WILD BILL
Stanford +3 1/2 (5 units)
Georgia-7 (5 units)
Lsu -24 (5 units)
Western Kentucky +20 1/2 (5 units)
Washington State +21 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas+27 1/2 (5 units)
East Carolina-10 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas State -1 (5 units)
Unlv -4 (5 units)
San Diego State -11 (5 units)
Nc State -8 1/2 (5 units)
Troy +16 1/2 (5 units)
Tcu +17 1/2 (5 units)
California -26 1/2 (5 units)
Auburn -6 (5 units)
West Virginia -14 (5 units)
Iowa -8 1/2 (5 units)
Hawaii-San Jose State Over 49 (5 units)
Penn St-Illinois Over 58 (5 units)
Georgia-Alabama Over 44 1/2 (5 units)
Wake Forest-Navy Over 54 (5 units)
Indiana-Michigan State Over 49 1/2 (5 units)
Washington-Stanford Over 52 1/2 (5 units)
Nebraska-Virginia Tech Over 45 1/2 (5 units)
LSU-Mississippi St Over 39 1/2 (5 units)
WV-Marshall Over 51 1/2 (5 units)
Armvin Sports Cfb
9/27/2008 West Virginia -14
9/27/2008 San Jose State 3
MJP sports CFB
9/27/2008 VIRGINIA TECH 7.5
VSAO - Vernon Croy CFB
9/27/2008 SAN JOSE STATE 3
Pointwise College Key Releases
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
?a considerable amount of time,? with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed 3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls 56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his 23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403 yards in the Broncos? last 3 games. WMU?s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against the Owls last week). Temple?s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn?t in good health, either, as four starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13
10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
SCOUT s report last week?s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O?Brien. N.C. State had been giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for. The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall.
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21
10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in ?the pits,? is one of the few teams that figures to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina?s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red Elephants haven?t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban?s tenure.
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20
10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Big Ten SCOUT s tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week, as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines? improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame) to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident, hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7. Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with Wolverines? speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3 FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (+Cool at Iowa?Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...OHIO STATE (-18?) vs. Minnesota?Buckeyes already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...OKLAHOMA (-1Cool vs. Tcu?Sooners, who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam Bradford running OU?s no-huddle offense...NEW MEXICO STATE (+3?) vs. New Mexico?With Lobos? Donovan Porterie gone for the season, QB edge in this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State?s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...WASHINGTON (+12) at Dallas?Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.
THE GOLD SHEET
NCAA
KEY RELEASES- COLLEGE ANALYSIS
PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois
***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20?Notre Dame reverted to recent form,
as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP & 57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season). Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV?NBC (07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1) (07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)
***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17?Creative blitz and stunt packages
devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation. (07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1) (07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4
***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17?Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe
Paterno called his team?s 45-3 romp over Temple ?sloppy? and said he wasn?t happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions, who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV?ABC (07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1) (07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)
NORTHCOAST
Power Sweep
4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17
Power Plays
CFB:
4* Pittsburgh
4* Michigan State
4* LSU
4* N. Illinois
4* Notre Dame
4* Ohio State
4* Nebraska (if line is 7 or less)
4* California
4* Georgia (if line is 7 or less)
4* Bowling Green
4* Oregon
4* South Carolina
4* South Florida
4* FSU
4* New Mexico State
4* San Diego State
4* Kansas State
4* Texas
SCOTT FERRALL
Mich St -9 to IU
Northwestern +8 from Iowa
North Carolina +7.5 from Miami
Ol Miss +23 from Florida
Mississippi St +24.5 from LSU--if they play like they did against Auburn--the Bulldogs will cover on Home Coming at Baton Rouge
Central Mich -6.5 to Buffalo
Minnesota +17.5 from Ohio St
Purdue +2 from Notre Dame
Va Tech +7 from Nebraska
Washington -3.5 to Stanford
Clemson -11.5 to Maryland
JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY FOOTBALL RELEASE
Try to get on this game ASAP.
