- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 80-57-4 (+24.3)
OU: 50-45-1 (+0.3)
ML dogs: 2-5 (+1.1)
Jazz vs. Nuggets
Denver is coming off a home loss to the Timberwolves, in a game where they had only 7 turnovers. This will be their third matchup against the Jazz this year. They lost the last matchup in Utah and won the first one at home.
Utah played last night in Phoenix, and won that game.
In this time period, they are also 8-2 SU (+12.0) and 10-0 ATS after a game where they had a field goal attempt per turnover ratio of at least 8. When the Nuggets are playing at home as a favorite in the first game of a back to back when their next game is on the road, they are 7-1 SU (+12.6) and ATS in their last 8.
The Nuggets have an edge over the Jazz in points in the paint (+12.6) and rebounds (+3.8). The Jazz are the second to worst team in the league at defending the paint, and I don?t see this improving tonight on a back to back. The Nuggets also average more free throw attempts per game (although a slim margin, but as the home team vs opponent they have a more decisive edge).
Warriors vs. Clippers
It is hard to beat a comparably matched team three times in a row in the same season.
The Clippers have had a rough schedule recently, but last night they had plenty of hops against the Lakers.
Crawford is out again tonight for the Clippers, and this line seems way too good to be true for Golden State. They have beat the Clippers by 14 and by 21 already this season, and now they are 6 point dogs?? To me, it is begging for Warriors action.
Rockets vs. Cavaliers
All of these trends speak to one thing. The fact that the Cavaliers cannot play defense very well and that the Rockets are great on the offensive end. The Cavaliers are 25th in the league in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets are the top scoring team in the league. The Cavs played a hard fought game last night in Charlotte, and I can?t see their defense improving against a team that wants to run against them on a back to back. The Rockets are shooting the ball great right now. Last night they shot over 50% from the field against a Bucks team that is in the upper half of the league in shooting percentage allowed (44.5%). This season, after a win in which teams shot over 50% from the field, they are 18-5 SU (+7 ppg) and 15-8 ATS as a road favorite. After a road win, they are 7-1 SU (+7.1 ppg) and 6-2 ATS.
Sixers vs. Spurs
The Sixers are playing their eighth away game, their fourth in five, and a back to back.
When playing in an isolated home game, the Spurs are 11-2 SU (+13 ppg) and 10-3 ATS in their last 13. The Spurs are 10-0 (+13.9) ppg and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a game they lost by 10 or more when playing as a home favorite when they are rested against an unrested opponent. The Spurs are looking to rebound from an embarassing outing vs. the Knicks, in which they shot 36.4% from the field. Under Popovich, the Spurs are 15-1 SU (+14.4) and 11-3-2 ATS in this same situation.
The Spurs are 8-0 in their last eight vs. the Sixers (+13 ppg) at home.
Hate swallowing so much chalk on one night. I prefer betting dogs, and there are some good ones on the board today, but going with four favorites tonight.
Nuggets -9.5
Rockets -6
Spurs -13
Clippers -6
Rockets-Cavs OVER 209.5 kurby kurby
A few other notes for tonight:
Teams playing 4th in 5 nights:
Clippers
Sacramento (also 4th away)
Philadelphia (also 8th away)
Portland (also 4th away)
Since the 2010 season...
Home favorites playing 4th in 5:
42-16 SU (+6.9 ppg)
30-28 ATS
Road dogs playing 4th in 5:
20-85 SU (-9.1)
46-57-2 ATS
Road dogs playing 4th in 5, all road games:
4-18 SU (-10.1 ppg)
10-12 ATS
Kings vs. Nets
The Kings are playing a back to back, their fourth in five nights, and their fourth away.
The Nets are coming off a double overtime win.
I found a lot of other trends that pointed to Sacramento, but there are too many questionable factors to play on them tonight. Playing dogs off upsets, especially considering the Kings rest and lack of mental toughness is not where I want to put my money.
Bucks vs. Pacers
The Bucks are 0-12 (-9.3 ppg) and 2-10 ATS as a road dog following a game where they allowed their opponent to shoot over 50% from the field.
Pacers should have their way with the Bucks tonight, but they are such a wildcard team for me - never know what they are going to give. And, I ate enough chalk for one day, haha!
Good luck...
