Saturday Services ~ 9/27/08

[mrpickem]

NORTHCOAST

Power Sweep

4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3* Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6

Underdog Michigan +7 20-17

 

[mrpickem]

THE GOLD SHEET

NCAA

KEY RELEASES- COLLEGE ANALYSIS

PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois


***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20
Notre Dame reverted to recent form, as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP & 57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season). Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV?NBC (07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1) (07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)



***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17
Creative blitz and stunt packages devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation. (07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1) (07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4




***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17
Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe Paterno called his team?s 45-3 romp over Temple ?sloppy? and said he wasn?t happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions, who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV?ABC (07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1) (07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)

***************************************************

The Good Doctor

5 College Best Bets and 5 Strong Opinions this week.

Rotation #141 Stanford (+3) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars from +2 1/2 to -1.
Rotation #162 South Carolina (-25) 3-Stars at -27 or less, 2-Stars at -27 1/2 or -28.
Rotation #166 Ball State (-17 1/2) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars from -21 1/2 to -23.
Rotation #167 South Florida (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #174 Penn State (-15) 2-Stars at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinions are:
Thursday - Rotation #102 Tulane (-18) Strong Opinion at -19 or less.
Thursday - Rotation #104 Oregon State (+24 1/2) Strong Opinion at +24 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +27 or more.
Rotation #126 LSU (-24) Strong Opinion at -26 or less.
Rotation #153 Fresno State (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Rotation #163 Army (+27 1/2) Strong Opinion at +27 or more.


3 Star Selection
***BALL ST. (-17.5) 48 Kent State 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Kent State applied to a very strong 53-6-1 ATS indicator last week and still couldn?t come close to covering the spread. That?s 10 consecutive spread losses for the Golden Flashes and it?s about to become 11 in a row. Kent is a horrible defensive team that has allowed 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team and the Flashes are not going to be able to stop future NFL draft pick QB Nate Davis ? even with top WR Dante Love out. Davis has been among the very best quarterbacks in the nation this season, completing 73% of his passes for an incredible average of 10.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB). Dante Love was Davis? favorite target, but Love was seriously injured in the first half of last week?s game and will no longer be able to play football. Davis and Love had grown into the nation?s top passing duo, as Davis completed an amazing 28 of 32 passes intended for Love for 460 yards (14.4 ypa). If I take those passes out of Davis? tally then he still would average an incredible 8.4 yards per pass play and Davis gained 127 yards on 14 pass plays (9.1 yppp) after Love?s injury last week at Indiana. Kent State has allowed 66% completions and 7.3 yards per pass play to a horrible collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 4.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Davis will exploit that defense even without Love and RB MiQuale Lewis (529 rushing yards at 5.9 ypr) will also have a big day running against a Kent defensive front that has given up 5.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average just 4.4 yprp against an average team. Kent is decent offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but the absence of star running back Eugene Jarvis (1669 yards at 6.0 ypr last season and 5.2 ypr this year before getting hurt in game 3) will likely hurt that attack. Ball State has a much improved defense that has yielded 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl, so Kent?s offense and Ball State?s defense are about the same and Kent will have a difficult time keeping up with Ball State on the scoreboard. In addition to the mismatch at the line of scrimmage there is some technical analysis that supports the Cardinals. Ball State applies to a 57-18 ATS home momentum situation that is based on last week?s win at Indiana and Kent applies to a negative 22-68-3 ATS situation. Love?s injury should also serve to fire up his team, which will no doubt dedicate this game to their fallen star. I?ll take Ball State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars from -21 ? to -23 points.

3 Star Selection
***SOUTH CAROLINA (-25.0) 45 UAB 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
South Carolina hasn?t been very good offensively this season, averaging just 5.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack, but the Gamecocks have been 0.1 yppl better than average with Chris Smelley at quarterback and Steve Spurrier will take out his frustration against the nation?s worst defense. UAB has allowed 7.8 yppl in 4 games to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team and the Blazers are particularly bad against the pass, allowing 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would average 5.5 yppp against an average team. UAB allowed 9.7 yppl to Tulsa, 9.2 yppl to Florida Atlantic, and 7.4 yppl to a sub-par Tennessee offense. Even the 4.8 yppl and 10 points that UAB allowed to Alcorn State last week is bad when you consider that Alcorn State is one of the worst offensive teams in Division 1AA ball and would average just 2.7 yppl and 0 points against an average Division 1A defense. While South Carolina finally gets to have some fun on offense the ferocious Gamecocks? defense (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team) should put the clamps on UAB quarterback Joe Webb, who is a below average passer (6.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp) but has run for 443 yards on 55 rushing plays (8.1 yprp). UAB has only faced one better than average defensive team and the Blazers scored just 3 points in that game at Tennessee. South Carolina?s defense is much better than Tennessee?s defense, so Webb won?t generate too much offense. My ratings favor the Gamecocks by 35 points and Steve Spurrier?s teams at Duke, Florida, and South Carolina are a combined 86-54-2 ATS (61%) as a favorite of 35 points or less. Spurrier is also 5-1 ATS at South Carolina when facing a team with a losing record. I?ll take South Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars from -27 ? to -28 points.

3 Star Selection
***Stanford 30 WASHINGTON (-3.0) 21
07:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Washington has faced a tough schedule of teams (Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma), but that doesn?t hide the fact that the Huskies are a bad team. Washington has been out-gained by an average of 4.3 yards per play to 7.6 yppl in those 3 contests, which is bad even when you consider that Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma would combine to out-gain an average team 6.4 yppl to 4.6 yppl. The Huskies? Jake Locker is an outstanding talent, but all of last year?s top receivers are gone and Locker has averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback). Jake can still run the ball (229 yards on 37 rushing plays), but the running backs have been horrible and Washington?s overall rushing numbers are just average (4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp). Stanford has a solid defense that has allowed 5.2 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit and the defense has been better the last two weeks with the addition of LB Nick Macaluso, who missed the first two games of the season. Stanford?s offense is hindered by the poor quarterback play of Tavita Pritchard (4.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp), but running back Toby Gerhart has run for 407 yards at 5.7 ypr and he should have another big game against a weak Huskies? defensive front that?s surrendered 6.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average team. Washington can?t defend the pass either (9.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 7.4 yppp), so Pritchard should have decent success through the air too. Stanford is actually a much better offensive team than Washington is and the defensive edge for the Cardinal is huge (as well as the special teams edge). Not only is Stanford the better team but the Cardinal apply to an 88-35-1 ATS subset of a 248-132-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that has been very good to me over the years and Washington is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons, including 0-5 straight up their last 5 in that role. I?ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ? to -1

2 Star Selection
**S. Florida (-9) 31 NO CAROLINA ST. 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
South Florida is 0-3 ATS this season, but the Bulls are in a good spot to play a good game this week against an NC State team due for a letdown after their overtime win over East Carolina. NC State applies to a negative 42-78-1 ATS situation that plays against home underdogs after a straight up win as a dog of 7 points or more and the Wolfpack will be hurt by the loss of top defensive player Nate Irving, who injured his leg in the second half of last week?s win. Starting quarterback Russell Wilson is also out indefinitely, but Wilson wasn?t really that productive and Harrison Beck probably won?t be any worse. Beck has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play on 209 pass plays since last season (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he has thrown a horrendous 13 interceptions on just 214 career pass attempts (6.1%, which works out to 2 per game). South Florida has been just mediocre defending the pass so far this season, but Beck shouldn?t do too much damage and the Wolfpack aren?t going to be able to run against a dominating USF defensive front that has allowed just 3.1 yards per rushing play in 3 games against Division 1A opponents (who would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average team). South Florida?s offense has only been 0.2 yards per play better than average in 3 Division 1A games, but they played it pretty conservatively last week in a letdown spot against Florida International (which followed their thrilling win over Kansas) and I actually rate the Bulls? attack at 0.5 yppl better than average. NC State?s defense has been worse than average through 4 games (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) and that unit is likely to get worse without Irving, who leads the team in tackles, has 25% of the team?s tackles for loss and 28% of the team?s passes defended with 3 of those being interceptions. South Florida applies to a very strong 40-3 ATS subset of a 245-130-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator and my math model suggests that the line is fair, as I favor USF by 8 ? points despite the Bulls playing below their potential so far. I?ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and I?d make USF a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.

2 Star Selection
**PENN ST. (-15.0) 40 Illinois 16
05:10 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Penn State has won their 4 games by an average score of 53-10 and the Nittany Lions still appear to be an underrated team. Perhaps people question the strength of a schedule that includes Coastal Carolina, Syracuse and Temple. My math model compensates for strength of opponent and the Nittany Lions rank among the top 5 teams in the nation in my ratings. Penn State did host a pretty good Oregon State team (the Beavers are underrated because they lost to Stanford in a game they actually dominated from the line of scrimmage) and the Lions out-gained the Beavers 7.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl in a 45-14 victory, so Paterno?s club has proven themselves against a team of similar caliber to Illinois. By the way, Illinois faced two horrible teams in their 3 games and the Illini only out-gained Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette 5.9 yppl to 4.6 yppl, which is a far cry from Penn State?s 7.0 yppl to 3.8 yppl advantage against their schedule. Illinois did play very well against Missouri (6.9 yppl to 6.7 yppl allowed), but quarterback Juice Williams has followed up his incredible 409 yards at 8.7 yards per pass play performance by averaging just 5.2 yppp against Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette, which is a game they nearly lost. Overall, Williams has been just 0.3 yppp better than average (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback), which is slightly better than he was last season (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Illinois certainly doesn?t run the ball as well this season (5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team) as they did when they had Rashard Mendenhall toting the rock and I don?t see the Illini doing much damage against a dominating Penn State defense that has allowed just 2.9 yprp and 3.9 yppp to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp and 5.0 yppp against an average defensive team (after factoring in that they faced Temple?s backup quarterback for most of last week?s game). Now the Lions get their best defensive player, DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks and 21.5 total tackles for loss last season), back after serving a 3 game suspension. Penn State?s offense is also very good (7.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Lions great rushing attack (279 yards per game at 6.7 yprp, against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) will thrive against an Illinois defensive front that has allowed 5.6 yprp to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team. If Eastern Illinois can run for 211 yards at 6.6 yprp against the Illini I just don?t see how Penn State and their dominating offensive line can be stopped. The Illini have been good in pass defense (5.4 yppp against teams that would average 6.6 yppp) but they are just 0.1 yppl better than average overall and Penn State should have no trouble moving the ball. My ratings favor Penn State by 24 ? points in this game and using this year?s games only would favor the Lions by 32 ? points. Penn State reminds me a lot of Kansas last season, as the Jayhawks started the season with dominating wins over weaker teams while the public questioned how good they really were because of their schedule. My math model picked Kansas every week and the Jayhawks covered the spread in their first 11 games. Penn State is a very good team and that will be proven over and over again this season. My only concern is Illinois coach Ron Zook?s history of success against good teams. Excluding Zook?s first year at Illinois in 2005 (when he didn?t have any talent), Zook?s teams at Florida and Illinois are 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play, including a straight up win at Ohio State last season. Penn State, however, is 17-4-1 ATS the last few years as a favorite of 9 points or more and the Paterno is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more in revenge games - so the team trends are about even - and Penn State applies to a solid 87-34-1 ATS statistical profile indicator. I?ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinion
TULANE (-18.0) 39 SMU 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
June Jones hasn?t had the instant magic at SMU as he did in his first season at Hawaii back in ?99 (from 0-12 in ?98 to 9-4 in ?99), as the Mustangs young quarterbacks are struggling in his run-and-shoot attack. Freshman starter Bo Levi Mitchell has been decent on a yards per pass attempt basis (7.1 ypa), but he takes too many sacks and has thrown 10 interceptions in 4 games. Overall the Mustangs have averaged a respectable 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but the interceptions figure to keep on coming with a freshman at quarterback against a good defense. While Jones hasn?t been a miracle worker at SMU, new Tulane defensive coordinator O?Neill Gilbert has turned the Tulane defense into a very good unit. The Green Wave started the season by holding Alabama to just 173 total yards at 3.6 yppl and they to nearly upset East Carolina while limiting the Pirates? good attack to just 5.2 yppl. The Green Wave finally got their first win of the season with a 24-10 win over UL Monroe last week while yielding just 200 total yards. Tulane has given up just 4.6 yppl in 3 games to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team and the Wave pass defense has been especially good (just 4.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.5 yppp), which matches up nicely with a pass-heavy SMU attack. Tulane has averaged 4.3 sacks per game and they should harass Mitchell into plenty of mistakes in this game. Tulane hasn?t been much offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), but SMU has a horrible defense that?s surrendered 6.7 yppl (to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average team), including giving up 6.0 yppl and 36 points to a bad Texas State offense and 6.6 yppl and 48 points to a sub-par TCU attack last week. My math model favors Tulane by 18 ? points and the Green Wave apply to a 55-24-3 ATS home momentum situation that plays on teams coming off their first win of the season. SMU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 4-22 ATS early season angle based on their bad defense. I?ll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at -19 points or less.

