07:05 PM NHL [58] New York Islanders -115
07:05 PM NHL [62] Columbus Blue Jackets -215
08:05 PM NHL [68] Saint Louis Blues -115
10:05 PM NHL [73] Minnesota Wild -160
07:05 PM NBA [506] Washington Wizards -7.5 -110
06:00 PM CBB [617] Arkansas -8.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [662] Fresno State +3-150 (B+2)
10:00 PM CBB [693] UC Davis -4.5 -150 (B+2)
10:30 PM CBB [701] UCLA -8.5 -150 (B+2)
05:30 PM CBB Added Game [726] South Dakota State -5.5 -110
1 unit bet pays 267 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators
Play: Nashville Predators -1.5 +151
If there was ever a time to snap a 5 game losing streak against the Red Wings tonight would be it. The Predators have gone 8-2-1 recently to move up the standings and are doing it at home as well winning 4 of their past 5. Rinne gets the start and is coming off a 2-0 home shutout against the Oilers. The Wings come in off a 5-4 win at home against the Islanders but have looked terrible of late away from home while allowing 22 goals their past 5 (all loses).
Coyotes / Sharks Under 5
LOVE this under here since San Jose is 5-11 to the under in home games with a total of 5 and they are 2-11 to the under after playing a division game. Arizona is 4-13 to the under in divisional games and they are 12-20 to the under when revenging a loss. The clincher here is that 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone under.
INDIANA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA
PLAY: NORTHERN IOWA -8.5
The single best decision I?ve made to date this college basketball season involved Northern Iowa. The Panthers were struggling badly at 5-11 overall and 0-5 in the MVC. But I was convinced it was just a matter of time before Ben Jacobson put the youthful pieces together. A home game with a Drake team off a big win looked like a potential bounce spot, and I decided to give UNI a roll.
Long story short, the Panthers played their best game of the season and got a very easy win. I made the decision to start riding Northern Iowa as my feeling was there would be good value on them for at least a small window moving forward.
The Panthers have now covered six straight. There was one game where playing them early saved me a loss, but the bottom line is the team has warmed up nicely. The Panthers did see their winning streak come to an end earlier this week as they were beaten at Illinois State. But even in that loss UNI did some good things, most notably a nice job of controlling the tempo and forcing the Redbirds to play at their pace.
I am staying on UNI as home chalk here. Indiana State is finally off a win, but the Sycamores are a mess and I?m not convinced an overtime win over reeling Evansville means much. The value is no longer a factor as the betting line has caught up to their recent success. But I?m playing Northern Iowa minus the points once again.
After hitting the Iona Gaels on Friday with my free play, I'm ready to improve on this 43-29-1 run with free picks, as I deliver a free winner in College Hoops tonight.
One of my free winners for Saturday is on No. 2 Baylor, which will be looking to bounce back against Kansas State, a team that not too long ago served up a stunning 79-75 victory over West Virginia.
But since then the Wildcats have lost to Iowa State, been trounced by Tennessee, and then lost to visiting TCU just this week. Now they catch an angry Baylor team that lost to No. 3 Kansas, 73-68, on Wednesday.
The Bears are going to be hungry for this win, and need it if they want to stay on track with Kansas.
Baylor is still aiming to earn a No. 1 seed in the dance next month, and running the table the rest of the way, and then in the Big 12 Tournament could get it there.
The Bears already beat Kansas State in Manhattan earlier this season, 77-68, and now they get a shot for a bigger win at home, on a Saturday, in front of a frenzied crowd in Waco.
Lay the home chalk.
5* BAYLOR
Texas +6.5
I?ve cashed 2 tickets in a row with the Longhorns and i?ll make to make it 3 straight here this afternoon. Texas has covered 8 of its last 10 games and are 4-0 ATS as road dogs in the Big 12. Coach Smart has developed this young group of talented players into a very solid team at this point in the year. They have consistently been undervalued in the marketplace and have been very profitable in this role. Largely in part to their terrific defence which has been able to slow down opposing offences. They are coming off a confidence boosting win vs. Texas Tech and this looks to me as a game in which they can be in until the final whistle. On the other side, TCU has made vast improvements under Jamie Dixon and he deserves a ton of credit. TCU squeaked out a 3 point win @ Texas just under a month ago, and I would expect another tight defensive battle today. In Big 12 play TCU is 4-5 SU & 5-4 ATS. In conference play, their 4 victories have came by; 3, 3, 6 & 7 points. This is not a team built to blow teams out and win by margin. This looks like a game that comes down to the final possession and I will back the Longhorns here once again in this underdog role which has been very profitable this season.