SATURDAY NCAA FOOTBALL
MIAMI-7 -125 (Try to buy this line down to 6.5 or 7. It will go up. Play small at 7.5 or Cool
PREGAME PODCAST
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Panthers
Buffalo Bills
Ole Miss
Indiana
Ness 25*- Central Michigan
Spreitzer 25*- Washington Huskies
Ron Raymond
1 2008-09-23 RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Pick # 1
Ohio State (-18.0)
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
188 Oklahoma St. -17.0 (-110) BetUS vs 187 Troy
Matty O'Shea | CFB MoneyLine Single-Dime Bet
179 Nevada (+160) BetUS vs 180 UNLV
Matty O'Shea | CFB Total Double-Dime Bet
146 Georgia / 145 Alabama Under 45.0 BetUS
BEN BURNS
CFB BEAT DOWN - BLOWOUT GAME OF MONTH
I'm laying the points with OHIO STATE. Blowout GOM
BEN BURNS
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NON CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. *Non-Conf. GOM
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. *Main Event
Dr. Bob CFB
5 College Best Bets and 5 Strong Opinions this week.
Rotation #141 Stanford (+3) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars from +2 1/2 to -1.
Rotation #162 South Carolina (-25) 3-Stars at -27 or less, 2-Stars at -27 1/2 or -28.
Rotation #166 Ball State (-17 1/2) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars from -21 1/2 to -23.
Rotation #167 South Florida (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #174 Penn State (-15) 2-Stars at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinions are:
Thursday - Rotation #102 Tulane (-1Cool Strong Opinion at -19 or less.
Thursday - Rotation #104 Oregon State (+24 1/2) Strong Opinion at +24 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +27 or more.
Rotation #126 LSU (-24) Strong Opinion at -26 or less.
Rotation #153 Fresno State (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Rotation #163 Army (+27 1/2) Strong Opinion at +27 or more.
3 Star Selection
***BALL ST. (-17.5) 48 Kent State 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take Ball State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars from -21 ? to -23 points.
3 Star Selection
***SOUTH CAROLINA (-25.0) 45 UAB 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take South Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars from -27 ? to -28 points.
3 Star Selection
***Stanford 30 WASHINGTON (-3.0) 21
07:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ? to -1
2 Star Selection
**S. Florida (-9) 31 NO CAROLINA ST. 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and I?d make USF a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.
2 Star Selection
**PENN ST. (-15.0) 40 Illinois 16
05:10 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinion
TULANE (-18.0) 39 SMU 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
I?ll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at -19 points or less.
Strong Opinion
OREGON ST. 16 USC (-24.5) 34
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
The situation favoring Oregon State is just too strong to ignore and I?ll consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more and I?d take Oregon State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Army 12 TEXAS A&M (-27.5) 34
09:30 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
My ratings favor Texas A&M by just 22 points in this game and I?ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +27 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. (-7.0) 32 UCLA 20
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
LSU (-24.0) 37 Mississippi St. 7
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
I?ll consider LSU a Strong Opinion at -26 points or less.
Bettorsworld
3* Alabama +7 over Georgia - There are still some 7's out there. In some spots you'll have to lay -115 to get it, but you want 7 here, not 6.5. This game has all the indications of being a classic SEC primetime battle that comes down to a last second field goal to win it. As a matter of fact, there's far more evidence to support that outcome than a one sided affair.
One glaring reason is Alabama's history of playing close games. While Nick Saban is getting a lot of credit for this due to last years results, a closer look shows us that perhaps the talent in general, at Alabama over the years, deserves the real credit. For instance, one stat being thrown around this week by tout sheets is that Saban and Bama only lost one game by more than a touchdown last year, in Saban's first year. But dig a little deeper and you'll find plenty of close games before Saban got there. How about this. If you gave Alabama +7 points in every game for the last 5 years, not including this year, they would be 41-13 against the spread. If you just took the last 3 years, they would be 26-5 ATS.
Close games and Alabama go hand in hand. The important thing to remember is that during that 5 year stretch, Alabama had some mediocre results in the win loss column. 4-9, 6-6 and 6-7 mixed in with 2 winning years. So while Bama was having losing years, and firing coaches, they were still keeping it close on the scoreboard. That's a testament to the talent that goes to Alabama. In Sabans first year, they started turning some of those close losses into wins. This year their wins aren't even close, winning by an average margin of 36-9 and while the competition level can be questioned, they did knock of Clemson in week one.