Strong Opinion
OREGON ST. 16 USC (-24.5) 34
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
USC has been dominant in their first two games, beating the crap out of a bad Virginia squad 52-7 and then taking care of a very good Ohio State team 35-3. The Trojans are certainly the best team in the nation based on their first two games, but teams that impressive in their first two games can often become overrated. In fact, game 3 road favorites of 6 points or more are just 10-27 ATS if they won and covered as favorites in each of their first two games, including 1-11 ATS if they covered the spread in both games by more than 9 points. USC also applies to a negative 11-45 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Oregon State applies to a 39-4-1 ATS subset of a 99-37-3 ATS rested home underdog situation that is 23-1-1 ATS when applying to underdogs of 7 points or more. While USC is obviously a very strong team on both sides of the ball and special teams, the Beavers may be a bit underrated. Oregon State was crushed 14-45 at Penn State, but the Beavers? loss at Stanford was misleading (they out-gained the Cardinal 490 yards to 306 yards) and Oregon State rates 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for the level of opposition faced. Quarterback Lyle Moevao is posting very good numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and Sammie Stroughter (21 catches in 3 games) and Shane Morales (22 catches) form one of the best receiving duos in the Pac 10. The Beavers won?t be able to run, but they should have some success throwing the football. My ratings favor USC by 22 points and the line has gone from 21 ? points to 25 points ? so there is line value on the side of the Beavers in addition to the strong situation. The only problem I?ve got with this game is USC?s 18-5 ATS record in games after a bye (including bowl games) under coach Pete Carroll, including 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points ? so the off week probably negates the possibility of a letdown. However, the Trojans are also just 4-11 ATS as a conference road favorite of more than 10 points after a win when they don?t have revenge (2-2 ATS off a bye). The situation favoring Oregon State is just too strong to ignore and I?ll consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more and I?d take Oregon State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Army 12 TEXAS A&M (-27.5) 34
09:30 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Army is the worst offensive team in Division 1A football, as the Cadets have averaged just 3.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. However, Army?s run heavy attack (78% runs) should have decent success today against an A&M defensive front that has allowed opponents to average 6.5 yards per rushing play (those opponents would only average 4.6 yprp against an average team). If Army can run for better than the 3.7 yprp that they?ve managed so far this season then they can sustain a few drives and eat up the clock in the process. Teams that run a large majority of the time are generally good bets as huge underdogs in part because running the ball eats up more clock and usually leads to fewer turnovers (which are normally a big problem with huge underdogs). Texas A&M has been well below average both running (3.9 yprp) and throwing the ball (5.5 yppp) and the Aggies are 0.7 yppl worse than average overall on offense (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Army is pretty good defending the run (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), but the Aggies should move the ball through the air pretty easily in this game against a Black Knight secondary that has given up 7.5 yards per pass play to teams that would average just 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Texas A&M by just 22 points in this game and I?ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +27 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Fresno St. (-7.0) 32 UCLA 20
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
UCLA has been out-played in every game this season and the Bruins were lucky to get their one win over Tennessee (they were out-gained 4.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl by the Vols). I don?t see that trend changing today against a good Fresno State team that survived their letdown game last week at Toledo (a 55-54 OT win). The Bulldogs have been 1.1 yppl better than average offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) with a good balance of run (188 yards at 5.5 yprp) and pass (207 yards at 7.2 yppp) and veteran quarterback Tom Brandstater rarely makes mistakes (just 6 interceptions on 416 pass attempts since last season). UCLA?s defense has barely been better than average so far this season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game. That is not likely to be the case for UCLA?s offense, which has managed just 3.9 yppl in 3 games this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl to an average attack). Fresno is average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) and will be a bit without two of their defensive linemen this week, but UCLA doesn?t appear capable of moving the ball consistently enough to keep up with Fresno State. My ratings favor Fresno State by 12 ? points and using this year?s games only would predict a 17 ? point margin in favor the Bulldogs. UCLA is 11-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or more since 1989 (1-0 this year) and Fresno State is only 3-9 ATS as a non-conference favorite under Pat Hill, so I?ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I?ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
LSU (-24.0) 37 Mississippi St. 7
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Mississippi State was 4-0 in close games last season (i.e. games decided by 7 points or less) so their 8-5 record is a bit misleading and is the reason the Bulldogs were overrated heading into this season. Miss State was just an average team last season, rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average on defense. This year?s team is even worse offensively so far, averaging 4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, and that unit has managed just 7 points total in games against Auburn and Georgia Tech the last two weeks (and they scored just 14 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense in their only other game against a Division 1A opponent, which also resulted in a loss). LSU?s defense is not as good as it?s been in recent years, but the Tigers are still very good on the stop side of the ball and that unit has allowed just 4.1 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. Mississippi State may give more playing time to quarterback Tyson Lee, who has completed 67% of his 45 passes, but Lee?s compensated yards per pass play number (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) is only 0.1 yppp better than Miss State?s team average ? so Lee doesn?t appear to be the answer (although he hasn?t thrown an interception and Carroll has thrown 6 picks). Expect another single digit scoring effort from the Bulldogs in this game. LSU may also be changing quarterbacks, as redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee played very well in the 2nd half of last week?s comeback win at Auburn after starter Andrew Hatch was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Lee has averaged a sparkling 7.6 yppp on 50 pass plays (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp) and he gives the Tigers a better passing option to go along with their great rushing attack (6.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team). Mississippi State is once again solid in pass defense (4.6 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppp), but the Bulldogs were ripped for 439 yards on the ground last week by Georgia Tech at an incredible 8.3 yprp. I actually think that game was an aberration since the Bulldogs aren?t used to seeing the option being run in the SEC, but LSU should still be able to get good yardage on the ground and gradually extend the margin in this game. LSU actually applies to a very strong 74-16-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator, but the Tigers are a surprising 0-10 ATS in conference home games following a victory under coach Les Miles and they could certainly suffer a letdown this week after last week?s showdown with Auburn. My math model favors LSU by 30 points in this game, so the Tigers can still cover even with a bit of a letdown, and that 74-16-1 ATS match-up indicator is too good to ignore. I?ll consider LSU a Strong Opinion at -26 points or less.

 

[mrpickem]

Pointwise Phone Plays

W Mich(2*)
Cincy
N Mex st
W Virginia


GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SELECTIONS - a.k.a. Nationwide Publishing

1.5 units = #109 WESTERN MICHIGAN
1 unit = #107 NAVY
1 unit = #117 NORTHWESTERN
1 unit = #142 WASHINGTON
1 unit = #151 MARYLAND
1 unit = #188 OKLAHOMA STATE



Jim Feist

Blowout Game Of Week Purdue :mj07:

 

[quanjin]

Does anyone have John Ryan's 10* SEC Monster?

Does anyone have John Ryan's 10* SEC Monster?

Ryan's top rated 10* SEC Monster Game of the Month

Thanks and good luck.:mj06:

 

[quanjin]

Any Root?.....thanks.

Any Root?.....thanks.

He's due after last weeks debacle.

 

[kozski61]

WILD BILL

Stanford +3 1/2 (5 units)
Georgia-7 (5 units)
Lsu -24 (5 units)
Western Kentucky +20 1/2 (5 units)
Washington State +21 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas+27 1/2 (5 units)
East Carolina-10 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas State -1 (5 units)
Unlv -4 (5 units)
San Diego State -11 (5 units)
Nc State -8 1/2 (5 units)
Troy +16 1/2 (5 units)
Tcu +17 1/2 (5 units)
California -26 1/2 (5 units)
Auburn -6 (5 units)
West Virginia -14 (5 units)
Iowa -8 1/2 (5 units)
Hawaii-San Jose State Over 49 (5 units)
Penn St-Illinois Over 58 (5 units)
Georgia-Alabama Over 44 1/2 (5 units)
Wake Forest-Navy Over 54 (5 units)
Indiana-Michigan State Over 49 1/2 (5 units)
Washington-Stanford Over 52 1/2 (5 units)
Nebraska-Virginia Tech Over 45 1/2 (5 units)
LSU-Mississippi St Over 39 1/2 (5 units)
WV-Marshall Over 51 1/2 (5 units)





Armvin Sports Cfb

9/27/2008 West Virginia -14

9/27/2008 San Jose State 3



MJP sports CFB

9/27/2008 VIRGINIA TECH 7.5




VSAO - Vernon Croy CFB

9/27/2008 SAN JOSE STATE 3



Pointwise College Key Releases

1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14




CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
?a considerable amount of time,? with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed 3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls 56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his 23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403 yards in the Broncos? last 3 games. WMU?s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against the Owls last week). Temple?s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn?t in good health, either, as four starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13

10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
SCOUT s report last week?s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O?Brien. N.C. State had been giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for. The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall.
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21

10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in ?the pits,? is one of the few teams that figures to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina?s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red Elephants haven?t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban?s tenure.
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20

10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Big Ten SCOUT s tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week, as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines? improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame) to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident, hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7. Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with Wolverines? speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3 FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20



HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (+Cool at Iowa?Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...OHIO STATE (-18?) vs. Minnesota?Buckeyes already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...OKLAHOMA (-1Cool vs. Tcu?Sooners, who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam Bradford running OU?s no-huddle offense...NEW MEXICO STATE (+3?) vs. New Mexico?With Lobos? Donovan Porterie gone for the season, QB edge in this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State?s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...WASHINGTON (+12) at Dallas?Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.