Oklahoma +6
Despite a rough season in the win/loss column, the Sooners continue to play hard and cover numbers. I have been fading Texas Tech recently and will do so again here tonight. Despite only being 2-7 SU in Big 12 play, the Sooners have continuously played teams tough to the final whistle. Keep an eye on OU?s Kameron McGusty, a freshman who has been tremendous for this team this season and is really coming into his own. This team is growing together, and the markets are seeing & reacting to the win/loss numbers instead of what is really going on. On the other side of this game, Texas Tech just isn?t a team that I can lay any type of price with. Their 3 wins in the Big 12 this year have come by; 1, 1 and 6 points. They are in the bottom half of the Big 12 in most offensive and defensive statistical categories. I see no reason for them to be laying -6.5 here in a game that should come down to the final whistle.
Fresno State Pk
Its all about the number in this one for me, I think this number is short and Fresno should be laying about -3 here. Plain and simple, the Aztecs have been awful on the road this season, going 1-6 SU, their only win being @ UNLV. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs from Fresno have been a point spread machine going 12-5 ATS this season and have a 10-1 SU home record. SDSU is way down this season and I think there has been a recency bias attached to their name that has resulted in a 6-11 ATS record this year. Fresno has gone 5-0 ATS in this series, winning 3 of those games outright. The difference this year is that SDSU isn?t as good as those recent years and I think Fresno State is better than they were. I?m getting the equal or slightly better team at a pk price, at home, against a team who has struggled on the road all season, sign me up.
Arizona +3
To me, Arizona is the most dangerous team in the Pac 12 and now that they are healthy, this looks like a final 4 team to me. The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & ATS on the road in Pac-12 play this year. The lost both games to the Ducks last year, including an OT loss in this building. I think this is a spot that they can seek out some revenge and break through on the road. Arizona now has the size and versatility with their bigs that can cause some issues for the Oregon defence. If you haven?t seen Lauri Markkanen, the 7 foot freshman for Arizona pay yet this season, I suggest tuning in tonight. He is a matchup nightmare who can step out and knock down threes. This should pull some of Oregons size out of the lane and open up some opportunities for Arizona to get to the rim. Obviously Oregon is a great team with a great home court, they are 14-0 SU on this floor this year. The concern for the Ducks is the health of Dillon Brooks who has been battling a foot issue all season long. He has been held out of practice this week and should be good to go for this game. But, this isn?t the NFL where stars miss practice and can come in on Sundays and perform. These are college kids who need the continuity and the chemistry to build throughout the season. Maybe looking ahead, Oregon has look shaky in their last 2 games, loosing @ Colorado by 9 and squeaking out a 1 point home win vs. Arizona State. The Ducks just aren?t passing the eye test for me right now. Arizona is the better team, in better health, and in better form and they can win this game outright.
USC / Washington State Over 149
How this number isn?t in the low 150?s is beyond me. With Boatright back in the lineup for the Trojans, this offence is about to take off. They have scored 82, 82, 84 in their last 3 games and I see no reason why they shouldn?t be able to hit 85 here against a putrid Wazzou defence. The Cougars have opened up the floor in their past few games scoring; 79, 79, 91(OT), 94 points. With a fully healthy line-up at his disposal, expect Trojans head coach Andy Enfield to open things up and let his horses run. I think USC will be able to dictate pace and get to the rim at will against Wazzou. As long as Wzzou can come up with 70pts this game is going to be well within the 150?s. I?ll take a shot with the Over.
Xavier vs. Creighton
Play: Creighton -3?
It took a few games for the Jays to find their rhythm after losing Mo Watson, Jr., to injury. But freshman Davion Mintz is now battle tested and the highly touted underclassmen played well in a win at Butler last time out. Tyler Clement also showed savvy at the point, while Justin Patton looked as comfortable as he's been since the Watson injury. Marcus Foster has reeled-in his game, averaging 18 ppg and staying under control. Meanwhile, Xavier will is now the team learning to play without a star player. Edmond Sumner has been lost for the season after averaging 15 ppg and delivering 105 assists. Like Watson was to CU, Sumner was the straw that stirred the drink for the Musketeers. Xavier is on a 1-6 ATS slide and they have failed to cover four straight on the road. Meanwhile, Creighton is on a 6-0 ATS run in the series and 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games, overall.
