Coca-Cola 600: Edwards and Busch Dominate
By Brian Gabrielle
Carl Edwards couldn't quite come all the way back in our last Nascar program (2 weeks ago). He started 36th at Darlington, languished at the back of the field for much of the night, then came alive and finished second. Not quite good enough for a straight-up win, but he did take his head-to-head match-up against Jimmie Johnson, which made it a winning week for us. For the week, we profited 0.37 units on 1.5 units wagered, a return of 24.7%. For the season, we've profited 7.29 units on 15.5 units wagered, a return of 47.0%, and we've given you winning weeks in 10 of 11 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost 2.13 units on four units wagered, but for the season, that would still leave you with a profit of 23.33 units on 43 units wagered, a return of 54.3%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Carl Edwards (+600), 1/6th unit. On Sunday afternoon, the Sprint Cup drivers will undergo their longest test of the season, in the 600-mile race at Charlotte. It's a grueling affair on a super-fast cookie-cutter intermediate speedway of the type that Edwards dominated earlier in the season. He won at Texas, and he had Atlanta won before blowing his engine very late, with a big lead. Edwards will start 30th on Sunday, which isn't good, but as he showed at Darlington, it ain't just about where you start. I still think he'll have enough to come from the back to the front at this downforce track, and post a victory. He's got five top-10s at Charlotte in six Cup races here.
Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. Busch is the heavy favorite, and with good reason. He won at Atlanta and was third at Texas, and had the fastest car last Saturday night in the All-Star race, before blowing an engine. He also happened to lay down the fastest qualifying lap this Thursday, and so will start Sunday from the pole. Busch is erratic as all get out, but that Toyota horsepower is definitely serving him well. He'll be right there at the end.
Take Tony Stewart (+1200), 1/6th unit. Hm, I guess we aren't too concerned about starting positions this week, eh? Stewart will start 31st, one spot behind Edwards, but I expect that Busch's older teammate will be a threat. He had the best car at the end of this race last season, but lost in a fuel-mileage gambit to Casey Mears. Smoke finished second to Busch in Atlanta and seventh in Texas. Plus these are some seriously tasty odds for a driver this good, who's being penalized both for a poor qualifying effort and a first-lap wreck at Darlington two weeks ago, which makes him look like he's slumping.
In this week's head-to-head match-up, take Kyle Busch over Jimmie Johnson (-150), 1 unit. I don't know what's the bigger heresy here: the fact that Shrub is this big a favorite over the guy whose hood bears the same name as this week's track, or that I'm actually taking Busch. Johnson has five career wins in Charlotte, and 11 top-10 finishes in his last 12 races at this place. And I'm taking Kyle? Well, the logic goes like this: J.J. hasn't found everything he needs in his downforce program in the Car of Tomorrow just yet, while Busch is the hottest driver on the circuit. The thing we have to hope for here is that the erratic young driver of the No. 18 keeps his cool all night; if he does, I think he walks away with this match-up easy. If he doesn't, well, we're in trouble, because Johnson will certainly be close enough to pick up the pieces.