People like to mention Quarterbacks and Running Backs when they talk about a football team and their successes or failures, but the unsung heroes are always the offensive and defensive lines. Without the guys in the trenches, we wouldn't know the names of these star QB's and Backs. This is precisely where Alabama is getting it done, both lines. If you've watched ESPN at all this week you've likely seen footage of Bama Nose Tackle, 365 pound Terrence Cody. This kid can disrupt an entire offense singlehandedly. While Georgia will no doubt spend some extra time on him this week, what can you really do? Focus too much on him and that opens the door for someone else to get to Georgia QB Matt Stafford.
There is no knock on Georgia here. But there's clearly more pressure on them. They were handed a lofty #1 ranking before a single game was played this year. Often times teams have a hard time living up to expectations when that happens. But, so far so good. We really have just two games to judge, last week at Arizona State and their previous game at South Carolina. They dominated Arizona State last week and held South Carolina to just 18 yards rushing but the Gamecocks were able to move the ball through the air to the tune of 271 yards
Georgia's home field advantage figures to be even more pronounced this week. It's their "blackout game". It's only happened 3 times in modern history. The team will wear it's black jerseys as will every person who walks through the gates of the stadium. It's a prime time, National TV affair and the crew from ESPN will be their live all day. The place will be a mad house. There's a reason they call it a home field advantage and that advantage WILL come into play Saturday Night.
All the same, we're comfortable taking a touchdown with Bama. If this were a court case being decided before a jury, all the evidence would be pointing towards a close game with an outright upset not an impossibility. These are the kinds of games we like to play. Smash Mouth, old fashioned SEC football. Talent on both sides of the ball. Neither team beating themselves. Both teams are plus in turnovers with Bama at +4 and Georgia at +3. The talent in this one is even. Mistakes and big plays will decide this one. We'll take our chances. 3* Alabama +7
2* Tennessee +6.5 over Auburn - If handicapping football games were easy, we could use logic as simple as the following and do quite well. Tennessee lost to UCLA who then got blown out 59-0 by BYU. Then Tennessee beat a weak UAB team before getting blown out once again by Florida last week. On the other hand, Auburn started out 3-0 with a defense playing superb ball, and SHOULD have won last week at home against LSU to go 4-0. Easy stuff. Automatic play on Auburn huh? Well, maybe not.
These are the types of situations that sure aren't easy to play as a bettor. But they can provide us with some extra value due to the results of both squads year to date. Let's first take into consideration the emotional state of these two teams. Auburn was sky high last week for LSU. National TV audience. Chance to go 4-0 and knock off LSU. What makes it worse is that they had the lead a couple of times and should have won the game. The loss totally deflated this team. To quote coach Tuberville, "We?ve got a disappointed bunch of guys in the locker room. We felt like the way we played at times, we should have won it. They made a few more plays than we did"
Tennessee on the other hand figures to be loose. What do they have to lose? Everyone thinks they are terrible. While they also had a disappoint result last week, it's a little different when the score is 30-6 and you were never in the game to begin with. It's disappointing, sure, but not as disappointing as the Auburn loss. The Vols had already tasted defeat once this season and no one was mentioning their names and National Title in the same breath.
So, so far we have a slight mental edge in favor of the Vols and we have some added value in the line as a result of the Vols score last week not being close while Auburn could have won their game. But how about the talent that these two bring to the table? Well, first let's revisit last season. In case anyone forgot, the Vols started out last season in similar fashion. In their first 3 games, they were blown out by Cal and by Florida and beat So Miss to start 1-2. Just like this year, they were calling for Fulmer to be fired (someone called a radio show Fulmer was on this week and asked if he was going to resign) The Vols responded to last years 1-2 star by winning 8 of their next 9 games and landing themselves in the SEC title game.
Fulmer gets bashed quite a bit. But his teams have always responded for him when their backs were up against the wall. In 2005 they went 5-6 which is unacceptable in Vol Land. Fulmer was all but done if he didn't produce. The team responded with a 9-4 mark in 2006 and the last years 10-4 capped with Bowl game win over Wisconsin. You don't last 17 years in Tennessee without doing something right.
The Vols lost QB Eric Ainge which has hurt. But there's 8 starters on this offense from a year ago and six on the defensive side of the ball. This team will score some points this year you can be sure of that. Which brings us to where we feel the Vols have a shot this week. The Tennessee defense actually played well last week. Sometimes the score on the scoreboard doesn't tell the whole story. They held Florida to just two offensive touchdowns. Florida had a few field goals and a punt return for a TD. 3 Turnovers and a ton of penalties added to the Vols problems. Each team had 16 first downs and about 250 yards of total offense.