OU: 50-45-1 (+0.3)
ML dogs: 2-5 (+1.1)
Jazz vs. Nuggets
Denver is coming off a home loss to the Timberwolves, in a game where they had only 7 turnovers. This will be their third matchup against the Jazz this year. They lost the last matchup in Utah and won the first one at home.
Utah played last night in Phoenix, and won that game.
In this time period, they are also 8-2 SU (+12.0) and 10-0 ATS after a game where they had a field goal attempt per turnover ratio of at least 8. When the Nuggets are playing at home as a favorite in the first game of a back to back when their next game is on the road, they are 7-1 SU (+12.6) and ATS in their last 8.
The Nuggets have an edge over the Jazz in points in the paint (+12.6) and rebounds (+3.8). The Jazz are the second to worst team in the league at defending the paint, and I don?t see this improving tonight on a back to back. The Nuggets also average more free throw attempts per game (although a slim margin, but as the home team vs opponent they have a more decisive edge).
Warriors vs. Clippers
It is hard to beat a comparably matched team three times in a row in the same season.
The Clippers have had a rough schedule recently, but last night they had plenty of hops against the Lakers.
Crawford is out again tonight for the Clippers, and this line seems way too good to be true for Golden State. They have beat the Clippers by 14 and by 21 already this season, and now they are 6 point dogs?? To me, it is begging for Warriors action.
Rockets vs. Cavaliers
All of these trends speak to one thing. The fact that the Cavaliers cannot play defense very well and that the Rockets are great on the offensive end. The Cavaliers are 25th in the league in defensive efficiency, and the Rockets are the top scoring team in the league. The Cavs played a hard fought game last night in Charlotte, and I can?t see their defense improving against a team that wants to run against them on a back to back. The Rockets are shooting the ball great right now. Last night they shot over 50% from the field against a Bucks team that is in the upper half of the league in shooting percentage allowed (44.5%). This season, after a win in which teams shot over 50% from the field, they are 18-5 SU (+7 ppg) and 15-8 ATS as a road favorite. After a road win, they are 7-1 SU (+7.1 ppg) and 6-2 ATS.
Sixers vs. Spurs
The Sixers are playing their eighth away game, their fourth in five, and a back to back.
When playing in an isolated home game, the Spurs are 11-2 SU (+13 ppg) and 10-3 ATS in their last 13. The Spurs are 10-0 (+13.9) ppg and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a game they lost by 10 or more when playing as a home favorite when they are rested against an unrested opponent. The Spurs are looking to rebound from an embarassing outing vs. the Knicks, in which they shot 36.4% from the field. Under Popovich, the Spurs are 15-1 SU (+14.4) and 11-3-2 ATS in this same situation.
The Spurs are 8-0 in their last eight vs. the Sixers (+13 ppg) at home.
Hate swallowing so much chalk on one night. I prefer betting dogs, and there are some good ones on the board today, but going with four favorites tonight.
Nuggets -9.5
Rockets -6
Spurs -13
Clippers -6
Rockets-Cavs OVER 209.5 kurby kurby
A few other notes for tonight:
Teams playing 4th in 5 nights:
Clippers
Sacramento (also 4th away)
Philadelphia (also 8th away)
Portland (also 4th away)
Since the 2010 season...
Home favorites playing 4th in 5:
42-16 SU (+6.9 ppg)
30-28 ATS
Road dogs playing 4th in 5:
20-85 SU (-9.1)
46-57-2 ATS
Road dogs playing 4th in 5, all road games:
4-18 SU (-10.1 ppg)
10-12 ATS
Kings vs. Nets
The Kings are playing a back to back, their fourth in five nights, and their fourth away.
The Nets are coming off a double overtime win.
I found a lot of other trends that pointed to Sacramento, but there are too many questionable factors to play on them tonight. Playing dogs off upsets, especially considering the Kings rest and lack of mental toughness is not where I want to put my money.
Bucks vs. Pacers
The Bucks are 0-12 (-9.3 ppg) and 2-10 ATS as a road dog following a game where they allowed their opponent to shoot over 50% from the field.
Pacers should have their way with the Bucks tonight, but they are such a wildcard team for me - never know what they are going to give. And, I ate enough chalk for one day, haha!
Good luck...
Last edited:
