young USC QB Sam Darnold who has been a revelation so far this season (20-3 TD-to-INT ratio). Washington QB Browning has a ridiculous 34-3 TD-to-INT ratio this season and the Huskies let out some frustration for the their initial CFB Playoff ranking last week as they dismantled Cal 66-27 (-19.5) with a 704-362 yard edge. USC has performed much better at home than on the road in the Helton era as the Trojans are just 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS on the road. Washington is 8-1 to the OVER this year which has driven up this totals? line but USC counters with 5 straight UNDERS. They've played a slower tempo under head coach Helton (UNDER is 11-4 last 15 games) and Washington is unlikely to run up the score here as they've done against the weaker teams on their schedule this season.
ARIZONA +16 over Colorado
Arizona is 1-8 against the spread and has lost six straight by ever-increasing margins. The last time we saw the Wildcats was in Washington last week where they suffered a 69-7 humiliation. We can assure you that result has heavy influence on this week?s market. It is so damn hard to pull the trigger on this 2-7 host after that loss last week but football, especially college, is all about picking the right spots and this one sets up perfectly to fade the Buffalos.
This now becomes a spot where we'll have the home dog or nothing. The Buffs are coming off an emotionally charged win over UCLA, and are staring at league contenders #25 Washington State and #15 Utah in the season's final two weeks. It will be near impossible for Colorado to watch film of Arizona's past two outings and feel threatened, yet Rich Rodriguez' teams have averaged 44 points, 590 total yards and 355 rushing yards against Colorado the past four meetings, all Arizona wins. The number has finally caught up with Ralphie and we'll credit Richrod's team with enough pride to bounce back and make a better showing this week in front of the home crowd in what -- despite the Buffaloes' gaudy record -- has to feel to the Cats' players and coaches like their most winnable game in more than a month. You rarely, if ever, should sell a major conference squad after getting humiliated the week prior. For the Buffs, this game is sandwiched between UCLA last week and Washington and Utah on deck. In other words, it?s the worst possible time to buy the Buffs and if you are buying, you would be doing so at an inflated price. No thanks to that.
California / Washington St Over 83
Offense should be a plenty here when California and Washington State meet on Saturday. Both teams love to whip the ball all over the field and will certainly take their fair share of shots down field.
The Golden Bears are putting up 40 points per game behind QB Davis Webb and what is a very impressive offense. The Golden Bears use plenty of pace as well, which is something to keep note of here as that certainly helps the cause for the Over. Defensively, things have been atrocious for Cal. They're conceding 44.4 points per game and it seems a lot worse than that even.
For the Cougars, Washington State is putting up 43.0 points per game and even sees that number fly up at home where they average 49.0 points per game. They're much better defensively than California, but they're still vulnerable to the deep ball.
Some trends to note.Over is 11-3 in Cougars last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 9-2 in Golden Bears last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Expect a lot of scores and a little defense here in this one.
The Broncos have a plethora of injuries to deal with, but they still boast two-time All-West Coast Conference guard Jared Brownridge, who is coming off a junior season in which he led the conference in scoring at 20.6 points per game. Without Feagin and Wardlow, however, they may have problems against an athletic UC Davis squad. A big backcourt advantage, thanks to Adenrele and Graham, should go to UCD. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Santa Clara is 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and 6-21 ATS in its last 27 against the Big West Conference. Look for those trends to continue.
San Antonio @ Houston
Pick: San Antonio -105
The San Antonio Spurs have come out of the Tim Duncan era and into the Kawhi Leonard era. Leonard is leading the Spurs in scoring at 26.2 points per game, but he is so much more than that stuffing the stat column with rebounding, assists, and steals, and playing solid defensively. The Spurs remain a deep and talented team, with nine players scoring five points or more per contest. They have long been able to win on the road in tough buildings, and that has been key to their success. This year San Antonio is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road as they head to Houston. The Spurs lost by two points in San Antonio to the Rockets just three days ago, so they will be on a mission tonight. The Rockets are coming off a stretch of having played seven of their last eight on the road, including their last five, and this is a tired team right now. Coach Popovich has his teams at 67-36 ATS when revenging a loss as a seven point favorite or more, so expect the Spurs to be bringing it tonight.
