- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 114-83-6 (+34.2)
OU: 64-54-2 (+3.3)
ML dogs: 4-7 (+3.05)
Wolves
Teams playing their fifth game in seven days as a road dog, when they are playing in at least their fourth on the road and their next game is at home are 2-31 SU (-11.7 ppg) and 12-21 ATS since the 2007 season. Since the 2001 season, teams playing as a road dog when playing their fifth in seventh after playing in Denver are 3-12 SU (-12.1 ppg) and 5-10 ATS when their next game is at home. Since the 2010 season, teams playing in the last game of an at least four game road trip on no rest are 7-21 SU and 11-17 ATS. Since the 2001 season, teams coming off two road losses where they covered the first and failed to cover in the second are 11-66 SU (-11.3 ppg) and 32-44-1 ATS playing as a road dog with no rest.
Teams coming off a loss where they had 12 or more turnovers than their opponent are 13-30 SU (-6.9 ppg) and ATS since the 1999 season when playing on the road. Eric Gordon is still unable to play in back to back games, and should sit this one out.
The Timberwolves are 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12. Really bad...but, tonight is the first time in all those games they have been favored, and Adelman just returned to the bench a couple games ago. Eight of those games were against winning teams, and they were injury plagued during this stretch. Tonight, they get the perfect spot to snap a 6 game losing streak.
Warriors
Since last season, teams playing on the road with no rest against a rested opponent after a home loss as a favorite are 8-13 ATS. Teams coming off a loss when they led after the third quarter playing on no rest on the road as a dog against a rested opponent, teams are 33-50-4 ATS since the 2008 season.
Warriors since the 2009 season are 11-3 SU (+9.6 ppg) and 9-5 ATS as a home favorite after beating a team on the road in the same season.
Since the 2000 season, teams seeking road revenge as a dog coming off a loss as a favorite, when they have less rest than their opponent are 2-17 SU and 6-13 ATS when they lost the previous matchup by a one possession margin.
The Suns are 0-10-1 in their last eleven games coming off a home loss as a favorite in a game in which they led by double digits.
Spurs
Since the 2006 season, the Spurs are 12-0 (+19.0) and 11-1 ATS vs the Wizards. This season, the Spurs as a home favorite of 8 or more are 17-0 SU (+16.9) and 11-5-1 ATS.
Teams playing their fourth game in six days against the Spurs on the road as a dog are 2-26 SU (-13.1 ppg) and 7-21-0 ATS since last season. This season, they are 0-10 SU (-17.6 ppg) and 3-7 ATS.
Teams that held a halftime lead in their previous game, but ended up losing as a dog, have been down by 6 or more at half in their next game 55% of the time since the 2001 season. The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league on their home court in average first half margin (+6 ppg), and the Wizards are the third worst in the league on the road (-6.8 ppg).
Orlando
Teams playing on the road on a 7+ game ATS losing streak when their last game was on the road are 16-20 SU and 23-11-2 ATS since the 2001 season. Teams playing as a road dog after three road games in which they did not cover the spread are 17-21 SU and 25-12-1 ATS.
Since the 2010 season, the Magic are 7-1 SU against the Bucks. The Magic are 7-3-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 8 or more. The Bucks are 3-7-1 ATS this season when playing on no rest. The Bucks are 4-9 ATS since the 2010 season as a home favorite of 8 or more.
The Bucks have had a tough schedule recently, bouncing back and forth from road to home games, and playing two tough physical competitors in their last two. They have just one home game before they head out on the road to play the Nuggets. Since the 2000 season, teams playing their fourth game in five nights when they have been bouncing back and forth between home and away games are 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Jameer Nelson may be out tonight, and Glen Davis is out and Afflalo questionable. However, this may actually be in Orlando?s favor, as players that don?t get the spotlight much get to step up. In their loss to Boston last night, one of their rookies scored the final nine points off their bench.
"I think you have to just remain positive," Redick said. "You have to keep perspective and you have to continue to play to win. It's an uphill battle right now given the losing streak, the injuries. It's an uphill battle, but you have to remain positive and play hard. We're going to keep doing that."
I know... I shouldn?t bet on horrible teams playing in their fourth straight road game, on a back to back, in their fourth game in six days... but, they are going to win one of these, and this is just too many points for a Bucks team that is inconsistent. I think that one of these big favorites has to lose tonight!? Oh yea, and I asked them to assign my favorite home cooler ref for the game, and the league gladly obliged. Marat Kogut... home team is 6-20-1 ATS this season with him on the crew, and he is coming off one of those wins. Home favs of 5+ are 3-10 ATS with him at the whistle this season.
Wolves -3
Warriors -8.5
Spurs 1H -7.5
Magic +10
Magic ML +450
Wizards-Spurs UNDER 194.5
Good luck...