Auburn on the other hand, came back down to earth a tad defensively against the first real offensive threat it has faced this year. They gave up 178 rushing yards and 220 thru the air while offensively they had just 70 yards on the ground. So this defense has some holes. As long as this Auburn offense is a work in progress, it opens the door for teams like the Vols to stay close. If the Vols can slow down Tebow and the Gators they should be able to handle a brand new Auburn spread offense with just a few games under their belts.
The potential to keep it close combined with the mental edge the Vols are likely to have has us taking the +6.5 here. To use another quote, this one from Auburn QB Chris Todd - "It was real exciting. There?s nothing like it,? Todd said. ?The adrenaline rush, playing on that stage was awesome. You?d like to win, but it came down to the end, and those are the type of games you like to play in"
That was last week. Now that the adrenaline rush has worn off, do you think Auburn will be as high for the Vols this week? Or perhaps a little flat?
2* Tennessee +6.5
Bettorsworld
3* San Jose +3 over Hawaii - One of the most important stats for any handicapper to be aware of is turnovers. It should come as no surprise that there is a direct correlation between wins and losses and turnover differential. Not just wins and losses straight up, but wins and losses against the spread as well. Sure, in college ball, there are plenty of games where simple talent wins out. But all things being equal, when two teams tangle where the talent level is fairly even, you can be sure that the deciding factor will be a mistake. Most likely a turnover.
Turnovers are rarely accidents. Sure, every once in a while a simple flub will happen. A drop. A wet ball. But most of the times turnovers are created. A defense creates turnovers because they get after the ball and hit hard. A defense creates turnovers because the pass rush is good and they hurry the Quarterback and because the pass coverage is so good downfield that opposing QB's are constantly throwing into coverage. Special teams creates turnovers as a result of great kicking team coverage getting downfield in a hurry and getting after the ball.
Likewise, turnovers are created by the offense and the coaching staff. A poorly coached team, where the left hand doesn't know what the right is doing, generally turns the ball over. A receiver may run a wrong route. A back may go left when the play is to the right and so on and so on. Which brings us to Hawaii. Hawaii is dead last in the nation in turnover margin at -9. To be fair, they had to play Florida in week one and they did turn the ball over 6 times in that one, but there may be more to the story than just getting blown out by one of the best teams in the country.
Hawaii figured to be hurting coming into this year. They have the fewest returning starters in the WAC and a brand new coaching staff including the head man Mcmackin who was the defensive coordinator last year. The new offensive coordinator was a high school coach last year. So we have new coaches, new players and of course new schemes to learn which in turn creates a great opportunity for their to be confusion and ........turnovers. Gone are June Jones and Colt Brennan as well as several other key pieces to the 12-1 season a year ago. No shame in the loss to Florida but they also lost to Oregon State 45-7 and Oregon State lost to Stanford and was blown away by Penn State.
San Jose State on the other hand has played some competitive football at times this year. They trailed 14-12 at Nebraska early in the 4th quarter until a kick return swung the momentum in that one and Nebraska scored 3 td's in the 4 quarter to win 35-12. Statistically, the game was dead even across the board. Last week at Stanford they had a 10-7 lead at the half and trailed 13-10 after 3 before giving up 10 in the 4th quarter. They also own wins over Cal Davis and San Diego State. If there's a problem at San Jose, it's in maintaining a lead late in games.
Huge coaching edge for San Jose. Dick Tomey took Arizona to 7 Bowl games in the 90's and has won where ever he has been, including Hawaii. He also guided this San Jose team to as 9-4 mark in just his 2nd year here, 2006. Again, a well coached team is not likely to beat themselves. Also, having coached in Hawaii, he knows how to handle his kids once there. Knows the distractions and what to keep them away from to maintain focus.
Ultimately, we doubt Hawaii is as bad as they have looked. However, we don't think they are very good either. San Jose appears to be the better team thus far. At worst, these two are fairly even which brings is back to the coaching and the turnovers. Hawaii is a work on progress. A new project. San Jose has everything in place.