Texas State vs. Texas-Arlington
Pick: Texas-Arlington
Off an outright loss at Coastal Carolina, TX-Arlington returns home Saturday, where they have yet to drop a game all season. They're favored by a decent amount, but it's a revenge spot against a Texas State team that simply isn't very good. Sure, the underdog Bobcats were able to get the Mavericks in their gym back on January 7th. But that 81-73 win (as 8.5-pt dogs) saw them shoot 55% from the floor, a performance highly unlikely to be duplicated this afternoon. Lay the points.
TX-Arlington averages 88.6 points per game at home, making it an average margin of victory of 22 PPG here. They fell just two points short Monday at Coastal Carolina. Full disclosure, I faded the Mavs in that spot. But, again, it was on the road. They had previously won three straight games by 16 or more points. Remember what I said earlier about the unlikelihood of Texas State repeating their hot shooting of the first matchup? Well, at home, TX-Arlington is permitting only a 38.3 FG%.
This will be Texas State's third straight road game. Surprisingly, they've won the first two. They won by two at Coastal Carolina last Saturday and then again at Appalachian State on Monday (as short favorites). But even w/ four wins in their last five games, including three straight, I don't trust this team. This line speaks volumes given that both teams have 6-3 SU records in Sun Belt play. TX-Arlington has yet to win a SBC home game by fewer than 15 points.
Washington State +7?
The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the Pac-12 this season. That is clearly evidenced by the fact that they have gone 7-3 ATS in Pac-12 play this year. They are consistently overlooked by the oddsmakers and betting public, and they have put together a respectable 4-6 SU record in league play as well.
USC comes in overvalued off three straight victories, including a recent home upset of UCLA as 7-point dogs. The Trojans then followed that up with an 82-74 win at Washington as 1.5-point favorites, covering the spread in both contests. But now they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road here to the Cougars.
The Trojans have played five true road games in Pac-12 play this season, and they have only won one of those games by at least 8 points, which was the victory over Washington. They failed to cover as 12-point favorites in a 7-point win at Oregon State, they were blown out by both Oregon (by 21) and Utah (by 22), and were fortunate to beat Colorado (by 3).
USC is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. USC is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. The Trojans are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Auburn vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -6?
It has been an up and down season for Auburn which opened the season 10-2 in non-conference action but has been unable to find any consistency in the SEC. The Tigers fell to 3-6 in the conference with a 10-point home loss to Tennessee on Tuesday which snapped a two-game home winning streak. They have gone just 1-3 on the road in the SEC with the lone victory coming against 0-9 Missouri and the three losses coming by 29, 20 and 19 points. Auburn hits the road again and is in a very bad spot. Alabama is coming off a horrible loss at Arkansas on Wednesday by 19 points and while the Razorbacks are a solid team, a blowout loss was unexpected. Alabama has lost consecutive games only twice this season as it is 6-1 following a defeat, the lone setback coming at Oregon back in December. While this rivalry is more about football than basketball, the Crimson Tide will no doubt be ready for this one and adding to that is the fact they lost at Auburn by 20 points two weeks ago so they will be out for some serious payback. Alabama has won seven straight home meetings against the Tigers. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 while the Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record.
Connecticut vs. Cincinnati
Play: Connecticut +12?
I really like the value here with the Huskies as a double-digit underdog against the Bearcats. These two schools have quite a history on the hardwood and most of the recent meetings have come right down to the wire. In fact, 11 of the last 12 games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.
The key here is that we are getting an inflated line with Cincinnati, who comes in having won 13 straight, which includes a perfect 9-0 start to AAC play. Connecticut doesn't have one of it's better teams this year, as they are just 10-11 overall, but they have been playing much better of late. They come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 7 overall. Bearcats are just 13-27 ATS in their last 40 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, 2-10 ATS over their last 3 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of their last 4 and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 65 or less points in back-to-back games.
Illinois State at Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -10.5
Shockers? big man Markis McDuffie is currently the team?s leading scorer and rebounder in averaging 12.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Due to foul trouble, he was more or less taken out of the first meeting, and his overall body of work suffered greatly because of it. He ended up scoring just 11 points and reeled in just 4 rebounds over the course of his 23 minutes of action. With this game now at home and the Redbirds down a big man, look for McDuffie to have a much bigger impact on this game.
