Saturday Service Plays 9/20/2008

madking

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Aug 27, 2008
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SERVICE: Mrmartingale

Series 1: Fri 19th thru Sun 21st

Bet #1796: Sep 19: WNBA: Detroit - Indiana
Indiana win (2.27)

Bet #1797: Sep 19: MLB: Seattle - Oakland
Pitchers: List Hernandez & Eveland
Seattle win (2.16)

Bet #1798: Sep 20: NCAAF: Troy - Ohio St
Troy win (10.40)

Bet #1799: Sep 20: NCAAF: Virginia Tech - North Carolina
Virgnia Tech win (2.40)

Bet #1800: Sep 20: NCAAF: Toledo - Fresno St
Fresno St -7 (1.91)

Bet #1801: Sep 21: NFL: Carolina - Minnesota
Carolina +3.5 (1.91)

Bet #1802: Sep 21: NFL: Pittsburgh - Philadelphia
Philadelphia -3.5 (1.91)


SERIES 2: Fri 19th thru Sun 21st

Bet #399: Sep 19: MLB: Philadelphia - Florida
Pitchers: List Johnson & Myers
Florida win (2.22)

Bet #400: Sep 19: MLB: San Francisco - LA Dodgers
Pitchers: Maddux & Zito
LA Dodgers -1.5 (2.17)

Bet #401: Sep 20: NCAAF: NC State - East Carolina
NC State win (3.43)

Bet #402: Sep 20: NCAAF: Rutgers - Navy
Navy win (2.90)

Bet #403: Sep 20: NCAAF: Kent St - UL Lafayette
Kent St win (2.18)

Bet #404: Sep 21: NFL: Arizona - Washington
Arizona win (2.58)

Bet #405: Sep 21: NFL: Cleveland - Baltimore
Baltimore -3 (2.00)

Bet #406: Sep 21: NFL: Cleveland - Baltimore
Green Bay win (2.47)

--------------------------

This guy plays using a modified version of martingale system. I dont use the martingale progression. I just play his picks straight up for equal amounts on all games because he always picks underdog odds and his hitting just above 50% which is very good for dog odds, especially in series to where he is hitting 54%. But if you want to use the system read below. copy paste from his site:

System Summary

I will avoid all mathematical explanation using sequence, series and functions etc in order to make it understandable to everyone--instead I will use simple words and numbers to tell you what exactly to do. In this modified version we will use 2.1 factor after each loss instead of 2 (doubling up) and set the boundary to 6 instead of infinity. Lets say the starting bet amount = 1 Unit = U. Then using 2.1 factor after each loss we get the following sequence of bet amounts:

Bet 1 = U
Bet 2 = U(2.1)2 = 2.1U
Bet 3 = U(2.1)3 = 4.41U
Bet 4 = U(2.1)4 = 9.26U
Bet 5 = U(2.1)5 = 19.45U
Bet 6 = U(2.1)6 = 40.84U
Total (Bankroll) = U + U(2.1)2 + U(2.1)3 + U(2.1)4 + U(2.1)5 = 77.06U. Therefore, this system requires a 77.06 Units of bankroll if you are to do 1 unit bets.

Tip for dummies: If you have a certain bankroll (lets say ?1000) and want to calculate the starting bet amount, divide the bankroll by 77.06 (so the starting bet amount is 1000/77.06=?12.98). On the other hand, if you want to calculate the required bankroll for a certain starting bet amount, multiply your starting bet amount by 77.06 (for example, if you want to do ?15 bets, you would require a bankroll of ?15*77.06= ?1155.9)

A failed session (6 bet losing streak) would cost us 77.06 units. Therefore, a successful session is when we gain 77.06 units without losing 6 in a row.

Rules of the system:

Bet only on events with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Do not randomly pick games with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Always handicap the game and find the edge--play the side that has a win estimation of 50% or better. Best way to maximize profit is to bet on good underdog odds with a win estimation of 50% or better.
All bet amounts are for "risk", i.e. use the unit amount given in the bet table (bet1=1unit, bet 2=2.1units, bet3=4.41units, bet4=9.26units, bet5=19.45units, bet6=40.84units) regardless of the odd.
Bet on the next game only after you are sure about the result of the previous bet. Whenever a bet wins, the next bet amount is bet 1 (1 unit). Whenever a bet is cancelled or voided, repeat the same bet amount on the next bet. Whenever a bet loses, use the progression until you win. If you ever encounter a six game losing streak, start over with a new bankroll.
Do not change your unit amount until you have completed a successful session. For example, if you start at 1 unit = ?10 with a bankroll of ?770.60, you should remain at 1 unit = ?10 until your bankroll is doubled (1 successful session). Now that you have double the capital, you may increase your unit size to ?20 or you may withdraw half your earnings and increase your unit size to ?15. Once you start with the increased unit size and bankroll, you should wait until you complete a successful session with the new unit size and bankroll before increasing it again. It is recommended that you select a desired unit amount and stick to it forever instead of increasing it after each successful session--increasing strategy is for those who don't have big bankroll to start right away at big unit size. It is highly recommended that you go no more than 1 unit = ?100.
Play only at safe and reliable sportsbooks.
Never randomly pick a game. Always cap your games and play only valuable bets with good odds. It is highly recommended that you use my picks to minimize risk and to maximize profit. My picks for the MrMartingale System for one of the series is yet to fail.

System Picks SERIES 1 Record as of sep 17th

Started: September 2006
Staking Style: MrMartingale System
Bet Results: 845-831-119 (50.42%)
Number of failures: 4
System Record: 845-4 (99.53%)
Net profit after deductions: +930.86 Units
Longest Losing Streak: 8 (1 time), 6 (4 times)
Longest Winning Streak: 5 (8 times)


System Picks SERIES 2 Record as of sep 17th

Started: January 2008
Staking Style: MrMartingale System
Bet Results: 202-171-26 (54.16%)
Number of failures: 0
System Record: 202-0 (100%)
Net Profit: +301.82 Units
Longest Losing Streak: 5 (2 times)
Longest Winning Streak: 5 (2 times)
 

madking

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Aug 27, 2008
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SERVICE: Mrmartingale

Bet #1798: Sep 20: NCAAF: Troy - Ohio St
Troy win (10.40)


I normally put $500 flat on all his plays but i put only $50 on this one. I put the other $450 on troy +21

If troy wins straight up, i am going to regret this decision.

He hit maryland last week but the odds werent as big as troy. maryland was around 5.20 or +420
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2006
2,103
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Iron Horse

10* GOY is Tenn






Mikey Sports

(3-0 on top plays)
4* FL ATL +7

(9-12 on reg plays)
3* E Mich +21
3* Mich St -8.5
3* Miss -7




Cajun-Sports "GATOR REPORT" Newsletter for Saturday

Saturday September 20, 2008

Selections in the GATOR REPORT are always 1-Unit selections unless otherwise noted. (*) 1-Unit, (**) 2-Units and (***) 3-Units.

NCAA ?Tech? Game of the Week:

7:00 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION

Kent State +2? over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

The Ragin' Cajuns seek their first win of the season when they host the Golden Flashes in a MAC vs. Sun Belt Conference clash Saturday night. Akron did get their first win of the season last week over 1-AA Delaware, 24-3. They opened the 2008 season with back-to-back losses to Boston College and Iowa State. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 51-21 setback to Southern Mississippi, and followed that game with a tough, 20-17 loss at Illinois.

The Cajuns have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage, as they lost 5 of 6 Cajun Field and will now try to stop a Kent State team coming off its best offensive effort of the year. The defense for ULL has been unable to stop the run, as the opposition is pounding the Cajuns for a whopping 300+ rushing ypg. Overall the defense is allowing 487 total ypg, and that has led to a whopping 35.5 ppg.

The opening line of this game certainly caught our eye, as we look to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a ?key number?, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.

Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright.

This certainly has not been a good price range for Louisiana-Lafayette, as they are 0-5-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) with a line between -3 and +1. These inter-conference meetings have not been kind to the Cajun?s conference as well. Sun Belt teams are 0-7 SU (-13.4 ppg) & 0-6-1 ATS (-9 ppg) vs. the Mid-American Conference when not favored by 8+ points since 2004.

Actually, Sun Belt Conference teams have done very poorly since the league?s existence in games with very tight lines in all non-conference games. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. a non-conference opponent.

The Sun Belt teams in this spot are 0-10 SU & ATS, losing outright and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs per game on each count. Last year, it was Louisiana-Lafayette hosting Ohio of the MAC and lost 31-23 as a 1-point home dog. The Cajuns qualify again as the PLAY AGAINST team, so we?ll take all the points we can get back the over looked Golden Flashes.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KENT STATE 28 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24


NCAA 70% Super Situations:

>NCAA Saturday: Play Under CFB team against the total after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, 25-2 Under since 1992 (92.6%)
PLAY: *** Mississippi State / Georgia Tech UNDER 36.5

NCAA Saturday:

GATOR REPORT NCAA Games of the Week:


SEC GOW (1-1 -10): AUBURN +2? over LSU

LSU is:

0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at Auburn

0-7 ATS as a conference favorite with less than 13 days rest last season.

0-7-1 as a Saturday conference favorite of less than 16 points with less than 13 days rest under Les Miles.

Auburn is:
9-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) as an underdog before Game 8 vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.

8-0 ATS since 2004 off scoring less than 21 points and not favored by 41+ points.

ACC GOW (0-0): Wake Forest +5 over FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest is:
4-0 ATS vs. Florida State, winning the last 2 outright as underdogs, including 30-0 shutout in last trip to Tallahassee.

Florida State is:

0-4 ATS with double revenge since 1999

Off 2 non-lined SU wins; however, playing 2 1-AA teams has not prepared teams well for the role of small favorite. Favorites of 8 points or less off 2 non-lined games vs. opponents not off an underdog SU loss of 6+ points are 0-8 SU (-21.2 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-23.4 ppg) since at least 1980.

BIG EASY? GOW (3-0 +300): OREGON -10 over Boise State

Boise State has NEVER beat a BCS school on the road, while Oregon is 20-1-1 ATS in home SU wins, including 8-0 ATS the last 89

Oregon has scored 34+ points in every non-conference home game since the start of the 2004 season, which is bad news for Boise State, as they are 0-11-1 ATS when allowing more than 28 points on the road.


Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): TOLEDO +7 over Fresno State

The 25th-ranked Bulldogs are still hurting after losing a tough home game to No. 8-ranked Wisconsin. Now, the Bulldogs find themselves the hunted instead of the hunter, as they are forced to travel to a tough environment to play a hungry team looking for a program-building victory.

Fresno State entered the season with the highest of hopes - a Bowl Championship Series berth. After the 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which there were missed three field goals, the Bulldogs' BCS dream is certainly a long shot.

The biggest question around the program is how the team responds to the adversity of losing to Wisconsin and effectively ending those hopes. In the past the Bulldogs have let down after tough losses.

Fresno State is:

0-12-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) off a SU loss in which they did not beat the spread by more than 11 points.

0-11-1 ATS (-13 ppg) on the road off a SU loss

0-8-1 ATS (-10 ppg) off a home SU loss

Toledo is:

11-0 SU (+24.6 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+15 ppg) at home off scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 35 points in its last game and not favored by 32+ points.

6-0 SU (+8.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a home underdog under Amstutz with less than 14 days rest off their previous game.

4-0 SU & ATS at home with revenge vs. non-conference opponents under



Winners Path

Iowa pk
Utah -9.5
LSU/Auburn un 37.5
Iowa St +2.5


Big Ten Sports
NCAA 0-3

Big 10 Shocker - C Mich +10.5


Frank Magliosa
NCAA sides 3-1, totals 1-3

Army +10
Rice +29.5
Miami OH +12
Auburn +3





Boxer Sports
NCAA sides 9-4, totals 1-3

3* Minn -6.5
3* Rutgers -5
3* Miami OH +12
3* Ariz St +7




PPP/Gavazzi

5% Purdue -10
4% New Mex +10
4% San Jose St +8





Las Vegas Sports (NCAA 10-6)

Penn St -28.5
BYU -27.5
Mich St -8.5
Utah -9
Miss -7





Underdog Sportsline

Marshall +7.5
Ariz St +7



VIP Lock Club
NCAA 5-1

1000% TX A&M +3
500% Idaho +5
250% MD -20.5
250% Wake +5.5




Insider Sports Report

Wake Forest +4 over Florida St.




Hotpicksonline

25* early blowout missouri-34
25* cincinnati-12.5
50* night killer aurburn +2.5




Sebastian

300 Akron if line moves beyond 10 make it 200
300 Toledo
50 Utah
50 tenn
20 n western
20 auburn
20 mich st
20 miss st under
20 n Mex st over
20 Idaho under



JIM FEIST

Blowout GOW- Michigan St




GLEN McGREW

Dog GOM

Toledo
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2006
2,103
5
38
Cleveland
antonwins

Today's 4 unit NCAAF play is Florida State -4.5

Wake Forest (335) at Florida State (336) Game Date/Time: 9/20/2008 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Time




Erin Rynning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20* c. michigan+10.5




POWER INDEX

East Carolina -7 over North Carolina State* (Saturday)
We went against ECU last weekend and were rewarded with a cover. The Pirates were in a perfect position to play less than their best against Tulane. The Green Wave put a scare into the Pirates and let them know that winning cannot be taken for granted. We expect East Carolina to come out and destroy a rather pitiful NC State squad that looks pretty hopeless on offense.

Iowa/Pittsburgh* UNDER 41.5 (Saturday)
Here are two teams that depend on their defenses to win games. While the offenses in this game should struggle, both stop units should have success keeping the score down. Always nice to find a totals play where neither offense has shown much punch and both defenses have been reliable.

Alabama -9.5 over Arkansas* (Saturday)
Arkansas has won two unimpressive games so far. Slipping past the likes of Western Illinois and UL-Monroe by a combined total of 5 points hardly suggests that the Razorbacks are ready for SEC competition. Coach Petrino will need great success through the air in this one, as the Alabama run defense is very strong. We expect Alabama to win convincingly and cover here, as Arkansas appears to have a long way to go.

Tulane* -6 over UL-Monroe (Saturday)
We suspect that Tulane is sneaky good. This is a team that is 0-2, but has given a good accounting of themselves against two ranked opponents. The Green Wave defense has been the main reason for keeping Tulane in both games. The obvious drop in competition this week suggests to us that Tulane is ready to bust into the win column with enthusiasm. ULM has problems on defense and should give Tulane an opportunity to score plenty of points this week.

Boise State +10.5 over Oregon* (Saturday)
This is an injury play. The Ducks are down to third string QB Masoli for this game. Boise State has a decent defense and should make this game very competitive. The Ducks were magnificent offensively in their first two games but started slowly last week at Purdue. An OT injury to backup QB Roper has left Oregon inexperienced at the position and in danger of actually dropping this game outright.

LSU -2.5 over Auburn* (Saturday)
Hard to believe that Auburn beat Mississippi State by a 3-2 score last week. The oddball result gave us the feeling that Auburn's mistake-prone offensive unit will be in trouble this week against an opponent that is far more capable than MSU on offense. Unless Auburn can learn to hang onto the ball (8 fumbles in their first two outings), they will have a hard time matching the offensive output of LSU.




THE SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL


(6) LSU (2-0, 0-1 ATS) at (10) Auburn (3-0, 1-2 ATS)

LSU goes into Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn looking to score a win there for the first time in 10 years when two SEC-title contenders square off in this key conference matchup.

LSU has opened the season with two easy wins, beating Appalachian State 41-13 in a non-lined game in the opener and then topping North Texas 41-3 a week ago but failing to cover the 42?-point spread. LSU?s power rushing game has done the job with junior Charles Scott leading the way with 262 yards and four TDs this season, averaging 11.4 yards per carry. The offense put up 425 total yards on North Texas last week, led by Scott?s 102 yards on seven carries.

Auburn specializes in defense and has allowed just 13 points in three games, not counting a safety allowed by the offense in last week?s 3-2 win at Mississippi State, with the Tigers failing to cover as a 10-point road favorite. In addition to keeping teams off the scoreboard, Tommy Tuberville?s defense is allowing just 53 rushing ypg and held the Bulldogs without a third-down conversion in 14 tries. Despite failing to get into the end zone, Auburn?s offense was decent last week, with QB Chris Todd throwing for 154 yards and RB Ben Tate gaining 92 yards on 20 carries.