THE GOLD SHEET

NCAA

KEY RELEASES- COLLEGE ANALYSIS

PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois


***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20?Notre Dame reverted to recent form,
as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP & 57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season). Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV?NBC (07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1) (07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)



***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17?Creative blitz and stunt packages
devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation. (07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1) (07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4




***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17?Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe
Paterno called his team?s 45-3 romp over Temple ?sloppy? and said he wasn?t happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions, who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV?ABC (07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1) (07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)




NORTHCOAST

Power Sweep

4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17





Power Plays


CFB:
4* Pittsburgh
4* Michigan State
4* LSU
4* N. Illinois
4* Notre Dame
4* Ohio State
4* Nebraska (if line is 7 or less)
4* California
4* Georgia (if line is 7 or less)
4* Bowling Green
4* Oregon
4* South Carolina
4* South Florida
4* FSU
4* New Mexico State
4* San Diego State
4* Kansas State
4* Texas





SCOTT FERRALL

Mich St -9 to IU

Northwestern +8 from Iowa

North Carolina +7.5 from Miami

Ol Miss +23 from Florida

Mississippi St +24.5 from LSU--if they play like they did against Auburn--the Bulldogs will cover on Home Coming at Baton Rouge

Central Mich -6.5 to Buffalo

Minnesota +17.5 from Ohio St

Purdue +2 from Notre Dame

Va Tech +7 from Nebraska

Washington -3.5 to Stanford

Clemson -11.5 to Maryland




JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY FOOTBALL RELEASE
Try to get on this game ASAP.
SATURDAY NCAA FOOTBALL
MIAMI-7 -125 (Try to buy this line down to 6.5 or 7. It will go up. Play small at 7.5 or Cool





PREGAME PODCAST
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Panthers
Buffalo Bills
Ole Miss
Indiana




Ness 25*- Central Michigan




Spreitzer 25*- Washington Huskies




Ron Raymond
1 2008-09-23 RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Pick # 1
Ohio State (-18.0)




Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
188 Oklahoma St. -17.0 (-110) BetUS vs 187 Troy

Matty O'Shea | CFB MoneyLine Single-Dime Bet
179 Nevada (+160) BetUS vs 180 UNLV

Matty O'Shea | CFB Total Double-Dime Bet
146 Georgia / 145 Alabama Under 45.0 BetUS



BEN BURNS
CFB BEAT DOWN - BLOWOUT GAME OF MONTH

I'm laying the points with OHIO STATE. Blowout GOM


BEN BURNS
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NON CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. *Non-Conf. GOM


BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL

I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. *Main Event




Dr. Bob CFB

5 College Best Bets and 5 Strong Opinions this week.

Rotation #141 Stanford (+3) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars from +2 1/2 to -1.
Rotation #162 South Carolina (-25) 3-Stars at -27 or less, 2-Stars at -27 1/2 or -28.
Rotation #166 Ball State (-17 1/2) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars from -21 1/2 to -23.
Rotation #167 South Florida (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #174 Penn State (-15) 2-Stars at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinions are:
Thursday - Rotation #102 Tulane (-1Cool Strong Opinion at -19 or less.
Thursday - Rotation #104 Oregon State (+24 1/2) Strong Opinion at +24 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +27 or more.
Rotation #126 LSU (-24) Strong Opinion at -26 or less.
Rotation #153 Fresno State (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Rotation #163 Army (+27 1/2) Strong Opinion at +27 or more.


3 Star Selection
***BALL ST. (-17.5) 48 Kent State 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take Ball State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars from -21 ? to -23 points.

3 Star Selection
***SOUTH CAROLINA (-25.0) 45 UAB 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take South Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars from -27 ? to -28 points.

3 Star Selection
***Stanford 30 WASHINGTON (-3.0) 21
07:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ? to -1

2 Star Selection
**S. Florida (-9) 31 NO CAROLINA ST. 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and I?d make USF a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.

2 Star Selection
**PENN ST. (-15.0) 40 Illinois 16
05:10 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinion
TULANE (-18.0) 39 SMU 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
I?ll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at -19 points or less.

Strong Opinion
OREGON ST. 16 USC (-24.5) 34
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
The situation favoring Oregon State is just too strong to ignore and I?ll consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more and I?d take Oregon State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Army 12 TEXAS A&M (-27.5) 34
09:30 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
My ratings favor Texas A&M by just 22 points in this game and I?ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +27 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Fresno St. (-7.0) 32 UCLA 20
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
LSU (-24.0) 37 Mississippi St. 7
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll consider LSU a Strong Opinion at -26 points or less.




Bettorsworld

3* Alabama +7 over Georgia - There are still some 7's out there. In some spots you'll have to lay -115 to get it, but you want 7 here, not 6.5. This game has all the indications of being a classic SEC primetime battle that comes down to a last second field goal to win it. As a matter of fact, there's far more evidence to support that outcome than a one sided affair.

One glaring reason is Alabama's history of playing close games. While Nick Saban is getting a lot of credit for this due to last years results, a closer look shows us that perhaps the talent in general, at Alabama over the years, deserves the real credit. For instance, one stat being thrown around this week by tout sheets is that Saban and Bama only lost one game by more than a touchdown last year, in Saban's first year. But dig a little deeper and you'll find plenty of close games before Saban got there. How about this. If you gave Alabama +7 points in every game for the last 5 years, not including this year, they would be 41-13 against the spread. If you just took the last 3 years, they would be 26-5 ATS.

Close games and Alabama go hand in hand. The important thing to remember is that during that 5 year stretch, Alabama had some mediocre results in the win loss column. 4-9, 6-6 and 6-7 mixed in with 2 winning years. So while Bama was having losing years, and firing coaches, they were still keeping it close on the scoreboard. That's a testament to the talent that goes to Alabama. In Sabans first year, they started turning some of those close losses into wins. This year their wins aren't even close, winning by an average margin of 36-9 and while the competition level can be questioned, they did knock of Clemson in week one.

People like to mention Quarterbacks and Running Backs when they talk about a football team and their successes or failures, but the unsung heroes are always the offensive and defensive lines. Without the guys in the trenches, we wouldn't know the names of these star QB's and Backs. This is precisely where Alabama is getting it done, both lines. If you've watched ESPN at all this week you've likely seen footage of Bama Nose Tackle, 365 pound Terrence Cody. This kid can disrupt an entire offense singlehandedly. While Georgia will no doubt spend some extra time on him this week, what can you really do? Focus too much on him and that opens the door for someone else to get to Georgia QB Matt Stafford.

There is no knock on Georgia here. But there's clearly more pressure on them. They were handed a lofty #1 ranking before a single game was played this year. Often times teams have a hard time living up to expectations when that happens. But, so far so good. We really have just two games to judge, last week at Arizona State and their previous game at South Carolina. They dominated Arizona State last week and held South Carolina to just 18 yards rushing but the Gamecocks were able to move the ball through the air to the tune of 271 yards

Georgia's home field advantage figures to be even more pronounced this week. It's their "blackout game". It's only happened 3 times in modern history. The team will wear it's black jerseys as will every person who walks through the gates of the stadium. It's a prime time, National TV affair and the crew from ESPN will be their live all day. The place will be a mad house. There's a reason they call it a home field advantage and that advantage WILL come into play Saturday Night.

All the same, we're comfortable taking a touchdown with Bama. If this were a court case being decided before a jury, all the evidence would be pointing towards a close game with an outright upset not an impossibility. These are the kinds of games we like to play. Smash Mouth, old fashioned SEC football. Talent on both sides of the ball. Neither team beating themselves. Both teams are plus in turnovers with Bama at +4 and Georgia at +3. The talent in this one is even. Mistakes and big plays will decide this one. We'll take our chances. 3* Alabama +7





2* Tennessee +6.5 over Auburn - If handicapping football games were easy, we could use logic as simple as the following and do quite well. Tennessee lost to UCLA who then got blown out 59-0 by BYU. Then Tennessee beat a weak UAB team before getting blown out once again by Florida last week. On the other hand, Auburn started out 3-0 with a defense playing superb ball, and SHOULD have won last week at home against LSU to go 4-0. Easy stuff. Automatic play on Auburn huh? Well, maybe not.

These are the types of situations that sure aren't easy to play as a bettor. But they can provide us with some extra value due to the results of both squads year to date. Let's first take into consideration the emotional state of these two teams. Auburn was sky high last week for LSU. National TV audience. Chance to go 4-0 and knock off LSU. What makes it worse is that they had the lead a couple of times and should have won the game. The loss totally deflated this team. To quote coach Tuberville, "We?ve got a disappointed bunch of guys in the locker room. We felt like the way we played at times, we should have won it. They made a few more plays than we did"

Tennessee on the other hand figures to be loose. What do they have to lose? Everyone thinks they are terrible. While they also had a disappoint result last week, it's a little different when the score is 30-6 and you were never in the game to begin with. It's disappointing, sure, but not as disappointing as the Auburn loss. The Vols had already tasted defeat once this season and no one was mentioning their names and National Title in the same breath.

So, so far we have a slight mental edge in favor of the Vols and we have some added value in the line as a result of the Vols score last week not being close while Auburn could have won their game. But how about the talent that these two bring to the table? Well, first let's revisit last season. In case anyone forgot, the Vols started out last season in similar fashion. In their first 3 games, they were blown out by Cal and by Florida and beat So Miss to start 1-2. Just like this year, they were calling for Fulmer to be fired (someone called a radio show Fulmer was on this week and asked if he was going to resign) The Vols responded to last years 1-2 star by winning 8 of their next 9 games and landing themselves in the SEC title game.

Fulmer gets bashed quite a bit. But his teams have always responded for him when their backs were up against the wall. In 2005 they went 5-6 which is unacceptable in Vol Land. Fulmer was all but done if he didn't produce. The team responded with a 9-4 mark in 2006 and the last years 10-4 capped with Bowl game win over Wisconsin. You don't last 17 years in Tennessee without doing something right.

The Vols lost QB Eric Ainge which has hurt. But there's 8 starters on this offense from a year ago and six on the defensive side of the ball. This team will score some points this year you can be sure of that. Which brings us to where we feel the Vols have a shot this week. The Tennessee defense actually played well last week. Sometimes the score on the scoreboard doesn't tell the whole story. They held Florida to just two offensive touchdowns. Florida had a few field goals and a punt return for a TD. 3 Turnovers and a ton of penalties added to the Vols problems. Each team had 16 first downs and about 250 yards of total offense.