With the Redbirds winning each of their first 11 conference games and entering this tilt atop the conference standings, most will take double and triple takes when they see ISU installed double-digit underdogs. Don?t fall for the trap! Illinois State is nowhere near as good as its record indicates, and the MVC as a whole is way down this season.
The current conference leaders have pulled off some great escapes on the true road, while Wichita State has buried all that?s gotten in their way away from their home court save for the Redbirds. Though the Shockers have had issues in this rivalry of late in going 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS the L/4 meetings, they?ve won each of the L/9 times they hosted the Redbirds and will be out to even this series up. I expect them to do just that in front of their rabid fan base, and do so emphatically!
UCSB +6 over UC Davis
We are going to continue our assault against UC Davis for a number of reasons. First, spotting road points in the Big West is bad strategy that has proven to be a risky venture. This one is no different. Davis has had only two days to sort themselves out after losing to Cal Poly so we have yet to see what Davis team takes the floor in Santa Barbara and what effect the loss had on their psyche. Prior to the two combatants meeting a month ago on Davis? floor, the Gauchos owned a four-game winning streak against the Aggies and also winning six of their previous seven overall. The Aggies snapped this era of dominance with authority when they rolled the Gauchos 73-47 as an 8?-point home favorite on January 4th. That result certainly has influence on how this market will proceed but we see it as fool?s gold. When you toss in that the Gauchos have lost their previous five overall, UCSB seems like prime pickins for Davis. However, Davis likely entered that previous meeting in a different state of mind. This was a basketball on the come-up looking to dispatch a conference foe that seemingly had their number. Now, Davis is the team everyone is looking to beat and since ascending to this role, the Aggies have appeared unprepared to be ?Kings of the Hill?.
For those citing UCSB?s skid as rationale to stay clear of the Gauchos, we remind you that Cal Poly was on a hideous skid before they knocked off UC Irvine. The Gauchos being on a skid may actually be an understatement, as they have lost five straight, eight of nine and have just three lousy wins all year. UCSB?s last four losses have been by 10, 21, 22 and 26 points respectively. However, the Gauchos played a difficult non-conference schedule that was ranked 33rd toughest in the country and that included games against USC, UCLA, SMU, Nevada and Omaha among others. UC Davis? out of conference SOS ranked 197th. That said, we?re not going to sugarcoat this is any way. The Gauchos are a weak team that has one lousy conference win in one of the weakest conferences in the country. However, we also are able to recognize when a teams? stock has hit rock bottom and when that occurs, inflated points follow. That is 100% the case here so when inflated points are offered, it is our duty to grab them and let the chips fall where they may.
WASHINGTON -7.5 over New Orleans
The Wizards failed to cover on Thursday night at home against the Lakers, snapping a 10-game ATS run. But this is still a team that?s absolutely red-hot, going 10-1 both SU and ATS in its last 11 games, including a 107-94 rout at New Orleans last week. In fact, Washington has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series and tonight they catch a tired Pelicans team that?s playing its third road game in five days. Also, New Orleans allows 106.5 points per game and Washington has covered 64% of its games this season against teams that give up more than 100 a game, including a 9-1 ATS run in its last 10 games in that situation. Lay the home favorite.
Orlando vs. Atlanta
Play: Under 208
Orlando heads out on the road with a weak offense, #27 in points scored, #25 in field goal shooting. The Under is 28-7 in the Magic's last 35 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Atlanta is home, top 8 in the league in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 5-1 when the Hawks face a team with a winning percentage below .400. the Under is 37-15 in the last 52 meetings, including 22-6 under the total at Atlanta.
Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Miami -8
A perfect 9-0 SU/ATS their last nine, the Heat are arguably the hottest team in the league right now. That streak will likely come to an end soon, as they'll embark on a road trip after this game. However, they should be able to extend it for at least one more day.
I successfully played against the 76ers in each of their last two games, as they lost by 18 and 16 points. At the time, I noted that their "make-up game" against Sacramento last Monday had provided them with an especially difficult schedule. While they've had a day off, they're still playing their eighth game in the past 12 days here.
The well-rested Heat should have some added incentive to keep their streak going as the 76ers defeated them earlier in the season. They're 13-6 ATS against teams with a losing record on the season and have won each of their last four games by a minimum of eight points. Consider Miami.