The home team has dominated this series, winning each of the last eight meetings (5-2-1 ATS). The last time the visitor scored a win was in 1999 when Auburn went to LSU and got a 41-7 victory the year after LSU prevailed 31-19 at Jordan-Hare as a six-point favorite. Last year was the highest-scoring meeting between these two in more than a decade, when LSU won 30-24 but failed to cover as a 10?-point home chalk.

It?s been tough going for LSU at the betting window, as Les Miles? team is currently on ATS slides of 4-8-1 overall, 2-6-1 on the highway the last two years, 1-6-1 in SEC play and 3-7 after a straight-up win. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine September games, but it is 7-2 ATS in its last nine against winning teams.

The under is 4-0 in LSU?s last four September affaris, but otherwise for the team, the over is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 6-1 in SEC action and 6-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, Auburn has a bevy of under streaks, including 8-2 in SEC play, 5-0 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-1 in September.

Finally, the under had cashed in seven consecutive head-to-head meetings between these rivals before last year?s game soared over the total. Still, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER





(9) Alabama (2-0, 2-1 ATS) at Arkansas (2-0, 0-1 ATS)

The Crimson Tide will try to make it four in a row to open the season when they travel to Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville for an SEC matchup with Arkansas.

Alabama has hardly been tested so far this season, beginning with a 34-10 upset in a neutral-site game against Clemson as a four-point ?dog. A week ago, the Tide rolled over Western Kentucky 41-7 as a 26-point home chalk, racking up 557 yards of offense, led by QB John Parker Wilson who threw for 215 yards and two TDs to become the school?s all-time leader in total offense with 6,321 yards. Nick Saban?s defense has also been strong, topping the nation in rush defense, allowing just 42.7 ypg on the ground and 1.9 yards per carry.

Arkansas is lucky to be 2-0 at this point, with narrow wins over Western Illinois 28-24 in a non-lined opening game and then pulling out a 28-27 home win over Louisiana-Monroe back on Sept. 6 as a 14-point favorite. New coach Bobby Petrino?s club needed a TD pass from QB Casey Dick with 1:22 left to get the win over Louisiana-Monroe. Dick has had to carry the offense for the Razorbacks, throwing for 641 yards, two TDs and an INT.

The Crimson Tide scored a 41-38 win over Arkansas last season, surviving after twice blowing a 21-point lead, but failing to cover as 3?-point home favorites. The host has won eight of the last 10 matchups (5-5 ATS) but the visitor (and underdog) has gotten the cash in the last three. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and three of the last five games have been decided either in the final seconds or in overtime, including the most recent clash in Fayetteville in 2006, when Arkansas prevailed 24-23 in OT as a 2?-point chalk.

Alabama is on ATS slides of 4-10 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 in September, 6-20 as a favorite, 1-6 against teams with a winning record, 1-6 in SEC matchups and 0-5 after a spread-cover. Conversely, Arkansas is on ATS streaks of 4-1 in SEC games, 4-1 after a bye week and 4-0 coming off a non-cover, but the Hogs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine September kickoffs.

The under is 5-2 in Alabama?s last seven overall, 5-1 in its last six on the road and 17-8 in its last 25 against teams with a winning record, but the over is 5-2 for the Crimson Tide in their last seven SEC games. For Arkansas, the over is on runs of 5-2 overall, 7-3 in SEC play, 6-0 in September and 4-0 at home.

In this rivalry, the over has cashed seven of the last 10 matchups.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER





Virginia Tech (2-1, 0-2 ATS) at North Carolina (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

The Hokies will try to make it five in a row over North Carolina when they visit Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill for an ACC showdown.

Virginia Tech has rebounded from an opening-season 27-22 upset loss at East Carolina, beating Furman 24-7 in an unlined contest two weeks ago and edging Georgia Tech 20-17 last Saturday, but coming up short as a 6?-point favorite. Virginia Tech has been running-back-by-committee this season, with redshirt freshman Darren Evans leading the way so far with 203 yards and three TDs.

North Carolina is coming off an impressive 44-12 rout at Rutgers back on Sept. 11, cashing as 5?-point road ?dog. It was the first time the Tar Heels won a game outside the state of North Carolina since 2002, and they did it with defense, intercepting four passes, one of which was returned for a touchdown. North Carolina QB T.J. Yates is averaging 221 passing ypg and has thrown five TDs and just one INT, and his favorite target is speedster WR Brandon Tate who has 231 yards on just eight catches.

The Hokies have won four straight (2-2 ATS) over North Carolina, including last year?s 17-10 home win, though the Heels covered easily as an 18?-point underdog. Last time these two squared off at Chapel Hill in 2006, Virginia Tech routed the Heels 35-10 as a 13-point road favorite.

Virginia Tech has now failed to cover in seven straight September games, but otherwise the ATS trends are all positive for Frank Beamer?s troops, including 23-7 in ACC games, 17-5 on the road, 6-0 in ACC road games and 9-4 following a non-cover. The Tar Heels are on ATS streaks of 6-2 at home and 4-1 against winning teams.

The over is 6-2 in the Hokies last eight road games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five September games and 5-2 in their last seven against winning teams. The under is also 5-1-1 in the Tar Heels last seven at home and 5-2 in their last seven against winning teams. The under is also 3-1 in the last four in this series.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER





Iowa (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-1, 0-2 ATS)

Iowa takes its dominating defense to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers in a non-conference game.

The Hawkeyes have not allowed a touchdown this season, surrendering just six points in three games. Last week, the defense held rival Iowa State to a field goal in a 17-5 win, but the offense intentionally gave up a safety late in the contest to cost Iowa the cover as a 13-point home favorite. That win came on the heels of two blowout victories over Maine and Florida International by the combined score 88-3. RB Shonn Greene leads the offense with three straight 100-yard games to open the season, including 120 yards on 20 carries a week ago.

Pittsburgh rebounded from a stunning 27-17 upset home loss to Bowling Green to beat Buffalo 27-16 on Sept. 6, but fell short again as a 13-point home favorite. Pitt was counting on big things from RB LeSean McCoy after he racked up 1,328 yards last year, but McCoy has managed just 159 yards this season, though he does have four TDs.

Including last week?s non-cover against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes come into this contest on ATS slides of 4-11 on the road, 4-9 in September and 3-12 following a straight-up win. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six against Big Ten teams and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a straight-up win, but they are on pointspread slides of 3-7 following a non-cover, 1-5 after a bye week, 0-4 at home and 0-4 in non-conference action.

The under has been the play in Iowa?s games lately, including 12-3 overall, 17-5 on the highway, 6-1 in September and 9-1 in non-conference action. And other than a 7-3 over run in September for Pitt, the Panthers? under runs including 7-1 overall, 8-3 after a bye week, 4-1 at home and 4-0 after a straight-up win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER





(18) Wake Forest (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at (24) Florida State (2-0, 0-0 ATS)

Wake Forest pays a visit to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee looking to beat Florida State for the third straight season in the ACC opener for both schools.

In their last trip to Doak Campbell Stadium in 2006, Wake Forest routed the Seminoles 30-0 as 9?-point road underdogs for their first win in this series since 1973 and the first home shutout in Florida State coach Bobby Bowden?s 33 years at the school. The Demon Deacons proved it wasn?t a fluke by upsetting the ?Noles again last year 24-21 as a 4?-point home underdog. Wake Forest has cashed in each of the last four series meetings with FSU and is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.

The Demon Deacons, who opened 2008 with an impressive 41-13 rout at Baylor as an 11-point home favorite, has been idle since getting a last-second field goal to rally past Mississippi 30-28 on Sept. 6, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite. Wake Forest?s defense has forced eight turnovers in two games and senior QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding, completing 74.7 percent of his passes for 487 yards, five TDs and no INTs.

Bowden?s boys will face their stiffest test of the season today after dismantling Division I-AA foes Western Carolina and Chattanooga by a combined 115-7 in two unlined home contests. Thanks to the weak competition, the Seminoles defense is No. 1 in the nation, allowing 170 yards per game, and also ranks in the top-10 in total defense and scoring defense as well as total offense and scoring offense. Bowden?s two-headed QB situation has worked to this point with Christian Ponder and D?Vontrey Richardson combining for 554 yards, eight TDs and no INTs.

Wake Forest is on ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 13-4 against winning teams, 22-12 as an underdog, 4-1 in ACC games, 4-1 on the road and 7-0 coming off an ATS setback. Florida State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a home chalk and 23-7-1 ATS in its last 31 at home against teams with a winning road record, but the Seminoles are just 1-4 ATS following their last five straight-up wins and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight on grass.

The under is 10-4 in the Deacons? last 14 September games, but otherwise team has over streaks of 5-1 overall, 20-8-1 on the road and 6-2 in ACC games. The over is also 5-1 in FSU?s last six against a winning team, but the under is 4-1 in its last five in Tallahassee. Finally, these two narrowly topped the 44-point total in last year?s 24-21 battle, but the over-under has alternated in the last six contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST





Notre Dame (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Michigan State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)

Coming off an impressive home win over Michigan, Notre Dame hits the highway for the first time this season hoping to beat Michigan State at Spartan Stadium and extend a streak that has seen the visitor win seven consecutive meetings in this series.

The visitor is 7-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry dating back to 2001 and is 8-1 SU and ATS over the last nine years. In 2007, Michigan State went into South Bend and cruised to a 31-14 victory as a 10-point road chalk a year after Notre Dame rallied to steal a 40-37 overtime victory at Spartan Stadium as a 2?-point favorite. Michigan State is 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the straight-up winner has cashed in each contest the last decade.

Notre Dame arrives in East Lansing with a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) dating back to last season, including last week?s 35-17 drubbing of Michigan as a one-point home underdog. The offensive line hasn?t allowed a sack in 2008 after giving up an NCAA-record 58 last year, providing QB Jimmy Clausen time to throw the ball downfield, which he?s done with mixed results, passing for 384 yards and five TDs, but also tossing four INTs.

Mark Dantonio?s Spartans opened with a 38-31 loss at Cal, coming up just short as 6?-point ?dogs. But they?ve rebounded to outscore Eastern Michigan and Florida Alantic 59-10 over the last two weeks, though they came up just shy as an 18-point home chalk in last week?s 17-0 victory over Florida Atlantic. RB Javon Ringer has been Michigan State?s big offensive weapon, rushing for 492 yards on 104 carries and finding the end zone nine times.

Charlie Weis? Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a straight-up win, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight September games. Michigan State is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 at home, but otherwise the Spartans are on positive ATS runs of 8-3 against independents, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 following a straight-up win.

For the Irish, the under is on runs of 11-4 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action and 6-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Spartans? last seven non-conference games, but the over is 9-4 in their last 13 overall. Finally, the last four meetings between these rivals have topped the posted total, and the over is 4-1 in the last five clashes in East Lansing.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE





Boise State (2-0, 0-1 ATS) at (17) Oregon (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

A week after escaping with an overtime victory at Purdue, the Ducks return home to face Boise State, who need an upset win today at raucous Autzen Stadium to keep alive its dreams of crashing the BCS party this year.

Oregon rallied from a 20-6 halftime deficit at Purdue last week to defeat the Boilermakers 32-26 in overtime for its fourth consecutive victory, but the Ducks failed to cover as an eight-point favorite to snap a 3-0 ATS run. Oregon, which survived when Purdue missed a game-winning field goal on the final play of regulation, finished with 503 total yards, including 306 rushing. However, the defense gave up 408 yards (201 rushing), and starting QB Justin Roper (20-for-48, 197 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was lost for several weeks with an injury.

The Broncos prepped for this contest with a 20-7 rout of Bowling Green, failing to cover as a 17?-point home favorite. Boise State, which had just a 340-307 edge in total offense last week, has won 11 of its last 13 games, but has followed up a 4-0 ATS streak with three straight non-covers in lined games.

Boise State has given up just one touchdown in each of its first two games, but today that defense runs up against a Ducks offense that through three games is putting up 47.3 points and 562 total yards per contest.

The Broncos are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, but otherwise they carry negative ATS trends of 3-7-1 against the Pac-10, 2-5 in September, 1-4 in non-conference play and 6-10-1 on the road.

Despite last week?s non-cover at Purdue, Oregon is on ATS streaks of 11-5 overall, 5-1 at home (2-0 this year), 14-3 as a home favorite, 4-0 against the Western Athletic Conference , 12-4 in September and 7-1 on artificial turf.

For Boise, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2 in September, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 9-3 in non-conference action. The under is also 5-2 in Oregon?s last seven home games, but the over is 14-4-2 in the Ducks? last 20 in September and 5-0 in their last five versus WAC foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON





Air Force (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at (20) Utah (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

Utah heads back on the road for a tricky matchup against always-dangerous Air Force as two of the Mountain West Conference?s remaining unbeatens square off in Colorado Springs, Colo.

The Utes fell behind instate rival Utah State 7-0 last week, then boat-raced the Aggies from there, winning 58-10 and easily covering as a 24?-point road favorite. Utah has won four straight games dating to last year?s bowl victory over Navy and is 11-1 SU in its last 12 and 8-3 ATS in its last 11.

Air Force had last week?s game at Houston shifted to Dallas because of Hurricane Ike, but the venue change didn?t slow the Falcons who won 31-28 as a 2?-point road underdog to improve to 9-1 ATS in their last 10 lined contests. Air Force?s triple-option offense worked to perfection as it rolled up 380 rushing yards, and the Falcons won their ninth game in their last 11 contests despite not completing a single pass (0-for-7) and allowing 534 yards to the Cougars.

The Falcons stunned Utah 20-12 as a seven-point road underdog last year, snapping the Utes? four-game winning streak in this series. Air Force is on a 6-2 ATS run against Utah, and the road team has cashed in six consecutive meetings in this rivalry, while the underdog is 9-0 ATS the last nine years.

Air Force is 11-3 ATS under second-year coach Troy Calhoun, including 5-0 ATS at home. Additionally, the Falcons are on pointspread streaks of 6-0 in Mountain West play and 27-11-1 in September. Meanwhile, Utah?s ATS runs include 8-3 overall, 5-2 in conference, 5-1 on the road and 8-4 against winning teams, but the Utes are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 in September.

The last two meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. The under is also on streaks of 7-2 for Utah in conference play, 7-3 for Utah on the road and 9-3 for Air Force at home. However, more recently, the over is 4-0 in Utah?s last four overall and 4-1 in Air Force?s last five overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: AIR FORCE





(15) East Carolina (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at N.C. State (1-2, 1-1 ATS)

Having survived a scare at Tulane a week ago, East Carolina takes to the road once again, this time to face struggling North Carolina State.

The Pirates got a touchdown with 1:41 remaining to put away Tulane 28-24 last week, falling way short as a 12?-point road chalk. East Carolina, which opened the season with stunning upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, has won five straight games and seven of eight dating to last season.

North Carolina State managed to hang with Clemson for awhile last Saturday, but never threatened to pull off the upset, losing 27-9 but covering as a 20-point road underdog to halt an 0-3 ATS slide. The Wolfpack have lost four straight games to Division I-A foes, scoring a total of 27 points in the defeats.

East Carolina is getting it done with defense, yielding just 16.3 points and 270 yards per game, while N.C. State?s D has gotten ripped for 28.3 points and 366.7 yards per contest.

These regional rivals have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last six meetings going back to 1997, with the Wolfpack prevailing 34-20 as a six-point road underdog last season. The visitor has won the last two contests, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 head-to-head battles, five of them being outright upsets.

Despite last week?s non-cover, the Pirates remain on incredible ATS steaks of 28-12 overall, 11-4 in non-conference action, 15-6 on the road, 12-4 in September, 11-3 against losing clubs and 6-2 versus the ACC. On the other hand, N.C. State is mired in ATS funks of 9-23 at home, 1-6 in non-league action, 2-8 in September and 1-4 versus Conference USA foes.