Auburn on the other hand, came back down to earth a tad defensively against the first real offensive threat it has faced this year. They gave up 178 rushing yards and 220 thru the air while offensively they had just 70 yards on the ground. So this defense has some holes. As long as this Auburn offense is a work in progress, it opens the door for teams like the Vols to stay close. If the Vols can slow down Tebow and the Gators they should be able to handle a brand new Auburn spread offense with just a few games under their belts.

The potential to keep it close combined with the mental edge the Vols are likely to have has us taking the +6.5 here. To use another quote, this one from Auburn QB Chris Todd - "It was real exciting. There?s nothing like it,? Todd said. ?The adrenaline rush, playing on that stage was awesome. You?d like to win, but it came down to the end, and those are the type of games you like to play in"

That was last week. Now that the adrenaline rush has worn off, do you think Auburn will be as high for the Vols this week? Or perhaps a little flat?

2* Tennessee +6.5




Bettorsworld

3* San Jose +3 over Hawaii - One of the most important stats for any handicapper to be aware of is turnovers. It should come as no surprise that there is a direct correlation between wins and losses and turnover differential. Not just wins and losses straight up, but wins and losses against the spread as well. Sure, in college ball, there are plenty of games where simple talent wins out. But all things being equal, when two teams tangle where the talent level is fairly even, you can be sure that the deciding factor will be a mistake. Most likely a turnover.

Turnovers are rarely accidents. Sure, every once in a while a simple flub will happen. A drop. A wet ball. But most of the times turnovers are created. A defense creates turnovers because they get after the ball and hit hard. A defense creates turnovers because the pass rush is good and they hurry the Quarterback and because the pass coverage is so good downfield that opposing QB's are constantly throwing into coverage. Special teams creates turnovers as a result of great kicking team coverage getting downfield in a hurry and getting after the ball.

Likewise, turnovers are created by the offense and the coaching staff. A poorly coached team, where the left hand doesn't know what the right is doing, generally turns the ball over. A receiver may run a wrong route. A back may go left when the play is to the right and so on and so on. Which brings us to Hawaii. Hawaii is dead last in the nation in turnover margin at -9. To be fair, they had to play Florida in week one and they did turn the ball over 6 times in that one, but there may be more to the story than just getting blown out by one of the best teams in the country.

Hawaii figured to be hurting coming into this year. They have the fewest returning starters in the WAC and a brand new coaching staff including the head man Mcmackin who was the defensive coordinator last year. The new offensive coordinator was a high school coach last year. So we have new coaches, new players and of course new schemes to learn which in turn creates a great opportunity for their to be confusion and ........turnovers. Gone are June Jones and Colt Brennan as well as several other key pieces to the 12-1 season a year ago. No shame in the loss to Florida but they also lost to Oregon State 45-7 and Oregon State lost to Stanford and was blown away by Penn State.

San Jose State on the other hand has played some competitive football at times this year. They trailed 14-12 at Nebraska early in the 4th quarter until a kick return swung the momentum in that one and Nebraska scored 3 td's in the 4 quarter to win 35-12. Statistically, the game was dead even across the board. Last week at Stanford they had a 10-7 lead at the half and trailed 13-10 after 3 before giving up 10 in the 4th quarter. They also own wins over Cal Davis and San Diego State. If there's a problem at San Jose, it's in maintaining a lead late in games.

Huge coaching edge for San Jose. Dick Tomey took Arizona to 7 Bowl games in the 90's and has won where ever he has been, including Hawaii. He also guided this San Jose team to as 9-4 mark in just his 2nd year here, 2006. Again, a well coached team is not likely to beat themselves. Also, having coached in Hawaii, he knows how to handle his kids once there. Knows the distractions and what to keep them away from to maintain focus.

Ultimately, we doubt Hawaii is as bad as they have looked. However, we don't think they are very good either. San Jose appears to be the better team thus far. At worst, these two are fairly even which brings is back to the coaching and the turnovers. Hawaii is a work on progress. A new project. San Jose has everything in place.

Lastly we bring up the punching bag syndrome. We mention this quite a bit over the course of a college football season. We mention it, because it's an important factor often overlooked. When one team dominates another for many years, when the chance to turn the tables presents itself, teams are likely to take advantage. In this series, Hawaii has won 7 straight years. Which means there's not a senior on this San Jose State team that's ever beaten Hawaii. No one wants to go thru their entire college football career having never beaten a team they have had 4 or 5 cracks at. So there's added incentive.

If you doubt these teams are at least equal in talent, consider this. Last year, in Hawaii's 12-1 year, with June Jones and Colt Brennan and all the rest of the weapons, San Jose State took them to overtime where Hawaii pulled it out 42-35. San Jose has 7 returning starters on offense and 6 on defense. Hawaii has just 4 on each side of the ball.

This year Hawaii is averaging fewer than 300 yards per game on offense, QB Tyler Graunke has an injured throwing hand (think turnovers) and they are rushing for only 3.2 yards per carry. San Jose State held San Diego State to 6 yards rushing.

All is not perfect for San Jose. They are having trouble late in games. Last week Stanford got aggressive defensively and had 6 sacks in the 2nd half and had San Jose at -24 yards in the 4th quarter. But we think they are the more talented and better coached team in this one and have far more positives to draw on than Hawaii does at this stage of the season. We're looking for San Jose to break the 7 game losing streak and win this one straight up and we'll gladly take the +3 as a bonus. 3* San Jose State +3 over Hawaii



1* Virginia +7 over Duke - ** (Line moved to +6.5 most places before we could get this out. We're only going to use this as a 1* play either way. We prefer +7 but still a play at +6. )We're not here to knock Duke. There's only one way to go for this program and that's up. They have already have a smany wins this year as the last 3 years combined, so hats off to David Cutcliffe and company. Duke is playing some good solid football on both sides of the ball and figures to be competitive, although it won't be easy the rest of the way.

What we have here is a major overreaction to each teams results thus far. Virginia is 1-2. They beat Richmond but were obliterated by USC and Uconn by a combined score of 97-17 giving up over 500 yards of offense to both the Huskies and Trojans. Meanwhile Duke is 2-1 to start the year and has folks paying attention. So, sure, if you just look at the scoreboard and the stats, Duke is deserving of the 7 point favorite role. However, if you dig a little deeper, and attach team names to those results, perhaps not. Duke beat James Madison and Navy and lost to Northwestern. Not so impressive really. Not compared to USC and Uconn. Point being, if it wasn't Duke, no one would care. They'd simply say this team hasn't beaten anyone yet.

The reason Duke is getting some attention is because they are 10-82 straight up this decade. That's right. 10 wins and 82 losses. Not very good huh? Yet here they are, favored by 7 points this week. They are favored based on their two wins and the fact that Virginia got blown out in their two losses. But really folks, how much is a team going to change in one year? This isn't pro ball where teams go from worst to first in a year. Change in college football is gradual. 2 wins one year. 5 the next. 7 or 8 after that, and then, who knows.

Duke has been the worst team in college football for many years. While they may improve a little each year, don't expect too many more wins from them this year. As a matter of fact, this week against Virginia may be their last legitimate shot at another win all year looking at their schedule. They may in fact get that win too, as Virginia certainly isn't playing very well. It's simply not logical though, to think Virginia doesn't have a good shot here as well. If anything this one figures to be close.

Virginia was 9-4 a year ago. They were involved in a ton of close games. They have won 57 games this decade. That's 47 more than Duke. They get better talent through their recruiting efforts than Duke does. They have some key holes to fill but still return half of their offense and defense from a year ago, a team that aside from going 9-4, beat Duke 24-13. They have outscored Duke by an average 20 points per game the last 19 years and have gone 17-2 straight up during that time.

Playing and losing to USC is actually a positive here. We talk about this quite a bit. You play a team like USC, especially early in the year, and everything you have been working on in practice falls apart when you try and implement it in the game. USC is just too good. But then you get in there against a team like Duke, and bingo, things start to work they way they were designed.

Virginia has some problems for sure but let's not get too carried away with either of these two teams results after 3 games. Virginia is more than likely not as bad as they have looked. Duke is more than likely not as good as they have looked. What you more than likely have here, is two mediocre to bad teams. One on their way up, one on their way down. The most likely scenario here is a close game that comes down to the 4th quarter. We're getting some added value here based on season to date results and at the end of the day, this is still Duke. 1-11 last year. 0-12 the year before that. And so on, and so on. 1* Virginia +7





Tommy Rider Sat Cfb Card
-------------------------------------

Triple Dime : Cinn -10 Over Akron @ 330 Et ( Gom)

Double Dime : East Carolina / Houston Over 56 @ 330 Et

Single Dime : Pitt -15 Over Syracuse @ 1200 Et

Single Dime : Marshall + 14.5 Over West Virginia @ 330 Et

Single Dime : Miss + 23(-115) Over Florida @ 1230 Et

Single Dime : Arkansas (+130) (ml) Over Memphis @ 200 Et




Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 27, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: TWO WORDS...EASY WINNER!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 56-26 run with all selections and we were a PERFECT 15-5 in College and Pro Football the past two weeks! WE ARE SMOKEN!!! 9/25/2008
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
162 South Carolina -26 7:00 EST





5* plays
Alabama+7
UNLV-4
SAN DIEGO ST-11
RICE-17.5
FRESNO ST+7.5
BALL ST-19



kodiak -33units ytd football

10units:
Marshall +14
Ole Miss +22.5
SMU +18.5
Michigan +7
Western Michigan -4
Buffalo +7
Michigan St. over 49.5





Coling Cowherd Saturday 9/27 Picks
TCU +19
LSU -23
Alabama +7
Notre Dame -1
Penn St. -14




Football Jesus Saturday early release Notre Dame -1




The Sharp Moves


Hatchet Sports:


SATURDAY SEPT 27th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL


OKLAHOMA STATE






The Sharp Moves


Offshore Elite:
OFFSHORE ELITE

SATURDAY SEPT 27th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TOLEDO




The Sharp Moves


Supreme Sports:
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SPECIAL GUARANTEED MOUNTAIN WEST GOY!