Hornets vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -7?
The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.
07:05 PM NHL [62] Columbus Blue Jackets -215
08:05 PM NHL [68] Saint Louis Blues -115
10:05 PM NHL [73] Minnesota Wild -160
07:05 PM NBA [506] Washington Wizards -7.5 -110
06:00 PM CBB [617] Arkansas -8.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [662] Fresno State +3-150 (B+2)
10:00 PM CBB [693] UC Davis -4.5 -150 (B+2)
10:30 PM CBB [701] UCLA -8.5 -150 (B+2)
05:30 PM CBB Added Game [726] South Dakota State -5.5 -110
1 unit bet pays 267 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators
Play: Nashville Predators -1.5 +151
If there was ever a time to snap a 5 game losing streak against the Red Wings tonight would be it. The Predators have gone 8-2-1 recently to move up the standings and are doing it at home as well winning 4 of their past 5. Rinne gets the start and is coming off a 2-0 home shutout against the Oilers. The Wings come in off a 5-4 win at home against the Islanders but have looked terrible of late away from home while allowing 22 goals their past 5 (all loses).
Coyotes / Sharks Under 5
LOVE this under here since San Jose is 5-11 to the under in home games with a total of 5 and they are 2-11 to the under after playing a division game. Arizona is 4-13 to the under in divisional games and they are 12-20 to the under when revenging a loss. The clincher here is that 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone under.
INDIANA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA
PLAY: NORTHERN IOWA -8.5
The single best decision I?ve made to date this college basketball season involved Northern Iowa. The Panthers were struggling badly at 5-11 overall and 0-5 in the MVC. But I was convinced it was just a matter of time before Ben Jacobson put the youthful pieces together. A home game with a Drake team off a big win looked like a potential bounce spot, and I decided to give UNI a roll.
Long story short, the Panthers played their best game of the season and got a very easy win. I made the decision to start riding Northern Iowa as my feeling was there would be good value on them for at least a small window moving forward.
The Panthers have now covered six straight. There was one game where playing them early saved me a loss, but the bottom line is the team has warmed up nicely. The Panthers did see their winning streak come to an end earlier this week as they were beaten at Illinois State. But even in that loss UNI did some good things, most notably a nice job of controlling the tempo and forcing the Redbirds to play at their pace.
I am staying on UNI as home chalk here. Indiana State is finally off a win, but the Sycamores are a mess and I?m not convinced an overtime win over reeling Evansville means much. The value is no longer a factor as the betting line has caught up to their recent success. But I?m playing Northern Iowa minus the points once again.
After hitting the Iona Gaels on Friday with my free play, I'm ready to improve on this 43-29-1 run with free picks, as I deliver a free winner in College Hoops tonight.
One of my free winners for Saturday is on No. 2 Baylor, which will be looking to bounce back against Kansas State, a team that not too long ago served up a stunning 79-75 victory over West Virginia.
But since then the Wildcats have lost to Iowa State, been trounced by Tennessee, and then lost to visiting TCU just this week. Now they catch an angry Baylor team that lost to No. 3 Kansas, 73-68, on Wednesday.
The Bears are going to be hungry for this win, and need it if they want to stay on track with Kansas.
Baylor is still aiming to earn a No. 1 seed in the dance next month, and running the table the rest of the way, and then in the Big 12 Tournament could get it there.
The Bears already beat Kansas State in Manhattan earlier this season, 77-68, and now they get a shot for a bigger win at home, on a Saturday, in front of a frenzied crowd in Waco.
Lay the home chalk.
5* BAYLOR
Texas +6.5
I?ve cashed 2 tickets in a row with the Longhorns and i?ll make to make it 3 straight here this afternoon. Texas has covered 8 of its last 10 games and are 4-0 ATS as road dogs in the Big 12. Coach Smart has developed this young group of talented players into a very solid team at this point in the year. They have consistently been undervalued in the marketplace and have been very profitable in this role. Largely in part to their terrific defence which has been able to slow down opposing offences. They are coming off a confidence boosting win vs. Texas Tech and this looks to me as a game in which they can be in until the final whistle. On the other side, TCU has made vast improvements under Jamie Dixon and he deserves a ton of credit. TCU squeaked out a 3 point win @ Texas just under a month ago, and I would expect another tight defensive battle today. In Big 12 play TCU is 4-5 SU & 5-4 ATS. In conference play, their 4 victories have came by; 3, 3, 6 & 7 points. This is not a team built to blow teams out and win by margin. This looks like a game that comes down to the final possession and I will back the Longhorns here once again in this underdog role which has been very profitable this season.