The over is 5-1 in East Carolina?s last six road games, but N.C. State sports under streaks of 21-10-2 overall, 7-1-2 in non-conference and 20-8-2 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: EAST CAROLINA





(4) Florida (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Tennessee (1-1 SU and ATS)

Another chapter in one of college football?s most bitter rivalries will be written today at Neyland Stadium, as Tennessee hosts Florida in the SEC opener for both schools.

The Vols bounced back from a heartbreaking overtime loss at UCLA with last week?s 35-3 rout of UAB as a 30-point home favorite. Tennessee featured a balanced offensive attack in the victory, rushing for 266 yards and passing for 282, while the defense held the Blazers to 275 total yards while forcing three turnovers (all interceptions).

Florida, which opened up 2008 with convincing wins and covers over Hawaii (56-10) and Miami, Fla. (26-3), took last week off to prep for this contest. The Gators have won and covered six consecutive regular season games.

Florida QB Tim Tebow (393 passing yards, 92 rushing yards, 3 TDs, no INTs) has gotten off to a slow start in his junior season, but the defense has been strong, allowing just 6.5 points and 190.5 total yards per game. As for the Vols, they sport a per-game yardage edge of 457-282, with the defense yielding just 15 ppg.

The Gators own a three-game winning streak in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including last year?s dominating 59-20 victory as a seven-point home favorite, as Florida finishewith

a 554-298 yardage advantage. Although the Gators have cashed in two of the last three against Tennessee as a favorite, the underdog is still 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Finally, the home team has gotten the cash in the last three battles.

Florida is just 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2005, including 1-3 ATS last year, and the Gators are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight in September. Conversely, Tennessee sports ATS runs of 9-4-1 at home (5-1-1 at home last year), 4-0 as a home underdog since 2006 and 5-2-1 in SEC action.

For Florida, the over is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-0 in the SEC. On the other hand, Tennessee sports under runs of 7-2 overall, 19-7-1 at home and 4-1 in conference play. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six series meetings (2-1 at Tennessee).

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE





(3) Georgia (3-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Arizona State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)

Arizona State will try to shake off last week?s stunning home loss to UNLV when it welcomes the third-ranked Bulldogs to Tempe for a much-anticipated non-conference clash.

The Sun Devils clearly got caught looking ahead to this showdown against Georgia, and they paid the price last Saturday, suffering a 23-20 overtime loss to unheralded UNLV as a 24-point home favorite, arguably the biggest upset of the young season. Since starting off last season 8-0 (6-2 ATS), Arizona State has split its last four games (1-6 ATS in lined action)

Georgia won its 10th in a row last week, but it wasn?t easy, holding on for 14-7 victory over South Carolina, pushing as a seven-point road favorite. The Bulldogs actually ended up on the short end of both the yardage (289-252) and first-down (20-17) battles, but the defense held the Gamecocks to just 18 net rushing yards, and Mark Richt?s team had a 10-minute edge in time of possession.

Including blowout wins over Georgia Southern (45-21) and Central Michigan (56-17), the Bulldogs are putting up averages of 38.3 points and 446.3 total yards per game (193.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Arizona State nets 30.3 points and 442 total yards per effort (324.7 passing ypg). Defensively, both teams are stout, with Georgia allowing per-game averages of 15 points and 296 total yards and the Sun Devils giving up 17.7 points and 299 yards per game.

Georgia is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six lined games, and the Dawgs are on further positive pointspread streaks of 12-6-1 on the road, 5-0 in non-conference roadies, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1-1 in September. On the flip side, in addition to their ongoing 1-6 ATS slump, the Sun Devils are in the midst of pointspread funks of 1-4 at home, 1-5 on grass and 1-4 against winning teams.

Since the end of the 2006 season, the under is 13-5 in ASU?s last 18 lined games, including 6-1 in its last seven non-conference matchups and 5-2 in September. Meanwhile, Georgia?s under streaks include 9-4 on the road and 22-7 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER







NATIONAL LEAGUE



Philadelphia (86-68) at Florida (81-72)

Desperately clinging to their playoff hopes, the red-hot Marlins go for their 10th straight victory when they send Anibal Sanchez (2-4, 5.87 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies? Joe Blanton (2-0, 4.53) in the middle game of a weekend series at Dolphin Stadium.

Florida ran its major-league-best winning streak to nine in a row with a 14-8 home rout of the Phillies on Friday, snapping Philadelphia?s seven-game run. Still, the Fish trail the Phillies by 4? games in the wild-card race. During their nine-game winning streak, the Marlins are 7-0 at home, 6-0 against the N.L. East and 9-0 against right-handed starters. They?re also 10-2 in Sanchez?s last 12 outings at home.

With Friday?s loss, Philadelphia slipped back into second place in the N.L. East, a half-game behind New York. The Phillies still lead the wild-card battle by two games over the Brewers and 4? over Florida. Charlie Manuel?s club also remains on positive runs of 5-2 on the road, 5-1 against right-handed starters, 6-1 on Saturdays and 4-1 when Blanton opposes N.L. East rivals.

Florida leads the season series against Philadelphia 10-6, winning seven of the last nine meetings overall and seven of the last nine at home.

Blanton, who was acquired from Oakland at the trade deadline, was solid in Sunday?s 7-3 win over Milwaukee, allowing three runs on five hits in seven innings, his longest outing since Aug. 8. Including his stint with the A?s, Blanton is 4-3 on the road with a 5.51 ERA in 11 starts this year. Also, despite yielding four runs on five hits in five innings, he defeated the Marlins 8-6 in Philadelphia in his only previous career start against them on Sept. 8.

Sanchez entered Sunday?s home start against Washington in the midst of a nasty four-start funk in which he gave up 19 runs in 9 2/3 innings (8.70 ERA). However, he tamed the Nationals, giving up three runs (two earned) on four hits in seven innings, with Florida holding on for an 8-7 victory. The right-hander, who missed the first four months of the season with an injury, is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five home starts in 2008.

Sanchez is 0-3 with a 10.69 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies (all Florida losses, all in Philadelphia), including 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in two efforts this season.

The over is 3-0 in Blanton?s last three starts, 3-0 in Sanchez?s last three, 3-1 in Sanchez?s four career outings against Philly, and Blanton?s lone start against Florida topped the total. The over is also 8-2-1 in the Phillies? last 11 games overall, 7-3-1 in their last 11 on Saturday, 7-3 in Florida?s last 10 overall and 4-0 in the last four series meetings between these clubs.

Finally, with Friday?s slugfest easily flying over the posted price, the over is now 50-21-3 in the last 74 Marlins-Phillies clashes at Dolphin Stadium.



ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER





nathan armstrong
highprofitsports
5* blowout game of the week houston-6
3* missouri
3* penn state
2* mid tennessee state




Larry Ness


20* Mississippi -7




TOM FREESE

Game: San Jose St. at Stanford Sep 20 2008 9:00PM
Prediction: San Jose St.

Reason: San Jose St is 8-0 ATS off a straight up win and they are 40-19-1 ATS their last 60 games vs. losing teams. The Spartans are 7-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game and they are 6-1 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last game. Stanford is 4-10 ATS their last 14 home games and they are 4-10 ATS their last 14 games vs. winning teams. The Cardinal are 2-10 ATS after allowing over 200 yards rushing in their last game and they are 1-11 ATS their last 12 September games. PLAY ON SAN JOSE ST





JIMMY THE MOOSE

Game: East Carolina at NC State Sep 20 2008 12:00PM
Prediction: East Carolina

Reason: East Carolina is off to a 3-0 SU start and 2-1 ATS. The Pirates are averaging 26.3 PPG while allowing 16.3 per contest. East Carolina is 15-6 at the window in their last 21 road games. The Pirates are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. East Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC team's. North Carolina is 1-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. The Wolfpack are averaging 14.3 PPG and are giving up 28.3 per contest. NC State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. In their last 10 games played in September they are 2-8 ATS. In their last 7 non-conference games they are 1-6 ATS. Play on East Carolina -.





ARTHUR RALPH

Saturday
San Jose State




JIMMY BOYD

North Carolina -2

This is a huge game for the Heels to let the Hokies see what it feels like to be on the losing end of this matchup. Following a devastating loss in their season opener, the Hokies have bounce back with back-to-back wins but haven?t looked overly impressive in either. The Tar Heels will have had nine days of preparation leading up to this one and that, along with home field, gives them a big advantage here. The Hokies are a terrible 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in September and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. This points out the simple fact that this is not the same defensive team we are used to seeing. The Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Tar Heels.




THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

OHIO ST -21 over Troy




LEROY's MONEY TALKS 5K INVITATIONAL CAPPING CONTEST

The Shrink (Ken Weitzner) vs. ArmvinSport****(Bruce Armstrong)

The Shrink:

1) #354 Texas A&M +2 1/2
2) #382 Arkansas State -5 1/2
3) #314 Cincinnati -11 1/2
4) #371 Iowa State +2 1/2
5) #344 Tulsa -10
6) #374 Stanford -8

BestBet: #322 Auburn +2 1/2


ArmvinSports (Bruce Armstrong):

1) #354 Texas A&M +2 1/2
2) #331 Virginia Tech +3 1/2
3) #359 Fresno State -7
4) #333 Iowa -1
5) #370 Arizona State +7
6) #312 Northwestern -11 1/2

BestBet: #404 Chicago -3
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2006
2,103
5
38
Cleveland
NEWSLETTER

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP



NCAA Power Sweep 4* (1-2, 33%)
UTAH -7.5

Dog of the Week (1-1, 50%)
TOLEDO +7

Early Bird Play (1-0, 100%)
BYU -26 ( NOW -29 )





4* Utah over AIR FORCE - AF is on a 9-0 ATS run! Utah has won 4 of the L/5 over AF but was upset LY 20-12 after being stopped twice on the 1 yd line in the final 1:25 (UT inj riddled in that gm). Last time here Utah got a FG on the last play to win 17-14 (-1). The Utes are in a legitimate lone home loss revenge situation. LW they laid the hammer to Utah St, 58-10 in a dominating road win. Utah outgained USU 445-116 & held them under 100 ttl yds until the L/3:00 of the gm. QB Johnson is avg 231 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. RB Asiata has been seen taking snaps behind center & leads with 167 yds rush (4.8) but LY?s star, Mack, has 160 (4.6). AF had to fight off a late rally (up 31-7 mid-3Q) in a 31-28 win over an emotionally drained Houston team and in a gm that was moved up to avoid the threat of Ike. AF was outgained 534-380 and held to 0 yds passing further depleting QB Smith?s passing stats (30 ypg, 48%, 1-1 ratio) but he is the #2 rusher with 227 (4.5). Halderman is #1 with 238 rush yds (11.9) and Lumpkin has added 222 (4.0). AF & Utah have comb to avg 61 ppg S/?83 (22 gms). AF went 4-2 LY as a dog (24-18 L/10 as a dog) but is just 2-5 as a HD. Utah is just 4-8 as an AF (7-12 as MWC AF). This is the Utes 3rd road game in 4 wks while AF has a bye on deck. Although AF has opened the ssn strong and is on the ATS run, the last time Utah had a team this good (?04) they won their 3 MWC road games by 20 ppg. FORECAST: Utah 34 AIR FORCE 17




3* PURDUE over Central Michigan - This is their 3rd meeting in a year. LY we won with a 4H Key Selection on these pages on Purdue (-21?) at home and they covered 45-22 after jumping out to a 38-0 lead. They then met in the Motor City Bowl and Purdue led 34-13 at the half but only prevailed 51-48. CM has 16 ret starters to just 12 for PU but both offenses are stronger so this should be a shootout. CM is on their 3rd straight road gm, in a MAC sandwich and has not put a lot into IA non-conf gms as they were outscored 234-104 LY and lost to Georgia 56-17 (+24?). CM trailed Ohio 14-10 and had to come from behind for a 31-28 win despite being outgained 513-431 as Ohio fmbl?d the possible gm winning TD into the EZ. Purdue is off a frustrating loss as they led 20-3 in the 2Q but all?d Oregon to tie it, and missed a gm winning FG at the end of regulation, losing 32-26 in 2OT?s. They were outgained 503-408 by the #16 Ducks. Purdue has the def edge (#75-115) but CM has the off edge (#27-50) and has played the tougher schedule (#45-93). Based from their experience LY, Purdue won?t lay off the pedal. FORECAST: PURDUE 41 Central Michigan 24



3* PENN ST over Temple - Five members of the TU?s staff, including HC Golden played under Paterno. PSU won LY?s game in Philly 31-0 in front of 85% Lions fans with a 462-242 yd edge (Temple 4 yds rush) as Penn St transfer QB DiMichele DNP. The Lions have their B10 opener on deck and did not cover vs Buff LY in the same spot. Temple has 22 ret starters but is in a MAC sandwich. Penn St is 11-5-1 as a HF. We won with PSU as a 4H on these pages LW vs Syracuse as the Lions dominated with 26-8 FD & 560-159 yd edges. QB Clark has mastered the Spread HD offense avg 175 ypg (60%) with a 5-0 ratio. Royster has 306 yds (8.1). Temple has lost 2 heartbreakers in a row with an OT loss to Conn and on a Hail Mary TD pass to Buffalo last week. QB DiMichele avg 205 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. TU?s allowing 201 rush ypg (4.2) which spells trouble as the Lions haven?t let up on the gas yet. FORECAST: PENN ST 44 Temple 13


OTHER SELECTIONS

2* Florida over TENNESSEE - Florida manhandled Tenn LY for Fulmer?s worst ever loss and UT?s worst loss in 37 meetings vs UF. We won a rare 4H Totals Play on the OVER in the 59-20 final. UT has avg just 13 ypg rush the L/ 2 meetings. LY UF had a young D with only 2 starters returning and faced UT behind veteran QB Ainge but only all?d 298 yds & 14 FD?s. TY UF?s #3 D (#4 pass D) has only all?d 6.5 ppg & 191 ypg and now faces UT QB Crompton who is only making his 4th career start. UF has now won 3 straight (2-1 ATS) and is 11-3-1 ATS in conf openers (Tenn 6 str times). They are, however, 2-7 ATS (but won the L2) as an SEC AF and have gone 0-3 ATS in their road opener under Meyer. Vol QB Crompton (PS#3) was shaky on the road in the opener, but led UT to a comfortable win over UAB LW and is avg 214 ypg (53%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Foster has 196 (7.8) and the tm is avg 222 (5.9) rush ypg. UT?s #21 D all?d mobile UAB QB Webb 78 rush (5.6) but he only threw for 162 yds with 3 int. Tebow has been reined in a bit TY and is avg 197 ypg (61%) with a 3-0 ratio and 92 rush (4.2). The Vols have the SEC?s longest home win streak (9) and are 13-2 SU & 4-0 ATS as a HD. While UF is off a bye, UT had a bye 2 weeks ago. The Gators? now veteran D is faster than UT?s offense and that will be the difference in this one.
FORECAST: Florida 34 TENNESSEE 20




2* Marshall (+) over SOUTHERN MISS - Last year Marshall was done in by 4 TO?s as they fell behind 20-0 in Huntington and are now 0-3 SU all-time losing by an avg of 34-18. Marshall comes in off a conf home win vs Memphis, despite being outgained 462-403 by the Tigers. Marshall held Memphis, who came in avg 30 ppg and 170 ypg on the ground, to 16 pts and 94 yds rushing. SMiss RB Fletcher has topped 150+ yards rushing in both of his games vs the Herd but they do have a new offense and he was held to 87 yds (3.8) LW vs Ark St. SMiss was outgained 447-348, but capitalized on the Red Wolves? 2 TO?s and a ST miscue. SMiss is 29-12 SU and 24-17 at home vs CUSA but that was all under coach Bower while Marshall is 5-11 ATS vs their own division. SM has just 10 ret sts (Marshall 17). SM has a bye on deck and is just 3-8 ATS before a bye. Marshall travels to WVU next week, but don?t look for the Herd to be thinking ahead. Previously MU got pounded on the ground vs SMiss but those days should be over as the Herd are well equipped to stop the Eagles new offense. FORECAST: Marshall 24 (+) SOUTHERN MISS 27