Lastly we bring up the punching bag syndrome. We mention this quite a bit over the course of a college football season. We mention it, because it's an important factor often overlooked. When one team dominates another for many years, when the chance to turn the tables presents itself, teams are likely to take advantage. In this series, Hawaii has won 7 straight years. Which means there's not a senior on this San Jose State team that's ever beaten Hawaii. No one wants to go thru their entire college football career having never beaten a team they have had 4 or 5 cracks at. So there's added incentive.
If you doubt these teams are at least equal in talent, consider this. Last year, in Hawaii's 12-1 year, with June Jones and Colt Brennan and all the rest of the weapons, San Jose State took them to overtime where Hawaii pulled it out 42-35. San Jose has 7 returning starters on offense and 6 on defense. Hawaii has just 4 on each side of the ball.
This year Hawaii is averaging fewer than 300 yards per game on offense, QB Tyler Graunke has an injured throwing hand (think turnovers) and they are rushing for only 3.2 yards per carry. San Jose State held San Diego State to 6 yards rushing.
All is not perfect for San Jose. They are having trouble late in games. Last week Stanford got aggressive defensively and had 6 sacks in the 2nd half and had San Jose at -24 yards in the 4th quarter. But we think they are the more talented and better coached team in this one and have far more positives to draw on than Hawaii does at this stage of the season. We're looking for San Jose to break the 7 game losing streak and win this one straight up and we'll gladly take the +3 as a bonus. 3* San Jose State +3 over Hawaii
1* Virginia +7 over Duke - ** (Line moved to +6.5 most places before we could get this out. We're only going to use this as a 1* play either way. We prefer +7 but still a play at +6. )We're not here to knock Duke. There's only one way to go for this program and that's up. They have already have a smany wins this year as the last 3 years combined, so hats off to David Cutcliffe and company. Duke is playing some good solid football on both sides of the ball and figures to be competitive, although it won't be easy the rest of the way.
What we have here is a major overreaction to each teams results thus far. Virginia is 1-2. They beat Richmond but were obliterated by USC and Uconn by a combined score of 97-17 giving up over 500 yards of offense to both the Huskies and Trojans. Meanwhile Duke is 2-1 to start the year and has folks paying attention. So, sure, if you just look at the scoreboard and the stats, Duke is deserving of the 7 point favorite role. However, if you dig a little deeper, and attach team names to those results, perhaps not. Duke beat James Madison and Navy and lost to Northwestern. Not so impressive really. Not compared to USC and Uconn. Point being, if it wasn't Duke, no one would care. They'd simply say this team hasn't beaten anyone yet.
The reason Duke is getting some attention is because they are 10-82 straight up this decade. That's right. 10 wins and 82 losses. Not very good huh? Yet here they are, favored by 7 points this week. They are favored based on their two wins and the fact that Virginia got blown out in their two losses. But really folks, how much is a team going to change in one year? This isn't pro ball where teams go from worst to first in a year. Change in college football is gradual. 2 wins one year. 5 the next. 7 or 8 after that, and then, who knows.
Duke has been the worst team in college football for many years. While they may improve a little each year, don't expect too many more wins from them this year. As a matter of fact, this week against Virginia may be their last legitimate shot at another win all year looking at their schedule. They may in fact get that win too, as Virginia certainly isn't playing very well. It's simply not logical though, to think Virginia doesn't have a good shot here as well. If anything this one figures to be close.
Virginia was 9-4 a year ago. They were involved in a ton of close games. They have won 57 games this decade. That's 47 more than Duke. They get better talent through their recruiting efforts than Duke does. They have some key holes to fill but still return half of their offense and defense from a year ago, a team that aside from going 9-4, beat Duke 24-13. They have outscored Duke by an average 20 points per game the last 19 years and have gone 17-2 straight up during that time.
Playing and losing to USC is actually a positive here. We talk about this quite a bit. You play a team like USC, especially early in the year, and everything you have been working on in practice falls apart when you try and implement it in the game. USC is just too good. But then you get in there against a team like Duke, and bingo, things start to work they way they were designed.