SAN DIEGO STATE




The Sharp Moves


Oskeim:
Alabama (+7) (-110) over Georgia
Georgia is coming off an impressive 27-10 win over Arizona State, although the Bulldogs did not return home from the west coast until early Sunday morning which will adversely affect their preparation time for facing Alabama. Alabama head coach Nick Saban is a remarkable 10-0-1 ATS as a conference underdog with revenge off a conference win versus a conference opponent off a straight-up win. Moreover, Georgia head coach Mark Richt is a money-burning 1-5 ATS following consecutive road games and 3-7 ATS at home before a game involving revenge (Georgia has Tennessee on deck).
Alabamas offense has been excellent this year as the Tide are averaging 36 points per game, including 237 rushing yards (5.9 yards per rush attempt) and 387 total yards (5.9 yards per play; 10.8 yards per point) versus teams that would combine to allow just 22.8 points per game, 4.1 yards per rush attempt, 5.1 yards per play and 13.7 yards per point to an average offensive squad. Lets also note that Alabama is averaging 41.5 points per game on the road this season, including 283 rushing yards (6.7 yards per pass play) and 410 total yards (6.3 yards per play; 9.9 yards per point).
Finally, the Crimson Tide, while being young, boast an outstanding defense that is allowing a paltry 9.2 points per game, including 55 rushing yards (2.2 yards per carry), 188 passing yards (4.8 yards per pass play) and 243 total yards (3.8 yards per play; 26.3 yards per point) versus teams that would average 25.5 points per game, 3.7 yards per rush attempt, 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 5.3 yards per play and 14.2 yards per point against an average defense. One of my favorite investment propositions is taking a .500 or better underdog that possesses both a solid running attack (4.4 yards per carry or more) and a stout defense. We get both with Alabama and seven points to boot!
Technicians Corner: Alabama head coach Nick Saban is a profitable 21-13-1 ATS when taking points in conference games, including 15-6 ATS versus an opponent off a SU/ATS win and 14-3 ATS from Game Five out





madduxsports...


Football
#117 - NCAA - 3 units on Northwestern +9
#129 - NCAA - 5 units on Buffalo +7
#132 - NCAA - 3 units on Akron +10.5
#150 - NCAA - 3 units on Michigan +6
#181 - NCAA - 3 units on San Jose State +3




spylock ( 8-1-2 this year)


ALL 1 UNIT PLAYS
Iowa-8
auburn-6 1/2
troy +17
penn state-16
TCU +18 1/2

 

[kozski61]

ASA

College Football Picks
9/27/2008
11:00:00 AM OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (-19.5)
over Minnesota Golden Gophers
ASA 3-Star #138 Ohio State (-19.5) over Minnesota - 11:00 am CST **note time change**

Watch the Buckeyes break out in this game. They have not covered yet this year and that?s part of the reason we?re getting great value here. Last year, OSU was favored by 24.5 points AT Minnesota. They crushed the Gophs in that game 30-7 ripping through the Minny defense for 250 yards rushing (5.4 yards per carry). The ground squirrels, on the other hand, could get nothing going on the ground netting just 45 yards for the game (1.6 yards per carry). That forced QB Adam Weber to try and make things happen through the air resulting in two interceptions. A similar scenario will play out this weekend at the Horseshoe. OSU has not looked very impressive the last three weekends which has thwarted their public perception. Reality is, this team is still loaded with veterans and nearly every key player is back from last year?s squad that played in the National Championship game. They can be forgiven for their incredible flat spots before and after their ?Clash in the Coliseum? with USC. Those games were against Ohio and Troy, neither of which had the Bucks full attention. Their loss @ USC was embarrassing, however we?re not so sure you couldn?t pick any team in the nation and put them in that game and get the same USC dominating results. In other words, the loss simply reiterated how good USC really is rather than how bad the Buckeyes are. Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor has now had a few games to get his feet wet and he will provide the Minnesota defense with huge problems. While the Minnesota defense had no option but to be better than last year when it was THE WORST in the nation, I think we?ll notice this Saturday that the supposed improvement probably isn?t all that great. The Gophs are 4-0 and just might be one of the worst undefeated teams in the nation right now. They have played a very weak schedule with two MAC teams, a Sun Belt team and a Division 1AA team. Last week?s win over Florida Atlantic might have looked impressive, however the Owls were in a terrible spot having to travel to the northern reaches of the nation for the second straight week after visiting Michigan State the previous Saturday. The defenses they have faced are not even in the same zip code as OSU?s stop unit. The Gophers have also been helped greatly by turnovers and field position thus far as 11 of their 19 TD drives have been less than 50-yards. Take out the USC game and this Buckeye defense has allowed just 214 YPG. Minnesota will have a rough go of it on offense this weekend. OSU has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings out right. Since 1983, these teams have met 10 times at the Horseshoe. The Bucks have won 9 of those games. If you disregard their only home loss to Minnesota during that stretch, OSU has won by an average score of 42-7. Expect another dominating performance from the Buckeyes at home on Saturday.


9/27/2008
2:30:00 PM Houston Cougars (+11)
over EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
ASA 4-Star play #133 Houston (+11) over East Carolina - 2:30 pm CST Check back after 4:15 pm today for this analysis.



9/27/2008
9:00:00 PM WASHINGTON HUSKIES (-3)
over Stanford Cardinal

ASA 6-Unit #142 @ Washington (-3) over Stanford, Saturday, Sept. 27th

The Huskies are a MUCH better team than their 0-3 record indicates. They have played a brutal schedule losing @ Oregon and at home to BYU and Oklahoma. Those three teams have a combined record of 10-1 with the only loss coming from Oregon last Saturday mainly because the Ducks were down to their fourth string QB vs. Boise. Washington has now had two full weeks to recover and prepare for a 100% ABSOLUTE must win game. We give a big advantage to the Huskies in this one. Stanford is 2-2 on the year but they have been out gained by an intimidating 469 total yards in those four games combined. The only team they have out yarded was San Jose State last week. That game was tied 10-10 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter before the Cardinal pulled away in the final frame to win 23-10. Stanford?s only other win was at home in the opener vs. Oregon State. They got an early Christmas present there as the Beavers turned the ball over 3 times and had 100 yards in penalties. Stanford gave up almost 500 yards in that game and were out gained by almost 200 yards. The Cardinal gave up 72 points in their two road losses, both ASA?s Pac Ten Game of the Week This section of 1st & Goal has our Big Ten Game of the Week. Located in the heart of the Big Ten country we have great ties or contacts in this region and have always done well with our Big Ten picks. See who we like this week below. blow out losses. As we said, Washington has had a tough go of it schedule wise. In our opinion, they?ve played the toughest early season slate in the land. They can be forgiven for losing @ Oregon, who was full strength at the time, as most come up well short in Autzen Stadium. Their 28-27 home loss to a very good BYU team was a dagger. If you remember, the Huskies scored on the last play of the game to ?tie? the game. However, the official threw a flag for celebration (horrible call) and the Cougs then blocked was essentially a 35-yard extra point. The UW simply could not emotionally recover from that loss by the following week when they were blasted by a great Oklahoma team. With a very good QB in Jake Locker, we look for Washington to get some much needed relief this week playing a defense that had allowed 100 points in three games entering last week?s game vs. an overmatched San Jose State team. UW has dominated this series winning 19 of the 23 meetings since 1980. That includes an easy 27- 9 win last year @ Stanford. The Huskies have also covered 62% of those 23 contests. Stanford has historically been a road struggler with a record of 9-25 SU their last 34 as a visitor. Washington gets this must win and easier than many think.





Norm Hitzges
NCAA Football Record: 45-29

NCAA
Double Plays

Ohio State -19 vs Minnesota
Oklahoma -18.5 vs TCU
Penn State -16 vs Illinois
Oklahoma State -17 vs Troy
Colorado +5.5 vs Florida St

Single Plays

Georgia -6.5 vs Alabama
So. Florida -9.5 vs NC State
Louisville -3.5 vs UConn
W. Michigan -4 vs Temple
Duke -7 vs Virginia
Miami, Fl -7.5 vs North Carolina
LSU -25 vs Mississippi St
Nebraska -7 vs VaTech
California -26.5 vs Colorado St
Clemson -10.5 vs Maryland
South Carolina -25 vs UAB
UNLV -4 vs Nevada
Kentucky -20.5 vs W. Kentucky
UNT +17.5 vs Rice





Big Al GOM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paid and confirmed Big Al GOM



BIG AL's 96% (26-1 ATS) NCAA FB GAME OF THE MONTH!: Al McMordie kicked the Bookies' teeth in last week with his #1 NCAA FB Favorite of the Month on Tulsa over N.M. (a 56-14 Wipeout). Now, Al's UNLOADING with his #1 play of September: It's Big Al's NCAA Game of the Month

Game: Alabama at Georgia Sep 27 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Alabama
Reason: At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide + the points over Georgia. Last year, Georgia won 26-23 at Alabama, but this year's Crimson Tide squad is a far cry from the team that went 13-13 in the 2006 and 2007 seasons. This year, Alabama is off to a 4-0 start, and demolished Arkansas 49-14 on the road last week. Alabama also opened the 2008 season with an upset win against then-No. 9-ranked Clemson, so the Tide have jumped into the Top 10, while Georgia sits at #3 in the latest polls. Most impressive, of course, has been Alabama's defense. The Tide has surrendered just 9.2 points per game. And since 1998, College Football teams which give up 14.8 or less points are an eye-popping 26-1 ATS at Game 5 of the season forward, if they're off a win of 6+ points, covered the spread in their previous game, and they're now priced between +5.5 and +9 points. College Football Game of the Month on Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Big 10 Game of the Month or my College Football Revenge Superplay out of an eye-popping system on this Saturday.





radio picks--- wayne root--nebraska--georgia--washington under total(pros)--*nevada*best bet*---------------ron myer--virgina tec--alabama--washington(pros)--*tcu*best bet*-----------big al --nebraska--georgia under total--washington(pros)--*duke*best bet*----------kelso--virgina tec--alabama--washington(pros)--*n. illinois*best bet*





Doc sports

NCAA Game of the Year!

8-Unit Game of the Year. #142 Take Washington -3.5 over Stanford (10 pm)



Keith Glantz

College Lock of the Week

Nebraska -7 over Va Tech




Tom Stryker's 13-0 ATS NCAA Perfect Situation Play:

OHIO STATE



Lee Sterling Week 5 NCAA Picks

Oklahoma 46 TCU 13
Florida St. 31 Colorado 13
Alabama 23 Georgia 20
Nebraska 27 Va. Tech 17




Lang on philly tv


Penn St
Bama

 

[kozski61]

Goodfellas Sports
Thesharpmoves
Double Ziti Alert!!!!

One Total(12pm)

Wins Easy..

Confernce Total Of The Week

Clemson /maryland Over 49




The Hammer Guaranteed Selections


P.I.C. NON CONFERENCE COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR
167 South Florida -9.5 7:30 EST




Scott Spreitzer

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hammer GOM Central Michigan



Jim Feist

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blowout Game Of Week Purdue






*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

1 STAR: (961) COLORADO (+$195) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $195)
7:10PM Central Time

1 STAR: (955) WASHINGTON (+$223) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $223)
2:55PM Central Time



Pointwise Phone Plays

2* each

W. Mich
Cinci
New Mex st
West Virginia



THE GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SELECTIONS -

1 1/2 units = #109 WESTERN MICHIGAN
1 unit = #107 NAVY
1 unit = #117 NORTHWESTERN
1 unit = #142 WASHINGTON
1 unit = #151 MARYLAND
1 unit = #188 OKLAHOMA STATE




MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with Connecticut ( 3-1/2) last night.