2* Notre Dame (+) over MICHIGAN ST - The visitor has won 7 in a row SU in the series (6-0-1 ATS) with MSU the 1st ever opp to win 6 straight in South Bend. Last time here began the downfall of ex-coach Smith as MSU blew a 31-14 3Q lead and lost. LY the Spartans won by 17 on the road with a 354-203 yd edge. MSU is just 5-9 as a HF and the Irish are 6-2 as an AD. This is ND?s road opener and they are off a 35-17 win over rival Mich as we had a 2H on the Irish on these pages. The Irish jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks in part to 6 Michigan TO?s on a wet field as the Wolves outgained the Irish 388-260 and outFD?d them 21-14. QB Clausen avg 192 ypg (56%) with a 5-4 ratio. MSU went to the ground in the rain as RB Ringer (498, 4.8) had 282 yds as the Spartans shutout FAU. In that game the Owls had a 1Q 74 yd TD run called back and botched a FG on a bad snap. MSU has all of the edges (#36-45 off, #32-53 D & #87-112 ST?s) but this is the odd series where the home field is a disadvantage. FORECAST: Notre Dame 23 (+) MICHIGAN ST 26



UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 178-124. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 27 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:

In their only prior gm (?05), Toledo had 20-13 FD & 304-248 yd edges but lost by 30 (44-14, +14) due to TO?s & poor ST play. UT is coming off B2B losing seasons for the first time since ?77-?78. The Rockets are 5-8 ATS but are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in their L/4 HG?s. UT is 7-1 SU & ATS in its first lined HG. This is UT?s home opener & the Rockets are 41-6 SU in the Glass Bowl this decade incl 6-1 as a HD with wins over Iowa St, Kan & a talented #9-ranked Pitt team in the L/5 yrs. FSU has the edge on off (#41-68), def (#36-85) & ST ?s (#20-100). The big question here is, how will the Bulldogs respond after losing the biggest game in school history? In a somewhat similar situation back in ?05 when FSU lost to #1 USC (50-42), Fresno suffered a major hangover going on to lose 10 of their next 11 gms (1-10 SU & ATS). FSU is on a 7-4 ATS run but is only 1-5 ATS as an AF with 3 outright upsets. This could be a sticky situation for the Bulldogs as this contest lands smack in the middle of a pair of BCS gms (Wisky LW, at UCLA on deck) and it could be difficult for FSU to rise up again & bring its ?A? game. FORECAST: TOLEDO 27 Fresno St 23




WUNDERDOG

Game: Alabama at Arkansas (Saturday 9/20 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arkansas +9.5 (-110)

The SEC has now gone into the record books with five teams in the top 10. Top to bottom this is the best conference in football right now. It is very very difficult to play anywhere on the road in this conference, no matter which teams are playing. Laying two scores on the road is just too much. That especially rings true given the fact that Alabama is not a big play, quick-strike offense. In fact, their scoring drives have averaged over eight plays per drive. That Tide philosophy has kept them from winning big on the road in the SEC where they own just one win by more than a TD since 2005. That makes the TD+ here look very valuable. Bobby Petrino is 17-6 ATS in home games and he'll have his team ready. Arkansas had it's game last week postponed vs Texas, so they have had ample time to gameplan here for the Tide. I look for them to hang close here.




Strike Point Sports

Take #322 Auburn (+2.5) over LSU (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 20)



Vegas Sports Informer

Take #320 BYU (-28) over Wyoming (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 20)

Can easily see the BYU Cougars hitting 40 points in this game but with the Wyoming offense struggles this could and will get ugly. BYU and the favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS. Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games




THE RED SHEET


NCAA Red Sheet 89 (2-3-1, 40%)
MINNESOTA -7
MIAMI OHIO +12


NCAA Red Sheet 88 (4-4-1, 50%)
MICHIGAN STATE -8.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
RUTGERS -5





MINNESOTA 31 - Florida Atlantic 14 - (12 Noon EDT) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 7, & is now minus 6?. No questioning the fact that the Gophers "stunk out the joint" year ago, in Brewster's first year, as Minny's normally overpowering running game wound up just 48th in the nation, en route to an unimaginable 1-11 campaign, coming directly on the heels of 5 consecutive bowl years. And one of those 11 setbacks came in a trip to Ft Lauderdale, to take on the Owls. Gophers entered off a pair of OT games, with BigTen play (Purdue) the following week. The result, a 42-39 loss, featuring 7 TOS, with FA QB Smith burning them for 463 yds. Minny (3-0) has improved on all phases, so we color this one payback. RATING: MINNESOTA 89

CINCINNATI 24 - Miami-Ohio 23 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 13, & is now minus 11?. Much like the above selection, the Redhawks of Miami have a score to settle, after being blasted 47-10 by the Bearcats a year ago. In '07, Cincy was the master of the takeaway, & didn't disappoint in their demolition of Miami, a the 'Hawks turned it over 4 times, & had a punt blocked to boot. But things have changed dramatically since that encounter, as Miami returns 17 starters from last year's team which eventually made it to the MAC title game. The 'Cats are knee deep in QB trouble, as they are without LY's standout Mauk, with his replacement Grutza, is out (ankle). Line is more than juicy for this circled contest.RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 89

MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Notre Dame 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, & is now minus 8?. Well, the Irish came through for us as a 3* Phone Play, in their 35-17 win over Michigan a week ago (19? pt cover), but a closer look shows that they did it mainly by the big play, as no less than 6 Michigan TOs paved the way. Just 14 Irish FDs, along with 388-260 yd deficit. NotreDame is averaging only 3.2 ypr in the early going, including a 3.1 ypr effort the previous wk, vs a SnDiegoSt team which was mauled for 293 RYs the following week. The Spartans completely dominated the Irish a year ago, holding ND to just 9 FDs. Not only that but MSt is smoking behind Ringer (282 RYs LW), & QB Hoyer. Totally focused.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

SO MISSISSIPPI 47 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 10, & is now minus 9?. The line movement on this one is puzzling, as the Eagles of SoMiss have opened impressively, standing at 3-0 ATS, behind the throwing of RS frosh Davis, & the running of the steady Fletcher, who is accustomed to burning the Herd (151 & 152 yds the past 2 yrs). So take note of the Eagles winning their last series hoster by a 42-7 count (28-pt cover). This is SoMiss' 2nd home game of the season, so check piling up 30 FDs, 427 RYs, & 633 Total Yards in their first hoster, a 20-pt cover. Marshall is improved, but was mauled by 37 in its only road game to date, & has allowed at least 35 pts in 4 of its last 6 lined tilts. RATING: SO MISSISSIPPI 88

Rutgers 45 - NAVY 31 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 4, & is now minus 4?. This contest is a classic "must-win" setup for the Knights, who've been a genuine embarrassment in the early going. They lost only 7 starters from LY's bowl squad, with high hopes from the faithful. But things have been a genuine nightmare so far, with a combined 68-19 scoring deficit in their 0-2 start (minus 68 pts ATS). Are an amazing 122 pts behind the pts in 9 of their last 10 regular season games. The Middies never have trouble moving it, but haveallowed 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 games. It's now-or-never for the Knights. Now! RATING: RUTGERS 88




Lee Sterling

Texas A&M to upset Miami Fl. 20-17
Boise St. to upset Oregon 30-24
Tennessee to upset Florida 31-27
LSU to beat Auburn 14-10




DAVE COKIN

SEC GOY
Arkansas



4:00p Matt Foust Air Force +9.5 (-110) / 2 units
7:00p Matt Foust Arkansas St. -6.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:45p Matt Foust Auburn +3.0 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p Matt Foust Boise St +10.5 (-110) / 2 units
8:00p Matt Foust Georgia -7.0 (-110) / 2 units
9:00p Matt Foust Iowa State +2.5 (-110) / 2 units
7:45p Matt Foust LSU Auburn u37.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p Matt Foust Michigan State -8.5 (-110) / 2 units
2:00p Matt Foust Missouri -33.0 / 2 units
12:00p Matt Foust Penn St. -28.5 (-110) / 2 units
9:00p Matt Foust San Jose State +8.0 (-110) / 3 units



12:00p Rocky East Carolina -7.0 (-110) / 5 units
12:00p Rocky Mississippi State +9.0 (-110) / 2 units



7:00p Mike Rose Ball St. (140) / 3 units
12:00p Mike Rose East Carolina North Carolina State u44.0 / 2 units
12:00p Mike Rose Florida Atlantic Minnesota o63.0 / 5 units
7:45p Mike Rose LSU Auburn u38.0 / 3 units
7:00p Mike Rose Mississippi -7.0 / 3 units
3:30p Mike Rose Notre Dame +8.5 / 2 units
8:15p Mike Rose Toledo +7.0 / 2 units



12:30p The Prez Alabama -9.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:45p The Prez Auburn +3.0 (-110) / 5 units
3:30p The Prez Florida r367 -7.0 (-110) / 6 units
7:00p The Prez Florida State -4.0 (-110) / 5 units
4:00p The Prez Idaho +6.0 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p The Prez North Carolina -3.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p The Prez Purdue -10.0 (-110) / 4 units
8:15p The Prez Toledo +7.5 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p The Prez Troy +21.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p The Prez Troy Ohio State o46.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:00p The Prez Tulane -6.0 (-110) / 4 units
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2006
2,103
5
38
Cleveland
3:30p JB Sports Michigan State -8.5 (-110) / 5 units
3:30p JB Sports Rutgers -5.0 (-110) / 5 units



7:30p Bob Akmens Cincinnati -11.5 (-110) / 5 units
12:00p Bob Akmens East Carolina -7.0 (-110) / 8 units
7:00p Bob Akmens Middle Tenn St +6.0 (-110) / 5 units
12:00p Bob Akmens Ohio +12.0 (-110) / 5 units
9:00p Bob Akmens San Jose State +8.0 (-110) / 5 units
7:00p Bob Akmens Wake Forest +5.0 (-110) / 5 units



7:45p Ben Burns Auburn +3.0 / 9 units
12:00p Ben Burns Florida Atlantic +7.5 / 3 units
12:00p Ben Burns Pittsburgh -1.0 / 4 units
8:15p Ben Burns Toledo +7.5 / 6 units




GOLDSHEET Super Power 7

San Jose St.



Hotpicksonline

25* early blowout missouri-34 over buffalo
25* cincinnati-12.5 over miami ohio
50* night killer aurburn +2.5 over lsu




Ethan Law final

3% Wyoming +28.5
2% Air Force +9.5
2% Florida State -4.5
2% Pittsburgh +1
2% Virginia Tech +3.5
2% Mississippi State/georgia Tech Over 37
2% Tennessee +7.5





INTHEZONEPICKS

5* Northwestern -11 1/2
4* Virginia Tech +3
3* Fresno State -7
3* Stanford -8
2* UCLA +3
2* Texas A/M +3
2* Air Force +9 1/2
2* ASU +7
2* Iowa +1




CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

NCAA CKO 11 (1-1-1, 50%)
MINNESOTA -7

NCAA CKO 10 (7-3, 70%)
RUTGERS -5
VANDERBILT +6.5
MIAMI OHIO +12


11 *MINNESOTA over Florida Atlantic
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19

In last week?s pointspread push against Michigan State, the Owls got a huge break with the weather. A nearly constant rain put a blanket on the Spartan passing game and kept the MSU offense from scoring a lot more. FAU will have no such ally this week against rejuvenated, offensively-potent, revenge-minded Minnesota, which plays indoors at the Metrodome. The Owls allowed Spartan RB Ringer to ramble for 282 yards, and the FAU defense ranks 105th in the country. Minnesota has shown dramatic improvement on defense this season under new d.c. Ted Roof, and there really was never any question about the offense with dual-threat QB Adam Weber, star WR Eric Decker, and a vet OL springing a variety of solid RBs. The injury to TB Duane Bennett (4.1 ypc LY)
isn?t a crushing blow to Gophers, as California true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (turned down Nebraska and Washington)ran for 114 yards & 3 scores last week vs. Montana St. and fellow frosh Shady Salamon (5 ypc) are
ready to roll.

10 RUTGERS at *Navy
Late Score Forecast:
RUTGERS 35 - *Navy 20

Few teams (other than Notre Dame) have succeeded vs. Navy?s option offense as well as Rutgers under Greg Schiano, who is 5-1 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Midshipmen, with all wins by six points or more. And Navy
has struggled more than expected to far this season following the departure of HC Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech, as the Middie backfield has been plagued by key injuries (now FB Eric Kettani has a strained hamstring; check status) and the veteran secondary has failed to solidify vs. the pass. All of that is good news for Rutgers, which is 0-2 after losses to ascending Fresno and North Carolina. With Ray Rice gone to the NFL, the Scarlet Knights are counting more on their deep and speedy cast of WRs TY. And Schiano still has enough veteran talent on defense to disrupt the Navy option.

10 VANDERBILT over *Ole Miss
Late Score Forecast:
VANDERBILT 27 - *Ole Miss 22

Granted, Ole Miss appears an improved side under new HC Houston Nutt. But SEC sources also alerting us to pay attention to developments at Vandy, where HC Bobby Johnson?s consistent recruiting efforts have closed the ?talent gap? that long hindered Dores vs. conference opposition, helping the Nashville bunch to its first 3-0 start since 1984. Vandy now owns the sort of SEC-caliber playmakers it has long lacked, and Johnson has spiced up attack accordingly by featuring electric DBs D.J. Moore & Jamie Graham on offensive end (both effective on Wake Forest-like ?orbit sweeps?). Dores (least-penalized team in SEC; QB Nickson no picks in first 3 games) not beating themselves these days, either. Trust series and team trends (Vandy 6-1 vs. line last 7
meetings; Dores 12-4 as road dog since ?05) to continue.

10 MIAMI-OHIO over *Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
MIAMI-OHIO 20 - *Cincinnati 19

Long-time Midwest scouts rather surprised Cincy is still a double-digit favorite in 134th meeting for the Victory Bell, considering journeyman jr. QB Pike (3 ints. in only 31 career attempts) and/or soph D. Jones (Notre Dame transfer) are piloting the no-huddle attack for injured starter Grutza, who was in a groove until suffering broken ankle vs. Oklahoma. We doubt either QB ready to pick up the slack vs. a fired-up Miami-Ohio defense aching to atone for its embarrassingly-poor effort in 47-10 blowout vs. Bearcats year ago. Miami?s terrific trio of LBs (all 3 are Butkus Award candidates!) well-equipped to contain Cincy?s ground attack, as well as effectively blitz stationary 6-6 Pike, who?ll show hesitation in pocket sans established rapport with his WRs. On other side, RedHawks battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh (793 YP) now able to work play-action with vet WRs, thanks to productive soph RB Merriweather (210 YR so far; he missed ?07 game with injury) commanding attention from Bearcat defense that?s ?not playing physical enough,? according to disgruntled HC Kelly. Miami solid 6-1 last 7 as a road dog.



HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):

CENTRAL FLORIDA (+11) at Boston College?UCF has covered 5 of last 6 as dog and owns stalwart defenseto contain BC offense trying to adjust to life without Matt Ryan...IOWA (+1) at Pittsburgh?Pitt?s LeSean McCoy isn?t sneaking up on teams this season (3.8 ypc TY after 4.8 as a true frosh). Hawkeye ?D? ranks 1st in scoring and allows just 3 ypc...


AIR FORCE (+7?) vs. Utah?A trip to Colorado Springs not easyto prepare for, and sr. QB Shea Smith executing much like Shaun Carney did the last 4 years...TENNESSEE (+7?) vs. Florida?Certainly respect Florida QBTebow, but revenge-minded Vols aren?t anybody?s patsy at jam-packed Neyland Stadium...