Virginia has some problems for sure but let's not get too carried away with either of these two teams results after 3 games. Virginia is more than likely not as bad as they have looked. Duke is more than likely not as good as they have looked. What you more than likely have here, is two mediocre to bad teams. One on their way up, one on their way down. The most likely scenario here is a close game that comes down to the 4th quarter. We're getting some added value here based on season to date results and at the end of the day, this is still Duke. 1-11 last year. 0-12 the year before that. And so on, and so on. 1* Virginia +7
Tommy Rider Sat Cfb Card
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Triple Dime : Cinn -10 Over Akron @ 330 Et ( Gom)
Double Dime : East Carolina / Houston Over 56 @ 330 Et
Single Dime : Pitt -15 Over Syracuse @ 1200 Et
Single Dime : Marshall + 14.5 Over West Virginia @ 330 Et
Single Dime : Miss + 23(-115) Over Florida @ 1230 Et
Single Dime : Arkansas (+130) (ml) Over Memphis @ 200 Et
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, September 27, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: TWO WORDS...EASY WINNER!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 56-26 run with all selections and we were a PERFECT 15-5 in College and Pro Football the past two weeks! WE ARE SMOKEN!!! 9/25/2008
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
162 South Carolina -26 7:00 EST
5* plays
Alabama+7
UNLV-4
SAN DIEGO ST-11
RICE-17.5
FRESNO ST+7.5
BALL ST-19
kodiak -33units ytd football
10units:
Marshall +14
Ole Miss +22.5
SMU +18.5
Michigan +7
Western Michigan -4
Buffalo +7
Michigan St. over 49.5
Coling Cowherd Saturday 9/27 Picks
TCU +19
LSU -23
Alabama +7
Notre Dame -1
Penn St. -14
Football Jesus Saturday early release Notre Dame -1
The Sharp Moves
Hatchet Sports:
SATURDAY SEPT 27th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
OKLAHOMA STATE
The Sharp Moves
Offshore Elite:
OFFSHORE ELITE
SATURDAY SEPT 27th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TOLEDO
The Sharp Moves
Supreme Sports:
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SPECIAL GUARANTEED MOUNTAIN WEST GOY!
SAN DIEGO STATE
The Sharp Moves
Oskeim:
Alabama (+7) (-110) over Georgia
Georgia is coming off an impressive 27-10 win over Arizona State, although the Bulldogs did not return home from the west coast until early Sunday morning which will adversely affect their preparation time for facing Alabama. Alabama head coach Nick Saban is a remarkable 10-0-1 ATS as a conference underdog with revenge off a conference win versus a conference opponent off a straight-up win. Moreover, Georgia head coach Mark Richt is a money-burning 1-5 ATS following consecutive road games and 3-7 ATS at home before a game involving revenge (Georgia has Tennessee on deck).
Alabamas offense has been excellent this year as the Tide are averaging 36 points per game, including 237 rushing yards (5.9 yards per rush attempt) and 387 total yards (5.9 yards per play; 10.8 yards per point) versus teams that would combine to allow just 22.8 points per game, 4.1 yards per rush attempt, 5.1 yards per play and 13.7 yards per point to an average offensive squad. Lets also note that Alabama is averaging 41.5 points per game on the road this season, including 283 rushing yards (6.7 yards per pass play) and 410 total yards (6.3 yards per play; 9.9 yards per point).
Finally, the Crimson Tide, while being young, boast an outstanding defense that is allowing a paltry 9.2 points per game, including 55 rushing yards (2.2 yards per carry), 188 passing yards (4.8 yards per pass play) and 243 total yards (3.8 yards per play; 26.3 yards per point) versus teams that would average 25.5 points per game, 3.7 yards per rush attempt, 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 5.3 yards per play and 14.2 yards per point against an average defense. One of my favorite investment propositions is taking a .500 or better underdog that possesses both a solid running attack (4.4 yards per carry or more) and a stout defense. We get both with Alabama and seven points to boot!
Technicians Corner: Alabama head coach Nick Saban is a profitable 21-13-1 ATS when taking points in conference games, including 15-6 ATS versus an opponent off a SU/ATS win and 14-3 ATS from Game Five out
madduxsports...
Football
#117 - NCAA - 3 units on Northwestern +9
#129 - NCAA - 5 units on Buffalo +7
#132 - NCAA - 3 units on Akron +10.5
#150 - NCAA - 3 units on Michigan +6
#181 - NCAA - 3 units on San Jose State +3
spylock ( 8-1-2 this year)
ALL 1 UNIT PLAYS
Iowa-8
auburn-6 1/2
troy +17
penn state-16
TCU +18 1/2
