Larry Ness' 20* Big 10 Game of the Year (off 2-0 Thurs / top-rated CFB game of the weekend)
My 20* play is on Ohio State at 3:30 ET.
Most CFB fans are probably hoping that Ohio State doesn't make it back to a third straight BCS title game, after the Buckeyes' performance in the last two. When Ohio State was humbled 35-3 by USC in Los Angeles back on September 13, a return trip to the BCS title game was the last thing on head coach Jim Tressel's mind but the Buckeyes have won four straight and do enter this game with Michigan State ranked 12th in the nation and remain unbeaten in the Big 10. Michigan State was unranked before the 2008 season began and a season-opening 38-31 loss at Cal came as no real surprise. However, the Spartans have won six straight and enter this game ranked 20th, after beating an undefeated (but probably overrated) Northwestern team last week, 37-20. I'll get to Ohio State in a minute but is MSU really a top-25 team? I say N-O! Two of the Spartans' six wins have come against Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic (a combined 3-10) plus another win came at Indiana, 42-29. The Hoosiers are one of just four current Division I-A schools which have yet to earn an ATS win (0-4-1) and one should remember that MSU win for one of this year's most dramatic "turnaround" moments. Indiana connected on a 97-yard TD pass late in the third quarter, that appeared to give the Hoosiers the lead. Instead, an OL was called for holding in the end zone, giving Michigan State a safety and a 36-29 lead. The Hoosiers never recovered. MSU's other wins this year came in home games over Notre Dame (23-7) and Iowa (16-13) plus the aforementioned win at overrated Northwestern. QB Brain Hoyer played very poorly early on, completing just 44.6 percent of his throws over the team's first four games with just one TD and two INTs. He did throw for 321 yards against Cal but averaged just 126.3 YPG over the next three. He has "picked up the pace" in his last three games (58.6 percent / 204.7 YPG / 5 TDs and 1 INT) but he is still bothered by a sore shoulder. The heart and soul of the offense is RB Ringer, who is second in the nation in rushing (158.9 YPG) and leads the nation with 14 TDs. However, he's averaged just 3.6 YPC over his last two games against Iowa and Northwestern (60 attempts) and will face an Ohio Sate defense which plays the run very well (103.6 YPG allowed / 3.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Devin Thomas (79 catches / 8 TDs) left early for the NFL, leaving Hoyer with sophomore Dell (has just 20 catches and is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury) and freshman Cunningham (19 catches) as his primary targets to go up against a veteran OSU secondary (Buckeyes are ranked 13th in defensive pass efficiency). OSU may be 6-1 but the team's 1-5 ATS mark proves the Buckeyes have underperformed in '08. However, the team was able to win at Wisconsin two weeks ago and while the offense was less-than-impressive at Purdue last week, the 'D' was in fine form (Purdue's lone score came on a 53-yard FG). Freshman QB Pryor 'exploded' on the scene with four TD passes as well as 66 yards rushing against Troy but after another solid game vs Minnesota (TD pass plus 97 yards rushing and two more TDs), has not been very productive the last two weeks. He did lead OSU on the game-winning drive in the late 4th-quarter at Wisconsin but while he's completed 69.7 percent of his throws the last two games, he's averaging only 120.5 YPG through the air, while running 29 times for only 47 yards (1.6 YPC). Beanie Wells looked very good in his first two games back (106 and 168 yards while averaging 7.6 YPC) but concerns regarding his foot returned after he gained 94 yards on 22 carries vs Purdue. In the end, I'm not even a little bit sold on MSU being an "elite" team, while the Buckeyes have been just that since 2002 (one national title and two other BCS title game losses). OSU has dominated the Big 10 since 2002, going 43-8 SU, with four of those losses coming in the '04 season. The Buckeyes have gone 25-2 SU in the Big 10 since the beginning of the '05 season and take a 12-game road winning streak in Big 10 play into this game. OSU has won six straight (11 of 13) against MSU, including a 24-17 win last year in Columbus, where the Buckeyes outgained the Spartans 422 to 185 in yards but saw the Spartans return an INT 54 yards for a TD and a fumble 25 yards for a TD. Don't expect the Spartans to be "that lucky again" and remember that the Buckeyes have won eight of their last nine road games against ranked teams.
Big 10 Game of the Year 20* Ohio State