THE GOLD SHEET

NCAA Key Releases (7-6, 54%)
OHIO +10.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
MINNESOTA -7



Ohio 30 - NORTHWESTERN 31?Ohio U. got a major bounce-back performance from QB Boo Jackson (365 YP, 3 TDs, 0 ints.) subbing for the injured Theo Scott last week, and hungry 0-3 Bobcats capable of putting up a fight. Undefeated Northwestern has faced a much less-demanding schedule than Ohio, and the two teams have given up basically the same amount of yards. NU 3-10 last 13 as a home favorite; Bobcats 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.
(05-NORTHWESTERN -14' 38-14...SR: Northwestern 2-1)




SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Marshall 16?Former Oklahoma State o.c.Larry Fedora?s attack still a work in progress at Southern Miss, although maturing RS frosh QB Austin Davis has developed nice rapport with all-conf. sr.TE Shawn Nelson (19 catches for 228 yards in last 2 games). Much rather lay points than take them with Marshall, which is money-burning 4-19 vs. spread its last 23 on road! (07-S. Miss 33-MAR. 24...S.21-20 S.41/160 M.31/99 S.23/30/0/310 M.20/38/3/309 S.0 M.1)
(07-Usm -3' 33-24 06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 3-0)



MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19?Minnesota found a replacement for injured RB Bennett last week, as frosh Eskridge rambled 114 yards and 3 TDs against Montana State. FAU was beaten worse than 17-0 score last week, as Javon Ringer ran for 282 yards. Gopher QB Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in total offense, and WR Eric Decker leads that league in receiving. HC Brewster gets revenge for last year while Gophers surge to 4-0 heading into Big Ten play. (07-FAU 42-Minn. 39...M.29-24 M.28/135 F.41/117 F.27/44/0/463 M.31/47/4/335 F.0 M.3) (07-FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7 42-39 05-MINNESOTA -32 46-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)




Nelly's Sportsline

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 5 TULSA (-10?) over New Mexico
RATING 4 MIAMI, FL (-3?) over Texas A&M
RATING 3 TOLEDO (+6?) over Fresno State
RATING 2 INDIANA (-3?) over Ball State
RATING 2 SAN JOSE STATE (+9?) over Stanford
RATING 1 COLORADO STATE (+6?) over Houston
RATING 1 ALABAMA (-9?) over Arkansas



KEVIN O?NEILL?S -THE MAX

Erik Scheponik NCAA (1-1, 50%)
WAKE FOREST +4.5

Dave Fobare NCAA (2-0, 100%)
GEORGIA -7

Kevin O?Neill NCAA (4-2, 67%)
AUBURN +3
NORTH CAROLINA -1.5
ARKANSAS STATE -5

Matty Baiungo NCAA (1-2, 33%)
UTAH -7.5
TENNESSEE +7.5




******* Platinum Sheet
NCAA (7-3, 70%)

LSU -3
PITTSBURGH -1
OREGON -12
TEXAS A&M +3.5
TENNESSEE +7



MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with UConn (-12) last night. Today it's Navy. The deficit is 215 sirignanos.
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2006
2,103
5
38
Cleveland
Sat, 09/20/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet370 Arizona St. / 369 Georgia Over 50.0 BetUS
Analysis: I really love this spot for an easy over. Here's the deal: Both of these offenses didn't look good last week, so we are getting value here. But the reality is, ASU was sluggish because they were looking ahead and Georgia took on a South Carolina team that always plays them tough defensively. I expect two very different offenses in this game. One thing that can kill an over is a strong pass rush, which I don't believe either of these teams have. Rudy Carpenter should shred the Dogs defense, a defense I think is vastly overrated up front. On the other side, Georgia will be able to do whatever they want. I love taking overs when SEC teams go out of conference because they are so used to playing against physical defenses, teams like ASU are a breeze. I think the Dawgs will be very balanced offensively and both Moreno and Stafford will go off. Remember what Texas did to the Sun Devils last year in the Holiday Bowl? I see the Dawgs doing the same. I think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and I see us having no problem getting over 50 points here.***3 UNIT PLAY***



Sat, 09/20/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet330 Navy / 329 Rutgers Over 60.5 BetUS
Analysis: This is my classic run vs. pass over game. I love this spot for both teams. Rutgers has looked horrible in two games but Fresno State and NC have very strong defenses. Navy does not. Any team can throw the ball all over the Midshipmen so while Mike Teel is far from a superstar, he should easily throw for 350 yards and four scores here. On the other side, Navy gets starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back, replacing average Jarod Bryant. I am so intrigued by option football that I've read books on it and have studied it for years. I can assure you, Bryant is a below-average option quarterback. He makes a terrible first read and that's the key to the option. How important is Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada? His own head coach said Bryant is a nice player but the offense is a different animal when Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is under center. This is important because Rutgers doesn't have the perimeter speed to control Shaun White, who may be the fastest player in CFB. There is no reason whatsoever these two teams shouldn't surpass 70 points and get us an easy win.***3 UNIT PLAY***




HQ Report 5 (1-1-1, 50%)
FLORIDA -7


HQ Total Recall (1-2, 33%)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs PURDUE PLAY OVER

HQ ATS (2-1, 67%)
TULSA -10


3* BALL STATE (+4) over INDIANA
3* IOWA STATE (+3) over UNLV
3* SAN JOSE STATE (+10) over STANFORD



Marc Lawrence Playbook Best Bets

NCAA Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
BOSTON COLLEGE - 10 1/2


NCAA Best Bet 4 (1-2, 33%)
GEORGIA -7


Upset Game of the Week (0-2, 0%)
ARMY +10


5* BEST BET
Disappointing start for both programs with BC dropping its ACC opener
to Georgia Tech while UCF fell in overtime to bitter intrastate rival South
Florida. We?re not at all enamored with OT losers (see last week?s I?M A
LOSER article for more on this)? especially when the defeated squad
was outgained by a 504-226 margin! Since each team has had an extra
week to prepare, they?ll probably spend most of the time trying to revive
a pair of moribund offenses. A quick check of the ATS archives tells us
the Eagles are the more likely choice to succeed. Boston College stands
16-6 with rest when taking on .500 > non-conference foes and Jeff
Jagodzinski?s bunch has covered 15 of 19 opportunities when winning
SU as chalk versus .500 > opponents. Central Florida?s George O?Leary
does not fare well when taking to the highway off a loss, compiling
a weak 6-16 ATS record (0-4 playing out of conference). THIS JUST IN:
Game Three Bowlers off a SU favorite loss (like BC) are an outstanding
16-3-1 ATS versus a foe that was a dog of more than 8 points in its last
game. With UCF leaving Orlando for the fi rst time this season and Boston
College facing lowly Rhode Island the following week, we?ll look to fl y
like an eagle with the more-focused Beantown Boys.


BOSTON COLLEGE over C Florida by 21




4*BEST BET
You?ve got to hand it to Mark Richt. Last week?s SEC opener against South
Carolina looked like an after-hours parking lot brawl outside a redneck
bar but somehow the Georgia coach guided his Dawgs to a crucial 14-
7 win over the Gamecocks. Now comes the part of the schedule where
Richt shines: he?s 32-2 SU versus non-conference foes ? 27-0 during the
regular season ? plus he?s 26-4 SU and 19-11 ATS away from Athens. It
doesn?t also doesn?t hurt that Preseason No. 1 teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9
ATS in Game Fours. Since Arizona State?s jackrabbit 8-0 SU start last year,
the Sun Devils have cooled considerably, going just 4-4 SU and 1-6 ATS
(shocked last week in OT by UNLV, 23-20, as 25-point favorites). We can
sweeten the deal by telling you home teams off an overtime loss were
just 24-41-3 ATS entering this season when taking on a foe off a SU win.
The best of this week?s SMART BOX confi rms our choice ? Dawgs rule in
the desert tonight.


Georgia over ARIZONA ST by 17





3* BEST BET
We?ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After
ripping through Oregon for 300 fi rst quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the
Boilermaker offense inexplicably fi red blanks the rest of the way against
the Ducks ? and before you could say ?Donald?, Oregon had caught up
and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts
the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ?Home Favorite Letdown Off
An Overtime Loss? scenario (see last week?s I?M A LOSER article). Central
Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged
9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both
years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point
embarrassment on this fi eld in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in
the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect
CMU?s Dan LeFevour to outduel the Boilers? Curtis Painter and walk way
with a statement-making win.

Central Michigan over PURDUE by 1



UPSET Game of the Week

ARMY over Akron by 3
Army has been home to some very bad football lately. The Cadets have
managed just 23 SU wins in the last ten years and are off to a typical
start in ?08, getting undressed at West Point by 1-AA New Hampshire
on their way to an 0-2 start. That should be suffi cient to scare everyone
away from Army this week? everyone except us. Akron may have
had enough zip to pummel sorry Syracuse in Week Two but coach J.D.
Brookhart has NEVER covered as a road favorite (0-5 ATS) while leading
the Rubber City boys. He?s also a weak 1-6 ATS when taking on a < .500
foe coming off consecutive defeats. Army coach Stan Brock was beyond
frustrated after the 28-10 loss to New Hampshire, openly questioning
the effort of his players and apologizing to fans. With a bye week to
re-address fundamentals and team commitment, Army should also
benefi t from the numbers found in our DIRE STRAITS article on page 2.
With Brock commanding his team?s full attention, look for the Cadets
to improve to 4-1 ATS off back-to-back losses when skirmishing with
the MAC.





THE SPORTS MEMO

Ed Cash NCAA (2-0, 100%)
GEORGIA -6.5


Tim Trushel NCAA (1-0, 100%)
NORTH CAROLINA -1.5


Donnie Black NCAA (2-0, 100%)
AUBURN +3


Brent Crow NCAA (0-1-1, 0%)
EAST CAROLINA -7.5


Marty Otto NCAA (0-1, 0%)
NAVY AT RUTGERS Over 58


Teddy Covers NCAA (0-0, 0%)
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5




Gamebreaker POWER triple play:
Georgia, Arizona, San Jose St

"The Guru":
Fresno, Georgia, Utah



THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK


BYU
That was a real warning shot fired by BYU a week ago vs. UCLA,
but we didn?t need any extra convincing to give the Cougars a solid
recommendation at Provo for their Saturday battle vs. struggling
Wyoming. BYU has owned this series since losing to HC Joe Glenn?s
first Cowboy team in 2003, winning and covering the last 4 meetings,
all by double-digit margins. And the Cougs have been reliable as home
chalk lately, too, covering 9 of their last 12 in that role. Meanwhile, Wyo
continues on an extended pointspread slide, standing 0-10-1 vs. the
number its last 11 on the board, and 2-15-1 its last 18 against the spread.


HOUSTON
There are several ?go against? situations in college football, and
Colorado State certainly seems one of those stragglers. The Rams
have been laboring lately, especially vs. the line at home, covering just
4 of their last 12 at Fort Collins, and are in tough again Saturday
afternoon when potent Houston comes calling. And since 2003, the
Rams have covered only 1 of 5 as a home dog, and overall stand a
subpar 19-30 vs. the number their last 49 on the board. As for the
Cougars, they?ve capitalized on most of their recent chances as road
chalk, covering 5 of their last 7 in that role.


SAN JOSE STATE
About this time each season, we want to begin paying special
attention to a couple of weekly calculations highlighted in our Systems
Spotlight feature, those being Pointspread Streaks and ?AFS? (Away
from Spread). And each of those identify San Jose State as a team
to watch as the Spartans make the short trip up the Bayshore
Freeway for their annual battle with nearby Stanford Saturday night.
San Jose could be in the early stages of an extending pointspread
uptick, covering its first 2 games on the board this season, and the
Spartans have recorded a noteworthy +11.50 ?AFS? mark their last two
games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal has long underachieved vs. the number
at home, dropping 14 of its last 21 vs. the line on the Farm since mid ?04.


ARIZONA
Last week?s disappointing loss at New Mexico might be a
temporary blip on the Arizona radar screen, as the Wildcats look
to get back to their winning ways Saturday at the Rose Bowl vs.
shellshocked UCLA. Remember, UA had covered 6 straight before
its slip-up vs. the Lobos. And if the Cats are getting any points this
wwek, they?ll be a featured recommendation under HC Mike
Stoops in the College Coach as Underdog system (thanks to their
16-7-1 spread mark their last 24 as the ?short?). As for the reeling
Bruins, note their poor ?20.00 ?AFS? mark the last two games after
that shellacking absorbed vs. BYU.



N.Y. GIANTS
It?s about time we start showing a bit of respect to the world
champs! After all, the New York Giants haven?t failed to cover a
pointspread since early last December, covering 8 in a row since.
Taking it back a bit further, the G-Men are now 10-1 vs. the number their
last 11 on the board, and 16-4 their last 20 against the line. So, why not
recommend them Sunday at the Meadowlands vs. struggling Cincinnati?
For the Bengals, it?s been a nightmarish beginning to the campaign,
failing to cover their first 2 out of the chute, and their spread mark is a
poor 4-11 their last 15 against the number dating to early last season.



N.O.-DENVER ?OVER?
There?s no secret about the ?totals? patterns of New Orleans and
Denver lately. They?ve both been going ?over? a lot, which figures
to happen again in Sunday?s encounter at Invesco Field. As for the
Saints, they?re ?over? 15 of their last 21 overall, while the Broncos are
?over? 18 of their last 23. Denver is also ?over? 13-5 its last 18 as host.




TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

WEST VIRGINIA at COLORADO (Thursday, September
18)?WVU had been good visiting chalk for Rodriguez (9-3-1 last 3
years), but Stewart failed his first chance in role miserably vs.
ECU. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended trends.
BAYLOR at UCONN (Friday, September 19)?Art Briles was 5-2
as visiting dog the past three years with UH. Edsall?s extended
chalk marks are good (7-2 since ?06, 10-3 since ?05, 18-7-1 since ?03).
Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on extended trends.


TEMPLE at PENN STATE?Shades has had a few close calls in
career vs. Owls but not the last 2 years, winning and covering by a
combined 78-0. Vicious Shades 12-3 vs. line last 15 as DD chalk.
But Owls off to 2-0 start vs. line TY as gradual improvement
continues under Al Golden. Tech edge-slight to Shades,
based on DD chalk mark.


UCF at BOSTON COLLEGE?O?Leary now 5-1 vs. line his last 6
as dog. BC on 4-9 spread run last 13 as chalk and 2-6 last 8 on
board for Jags after quick break from gate last season. Tech
edge-UCF, based on team trends.


OHIO at NORTHWESTERN? Cats covered opener as home
chalk vs. Cuse but NU still just 3-9 laying points at Evanston since
?03. Solich has now covered last 3 as road dog after getting W in
pair of those to open campaign, and 7-3 as road dog since ?06.
Tech edge-Solich, based on team trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI?Local rivals. Edge the past two
years to Cincy with decisive wins and covers, and Cincy has also
covered 4 of last 5 meetings. RedHawks, however, 7-1 vs. line last
8 as road dog. Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, team trends.


VANDY at OLE MISS?Vandy has covered 6 of last 7 in series,
and Bobby Johnson covered both vs. Houston Nutt (when at
Arkansas) in ?05 & ?06. Dores 11-3 as road dog since ?05, 16-7
since ?03, and 9-3 last 10 as SEC road dog. Tech edge-Vandy,
based on team and series trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA TECH?Sly Croom 7-2-1 vs.
line last 10 as road dog and 9-3-1 vs. line last 13 away.. Tech
edge-slight to Sly Croom, based on team trends.


WYOMING at BYU?BYU has dominated matters since losing to
Joe Glenn?s first Wyo team back in ?03. Since then, Cougs have
won and covered last 4, all by DD margins. Bronco 9-3 vs. line as
home chalk since ?06. Cowboys on 0-10-1 spread run dating to
early ?07 and 2-15-1 vs. number last 18 on board! Tech edge-
BYU, based on series and team trends.


LSU at AUBURN?Brutally close series of late, the last 4 all
decided by 6 or fewer, and that 30-24 LSU win LY was decided on
TD with 1 second left in game! Auburn has covered the last 3
meetings and has beaten LSU the last four times these two have
tussled at Jordan-Hare. Les Miles only 2-6-1 vs. line as visitor the
last two seasons. Tech edge-Auburn, especially if dog,
based on team and recent series trends.


ALABAMA at ARKANSAS?Close series the last couple of
years, the last 2 decided by 4 points total. Road team has covered
last 3 meetings, though Arkansas has covered 4 of last 5 in series.
Bama 2-7 as chalk for Nick since LY, 6-20 overall last 26 as chalk
dating to late ?04. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on Bama chalk
negatives.



MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS?Herd road woes continue,
just 4-19 vs. line last 23 away from Huntington. Tech edge-USM,
based on team trends.


HOUSTON at COLORADO STATE?CSU only 3-7 vs. line last 10
at Fort Collins, 1-3 as home dog since ?06. Tech edge-UH, based
on recent CSU negatives.