Oklahoma +6
Despite a rough season in the win/loss column, the Sooners continue to play hard and cover numbers. I have been fading Texas Tech recently and will do so again here tonight. Despite only being 2-7 SU in Big 12 play, the Sooners have continuously played teams tough to the final whistle. Keep an eye on OU?s Kameron McGusty, a freshman who has been tremendous for this team this season and is really coming into his own. This team is growing together, and the markets are seeing & reacting to the win/loss numbers instead of what is really going on. On the other side of this game, Texas Tech just isn?t a team that I can lay any type of price with. Their 3 wins in the Big 12 this year have come by; 1, 1 and 6 points. They are in the bottom half of the Big 12 in most offensive and defensive statistical categories. I see no reason for them to be laying -6.5 here in a game that should come down to the final whistle.
Fresno State Pk
Its all about the number in this one for me, I think this number is short and Fresno should be laying about -3 here. Plain and simple, the Aztecs have been awful on the road this season, going 1-6 SU, their only win being @ UNLV. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs from Fresno have been a point spread machine going 12-5 ATS this season and have a 10-1 SU home record. SDSU is way down this season and I think there has been a recency bias attached to their name that has resulted in a 6-11 ATS record this year. Fresno has gone 5-0 ATS in this series, winning 3 of those games outright. The difference this year is that SDSU isn?t as good as those recent years and I think Fresno State is better than they were. I?m getting the equal or slightly better team at a pk price, at home, against a team who has struggled on the road all season, sign me up.
Arizona +3
To me, Arizona is the most dangerous team in the Pac 12 and now that they are healthy, this looks like a final 4 team to me. The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & ATS on the road in Pac-12 play this year. The lost both games to the Ducks last year, including an OT loss in this building. I think this is a spot that they can seek out some revenge and break through on the road. Arizona now has the size and versatility with their bigs that can cause some issues for the Oregon defence. If you haven?t seen Lauri Markkanen, the 7 foot freshman for Arizona pay yet this season, I suggest tuning in tonight. He is a matchup nightmare who can step out and knock down threes. This should pull some of Oregons size out of the lane and open up some opportunities for Arizona to get to the rim. Obviously Oregon is a great team with a great home court, they are 14-0 SU on this floor this year. The concern for the Ducks is the health of Dillon Brooks who has been battling a foot issue all season long. He has been held out of practice this week and should be good to go for this game. But, this isn?t the NFL where stars miss practice and can come in on Sundays and perform. These are college kids who need the continuity and the chemistry to build throughout the season. Maybe looking ahead, Oregon has look shaky in their last 2 games, loosing @ Colorado by 9 and squeaking out a 1 point home win vs. Arizona State. The Ducks just aren?t passing the eye test for me right now. Arizona is the better team, in better health, and in better form and they can win this game outright.
USC / Washington State Over 149
How this number isn?t in the low 150?s is beyond me. With Boatright back in the lineup for the Trojans, this offence is about to take off. They have scored 82, 82, 84 in their last 3 games and I see no reason why they shouldn?t be able to hit 85 here against a putrid Wazzou defence. The Cougars have opened up the floor in their past few games scoring; 79, 79, 91(OT), 94 points. With a fully healthy line-up at his disposal, expect Trojans head coach Andy Enfield to open things up and let his horses run. I think USC will be able to dictate pace and get to the rim at will against Wazzou. As long as Wzzou can come up with 70pts this game is going to be well within the 150?s. I?ll take a shot with the Over.
Xavier vs. Creighton
Play: Creighton -3?
It took a few games for the Jays to find their rhythm after losing Mo Watson, Jr., to injury. But freshman Davion Mintz is now battle tested and the highly touted underclassmen played well in a win at Butler last time out. Tyler Clement also showed savvy at the point, while Justin Patton looked as comfortable as he's been since the Watson injury. Marcus Foster has reeled-in his game, averaging 18 ppg and staying under control. Meanwhile, Xavier will is now the team learning to play without a star player. Edmond Sumner has been lost for the season after averaging 15 ppg and delivering 105 assists. Like Watson was to CU, Sumner was the straw that stirred the drink for the Musketeers. Xavier is on a 1-6 ATS slide and they have failed to cover four straight on the road. Meanwhile, Creighton is on a 6-0 ATS run in the series and 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games, overall.