Today it's Tennessee and Notre Dame. The deficit is 295 sirignanos.




Erin Rynning

20* buffalo



Jim Kruger CFB

9/27/2008 CALIFORNIA -26.5

9/27/2008 TEXAS -27.5




Matt Fargo CFB

9/27/2008 OKLAHOMA STATE -17.5




Alex Smart CFB

9/27/2008 KENT STATE 21




SCOTT FERRALL MLB

BEST IN BOLD

MINNESOTA -150 over Kansas City--Perkins is automatic over Meche--COUNT ON IT ! Twins aren't messing around

Cleveland +170 and Jackson UPSET SPECIAL over the White Sox and Vazquez in Chicago

St.Louis -145 over Cincy--Wellemeyer over Harang at Busch 2

BACKE -120 and Astros over the Braves in Houston

NO EARLY LINES ON THESE GAMES--TAKE ANYWAY:

Angels over the Rangers--Ervin Santana is the take

TB in Detroit--Garza over Dontrelle Willis



3:30p The Prez Fresno State -6.5 (-110) / 5 units
12:00p The Prez Iowa -8.5 (-110) / 4 units
12:00p The Prez Maryland +11.0 (-110) / 4 units
2:00p The Prez Memphis +2.0 (-110) / 5 units
12:00p The Prez Miami (Florida) -7.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:45p The Prez Navy +16.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:30p The Prez North Carolina State +9.0 (-110) / 5 units
3:30p The Prez Purdue +1.5 (-110) / 5 units
5:00p The Prez Rice -17.0 (-110) / 6 units
3:30p The Prez Tennessee +6.5 (-110) / 3 units
10:00p The Prez Washington -3.0 (-110) / 5 units





3:30p Rocky Fresno State (-7) / 1 units
12:00p Rocky North Carolina (Cool / 3 units



7:45p Teddy Covers Alabama +7.0 / 3 units
3:30p Teddy Covers Houston +11.0 / 3 units
8:00p Teddy Covers Illinois +16.0 / 4 units
12:00p Teddy Covers Maryland +11.0 / 3 units
3:30p Teddy Covers Tennessee +7.0 / 3 units
3:30p Teddy Covers UL Lafayette +20.5 / 3 units
10:00p Teddy Covers Washington -3.0 / 6 units




7:45p Pacific Star Alabama +7.0 / 5 units
2:00p Pacific Star Arkansas St. -2.0 / 4 units
12:00p Pacific Star Ball St. -19.0 / 4 units
8:00p Pacific Star Central Florida -4.0 / 3 units
4:00p Pacific Star Central Michigan -7.0 / 5 units
7:30p Pacific Star LSU -25.0 / 3 units
3:30p Pacific Star Marshall +15.0 / 3 units
3:30p Pacific Star Michigan +6.0 / 4 units
12:30p Pacific Star Mississippi +22.0 / 4 units
3:45p Pacific Star Navy +16.5 / 3 units
8:00p Pacific Star New Mexico St +3.0 / 3 units
7:30p Pacific Star North Carolina State +10.0 / 3 units
12:00p Pacific Star Ohio State -19.0 / 3 units
8:00p Pacific Star Penn St. -15.0 / 5 units
3:30p Pacific Star Purdue +1.0 / 4 units
3:30p Pacific Star Tennessee +7.0 / 4 units
7:00p Pacific Star Toledo -19.5 / 3 units
8:00p Pacific Star Virginia Tech +7.0 / 3 units
10:00p Pacific Star Washington -3.0 / 4 units
2:00p Pacific Star Western Michigan -4.0 / 6 units



7:45p Matt Foust Alabama +7.0 (-110) / 3 units
2:00p Matt Foust Arkansas St. -2.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p Matt Foust Duke -7.0 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p Matt Foust Fresno State -7.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:30p Matt Foust LSU -24.5 (-110) / 2 units
12:00p Matt Foust Maryland Clemson u48.5 (-110) / 3 units
8:00p Matt Foust Nebraska -7.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p Matt Foust Northern Illinois -6.5 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p Matt Foust Northwestern +8.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:00p Matt Foust Oklahoma -18.5 (-110) / 3 units
7:00p Matt Foust Oklahoma State -17.0 (-110) / 2 units
8:00p Matt Foust Penn St. -15.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p Matt Foust Purdue +1.5 (-110) / 3 units
5:00p Matt Foust Rice -17.0 (-110) / 3 units
7:30p Matt Foust South Florida -9.5 (-110) / 3 units
7:00p Matt Foust Troy Oklahoma State o60.0 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p Matt Foust Wisconsin -6.0 (-110) / 4 units




7:45p Mike Rose Alabama Georgia u45.0 / 3 units
3:30p Mike Rose Michigan +6.5 / 3 units
12:00p Mike Rose Michigan State Indiana o51.0 / 3 units
8:00p Mike Rose New Mexico St (140) / 3 units
7:00p Mike Rose Oklahoma State -17.0 / 5 units
11:59p Mike Rose San Jose State +3 / 3 units
7:00p Mike Rose TCU Oklahoma u55.0 / 3 units



11:59p JB Sports Hawaii r182 -3.0 (-110) / 5 units
3:30p JB Sports Houston +11.0 (-110) / 3 units
12:00p JB Sports Indiana +8.0 (-110) / 3 units
2:00p JB Sports Memphis +2.0 (-110) / 5 units
8:00p JB Sports Nebraska -7.0 (-110) / 5 units
10:00p JB Sports Nevada Reno +4.0 (-110) / 5 units
10:00p JB Sports Washington -3.0 (-105) / 5 units



2:00p LT Profits Arkansas St. -2.0 (-110) / 2 units
4:00p LT Profits Central Michigan -6.5 (-110) / 2 units
12:00p LT Profits Miami (Florida) -8.0 (-110) / 2 units



8:00p Jim Kruger New Mexico St +3.0 / 3 units
7:00p Jim kruger Oklahoma -18.5 / 3 units
7:00p Jim Kruger Oklahoma State -17.0 / 3 units
7:30p Jim Kruger South Florida -9.5 / 3 units
10:00p Jim Kruger Washington -3.0 / 3 units




12:00p Bob Akmens Ball St. -19.0 / 5 units
3:30p Bob Akmens Cincinnati -11.0 (-110) / 5 units
7:30p Bob Akmens Mississippi State +25.0 (-110) / 5 units
10:00p Bob Akmens Nevada Reno +4.0 (-110) / 5 units
2:00p Bob Akmens Temple +4.5 / 5 units
3:30p Bob Akmens UCLA +7.5 (-110) / 8 units





3:30p Ben Lewis Florida State
12:30p Ben Lewis Mississippi Florida u50.0 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p Ben Lewis Notre Dame -1.0 (-110) / 3 units
2:00p Ben Lewis Western Michigan -4.0 (-110) / 5 units

 

[kozski61]

12:00p Bob Harvey Miami (Florida) -7.5 (-110) / 4 units
8:00p Bob Harvey Penn St. -15.0 (-110) / 4 units
10:00p Bob Harvey UNLV -3.5 (-110) / 4 units




7:45p AJ Apollo Georgia -6.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p AJ Apollo Michigan +5.5 (-110) / 3 units
3:30p AJ Apollo Tennessee +6.5 (-110) / 3 units



8:00p Ben Burns Illinois +15.0 / 6 units
7:30p Ben Burns Mississippi State LSU u39.0 (-110) / 8 units
3:30p Ben Burns Notre Dame -1.0 / 7 units
12:00p Ben Burns Ohio State -17.5 / 7 units



3:30p Alex Smart Akron +11.5 / 3 units
3:30p Alex Smart Florida State -5.5 / 3 units
7:45p Alex Smart Georgia -6.5 / 4 units
12:00p Alex Smart Syracuse +15.5 / 3 units
7:00p Alex Smart TCU Oklahoma u54.0 / 3 units
12:00p Alex Smart Virginia +7.0 / 3 units



Dave Malinsky

GAME: Army @ Texas A&M Sep 27, 2008 12:30PM

4* ARMY over TEXAS A&M

Games in this pointspread range have to be broken down differently from others, because of the obvious talent mismatch. These ATS outcomes are decided more based on the intensity of the teams, and it should not come as a surprise that we have landed here, because the service academy teams have been good to our pockets for a couple of decades when we could isolate the right spots. These are disciplined athletes that are going to play hard for the full 60 minutes regardless of how the scoreboard reads, which is exactly what you want in an underdog in this price range, while at the same team the superior team is also more inclined to back off early, and not embarrass a service academy. With Army this week we get even more.

The Black Knights are 5-0 ATS as underdogs in the state of Texas the past six seasons, and we have put many of those results into our portfolio. There is a prime reason for those showings ? they annually get more players from this state than anywhere else, and this season is no different, with 27 Texans on the roster, including five starters. These trips mean something special to these athletes, and this one even more so because of Hurricane Ike. A lot of those Army players are from areas that were impacted, and we will let coach Stan Brock take it from there -

?It will be a big deal because this is the first time that these guys have seen their families since the hurricane went through there. Hopefully, some of the freshmen can step up in practice and make the road trip. We have six freshmen that we are hoping can travel so they can go home and see their family.?

The energy that those freshmen brought to the practices this week is something that will be infectious for the entire team, and veteran starting guard Brandon Cox, a Texan, echoes the sentiments - ?Going home, seeing a bunch of family, having everyone come to the game, it?s going to be fun, going to be exciting. I?ve been to Kyle Field two or three times with my grandfather, he?s an alum there. I?ve been to a couple of games and the atmosphere is unbelievable.?

The key on the field is that the Black Knights also help to tactically get the game home as well. Brock has gone to an all-out option package on offense, looking to slow the game tempo down whenever possible. That has led to some stodgy offensive snap counts through the first three games, keyed by an Army offensive ratio of 161 running plays vs. only 39 passes. That will not change here ? they will stay with the ground attack regardless of the game situation, and that will severely reduce the opportunities that the favored Aggies will have to get near this pointspread. Making it even more difficult is that A&M simply is not very good, particularly in the area of rush defense, which matters so much this week.

Texas A&M has already lost outright to Arkansas State on this field, and was not competitive in last week?s 41-23 loss to Miami, a game that was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. The Aggies scored on the first snap from scrimmage, a 62-yard touchdown pass from Jerrod Johnson to Mike Goodson, and then were bullied by an embarrassing 41-3 fashion until the Hurricanes backed off late in the game. Note that in the only A&M win it was a +3 turnover advantage at New Mexico that did the trick (the Lobos led 370-236 in total offense), and that this defense is allowing 210 yards per game overland, at an alarming 5.7 yards per carry. That weakness enables Army to get some first downs and keep the clock ticking, which turns this pointspread into Mt. Everest. And even should the Aggies get a few big plays to get near the number, Mike Sherman is not the kind of coach to pile it on here, particularly with the Big 12 opener at Oklahoma State immediately on deck. He would be more than satisfied to get a win by far less than this spread, and to get his starters out of the game as early as possible.