RUTGERS at NAVY?Rutgers own edge lately, winning and
covering last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Mids only 1-4 vs. line at
Annapolis LY, 2-7 since ?06, although Navy still 16-7-1 as dog since
?03 (but 0-2 in dog role vs. Scarlet Knights that span). Schiano was
3-0 as chalk away from home LY. Tech edge-Rutgers, based
on team and series trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA?Hokies have won and
covered last 6 as ACC visitor. Tech edge-Beamer, based on
team trends.


IOWA at PITTSBURGH?Hawkeyes just 2-8 vs. line as visitor
since ?06, 4-11 vs. number as visitor since ?05. If Wannstedt chalk,
note 1-8 spread mark last 9 in role. Tech edge-slight to Iowa,
based on Wannstedt chalk woes.


WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE?Wake has won last 2 SU
vs. FSU and has covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 in series. Grobe 14-
6 as short since ?05, 22-12 since ?03. Bowden 4-8 vs. line as
Tallahassee chalk since ?06, 5-11 in role since ?05. Tech edge-
Wake, based on team and series trends.


NOTRE DAME at MICHIGAN STATE?Road team 6-0-1 vs. line
last 7 in series. Tech edge-slight to ND, based on series
trends.


BOISE STATE at OREGON?Ducks 7-1 vs. line as Autzen
Stadium chalk since ?07, 14-3 as home chalk since ?05. Boise 6-10-
1 vs. spread as visitor since ?05. Tech edge-Oregon, based on
team trends.


UTAH at AIR FORCE?Road team has covered last 6 and 8 of
last 9 in series. Force, however, 5-0 vs. line at home under Calhoun
and 11-3 vs. line since he took over LY. Tech edge-slight to
AFA, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at TULSA?Golden Hurricane has won and
covered big its first 2 TY and has covered last 3 since the end of
?07. Tulsa has covered first 2 as DD chalk in ?08 but was 0-5 in role
LY. Lobos 3-7 vs. line last 10 on board. Tech edge-Tulsa,
based on recent trends.


BALL STATE at INDIANA?Home team has covered the last 2
years in series, and Hoosiers 7?1 as home chalk since ?03 (0-1 TY,
however). But Cards 13-3 vs. line last 16 away, 7-2 as visiting dog
since ?06. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team
trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at PURDUE?These two getting used to
one another, with their third meeting since last season. Purdue
won both LY but only covered the first meeting, as Chips covered
wild bowl game. Chips now 1-4 as visiting dog since LY. Tiller was
3-2 as Ross-Ade chalk LY but is only 4-9 vs. line in role since ?05.
Tech edge-slight to Purdue, based on team trends.


AKRON at ARMY?Army 3-7 as dog for Stan Brock, 4-10 vs.
number at West Point since ?05. Black Knights also a mere 7-17 vs.
number last 24 on board. Tech edge-Akron, based on team
trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at MARYLAND?EMU only 4-10 vs. line
last 14 as dog. Ralph, however, just 1-7 vs. line as home chalk
since ?05, and a mere 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edgeslight
to EMU, based on Fridge negatives.



MIAMI-FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M?Shannon just 4-9 vs. line
since taking over at Miami LY, although one of those covers was
easy home win over A&M LY. If Canes road chalk note 1-6 mark in
role since ?05. Tech edge-slight to A&M, based on extended
Miami negatives.


EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE?Dog has won and covered the
last two seasons. But Skip 28-12 overall vs. line at ECU since ?05.
Wolfpack and just 9-23 last 32 vs. line at Raleigh. Tech edge-ECU,
based on team trends.


BUFFALO at MISSOURI?Tigers have covered their last 8 vs.
non-Big XII opposition. Tigers 10-2 vs. line as chalk since. Tech
edge-Mizzou, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at TOLEDO?FSU 2-8 as DD chalk since ?06 (1-
3 LY), 0-3 as DD road chalk since ?06. Toledo has been better at
Glass Bowl lately for Amstutz, at least opposed to road mark, and
home team 19-7 vs. line last 25 Rocket games on board. Tech
edge-slight to Toledo, based on team trends.


RICE at TEXAS?Texas has punished Rice the last 3 years,
scoring 51 or more on each occasion and covering all of those,
covering 34-point-or-more lines in each. Mack has covered first 2
in ?08 laying 20+. Tech edge-Texas, based on series trends.


IDAHO at UTAH STATE?Idaho only 1-10 vs. line last 11 on
board, however, and mere 6-14 last 20 as dog. Utags in rare chalk
role (0-1 since ?06) and just 3-10 vs. line last 13 at Logan. Tech
edge-slight to USU, based on team trends.


TCU at SMU? SMU has covered last 2 and 4 of last 5 in series,
covering last 2 vs. Frogs at Gerald Ford Stadium. TCU on 6-1
spread run dating to late LY. Ponies were 0-6 vs. line at home LY.
Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent team trends.


FLORIDA at TENNESSEE?Urban Meyer 3-0 SU vs. Vols,
although home team has covered last 3 meetings (2 of those by
Gators). Urban Meyer 1-3 as road chalk LY, however, and just 2-
8 as visiting chalk since ?05. Vols 5-1-1 vs. line at home LY, 9-4-1
as host since ?06, and 4-0 as home dog since ?06. Tech edge-
Tennessee, based on extended team trends.


GEORGIA at ARIZONA STATE?Richt 12-7 vs. line last 19 away
from Athens. Richt also has covered all 5 chances as nonconference
visitors (most of those vs. GT) since taking over
Dawgs in ?01. Note Sun Devils 0-3 as dog for Erickson LY (0-1 as
home dog), and ASU 7-16 last 23 as dog dating to late ?03. Tech
edge-Georgia, based on team trends.



IOWA STATE at UNLV?If Rebs dog note 3-1 mark in role LY at
Sam Boyd Stadium, 9-4 in role under Sanford since ?05. Tech
edge-UNLV, if dog, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD?Tree only 7-14 vs. line as
host since mid ?04. Tech edge-San Jose, based on Tree
home negatives.


NEW MEXICO STATE at UTEP?Mumme 1-6 vs. line on road
since LY and 5-13 vs. line on road since taking over NMSU in ?05.
Also just 4-13 vs. line as road dog since ?05. Price, however, just 1-
8 as chalk since ?06, and no covers last 2 vs. Aggies. Tech edgeslight
to NMSU, based on UTEP chalk negatives.


ARIZONA at UCLA?Stoops 16-7-1 vs. line last 24 as dog., and
Cats have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late ?07 (including 34-
27 win over UCLA LY). Neuheisel, however, just 5-16-2 his last 23
as chalk when at U-Dub. Tech edge-Arizona, based on team
trends.


TROY at OHIO STATE?Trojans 7-3 as dog since ?06 and 4-2
that span getting DDs away. Trojans also 16-8 vs. number last 24
overall on board and 11-4 vs. spread last 15 away from Movie
Gallery Stadium. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.


MIDDLE TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS STATE?Ugghhh! MTSU
has owned this series, winning and covering last 5, all by DD
margins! Red Wolves starting hot in ?08 but only 3-6 as chalk since
?06. Tech edge-MTSU, based on series trends.


UL-MONROE at TULANE?Weatherbie 13-6-1 vs. line as road dog
since ?05, 17-8-1 as dog overall that span. Warhawks 9-2 as singledigit
dog that span. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.


FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MINNESOTA?Ugh! Revenge for
Gophers after losing 42-39 at Dolphin Stadium LY. Brewster,
however, 0-4 as chalk since arriving at UM in ?07. But Howard no
cover last 11 as non-conference visitor, and FAU just 4-9 as road
dog since ?06. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on
team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL?Cristobal was
3-1 as home dog LY and 2-0 getting DDs at FIU Stadium. Tech
edge-slight to FIU, based on team trends.


KENT STATE at LOUISIANA?Golden Flashes just 2-13 vs.
number last 15 on board. If Kent State favored note 2-10 mark in
role since ?05. Tech edge-Louisiana, based on KSU
negatives.


COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK


COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Alabama, AUBURN
over Lsu@, BALL STATE over Indiana, BYU over Wyoming, CINCINNATI
over Miami-Ohio@, EAST CAROLINA over NC State@, GEORGIA
TECH over Mississippi State, UL-MONROE obver Tulane, MICHIGAN
STATE over Notre Dame@, MISSOURI over Buffalo, OHIO STATE
over Troy, OREGON over Boise State@, SOUTH FLORIDA over
Florida International, TCU over Smu@, VIRGINIA TECH over North
Carolina.



COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-AUBURN* over Lsu, UL-MONROE
over Tulane, MEW MEXICO over Tulsa, NC State over East
Carolina@, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE FOREST over
Florida State, and dog in ARIZONA-UCLA game.


RIVALRY DOGS-MIAMI-OHIO over Cincinanti@, SMU over Tcu@.

POWER UNDERDOGS-ARIZONA STATE over Georgia, BOISE
STATE over Oregon@, IOWA over Pitt, NEW MEXICO over Tulsa,
TENNESSEE over Florida, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE
FOREST over Florida State, and dog in AUBURN-LSU game.


PAINFUL MEMORY-UTAH over Air Force, TENNESSEE over Florida.


POWER REVENGE-AUBURN over Lsu@, TENNESSEE over Florida.


RESTED HOME WINNERS-COLORADO over West Virginia (Thursday,
September 18), ARKANSAS over Alabama.


IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over Utah State, SAN JOSE STATE
over Stanford.


"AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...SoCal
+23.00, BYU 21.75,, MTSU 16.75, Penn St 14.75, AFA 14.25, UNLV
13.50, Cal 13.25, Minn 12.75, Tulane 12.75, Vandy 12.50, Okla 12.25,
SJSU 11.50, Utah 11.50, Okla. St 11.00, UConn 10.00, Fresno 10.00,
TCU 10.00, Texas 10.00; MINUS (-)...WSU -32.25, Ida 29.00, Rut
29.00, Va 24.40, Ohio St 21,50, UCLA 20.00, Haw 19.00, EMU 18.25,
Wyo 17.25, Syr 15.50, USU 14.75, BGSU 13.0, Pitt 13.00, SMU 12.50



POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...3-Ohio, USM, Temple, Vandy;
2-AFA, Ball, Duke, Fla, GT, ISU, MTSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou, NIU, Okla,
Okla St, Penn St, SJSU, SoCal, TCU, Tex, Tulane, Tulsa, UNLV, Wisc.
Losses...3-Mich, Syr, UAB, WSU; 2-Aub, BGSU, CMU, EMU, Haw,
Hou, Ida, Ill, Kent St, Marsh, Navy, Nev, NCS, Pitt, Rut, Stan, Utah St,
UYTEP, Va, VT, Wyo.
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2006
2,103
5
38
Cleveland
ASA

College Football Picks
9/20/2008
2:00:00 PM BRIGHAM YOUNG COUGARS (-28)
over Wyoming Cowboys
ASA 3* #320 @ BYU -28 over Wyoming, Saturday at 2:00 PM CST

BYU BIG!!


9/20/2008
2:30:00 PM TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (+7)
over Florida Gators
ASA 3* #368 @ Tennessee vs. Florida - 2:30 pm CST

Take the points and the home team in this revenge setting.


9/20/2008
2:30:00 PM MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (-8.5)
over Notre Dame Fighting Irish

ASA 6* #338 @ Michigan State (-8) over Notre Dame, Saturday, Sept. 20th

MSU rolls in this one.


9/20/2008
7:00:00 PM 7,ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
-vs-Georgia Bulldogs
ASA 3-Star #370 Arizona St. (+7) vs. Georgia Saturday, September 20 ? 7:00 PM

Go with the Sun Devils plus the points.


9/20/2008
7:15:00 PM TOLEDO ROCKETS (+7)
over Fresno State Bulldogs
ASA 3* #360 @ Toledo +7 over Fresno State, Saturday @ 7:15 PM

We?ll call for Toledo to upset an unmotivated Fresno team who is deflated after last week?s loss.





Tom Stryker

CFB High Noon Ultimate PayDay: Georgia Tech



SCOTT FERRALL

BEST IN BOLD

Cleveland -115 with Sowers over Verlander and the Tigers, who've completely melted down at the end of the yr--Leyland is suspended and not in the dugout, so jump on the Tribe

Halladay -135 and Jays over Lester and the Red Sox--Halladay has been unreal lately--almost unbeatable

Dodgers -240 over an Fran--LA is finishing off the D'Backs with the easy schedule at home this weekend--Take Kuroda here--he's been tough of late for Joe Torre's BLUE

Aaron Cook -135 and the Rockies over the D'Backs at Coors Field in the thin air

Nationals -105 and John Lannan over the Padres and Chris Young in DC

TAKE MILWAUKEE OVER CINCY (NO MATTER THE ODDS) WITH CC SABATHIA GOING FOR THE BREWERS AGAINST CUETO

BONUS SNAGS : A's over Mariners in Oakland because Carlos Silva BLOWS! (No early line)

YANKS OVER BALTIMORE--LOOK FOR THE SWEEP THIS WEEKEND AT THE BRONX IN THE FINAL GAMES EVER AT YANKEE STADIUM



LT Profits

CFB 2* San Jose State (9.0 / -110) vs Stanford
CFB 2* Idaho (5.5 / -110) vs Utah St.
CFB 2* Toledo (7.0 / -110) vs Fresno State




Teddy Covers


CFB 6* Oregon (-10.0 / -110) vs Boise St
CFB 5* Ohio vs Northwestern OVER 51.5 (-110)
CFB 3* Boston College (-10.0 / -110) vs Central Florida
CFB 3* Arizona (-3.0 / -110) vs UCLA
CFB 3* Southern Mississippi (-7.5 / -110) vs Marshall
CFB 3* Miami (Florida) (-3.0 / -110) vs Texas A&M
CFB 3* Toledo (7.0 / -110) vs Fresno State




FairWay Jay

5* Michigan State (-8.5 / -110) vs Notre Dame
4* Florida Atlantic vs Minnesota OVER 63.0 (-110)
4* Arizona (-3.0 / -110) vs UCLA
4* Utah (-9.0 / -110) vs Air Force
4* Mississippi (-7.0 / -110) vs Vanderbilt
3* Miami Ohio (11.5 / -110) vs Cincinnati
3* Georgia (-6.5 / -110) vs Arizona State
3* San Jose State (8.0 / -110) vs Stanford
3* East Carolina vs North Carolina State UNDER 44.0 (-110)




Alex Smart

4* Auburn (3.0 / -110) vs LSU
3* Action Kent (3.5 / -110) vs UL Lafayette
3* Action Eastern Michigan (22.0 / -110) vs Maryland
3* Action North Carolina (-3.0 / -110) vs Virginia Tech




*** EZWINNERS NCAA FOOTBALL ***

5 STAR: (308) PENN STATE (-28) over Temple
(Risking $550 to win $500)
11AM Central Time

5 STAR: (360) TOLEDO (+7) over Fresno State
(Risking $550 to win $500)
6PM Central Time

3 STAR: (332) NORTH CAROLINA (-3.5) over Virginia Tech
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2:30PM Central Time

3 STAR: (335) WAKE FOREST (+4.5) over Florida State
(Risking $330 to win $300)
6PM Central Time

2 STAR: (329) RUTGERS (-5.5) over Navy
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2:30PM Central Time




effersonsports Ncaa Football plays for this year. 9-3

9/18
Colorado +3.5 -130 W

9/13
NCAA FOOTBALL
BUFFALO-6.5 L
CLEMSON-18.5 L
IOWA-13.5 L
OREGON ST.-13 W
NEBRASKA-25.5 W

9/6
KANSAS-20.5 W
IOWA ST-7 -125 W
ARIZONA -23 W
FLORIDA-23 P
PENN ST.-14 -130 W
WISCONSIN-21 W
8/28
Stanford+3 W

good luck fellas





WILD BILL

Penn State -27 1/2 (5 units)
Ohio +11 (5 units)
Byu -26 (5 units)
Lsu -2 1/2 (5 units)
Rutgers -4 1/2 (5 units)
Wake Forest+4 (5 units)
Utah - 7 (5 units)
Middle Tenn St +5 (5 units)
Indiana -3 1/2 (5 units)
Eastern Michigan +21 1/2 (5 units)
Nc State +7 1/2 (5 units)
Florida Atlantic +6 1/2 (5 units)
Smu +24 (5 units)
Georgia -6 1/2 (5 units)
Stanford -9 1/2 (5 units)
New Mexico State +6 1/2 (5 units)
Ucla +1 1/2 (5 units)
Over 40 1/2 BC-UCF (5 units)
Over 41 Iowa-Pitt (5 units)
Under 60 1/2 Ball St-Indiana (5 units)
Over 64 CMU-Purdue (5 units)
Over 49 Akron-Army (5 units)
Over 69 1/2 Rice-Texas (5 units)
Over 51 TCU-SMU (5 units)
Over 47 Stanford-SJ St (5 units)
Over 63 1/2 Fla Atl-Minn (5 units)




Dr.Bob CFB

Just 2 College Best Bets this week (and 4 Strong Opinions), but I should have more starting next week when my math model kicks in.