Texas State vs. Texas-Arlington
Pick: Texas-Arlington
Off an outright loss at Coastal Carolina, TX-Arlington returns home Saturday, where they have yet to drop a game all season. They're favored by a decent amount, but it's a revenge spot against a Texas State team that simply isn't very good. Sure, the underdog Bobcats were able to get the Mavericks in their gym back on January 7th. But that 81-73 win (as 8.5-pt dogs) saw them shoot 55% from the floor, a performance highly unlikely to be duplicated this afternoon. Lay the points.
TX-Arlington averages 88.6 points per game at home, making it an average margin of victory of 22 PPG here. They fell just two points short Monday at Coastal Carolina. Full disclosure, I faded the Mavs in that spot. But, again, it was on the road. They had previously won three straight games by 16 or more points. Remember what I said earlier about the unlikelihood of Texas State repeating their hot shooting of the first matchup? Well, at home, TX-Arlington is permitting only a 38.3 FG%.
This will be Texas State's third straight road game. Surprisingly, they've won the first two. They won by two at Coastal Carolina last Saturday and then again at Appalachian State on Monday (as short favorites). But even w/ four wins in their last five games, including three straight, I don't trust this team. This line speaks volumes given that both teams have 6-3 SU records in Sun Belt play. TX-Arlington has yet to win a SBC home game by fewer than 15 points.
Washington State +7?
The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the Pac-12 this season. That is clearly evidenced by the fact that they have gone 7-3 ATS in Pac-12 play this year. They are consistently overlooked by the oddsmakers and betting public, and they have put together a respectable 4-6 SU record in league play as well.
USC comes in overvalued off three straight victories, including a recent home upset of UCLA as 7-point dogs. The Trojans then followed that up with an 82-74 win at Washington as 1.5-point favorites, covering the spread in both contests. But now they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road here to the Cougars.
The Trojans have played five true road games in Pac-12 play this season, and they have only won one of those games by at least 8 points, which was the victory over Washington. They failed to cover as 12-point favorites in a 7-point win at Oregon State, they were blown out by both Oregon (by 21) and Utah (by 22), and were fortunate to beat Colorado (by 3).
USC is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. USC is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. The Trojans are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Auburn vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -6?
It has been an up and down season for Auburn which opened the season 10-2 in non-conference action but has been unable to find any consistency in the SEC. The Tigers fell to 3-6 in the conference with a 10-point home loss to Tennessee on Tuesday which snapped a two-game home winning streak. They have gone just 1-3 on the road in the SEC with the lone victory coming against 0-9 Missouri and the three losses coming by 29, 20 and 19 points. Auburn hits the road again and is in a very bad spot. Alabama is coming off a horrible loss at Arkansas on Wednesday by 19 points and while the Razorbacks are a solid team, a blowout loss was unexpected. Alabama has lost consecutive games only twice this season as it is 6-1 following a defeat, the lone setback coming at Oregon back in December. While this rivalry is more about football than basketball, the Crimson Tide will no doubt be ready for this one and adding to that is the fact they lost at Auburn by 20 points two weeks ago so they will be out for some serious payback. Alabama has won seven straight home meetings against the Tigers. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 while the Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record.
Connecticut vs. Cincinnati
Play: Connecticut +12?
I really like the value here with the Huskies as a double-digit underdog against the Bearcats. These two schools have quite a history on the hardwood and most of the recent meetings have come right down to the wire. In fact, 11 of the last 12 games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.
The key here is that we are getting an inflated line with Cincinnati, who comes in having won 13 straight, which includes a perfect 9-0 start to AAC play. Connecticut doesn't have one of it's better teams this year, as they are just 10-11 overall, but they have been playing much better of late. They come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 7 overall. Bearcats are just 13-27 ATS in their last 40 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, 2-10 ATS over their last 3 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of their last 4 and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 65 or less points in back-to-back games.
Illinois State at Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -10.5
Shockers? big man Markis McDuffie is currently the team?s leading scorer and rebounder in averaging 12.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Due to foul trouble, he was more or less taken out of the first meeting, and his overall body of work suffered greatly because of it. He ended up scoring just 11 points and reeled in just 4 rebounds over the course of his 23 minutes of action. With this game now at home and the Redbirds down a big man, look for McDuffie to have a much bigger impact on this game.