OU: 64-54-2 (+3.3)
ML dogs: 4-7 (+3.05)
Wolves
Teams playing their fifth game in seven days as a road dog, when they are playing in at least their fourth on the road and their next game is at home are 2-31 SU (-11.7 ppg) and 12-21 ATS since the 2007 season. Since the 2001 season, teams playing as a road dog when playing their fifth in seventh after playing in Denver are 3-12 SU (-12.1 ppg) and 5-10 ATS when their next game is at home. Since the 2010 season, teams playing in the last game of an at least four game road trip on no rest are 7-21 SU and 11-17 ATS. Since the 2001 season, teams coming off two road losses where they covered the first and failed to cover in the second are 11-66 SU (-11.3 ppg) and 32-44-1 ATS playing as a road dog with no rest.
Teams coming off a loss where they had 12 or more turnovers than their opponent are 13-30 SU (-6.9 ppg) and ATS since the 1999 season when playing on the road. Eric Gordon is still unable to play in back to back games, and should sit this one out.
The Timberwolves are 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12. Really bad...but, tonight is the first time in all those games they have been favored, and Adelman just returned to the bench a couple games ago. Eight of those games were against winning teams, and they were injury plagued during this stretch. Tonight, they get the perfect spot to snap a 6 game losing streak.
Warriors
Since last season, teams playing on the road with no rest against a rested opponent after a home loss as a favorite are 8-13 ATS. Teams coming off a loss when they led after the third quarter playing on no rest on the road as a dog against a rested opponent, teams are 33-50-4 ATS since the 2008 season.
Warriors since the 2009 season are 11-3 SU (+9.6 ppg) and 9-5 ATS as a home favorite after beating a team on the road in the same season.
Since the 2000 season, teams seeking road revenge as a dog coming off a loss as a favorite, when they have less rest than their opponent are 2-17 SU and 6-13 ATS when they lost the previous matchup by a one possession margin.
The Suns are 0-10-1 in their last eleven games coming off a home loss as a favorite in a game in which they led by double digits.
Spurs
Since the 2006 season, the Spurs are 12-0 (+19.0) and 11-1 ATS vs the Wizards. This season, the Spurs as a home favorite of 8 or more are 17-0 SU (+16.9) and 11-5-1 ATS.
Teams playing their fourth game in six days against the Spurs on the road as a dog are 2-26 SU (-13.1 ppg) and 7-21-0 ATS since last season. This season, they are 0-10 SU (-17.6 ppg) and 3-7 ATS.
Teams that held a halftime lead in their previous game, but ended up losing as a dog, have been down by 6 or more at half in their next game 55% of the time since the 2001 season. The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league on their home court in average first half margin (+6 ppg), and the Wizards are the third worst in the league on the road (-6.8 ppg).
Orlando
Teams playing on the road on a 7+ game ATS losing streak when their last game was on the road are 16-20 SU and 23-11-2 ATS since the 2001 season. Teams playing as a road dog after three road games in which they did not cover the spread are 17-21 SU and 25-12-1 ATS.
Since the 2010 season, the Magic are 7-1 SU against the Bucks. The Magic are 7-3-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 8 or more. The Bucks are 3-7-1 ATS this season when playing on no rest. The Bucks are 4-9 ATS since the 2010 season as a home favorite of 8 or more.
The Bucks have had a tough schedule recently, bouncing back and forth from road to home games, and playing two tough physical competitors in their last two. They have just one home game before they head out on the road to play the Nuggets. Since the 2000 season, teams playing their fourth game in five nights when they have been bouncing back and forth between home and away games are 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Jameer Nelson may be out tonight, and Glen Davis is out and Afflalo questionable. However, this may actually be in Orlando?s favor, as players that don?t get the spotlight much get to step up. In their loss to Boston last night, one of their rookies scored the final nine points off their bench.
"I think you have to just remain positive," Redick said. "You have to keep perspective and you have to continue to play to win. It's an uphill battle right now given the losing streak, the injuries. It's an uphill battle, but you have to remain positive and play hard. We're going to keep doing that."
I know... I shouldn?t bet on horrible teams playing in their fourth straight road game, on a back to back, in their fourth game in six days... but, they are going to win one of these, and this is just too many points for a Bucks team that is inconsistent. I think that one of these big favorites has to lose tonight!? Oh yea, and I asked them to assign my favorite home cooler ref for the game, and the league gladly obliged. Marat Kogut... home team is 6-20-1 ATS this season with him on the crew, and he is coming off one of those wins. Home favs of 5+ are 3-10 ATS with him at the whistle this season.
Wolves -3
Warriors -8.5
Spurs 1H -7.5
Magic +10
Magic ML +450
Wizards-Spurs UNDER 194.5
Good luck...