Rotation #333 Iowa (+1) 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Rotation #389 Kent State (+3) 2-Stars at +1 or more.

Strong Opinions on Florida St -4, Iowa State +2 1/2, San Jose State +8 1/2, and Arizona -3.

2 Star Selection
**Iowa 24 PITTSBURGH (-1.0) 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
I?ll take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

2 Star Selection
** Kent State 33 UL LAFAYETTE (-3.0) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
I'll also lean over (50 points).

Strong Opinion
Arizona (-3.0) 28 UCLA 20
12:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
I?ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I?d take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

Strong Opinion
FLORIDA ST. (-4.0) 26 Wake Forest 16
04:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
I?ll consider Florida State a Strong Opinion from -5 to -3 ? and I?d take the Seminoles in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

Strong Opinion
San Jose St. 20 STANFORD (-8.5) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
I?ll consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at +7 or more and I?d take the Spartans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 or more.

Strong Opinion
Iowa St. 28 UNLV (-2.5) 24
06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
I?ll consider Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.




Norm Hitzges

NFL Regular Record: 26-6
NCAA Football Record: 39-22
NFL Preseason Record: 10-22

NCAA

Double Plays

Utah -8 vs Air Force
Georgia -7 vs Arizona St
Houston -6.5 vs Colorado St

Single Plays

Minnesota -7 vs Florida International
Mississippi -7 vs Vanderbilt
Rutgers -6 vs Navy
Boston College -10 vs Central Florida
Miami, FL -3 vs Texas A&M
UTEP -7 vs New Mexico State
Arizona -2.5 vs UCLA




Scott Spreitzer's 1ST CFB CONF GAME OF THE YEAR! *3-0, 100% w/ GOYs! Get the rest of Saturday's CFB & Sunday's NFL,

(341) Utah
(342) Air Force
Take " (341) Utah "
I'm laying the points with Utah on Saturday.

I'm laying the points with Utah, my MWC Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.




Bettorsworld


3* Vandy +7 over Ole Miss - What's a team need to do to get a little respect? Often times, just 3 games into a season, you can say big deal, a team is 3-0. They haven't played anyone. Well, Vandy opened up by beating Miami Ohio and while that's no great accomplishment, let's not forget, they weren't expected to win. They followed up by beating South Carolina who, unlike their record suggests, is a good team and will be heard from again this year in the SEC. While the win over Rice may not seem like much on the surface, it was a Rice team that was averaging 49 points per game off of wins over Memphis and SMU and Vandy shut them out completely in the 2nd half.

Now Vandy travels to take on Ole Miss, a team that had the worst defense in the SEC a year ago, a team that has a new coach with new schemes to learn and a team that Vandy beat 31-17 last year. Yet Vanderbilt finds themselves in a familiar role. 6.5 point underdogs. Not only are they 6.5 point underdogs, the line opened up 4.5 and early bettors determined that was too low and have pushed the line two full points. Rodney Dangerfield would be proud. No respect I tell ya.

Sure, historically, this one has gone to Ole Miss. Ole Miss has won 12 of the last 15 in this series. But historically, Ole Miss was better than a 3 or 4 win team. In 2003 they won 10 games. Since then they haven't won more than 4 games in a season. Speaking of 2003 when they were 10-3, they only beat Vandy 24-21. In 2004 it took overtime to beat Vandy 26-23. In 2005 they lost at Vandy. In 2006 they won by a TD and last year they lost 31-17.

There is nothing in recent history, or in this years results that suggests this game this week will be anything but close. Vandy hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. However, as we pointed out in our season preview, every single year they are a tough out. They have taken Florida to overtime, they have beaten Georgia, South Carolina two years in a row, the list of close games and upsets goes on and on and that's in years that Vandy won no more than 5 games, often times 2 games!

They have already won 3, and with that comes confidence. When you win as a team, and start 3-0, you start to expect to win. Certainly if they go down here, it figures that they won't go down without a fight. Not to Ole Miss. Again, remember who we're talking about here. The worst defense in the SEC a year ago.

The game plans of both teams going in are no secret. Run, run, run. Vanderbilt's young offensive line has been getting it done so far this year, moving guys off the ball and creating holes. Vandy has been able to run the ball and control the clock while Ole Miss has lost the time of possession battle every game so far this year. Logic tells us Vandy will be successful once again this week running the ball with QB Chris Nickson and RB Jared Hawkins. Run the ball, control the clock, shorten the game, keep it close. That's where we want to be when getting +7. Vanderbilt has been playing sound ball across the board. They haven't made mistakes, they haven't beaten themselves. They have depth on the defensive line allowing their starters to stay fresh the entire game and not tire out in the 2nd half which has long been a problem for them against SEC giants. They are the least penalized team in the SEC and are 6-1 against the spread the last 7 games against Ole Miss and 12-4 against the number as a road dog.

Ole Miss gets star defensive end Greg Hardy back this week however this week was his first in pads since the spring. Conditioning will be a factor. Ole Miss will be an improved team each time they take the field under new coach Houston Nutt. No argument here. This play simply comes down to common sense. There is nothing that suggests Ole Miss is deserving of being a 6.5 - 7 point favorite here. Quite the opposite actually. At the very least this game breaks down as dead even on a neutral field. So, unless you feel their 21-29 record at home this decade warrants a 7 point home field advantage, there's plenty of value in the line taking Vandy. Put another way, if the Ole Miss home field edge is a field goal, this line suggests Ole Miss would be a 4 point fav on a neutral field and a 1 point fav at Vandy.

Show us a football game where the talent level between the two teams is a touchdown or less and we'll show you a game that was decided by simple fundamentals. The team that makes the fewest mistakes, that team that doesn't turn the ball over, the team that is least penalized, the team that controls the clock and can run the football, wins the game.

For the first time in 24 years, Vandy is closing in on a top 25 ranking. They received 63 votes this week which places them at #26. A win here and, well, you guessed it, top 25. We've sounded like a broken record in the past by stating that when teams not used to being in the limelight, teams not used to winning, teams not used to beating certain opponents, that when they get these chances, they have to capitalize as there's no telling when those opportunities will arise again. We're not talking Florida and LSU here folks, who compete for championships every year. We're talking Vandy. They don't have to knock off a top 10 team to get there either. They have to beat Ole Miss. 3-9 a year ago. A team they have beaten 2 of the last 3 times they have played. This is within reach. At the very least this one goes to the wire. 3* Vanderbilt +7 (buy the hook if you have to)




JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY SATURDAY RELEASE
Going to give out this early play for tomorrow. Vegas has made a mistake and is quickly making up for it. This game opened 7 and has already jumped to 9.5 so I am advising my clients to get on this game before it moves anymore. We have every angle and advantage that we look for in a game. Good luck,

UTAH-9.5



DOC
7* GAME OF YEAR

7 Unit Play. #32 Take North Carolina Tar Heels over Virginia Tech Hokies (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) College Game of the Year. White and Blue dominate all the way to the bank. North Carolina 24, Virginia Tech 10.



BEN BURNS
UPSET AT HIGH NOON
I'm taking the points with FLORIDA ATLANTIC.


BEN BURNS
SATURDAY ANNIHILATOR
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I feel that this is a good matchup for them and I look for them to come away with another victory. *Annihilator


BEN BURNS
BIG GAME ALERT
SEC GOY
I'm taking the points with AUBURN. Look for homefield to continue to make the difference in this series as Auburn scores the minor upset and grabs control of the SEC West. *SEC GOY




Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: These are last years football numbers 25-12 College Football - 23-15 NFL, add that up and we were 48-27 overall in Football last year! So far this year we are 8-1 in College Football and today we have isolated our STRONGEST SELECTION SO FAR THIS YEAR! You cab take advantage of our 5000* COLLEGE FOOTBALL NON-CON GAME OF THE YEAR! Get this GUARANTEED WINNER for ONLY $35 GUARANTEED! 9/19/2008
5000* COLLEGE FOOTBALL NON-CON GAME OF THE YEAR
338 Michigan St -8 3:30 EST
 

kozski61

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Jan 15, 2006
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3Daily Winners

Troy vs. Ohio State (NCAAF)
Play: Point Spread: -21/-105 Ohio State

PLAY AGAINST a road team like Troy after allowing six points or less in last game, against opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This system is a consistent winner at 36-9 ATS, 80 percent and says back Ohio State.

Unanimous Consensus Plays (12-5-1)
Auburn
Michigan State
Utah
Toledo
San Jose State




Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our STRONGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* HIGH NOON COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANNIHILATOR today for only $25 and you will pay ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 9/20/2008
5000* HIGH NOON COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANNIHILATOR
318 Georgia Tech -7.5 12 NOON EST

Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our strongest COLLEGE FOOTBALL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* CONFERENCE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR today for only $25 and you will pay ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 9/20/2008
5000* CONFERENCE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
368 Tennessee +7.5 3:30 EST

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William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Do you WANT a WINNER? Or better yet do you NEED a WINNER? Well the KIDD has just what you need as he is featruing his QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL DOMINATOR! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER right now for just $25 and you are GUARANTEED TO WIN or there will be no charge! We are now 103-56 for +$3507 playing just $100 per game in Baseball this year! Currently on an 17-5 RUN! 9/19/2008
QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL DOMINATOR
Chicago White Sox w/Floyd -140 7:10 EST





Winning Angle SEC Game of the Year is

Tennessee




Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you ready to ROCK YOUR MAN TODAY! This is HUGE as we have isolated one of our strongest COLLEGE FOOTBALL selections EVER!!! You can get our 5000* MAC NON CONFEREBCE GAME OF THE YEAR today for only $25 and you will pay ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 9/20/2008

5000* MAC NON CONFEREBCE GAME OF THE YEAR
389 Kent +2.5 7:00 EST



Frank Rosenthal

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
904 PIRATES+110 SB
905 NYM-115 SB
914 ROCKIES-135 SB
917 BOSOX+120 SB
923 TIGERS EVEN SB
926 KC+130 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
308 PENN ST-28 SB+
322 AUBURN+3 SB+
332 NCU-3 SB
338 MICHIGAN ST-8 SB
UNDER 49 SB
342 AF+10 SB+
350 ARMY+10.5 SB
354 TEXAS A&M+3.5 SB+
361 RICE+30 SB
367 FLORIDA-7 SB+
UNDER 52 SB+
369 GEORGIA-6.5 SB
377 AZ U-3 SB
379 TROY+22 SB




Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: ONE WORD...BLOWOUT!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my SEC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $25 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 56-26 run with all selections and we were a PERFECT 9-0 in College and Pro Football last week! 9/20/2008
SEC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
316 Mississippi 7:00 EST



Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: TWO WORDS...BIG WINNER!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my PAC 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $25 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 56-26 run with all selections and we were a PERFECT 9-0 in College and Pro Football last week! 9/20/2008
PAC 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
377 Arizona -3 3:00 EST
 

kozski61

Go Leafs Go
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Jan 15, 2006
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Steven Budin-CEO

SATURDAY'S PICK
25 DIME 2-TEAM TEASER



East Carolina

Michigan State




Northcoast Totals

3' Star: South Florida/FIU under 56
3 Star: Florida Atlantic/Minnesota over 63'




Northcoast TV Play of the Day

East Carolina (-7) over NC State




Director Sports

Top Plays:
Akron -10
Utah -9
E Carolina -7

Reg:
Penn St -28.5
UL Laff -2
 

quanjin

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Forum Member
Sep 20, 2007
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Does anyone have John Ryan's plays for today?

Does anyone have John Ryan's plays for today?

Ryan's SEC 7* Monster Play of the Week

Ryan's 3-pack of 5* Monsters

He's hitting around 70% in college so far.
Thanks and good luck.:mj06:
 

Aflacc

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Jan 7, 2006
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Scranton Pa. area
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Saturday
CFB this Week: 2-1

8:15 PM EDT

5 STAR SELECTION

TOLEDO +7 over Fresno State

Still clinging to Top 25 status, the Bulldogs are back on the road for a non-conference game road game with the MAC?s Rockets on Saturday.

Fresno State opened the 2008 campaign by traveling all the way across the country to face Rutgers in New Jersey and returned to California with a convincing 24-7 victory. Following a week off, the Bulldogs were back at it again, this time against 10th-ranked Wisconsin at home and came up short in a defensive 13-10 battle, yet still maintained a place in the national rankings.

As for Toledo, after being crushed by Arizona in its opener on September 6th in Tucson, the Rockets rebounded by taking care of conference foe Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti last Saturday afternoon by a score of 41-17.

Fresno State played their guts out last weekend and managed to produce 343 yards of total offense versus Wisconsin, and yet the Bulldogs still made it into the end zone just once. A big part of the problem was that, when the offense stalled, it was left to kicker Kevin Goessling to pick of the pieces and he ended up missing three of his four field goal attempts.

Last season Brandstater was a marginal quarterback at best, getting the job done with as few mistakes as possible was pretty much his M.O. but this year the Bulldogs will need more production from him, but he may be regressing.

Aside from giving up 112 yards rushing to Badgers runner P.J. Hill, the Fresno State defense did almost everything right a weekago. Wisconsin's offense was stymied time and time again, allowed just 304 yards and converted a mere 3-of-13 on third down. However, aside from a blocked field goal attempt by Ben Jacobs at the end of the first half, the Bulldogs failed to make any impact plays that caused a turnover or a swing in momentum.

Against Eastern Michigan, the Rockets turned on the after burners by racing up and down the field for 233 yards on 36 rushing attempts, en route to the convincing win on the road. DaJuane Collins accounted for 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Although he completed just 8-of-18 passing for 114 yards in heavy rain, Aaron Opelt came alive with three TD passes.

The Toledo defense took advantage of the Eastern Michigan passing game, picking off a pair of passes and limiting the home team to just 131 yards through the air.

Fresno State entered the season with the highest of hopes - a Bowl Championship Series berth. But after the loss to Wisconsin, the Bulldogs' BCS dream is certainly a long shot at best.

The biggest question around the program is how the team responds to the adversity of losing to the Badgers and effectively ending those hopes. In the past the Bulldogs have let down after tough losses and with so much emphasis placed on the game with Wisconsin, it?s likely to happen again. Demonstrating how poorly Fresno performs after a disappointment, we note that they are:

0-12-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) off a SU loss in which they did not beat the spread by more than 11 points.

0-11-1 ATS (-13 ppg) on the road off a SU loss

0-8-1 ATS (-10 ppg) off a home SU loss

Now, instead of being the hunter, Fresno State becomes the hunted on Saturday. Toledo will be looking to make a statement and look to be in good shape, as they are 11-0 SU (+24.6 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+15 ppg) at home off scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 35 points in its last game and not favored by 32+ points. They are also 6-0 SU (+8.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a home underdog under Amstutz with less than 14 days rest off their previous game.

These teams met in 2005 at Fresno and the Bulldogs blasted the Rockets, 44-14. Toledo has not forgotten, which will only add to their motivation. The Rockets are 4-0 SU & ATS at home with revenge vs. non-conference opponents under Amstutz.

After an embarrassing blowout road loss in a special, non-Saturday meeting, underdogs at the right price have been strong under the conditions outlined in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

Play ON a Saturday team seeking revenge for a non-Saturday road SU loss of 30+ points in the last matchup vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU win of 7+ points.