With the Redbirds winning each of their first 11 conference games and entering this tilt atop the conference standings, most will take double and triple takes when they see ISU installed double-digit underdogs. Don?t fall for the trap! Illinois State is nowhere near as good as its record indicates, and the MVC as a whole is way down this season.
The current conference leaders have pulled off some great escapes on the true road, while Wichita State has buried all that?s gotten in their way away from their home court save for the Redbirds. Though the Shockers have had issues in this rivalry of late in going 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS the L/4 meetings, they?ve won each of the L/9 times they hosted the Redbirds and will be out to even this series up. I expect them to do just that in front of their rabid fan base, and do so emphatically!
UCSB +6 over UC Davis
We are going to continue our assault against UC Davis for a number of reasons. First, spotting road points in the Big West is bad strategy that has proven to be a risky venture. This one is no different. Davis has had only two days to sort themselves out after losing to Cal Poly so we have yet to see what Davis team takes the floor in Santa Barbara and what effect the loss had on their psyche. Prior to the two combatants meeting a month ago on Davis? floor, the Gauchos owned a four-game winning streak against the Aggies and also winning six of their previous seven overall. The Aggies snapped this era of dominance with authority when they rolled the Gauchos 73-47 as an 8?-point home favorite on January 4th. That result certainly has influence on how this market will proceed but we see it as fool?s gold. When you toss in that the Gauchos have lost their previous five overall, UCSB seems like prime pickins for Davis. However, Davis likely entered that previous meeting in a different state of mind. This was a basketball on the come-up looking to dispatch a conference foe that seemingly had their number. Now, Davis is the team everyone is looking to beat and since ascending to this role, the Aggies have appeared unprepared to be ?Kings of the Hill?.
For those citing UCSB?s skid as rationale to stay clear of the Gauchos, we remind you that Cal Poly was on a hideous skid before they knocked off UC Irvine. The Gauchos being on a skid may actually be an understatement, as they have lost five straight, eight of nine and have just three lousy wins all year. UCSB?s last four losses have been by 10, 21, 22 and 26 points respectively. However, the Gauchos played a difficult non-conference schedule that was ranked 33rd toughest in the country and that included games against USC, UCLA, SMU, Nevada and Omaha among others. UC Davis? out of conference SOS ranked 197th. That said, we?re not going to sugarcoat this is any way. The Gauchos are a weak team that has one lousy conference win in one of the weakest conferences in the country. However, we also are able to recognize when a teams? stock has hit rock bottom and when that occurs, inflated points follow. That is 100% the case here so when inflated points are offered, it is our duty to grab them and let the chips fall where they may.
WASHINGTON -7.5 over New Orleans
The Wizards failed to cover on Thursday night at home against the Lakers, snapping a 10-game ATS run. But this is still a team that?s absolutely red-hot, going 10-1 both SU and ATS in its last 11 games, including a 107-94 rout at New Orleans last week. In fact, Washington has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series and tonight they catch a tired Pelicans team that?s playing its third road game in five days. Also, New Orleans allows 106.5 points per game and Washington has covered 64% of its games this season against teams that give up more than 100 a game, including a 9-1 ATS run in its last 10 games in that situation. Lay the home favorite.
Orlando vs. Atlanta
Play: Under 208
Orlando heads out on the road with a weak offense, #27 in points scored, #25 in field goal shooting. The Under is 28-7 in the Magic's last 35 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Atlanta is home, top 8 in the league in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 5-1 when the Hawks face a team with a winning percentage below .400. the Under is 37-15 in the last 52 meetings, including 22-6 under the total at Atlanta.
Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Miami -8
A perfect 9-0 SU/ATS their last nine, the Heat are arguably the hottest team in the league right now. That streak will likely come to an end soon, as they'll embark on a road trip after this game. However, they should be able to extend it for at least one more day.
I successfully played against the 76ers in each of their last two games, as they lost by 18 and 16 points. At the time, I noted that their "make-up game" against Sacramento last Monday had provided them with an especially difficult schedule. While they've had a day off, they're still playing their eighth game in the past 12 days here.
The well-rested Heat should have some added incentive to keep their streak going as the 76ers defeated them earlier in the season. They're 13-6 ATS against teams with a losing record on the season and have won each of their last four games by a minimum of eight points. Consider Miami.
Hornets vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -7?
The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.