Nelly's Sportsline

5* washington huskies
4* ohio state




Capper James
This guy has been doing very well with his plays over the last 4 weeks.

5* Western Michigan -4

4* New Mexico State +3.5

3* Penn State -15.5



HONDO

September 27, 2008

Hondo made a strong late-season move last night, hitting with the Tribe in Chi-town to send the earnings soaring to 715 sassers.

Today, he'll go with Nolasco to pound another nail into the Metamucils' coffin - 10 units on the Marlins.





Armvin Sports Mlb

9/27/2008 Cincinnati Reds 132



12:00p fairway jay Duke -7.0 (-110) / 4 units
8:00p fairway jay Illinois Penn St. u56.0 / 4 units
12:30p fairway jay Mississippi +22.5 (-110) / 3 units
8:00p fairway jay Nebraska -7.0 (-110) / 5 units
10:00p fairway jay Nevada Reno +4.0 (-110) / 3 units
11:59p fairway jay San Jose State +3.0 (-110) / 3 units
10:00p fairway jay Washington -3.0 (-110) / 3 units
2:00p fairway jay Western Michigan -4.0 (-110) / 4 units



Glenn Mcgrew

tv game of month penn st

mismatch game of month south carolina



edit:admin
no ATS




cappers access

Sat (CFB) Indiana
Sat (CFB) Purdue
Sat (CFB) Alabama
Sat (CFB) Nebraska




Arthur Ralph Sports

Kansas State




Insider Sports Report

Ohio St. -19 over Minnesota (NCAAF)



GOLDEN CONTENDER SATURDAY SYSTEM CLUB PLAY, On Saturday afternoon the system club play is on the Michigan St Spartans.Game 115 at 12 pm eastern.These system club plays are 3-0 the last 3 weeks,lets see if we can keep it going here.The spartans are 11-3 su vs Indiana over the years and apply to a nice 19-4 system that dates to 1980.The system pertains to week 4 home dogs less than 666 win percentage, coming off a home favored loss if they were a favorite of more than 3 points and lost by double digits.Playing against these home dgos in there next game has been very profitable.Indy has been a poor home dog in this range just 2-6 in there last 8 tries.Better yet put them in a game where they have revenge and there off a su favorite loss and they are just 1-9 ats.Take the spartans minus the points here on Saturday





Arnie K Lang 3 Plays from Leroy's Line Show:

#131 Cincinnati -10
#176 New Mexico State +3.5
#183 Western Kentucky +21.5




HQ Report Newsletter 9/27

HQ REPORT 5* (2-1-1)
HR REPORT 4* (0-0)
HQ REPORT UPSET OF WEEK (4-0)
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (1-3)
HQ REPORT ATS (3-1)

5* MICHIGAN STATE (-9) over INDIANA by 22
3* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6) over BUFFALO by 14
3* ILLINOIS (+15) over PENN STATE
3* EASTEN MICHIGAN (+6) over NORTHERN ILLINOIS

*HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK:
TOP PLAY >> MARSHALL (+15) over WEST VIRGINIA

*HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER
SINGLE PLAY >> ARMY vs TEXAS A & M PLAY Under

*A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems) `
TOP PLAY >> CLEMSON (-11) over MARYLAND


Handicapper: Mike Handzelek

San Jose State vs. Hawaii (NCAAF) - 12:05 AM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 3/-109 San Jose State Play Title: Rare Triple-Play GOM With BIG-Time 7-Team Teaser
Analysis
Play San Jose. The Spartans will return the favor for Hawaii's come from 2 TD behind victory in OT last year. You see the 3rd all-time winningest coach in Hawaii FB history is **** Tomey (77'-86'). Unfortunately, he's on the San Jose sidelines. The problem in this game is the Warriors being so green. They retuen 4 starters each on both sides of the ball under 1st year Coach Greg McMackin. They looked drastically over-matched 2 weeks ago @ Oregon State. I don't like the fact that the Rainbows are a -9 in turnovers their first 2 lined games this season. It seems there is no continuity on offense under the new system & QB Tyler Graunke will be trying to play with a hand injury backed up by a JUCO transfer. On the other side, Tomey is getting good play overall out of Cal transfer QB Kyle Reed, who was 23 for 26 vs. Stanford last week. The kicker here is the defenses. San Jose is @ #47 & Hawaii @ #80. The Spartans are 8-3 their L11 lined games. I don't see any Warrior advantages besides home field & history. That's not going to be enough with revenge on the Spartans' minds. $600 to win & a Triple-Play on San Jose St. My 7-Team Big Time Parlay $1500 to win $442 Southern Cal -4000, Florida -2100, Cal -4000, South Carolina -2100, Texas A&M -4000, Kentucky -1600, Texas -3200.





Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

5* New Mexico
3* Purdue\notre Dame Over
3* Wisconsin
3* Bowling Green
3* Michigan State

 

[kozski61]

Ballinpicks

ball st
florida
georgia
lsu


Brandon Lang

SATURDAY

20 Dime - New Mexico State

5 Dime - Bowling Green

FREE - Alabama

 

[kozski61]

Scott's Picks (Comp)



North Carolina at Miami-FL

We are nearly as quick to declare the Canes "back" as it seems many want to do. They get a significant test in this one against an excellent defense that can hamper an offense that still shows limitations.
North Carolina +8


Purdue at Notre Dame

Notre Dame will not have a consistent answer to stop Kory Sheets and the Purdue ground attack, just as last season when he gained 141 yards. Irish eventually must sell out to try and stop the run and Boilmaker QB Painter more than capable of taking full advantage.
Purdue +1


Minnesota at Ohio State

We don't believe Ohio State is anywhere near the best team in the nation, in fact they aren't likely the best in the Big 10. However we believe they are out to prove they are better than the USC shelling and they are far superior to Minnesota who will trouble sustanining any offense.
Ohio State -19.5


Stanford at Washington

Desperation for Washington and perhaps the last opponent on their schedule they have a legit shot at winning. Still not sold on Stanford, especiall on the road.
Washington U -3


UAB at South Carolina

Look for the ole ball coach to return to glory days of running up the score. He's had few opportunities recently with the Gamecocks but has still loved to open wide margins - he'll do it again today against one of the worst defenses (1703 yards allowed in 3 games!) in Div I.
South Carolina -26.5

Colorado at Florida State

Impressed with CU and this could be a dangerous team NEXT year. This week, they are not. Not overly impressed with Seminoles but young Buffs team not ready for a road against an opponent on this level - even if the upper deck will be closed due to lousy ticket sales.
Florida State -5.5

 

[kozski61]

DCI



Saturday, September 27, 2008
Atlantic Coast Conference
CLEMSON 24, Maryland 19
MIAMI (FLA.) 26, North Carolina 22
Virginia 25, DUKE 16
Big East Conference
Pittsburgh 30, SYRACUSE 15
Big Ten Conference
IOWA 12, Northwestern 9
Michigan State 26, INDIANA 13
OHIO STATE 30, Minnesota 9
PENN STATE 45, Illinois 30
Wisconsin 21, MICHIGAN 13
Mid-American Conference
Western Michigan 27, TEMPLE 24
BALL STATE 44, Kent State 12
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33, Buffalo 26
Northern Illinois 31, EASTERN MICHIGAN 29
Pacific-10 Conference
Oregon 43, WASHINGTON STATE 31
WASHINGTON 29, Stanford 26
Southeastern Conference
AUBURN 14, Tennessee 6
FLORIDA 38, Mississippi 3
GEORGIA 26, Alabama 15
LSU 29, Mississippi State 0
Conference USA
EAST CAROLINA 37, Houston 20
Ucf 31, UTEP 13
Western Athletic Conference
HAWAI'I 27, San Jose State 13
FBS Non-Conference
Arkansas State 32, MEMPHIS 23
BOSTON COLLEGE 27, Rhode Island 0
Bowling Green State 14, WYOMING 12
CALIFORNIA 41, Colorado State 22
Cincinnati 39, AKRON 24
Colorado 20, Florida State 18
KANSAS STATE 43, Louisiana-Lafayette 28
KENTUCKY 30, Western Kentucky 3
New Mexico 33, NEW MEXICO STATE 22
NOTRE DAME 21, Purdue 19
OHIO 46, Vmi 10
OKLAHOMA 41, Tcu 24
OKLAHOMA STATE 42, Troy 26
RICE 45, North Texas 30
RUTGERS 25, Morgan State 6
SAN DIEGO STATE 40, Idaho 20
SOUTH CAROLINA 33, Uab 7
South Florida 29, NC STATE 16
TEXAS 39, Arkansas 23
TEXAS A&M 29, Army 0
TOLEDO 39, Florida International 20
TULSA 46, Central Arkansas 25
UCLA 26, Fresno State 24
UNLV 36, Nevada 30
UTAH 47, Weber State 14
Virginia Tech 22, NEBRASKA 16
WAKE FOREST 35, Navy 12
WEST VIRGINIA 32, Marshall 9
Big Sky Conference
EASTERN WASHINGTON 57, Idaho State 25
Northern Arizona 40, NORTHERN COLORADO 20
SACRAMENTO STATE 29, Portland State 22
Colonial Athletic Association
James Madison 36, MAINE 22
Richmond 20, VILLANOVA 19
Ivy League
Harvard 15, BROWN 6
Yale 28, CORNELL 13
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
BETHUNE-COOKMAN 19, Norfolk State 17
Missouri Valley Conference
Northern Iowa 25, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 24
Northeast Conference
ROBERT MORRIS 14, Monmouth 12
Ohio Valley Conference
EASTERN ILLINOIS 29, Jacksonville State 17
EASTERN KENTUCKY 28, Austin Peay 12
Tennessee-Martin 46, MURRAY STATE 26
Patriot League
FORDHAM 24, Colgate 15
Holy Cross 38, GEORGETOWN 12
Pioneer League
DAVIDSON 24, Jacksonville 3
San Diego 19, DRAKE 9
Southern Conference
ELON 39, Samford 9
FURMAN 42, Chattanooga 7
THE CITADEL 39, Western Carolina 14
Wofford 28, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 26
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Alabama A&M vs. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Southern 29, ALCORN STATE 19
FCS Non-Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 56, Presbyterian 13
Coastal Carolina 29, NORTH CAROLINA A&T 7
TOWSON 22, Columbia 21
Dayton 33, DUQUESNE 16
DELAWARE 24, Albany 12
DELAWARE STATE 33, Central Connecticut State 24
Howard 25, Savannah State 12
LAFAYETTE 7, Penn 3
Lehigh 20, PRINCETON 19
MARIST 25, Sacred Heart 20
MOREHEAD STATE 21, Saint Francis (Pa.) 9
New Hampshire 41, DARTMOUTH 21
North Dakota 35, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 26
Sam Houston State 29, GARDNER-WEBB 19
South Carolina State 16, WINSTON-SALEM STATE 0
South Dakota 36, MONTANA STATE 33
South Dakota State 46, STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 18
Southeast Missouri State 31, INDIANA STATE 24
Tennessee State 38, Florida A&M 27
TEXAS STATE 29, Southern Utah 26
UC Davis 27, NORTHEASTERN 23
WAGNER 36, Bryant 12
YOUNGSTOWN STATE 29, Liberty 18

 

[kozski61]

** EZWINNERS NCAA FOOTBALL ***



5 STAR: (109) WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4) over Temple
(Risking $550 to win $500)
1PM Central Time


5 STAR: (145) ALABAMA (+7)(-$120) over Georgia
(Risking $600 to win $500)
6:45PM Central Time

(Buy the 1/2 point)


3 STAR: (174) PENN STATE (-15.5) over Illinois
(Risking $330 to win $300)
7:10PM Central Time


2 STAR: (181) SAN JOSE STATE (+3) over Hawaii
(Risking $220 to win $200)
11:05PM Central Time



Tommy Rider

Single Dime (added Gm)

Washington -3 Over Stanford @ 10 Et




GATOR REPORT

NCAA ?Tech? Game of the Week:

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

WASHINGTON STATE +21? over Oregon

The Ducks waddle back on to the road on Saturday to take on the Cougars in a Pac-10 contest. Oregon opened the season with three consecutive victories, including a draining 32-26 overtime decision at Purdue two weeks ago. Then last week, Oregon fell at home to Boise State 37-32.