Since 1991, these teams are 13-0 ATS, covering the spread by 13 ppg. With the Rockets coming on, they are catching a dispirited Bulldogs team at just the right time here, and we like their chances to not only cover the spread but to get the outright upset victory as well.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TOLEDO 34 FRESNO STATE 31



3:30 PM EDT

4 STAR SELECTION

Notre Dame +9 over MICHIGAN STATE

The Fighting Irish can match their win total from a season ago with a road win over the Spartans, and will be looking to do just that on Saturday night. Notre Dame finished a disastrous 2007 at 3-9, with their second and third wins coming in late November. Now, the Irish have a 4-game winning streak going back to last season.

Notre Dame followed an unimpressive win over San Diego State in this year?s opener with a solid 35-17 beating of Michigan last weekend. The win over the Wolverines exacted some revenge for a 38-0 loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor a season ago.

Michigan State opened the season with a 38-31 loss at California, but the team has rebounded from that setback with comfortable wins over Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic.

Notre Dame comes in brimming with confidence after taking advantage of several miscues by Michigan and scoring four touchdowns despite gaining just 260 total yards. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen managed the offense well last weekend and he threw for 147 yards and a pair of scores on 10-of-21 attempts. He was picked off twice though for the second straight game and that is an area he will need to improve upon. Still, Clausen has already thrown for five touchdowns, two shy of his total from last season. The offense line has even been impressive for the Irish, allowing no sacks through two games. That is a big accomplishment for a unit that gave up a whopping 58 sacks a year ago.

Despite allowing 388 total yards to Michigan last weekend, Notre Dame's defense was outstanding. The unit came up with countless big plays, finishing the game with six forced turnovers, including a 35-yard touchdown on a fumble return by Brian Smith. The Irish were also sound in their opener, when they limited SDSU to 345 total yards, while creating two turnovers. Their defense will certainly get tested here in East Lansing, Michigan.

In a game slowed by tough weather conditions, the Spartans used 259 yards on the ground to defeat the Owls, 17-0, last weekend. RB Javon Ringer continued his fast start to the season with a career day that consisted of 282 yards and two scores on 43 carries. Quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn't needed much last weekend with the success on the ground and he threw for just 88 yards and an interception.

After being torched for 38 points in an opening loss at Cal, the Spartans have yielded just 10 points over their last two games, although it?s been against non-BCS foes. Still, the defense is yielding 389 total ypg on the year and will get a test here from an under-rated Irish offense.

Notre Dame is usually a ?public? team that offers little line value; however, last week the Irish were getting no respect and provided great line value as a home underdog. Here, as a big road underdog they again are the right side.

The visitor has won 7 in a row SU in the series, going 6-0-1 ATS, so Notre Dame is no stranger to beating the Spartans on their home field. We also find the Irish are 4-0 SU (+7 ppg) 4-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) on the road off an underdog SU win since 2002. In the reverse role, Michigan State 0-7 ATS, failing to cover by a mammoth 17.6 ppg, providing with a very strong dichotomy angle here favoring the visitors.

Another dichotomy angle show Notre Dame is 7-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) as an undefeated underdog off an ATS win since 1999, while the Spartans are 0-4 ATS (-13.4 ppg) in the reverse role.

Michigan State is simply not in a strong spot here as they are:

0-6 ATS (-18.5 ppg) as a home favorite of less than 16 points off a SU win

0-9-1 ATS (-17.4) as a favorite of 6+ points vs. an opponent off a lined SU win

0-6-0 (-12.7) as a home favorite off 2 home games

One of our handicapping strategies that we are employing here is to play ON a team getting line value as compared to the preseason pointspread on the game.

Unless there have been injuries or some other legitimate reason for the line movement, such as the team or opponent performing far above or below preseason expectations, the team benefiting from the line move should provide plenty of value.

The preseason line on this game was Michigan State by 3. Based upon each team?s play this season, there?s simply no reason for this line to move by nearly a TD. The Irish are 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS, including an upset win over Michigan. The Spartans are 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS, losing as an underdog and winning 2 times as a favorite. Again, both teams have performed fairly close to expectations, so we are getting great line value with Irish and will gladly take the points in what should be a very hard-fought game that goes down to the wire.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 28 NOTRE DAME 27



7:00 PM EDT

3 STAR SELECTION

Ball State +3 over INDIANA

Two unbeaten teams put their perfect records at stake on Saturday when the Hoosiers host the Cardinals. Ball State has been an unstoppable force since the start of the season, winning their first three games for the first time since 1988. The Cards opened the year with a convincing, 48-14 win over 1-AA Northeastern and followed it up with strong wins over Navy and Akron.

Indiana has had an easy time with their first two matchups, pummeling Western Kentucky and 1-AA Murray State.

Nate Davis continued his outstanding play for Ball State, as the quarterback threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in leading the Cardinals to a 41-24 victory over Akron last week. Ball State finished with a whopping 491 total yards, and that led to 30 first downs. Not to be overlooked was the play of tailback MiQuale Lewis, who rushed for 154 yards and two touchdowns on 28 totes. It?s still early in the season, but Davis has proven to be one of the top signal callers in the nation, throwing for 916 yards and nine touchdowns against just three INTs.

The Ball State defense has played reasonably well, surrendering 385 total ypg and 20 ppg. The Cardinals have been able to make the big plays when it mattered, forcing six turnovers to go along with six sacks.

The Hoosiers' offensive success revolves around the team's ground game which is churning out 275 ypg. Overall, Indiana is averaging a strong 463 total ypg, and that has led to 38 ppg. Kellen Lewis has been the main source of production for Indiana, as the quarterback has not only thrown for 314 yards and two scores, but is also leading the team with 183 yards.

Defensively, the Hoosiers have been impressive, holding teams to just 215 total ypg and 8 ppg; however, we have to consider the level of competition with all of Indiana?s offensive and defensive stats. They have simply beat a 1-AA team and a Western Kentucky team that is moving from 1-AA to 1-A.

Ball State fans have been talking about the matchup for months, as this is ?David vs. Goliath? for them as Indiana is an in-state rival. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU all-time vs. the Hoosiers, but this is the Cardinals best opportunity to finally claim a win in this series.

It?s about time for Indiana to come down to earth here, as they are:

1-11 SU (-16.6 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-7.9 ppg) at home off a home game vs. an opponent off a lined SU win

0-4 SU (-16.5 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-14.9 ppg) with more than 6 days rest off a SU win and not an underdog of 17+ points

0-4 ATS since 2002 as a favorite of less than 6 points

On the other hand, Ball State is a strong 7-1 SU (+9.9 ppg) & 8-0 ATS (+10 ppg) on the road with a line between -7 & +7.

Finally, our database research reveals that underdogs looking to avenge 2 losses with the one before last being a 1-point defeat, have been more than ready, despite facing rested opponents. Such is the case for Ball State and they qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

In Games 2-9, play ON an underdog seeking revenge for a SU loss last season and a 1-point SU loss in the matchup before that vs. an opponent with 7+ days rest not off a home favorite SU loss.

Since 1982 these teams have been a tremendous 15-0 ATS. Ball State has come close before against Indiana and we look for them to finally get over the hump and Hoosiers here.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 32 INDIANA 30



7:30 PM EDT

3 STAR SELECTION

Wake Forest +5 over FLORIDA STATE

Undefeated ACC foes collide in Tallahassee this weekend as the 24th-ranked Seminoles host the 18th-ranked Demon Deacons.

Wake Forest opened the season with a blowout victory over Baylor on the road before squeaking by a vastly improved Ole Miss team in week two. The team was idle last weekend and figures to be well-rested for Saturday night's showdown.

As for Florida State, it opened the season with back-to-back games against weak opponents. After crushing Western Carolina by a 69-0 final in the opener, the 'Noles knocked off Chattanooga last weekend, 46-7. The Demon Deacons represent a major leap in competition level.

Wake Forest is averaging over 35 ppg and 362 total ypg behind QB Riley Skinner, who has completed a stellar 75% of his passes for 487 yards with 5 TDs and no interceptions. While he does not play in a wide open, pass-happy offense, Skinner is a poised performer who rarely makes a bad decision. Against the Rebels two weeks ago, Skinner completed 32-of-43 passes for 267 yards and two touchdowns.

Opponents are scoring just under 3 TDs worth of points against the Deacons, which is yielding 305 total ypg. The run defense has been solid, permitting just 100 ypg and 3.2 ypc. With eight total takeaways in 2 games and an impressive 28% success rate for opponents on third down conversion attempts, Wake is certainly doing some very good things on defense.

Judging by the stats alone, Florida State's offense appears to be an unstoppable force. After all, the team is averaging 58 ppg and 528 total ypg, having scored 15 offensive touchdowns in eight quarters of football. But it is hard to get excited about those numbers considering it was against 2 1-AA foes. Three different quarterbacks have seen time under center, and Christian Ponder has the most impressive stats with six touchdown passes and no interceptions, and he?s expected to get the start here.

Defensively, Florida State has allowed just one touchdown this season. Their two opponents have averaged 170.0 ypg, but once again it is hard to put too much stock into those statistics.

It?s amazing how far the Florida State program and expectations have fallen. It?s bad enough to schedule 1 ?Football Championship Series? team per year, but scheduling two of them in a row to open a season is an embarrassment to a once-mighty national power.

Opinions may differ on whether beating up on 2 1-AA teams prepares teams for real competition, but rather than offer ours, we can simply offer facts according the numbers from our database research which tells us that favorites of 8 points or less off 2 non-lined games are 0-8 SU & ATS since the early 1980s vs. opponents not off an underdog SU loss of 6+ points. Despite being small favorites in these games, the contests have not been close, with the favored teams losing outright by more than 3 TDs and failing to cover by more than 23 ppg on average.

The battle-tested Demon Deacons have game-planned well for the Seminoles, as they are 4-0 ATS vs. Florida State the last 4 seasons, winning the last 2 outright as underdogs, including 30-0 shutout in last trip to Tallahassee. Meanwhile, Florida State is 0-4 ATS with double revenge since 1999 and will have all they can handle here from the visitors that may be the best team in a weak ACC.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WAKE FOREST 24 FLORIDA STATE 23



12:30 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION

ARKANSAS +9 over Alabama

The Crimson Tide has won its first three games this season, with the most impressive being a 34-10 thrashing of Clemson in the opener. After a modest 14-point triumph over Tulane in week two, the Tide blew out Western Kentucky last weekend. Now, they have jumped all the way up to #9 in the latest AP poll.

As for Razorbacks, they had last weekend off due to Hurricane Ike causing their game with Texas to be rescheduled. Arkansas has played just two games thus far and won them both, although the victories have not been terribly impressive. After barely beating Western Illinois in week one by a 28-24 final, the Hogs squeaked by Louisiana-Monroe in week two, 28-27.

Alabama has run the ball with great success, as they are averaging over 200 ypg on the ground while racking up 5 ypc. The top rusher for the Crimson Tide is Glen Coffee with 242 yards and a 6.5 ypc average. Quarterback John Parker Wilson has been a steady performer as expected, completing 62% of his passes with four scores and one interception. The Alabama defense has been outstanding, surrendering less than 8 ppg and 221 total ypg.

Arkansas is averaging 28 ppg and 450 total ypg, and the vast majority of the yardage has come through the air. Casey Dick is the team's quarterback, and he has stats nearly identical to ?Bama?s QB, as he has completed 63% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. Petrino's offense proved to be explosive during his time at Louisville, and Dick is reaping the benefits of the pass-happy approach. Dick and the offense should get more comfortable and efficient with Petrino?s offense each game.

Alabama has a very young team, so it will be interesting to see how they do with a Top 10 ranking and good press. They will get a battle from an Arkansas team that is getting no respect, and if the Tide doesn?t show up with maximum focus, they could be in trouble here. As it is, Alabama is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 2-21 points vs. an opponent off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS as a conference home underdog of more than 7 points.

After 2 lackluster wins to start the season, teams have been very under-rated at the right price. Specifically, Game 3 underdogs of 3?-13 points off 2 SU wins & ATS losses are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS since 1991, blasting the spread by more than 18 ppg on average.

We look for the Razorbacks to play their best of the season here and at least keep this one close against a young Crimson Tide team that may suffer a letdown.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 24 ARKANSAS 23





7:45 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION

AUBURN +2? over LSU

In what could very well be the best game of the day, 2 SEC Top 10 teams battle with the #10 Tigers welcoming the #6 Tigers.

LSU, the defending national champions certainly enter this contest with a bulls eye on their back, as Auburn would love to knock them off. The champs have not been tested yet this season, as Les Miles' squad has routed 1-AA Appalachian State and one of the worst 1-A teams, North Texas.

Auburn has had a bit more of a challenge to start the season, including last week's 3-2 defensive struggle with Mississippi State. That followed a 34-0 shutout of Louisiana-Monroe in the season-opener and a 27-13 win over Southern Miss the following week.

Eleven of the last 18 games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, and we expect nothing less here. The home team has won eight straight dating back to 2000 demonstrating the importance of homefield in this matchup.

The defending national champs have looked sharp on the offensive side of the ball this year against inferior competition with untested quarterbacks Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee; however, they figure to be a bit in over their heads in this venue.

The LSU defense has yielded a mere 16 points in the first two games combined, but will be tested by Auburn this week. Tuberville's Tigers didn't exactly light up the scoreboard against Mississippi State last week, but the team did find a way to amass 315 yards. Turning the ball over three times certainly hindered their scoring opportunities. This is a unit that has shot itself in the foot on numerous occasions trying to work in a new spread offense.

They will be simplifying things here and get back to basics with a ground game that is the driving force of the offense. Over the first three games, the Tigers are averaging a healthy 205 ypg rushing the ball. Ben Tate has been solid thus far, averaging nearly six yards per carry and rolling up 278 yards and one TD in the first three outings. Brad Lester is a viable second option out of the backfield, netting just over four yards per carry.

While the Mississippi State game was not one for the offense to pin its hopes on, the Auburn defense was magnificent, limiting the Bulldogs to just 116 total yards of offense and six first downs.

Defensively, the two teams are obviously among the best in the country, but LSU will be without its leader in linebacker Darry Beckwith. Beckwith injured his knee in the victory over North Texas. This provides us a golden opportunity to play AGAINST a team without its starting middle linebacker. These players are usually the quarterback of the defense ? the nerve center.

"Certainly, his experience is something that you just can't measure," coach Les Miles said. "His leadership has always been good. Certainly, he's a guy that this team enjoys being the center of the defense, but in the same vein, the guys need to step in there and be responsible for playing the same way.?

The absence of a middle linebacker will not normally move the spread, but they must make split-second decisions that can win or lose a ballgame on a single play. Beckwith is an All-American talent, so his play, experience, and leadership are likely to be sorely missed here, as Miles alluded to.

If the past four games between the two are any indication of what to expect, the game will come down to the final play. Auburn has won the last two meetings on its own field by 10-9 and 7-3 scores and is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 here vs. LSU.

Despite being the reigning national champions, LSU was 0-7 ATS as a conference favorite with less than 13 days rest last season, and they are 0-7-1 as a Saturday conference favorite of less than 16 points with less than 13 days rest under Les Miles.

Auburn is as strong an underdog as LSU is weak as a favorite, as they are 9-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) as an underdog before Game 8 vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.

Many point to the Tigers pitiful scoring output last week and are ready to fade them here; however, they have bounced back strongly before off an ugly offensive showing. In fact, they are a super 8-0 ATS since 2004 off scoring less than 21 points and not favored by 41+ points.

We also have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that Auburn is active for that documents how undefeated home underdogs have come alive despite scoring less points in its last 2 games. It states:

Play ON an undefeated home underdog with less than 8 days rest off scoring less points in each of its last 2 games vs. an opponent not off same-season 4 favorite SU wins. These unbeaten home pups have been perfect since at least 1980, going 10-0 ATS.

Ultimately, it will be Auburn?s defense that wins the game, and their 3 strong defensive efforts to start the season have qualified them for another POWER SYSTEM that says:

In Game 4, play ON a Saturday undefeated home team (not a favorite of 17+ points) allowing an average of 9 ppg or less vs. an opponent off a SU win scoring less than 42 points.

Since 1996, these teams are 10-0 ATS, clobbering the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.

This figures to be a classic Auburn-LSU tussle, and we?ll side with the home Tigers here once again.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 23 LSU 21
 
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