- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 69-53-4 (+19.0)
OU: 50-45-1 (+0.3)
ML dogs: 1-5 (-3.65)
The Wizards won, the Wizards won!! It is almost as exciting as a Bobcats win would be (and I don?t expect that to be coming tonight, either). Now they are off to meet a Bulls team that was just demolished on national TV a few days ago. Might not be such a great spot to start a winning streak... Since 1995, teams that snapped an 8+ game losing streak that are playing as a road dog with no rest are 3-19 SU (-14.8 ppg). Since the 2009 season, the Wizards are 0-13 SU (-17.7 ppg) and 1-11-1 ATS as a road dog after winning at home as a dog. I?m not sure which is worse...that record or the fact that there are only 13 such occurrences in the course of 3+ seasons. [I removed one game from this record, when the Wizards beat the Heat because they were resting their team for the playoffs - Washington won by 2].
The Wizards do not fair well as a road dog against good defensive teams. When facing a total less than 185, they are 0-8 SU (-13.2 ppg) in their last 8. As a road dog with no rest, they are 0-15 SU (-12.6 ppg) in their last 15. They shot 13% above their effective field goal percentage for the year last night, which for one game put them as an equal of what the Knicks have averaged for the year... and they managed to beat the Magic.
Since the calendar year 2006, when teams that have a 3+ percentage point advantage in both field goal and three point averages over their opponent, and their opponent has no rest and averages more fast break points, teams are 57-6 SU (+12.1).
The Bulls were embarrassed at home by the Rockets in their last game. After a game where they allowed their opponents 15 or more points than expected, the Bulls respond well as a favorite, going 7-1 SU (+14.4 ppg) in their last 8. It seems that the higher the defensive blunder, the better their numbers get. When the opponents above expected is increased to 20, they are 4-0 SU (+22.2 ppg) in the last 4. When playing as a home favorite off a loss as a home favorite, the Bulls are 10-0 SU (+14.0) since the 2010 season. In the calendar year of 2012, when the Bulls are favored by 10+ points in a game, they are 18-2 SU (+13.5 ppg).
Hamilton and Deng should be back tonight for the Bulls. Don?t love that, but I think with the extended rest period it should not play a huge factor. The Bulls have owned the Wizards recently, going 7-1 SU (+11.2 ppg) in the last 8 matchups. If there is a time of year where having a longer break can be extra beneficial, it is over the holiday season. The Bulls have had ample time off to prepare for this game. They have the Bobcats on deck, so there is no look-ahead. There is only look behind for both teams, and the Bulls should come out with a little fire to quell their Christmas debacle.
Bulls -10.5 x2
Bucks +4
Grizzlies -6
A few other interesting stats for tonight:
Grizzlies as a home favorite following two losses are 8-1 SU (+9.2 ppg) and 2-7 U in their last 9. When seeking same-season revenge, the Grizzlies are 8-0 SU (+8.1) in their last 8. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS on no rest in their last 8 when they are playing an opponent they beat already this season.
The Timberwolves off a loss where they led by 10+ points are 1-11 SU (-11.8 ppg) and 0-12 ATS in their last 12.
Good luck...
OU: 50-45-1 (+0.3)
ML dogs: 1-5 (-3.65)
The Wizards won, the Wizards won!! It is almost as exciting as a Bobcats win would be (and I don?t expect that to be coming tonight, either). Now they are off to meet a Bulls team that was just demolished on national TV a few days ago. Might not be such a great spot to start a winning streak... Since 1995, teams that snapped an 8+ game losing streak that are playing as a road dog with no rest are 3-19 SU (-14.8 ppg). Since the 2009 season, the Wizards are 0-13 SU (-17.7 ppg) and 1-11-1 ATS as a road dog after winning at home as a dog. I?m not sure which is worse...that record or the fact that there are only 13 such occurrences in the course of 3+ seasons. [I removed one game from this record, when the Wizards beat the Heat because they were resting their team for the playoffs - Washington won by 2].
The Wizards do not fair well as a road dog against good defensive teams. When facing a total less than 185, they are 0-8 SU (-13.2 ppg) in their last 8. As a road dog with no rest, they are 0-15 SU (-12.6 ppg) in their last 15. They shot 13% above their effective field goal percentage for the year last night, which for one game put them as an equal of what the Knicks have averaged for the year... and they managed to beat the Magic.
Since the calendar year 2006, when teams that have a 3+ percentage point advantage in both field goal and three point averages over their opponent, and their opponent has no rest and averages more fast break points, teams are 57-6 SU (+12.1).
The Bulls were embarrassed at home by the Rockets in their last game. After a game where they allowed their opponents 15 or more points than expected, the Bulls respond well as a favorite, going 7-1 SU (+14.4 ppg) in their last 8. It seems that the higher the defensive blunder, the better their numbers get. When the opponents above expected is increased to 20, they are 4-0 SU (+22.2 ppg) in the last 4. When playing as a home favorite off a loss as a home favorite, the Bulls are 10-0 SU (+14.0) since the 2010 season. In the calendar year of 2012, when the Bulls are favored by 10+ points in a game, they are 18-2 SU (+13.5 ppg).
Hamilton and Deng should be back tonight for the Bulls. Don?t love that, but I think with the extended rest period it should not play a huge factor. The Bulls have owned the Wizards recently, going 7-1 SU (+11.2 ppg) in the last 8 matchups. If there is a time of year where having a longer break can be extra beneficial, it is over the holiday season. The Bulls have had ample time off to prepare for this game. They have the Bobcats on deck, so there is no look-ahead. There is only look behind for both teams, and the Bulls should come out with a little fire to quell their Christmas debacle.
Bulls -10.5 x2
Bucks +4
Grizzlies -6
A few other interesting stats for tonight:
Grizzlies as a home favorite following two losses are 8-1 SU (+9.2 ppg) and 2-7 U in their last 9. When seeking same-season revenge, the Grizzlies are 8-0 SU (+8.1) in their last 8. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS on no rest in their last 8 when they are playing an opponent they beat already this season.
The Timberwolves off a loss where they led by 10+ points are 1-11 SU (-11.8 ppg) and 0-12 ATS in their last 12.
Good luck...
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