Washington State opened its season in ugly fashion with three lopsided losses, but built some much-needed confidence last weekend with a 48-9 win over 1-AA Portland State.

Oregon comes into this game with major issues at the quarterback position. Nathan Costa tore an ACL back in August and is out for the season. Justin Roper took over the reins, but he suffered a less serious knee injury that has caused him to miss time. Now, Jeremiah Masoli suffered a head injury last weekend which leaves his status for Saturday's clash in question. True freshman Darron Thomas showed flashes of brilliance in the second half of the loss to Boise State, as he completed 13-of-25 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Chris Harper threw three passes against Boise State, two of which were intercepted. Every Duck fan thinks Thomas should get the nod on Saturday; however, during the week he was riding in a car with a couple of teammates that crashed while street racing, which is a big red flag as the focus of Thomas and his team for this contest.

The Cougars are averaging 20 ppg and 335 total ypg, as they get accustomed to the new offensive schemes being implemented. Last week?s blowout win, even against a weak foe, shows progress has been made, and one of our strongest ?new coach? handicapping keys is to play ON a team with a new head coach off a non-lined win.

With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a ?wait and see? attitude. A new coach can use a non-lined game against an inferior opponent to get some quality work in against a live opponent and build some confidence with a dominating win. Even with an easy win, the wagering public is likely to ignore or dismiss it, due to the level of competition. This means the line will not be adjusted against the team with the new coach, providing his team with line value. Such is the case here with the Cougars catching 3 TDs worth of points at home.

Oregon is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite with less than 13 days rest vs. Washington State, all coming since 2000, 0-3 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since at least 1980 as a road favorite of more than 18 points, and 0-5 ATS (-19.2 ppg) as a road favorite off a favorite SU loss since 1989, while Washington State is 3-0 ATS in the reverse role over the past 10 seasons.

The Cougars are also 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog vs. opponents off a SU loss since 1998.

Finally, our database research shows that Game 5 road favorites of 17+ points are 0-5-0 (-17.1 ppg) off allowing more points in each of its first 4 games. We look for an improving Cougar offense to keep this one close against a Duck team playing it conservative on the road.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 28 WASHINGTON STATE 21


Gator Report NCAA Games of the Week:

>SEC GOW (1-1 ): Alabama +6? over GEORGIA 7:45 EST

Alabama is 10-0-1 ATS (+11 ppg) since 1995 as an underdog of 2+ points vs. an undefeated opponent.

Georgia is:

0-5 ATS (-14.1 ppg) as an undefeated conference home team

0-3 (-22.7 ppg) SU & 0-3 ATS (-16.3 ppg) in home games from Game 4 on vs. undefeated conference foes since at least 1980

0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 4 points off 2 road/neutral site games, while Alabama is 7-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in the reverse role before Game 11

In a battle of unbeaten conference foes, road-weary favorites have struggled. Specifically, undefeated conference favorite of more than 6 points off 2 road favorite SU wins are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980 vs. undefeated opponents.


>Big 10 GOW (0-0-1 0.0): no play for this week

>CUSA GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week

>PAC 10 GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week

>ACC GOW (0-0): no play for this week

>MAC GOW (0-0): Northern Illinois -6? over EASTERN MICHIGAN

The Huskies got a big injection of confidence with a dominating, 48-3, win over Indiana State.

The ROAD TEAM is 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in N ILLINOIS-E MICHIGAN series since ?00

Eastern Michigan is:

0-8 ATS/1-11 ATS last 12/2-17 ATS last 19 games at home vs. opponent playing with revenge

0-6 (-7.7 ppg) all-time at home vs. opponent seeking revenge for a SU loss in the last matchup and won the matchup before that


>?BIG EASY? GOW (3-0 +300): RICE -17 over North Texas

North Texas is:

0-13 ATS (-13.2) as an underdog of 17? - 41? points

Rice is

8-0 ATS off an ATS loss of 10+ points and not an underdog of more than 30 points vs. an opponent off a SU loss

4-0 ATS as a home favorite of 8??23 points since 2001

Sizeable home favorites have taken out their frustrations after getting whipped on the road as a big underdog. Specifically, home favorites of 11?-25 points off a road SU & ATS loss as an underdog of more than 17 points are 11-0 (+31.8 ppg) SU & 11-0 (+14.5 ppg) ATS since 1989 (2-0 already this season).


>Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): UCLA +7? over Fresno State


Fresno State will have 4 starters from defense out for this game. They are:

0-12-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) with a line between -14 and +8 off a non-conference game
0-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. Pac-10 since 1991
0-5 SU last 5 vs. Pac-10 and 0-4 ATS vs. Pac-10 when not getting 22+ points
0-6 ATS (-20 ppg) as a non-conference road favorite since 1990

UCLA is:

11-0 ATS (+12.1 ppg) as a home underdog of 6+ points since at least 1980, including upset win over Tennessee in this year?s opener.





Just got NCAAF VictoriousPlay plays:


Mississippi @ Florida
Recommendation: 1* Florida -22.5

Illinois @ Peen St.
Recommendation: 1* Illinois +15

South Florida @ NC State
Recommendation: 2* Over 45.5

 

[stix]

Someone tell Mallinsky that Army football is AWFUL..Hey Waterbull, whats up with the grandslam?

 

[taipans]

feist--
total..................mia-fla under
personal best............w.mich, washington
platinum........................tenn over
inner circle..................marshall


cokin--
big shot...............penn st
total.......................nwestern under, bgreen under
window........................cal
under the hat..................ohio st, okla st



spriyzer--
10* total..............cincy under
5* total............sanjose over
ko....................oregon
tko sec shocker gom........miss
tko..............iowa
tko..............mich

 

[bienny83]

Taipans,

which one Feist dog of the year?? thanks

 

[kozski61]

Sixth Sense Sports

2% AKRON +11 Akron qualifies in a 79-30-2 situation

2% STANFORD +3 Stanford qualifies in a 127-73-3 fundamental rushing situation

2% SAN JOSE STATE +3 Stanford qualifies in a 127-73-3 fundamental rushing situation



coverthenumber
Josh Daniels 7* 7 UNIT SATURDAY SHOCKER
Marshall @ West Virgina

Marshall +15

In our 7 unit big play for Saturday we are taking Marshall +15. In a rainy day in Morgantwon expect the game to be played between the 30's. West Virgina's "spread" offense will not be able to get their offense going in the pouring down rain on Saturday. Take the Wisconson game out of the picture, then Marshall has only givin up an average of 125 yards on the ground. And with Pat White un-ableness to be a throwing quarterback, Marshall will stack the box making it hard to run. Take Marshall and the points in our 7 Unit play!




Lance's Lock

Todays play: Georgia -6'



Mike Volpe
Brand X Sports

College Football 3 Team Best Bet System

Duke Bluedevils -6
UNDER 52 Michigan State
Miami Hurricanes -7.



EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D"
Elite GEORGIA
Blue Chip IOWA
Upset Special TEMPLE

RANDY MITCHEL
Diamond MICHIGAN
Platinum UCLA
Gold TENNESSEE




Gameday

4* Oklahoma



kelso --best play on the tv show was no. illinois




Guaranteed Pick: Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence 63-0 ATS No.1 CFB Games Of The Week: Check this out - all THREE of Marc's No.1 College Football Favorite, Underdog and Revenge Game of the Week winners are supported with amazing winning angles inside the games that together are an incredible 63-0! Get them all right now and enjoy the weekend with Marc - you'll be glad you did!

Game: Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers
Reason: Play On: Tennessee Note: Tennessee, our No. 1 College Football Underdog Game of the Week, is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in games off a loss of more than 7 points under Phil Fulmer, including 9-0 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 6 points. On the flip side, Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville is 1-13 ATS at home against an opponent off a loss of 17 or more points, including 0-11 if the foe owns a win percentage of .250 or more. Grab the points with the Vols in this upset maker.

Game: Wisconsin at Michigan Sep 27 2008 3:30PM
Prediction: Michigan
Reason: Play On: Michigan Note: Michigan, our No. 1 College Football Revenge Game of the Week, plays host to Wisconsin with revenge on their minds from a 16-point loss as 3-point road favorites last year. Aside from having NEVER been favored against the Wolverines in the 'Big House' in Ann Arbor, the Badgers are 1-16 SU on this field since 1965. To top it off, Michigan is 25-1 SU in its last 26 conference openers, with the one loss by 3 points - making them 26-0 to this number. Toss is Rich Rodriguez' 7-0 SU mark at home in games with rest and suddenly this game has all the making of a Live Home Dog win.

Game: Colorado St. at California Sep 27 2008 6:00PM
Prediction: California
Reason: Play On: California Note: California, our No. 1 College Football Favorite Game of the Week, returns home their stunning loss at Maryland two weeks ago as 14-point favorites to host Colorado State who enters off a SU home underdog win last week. With that we note that home teams in Game Four playing with a week of rest against a non-conference opponent off a win are 19-2 ATS, including 17-0 ATS if the host is off a win or loss of less than 20 and the visitor did not toss a shutout in its win. Lay the lumber with the Bears in this blowout.

 

[Dr. Maddog]

wayne root

Millionaire GOY- Michigan
Perfect play - Georgia
Billionaire- UCLA
No-Limit - Tenneessee
Inside circle- N.Dame
Money-Maker - Nevada
Chairman - Nebraska

 

[hawkeye]

Northcoast Phones?

 

[snakebill]

anyone have ats lock club pics COLLEGE GRAND SLAM 4 TOP PICKS PLEASE POST THANKS IN ADVANCE


sorry no ATS picks to be posted per their request:admin