- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 121-86-6 (+38.9)
OU: 66-59-2 (-0.2)
ML dogs: 5-8 (+3.6)
Sixers
The Sixers are coming off a home loss to the Pacers. Teams playing at home as a favorite of three or more (average line -7.6) are 89-17 (+11.7 ppg) and 68-37 ATS when coming off a home loss against opponents who are also coming off a home loss when they are more rested than their opponent. Teams playing as a home favorite after a double digit home loss in which they were favored are 41-21 ATS when they are playing on two days rest since the 2005 season.
The Sixers have been playing great defense at home, giving up only 78.3 ppg in their last 4, and holding these opponents to 40% or less from the field. Since the 2010 season, the Bobcats are 3-46 SU (-17.2) and 8-39 ATS when their opponent holds them under 40% from the field. They have been averaging just 42% on the road this season. The Sixers are 17-6 ATS this season when they hold their opponent under 45%, and they should be up to the task tonight. Teams coming off of two games where they held their opponent to under 40% are 25-2 SU (+14.2 ppg) and 18-5-4 ATS (average line -7.8) when playing at home as a favorite after losing their last game since the 2007 season.
The Bobcats have had a trying schedule recently. Teams that are coming off an isolated home game after an at least five game road trip are 12-68 SU (-11.4 ppg) and 21-58-1 ATS since the 2004 season when playing on the road as a dog in a conference matchup. If you add in that they are unrested, teams are 4-22 SU (-12.0 ppg) and 6-20 ATS. Or, if you add in that they lost the last game at home, teams are 5-37 SU and 8-33-1 ATS. All the travel is exhausting, especially at this point in the season, and having just one home game is a kind of tease for a team, as it can be tiring to try to catch up with family and then have to go straight out on the road again. This will be the Bobcats fifth game in eight days, and in this period they have logged 3500 miles of travel. Since the 2010 season, the Bobcats are 7-23 SU (-12.9 ppg) and 12-17-1 ATS when playing their fifth game in eight days.
The Bobcats battled hard against the Lakers last night, at one point holding a twenty point lead. Teams playing as a road dog on no rest after a game in which they held a 15+ point lead are 16-31-1 ATS. I can?t think of any particular reason that they might be inspired to play well tonight.
The Bobcats are 2-17 SU (-15.7 ppg) and 6-13 ATS since last season when playing as a road dog on no rest after a loss. The Sixers are fighting to stay relevant and sneak into the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. This may be a good game for Turner to break out of his shooting slump, as the Bobcats are seventh to last in the league in FGP allowed on the road.
Nuggets
Since the 2004 season, teams playing on the road as a favorite between 4 and 10 points (average line -6.5) are 21-1 SU (+11.6 ppg) and 20-2 ATS if they are coming off of four games where the total points scored were equal or greater than 205 points, when their opponent is coming off a home game. Since the 2005 season, teams playing as a favorite after a 20+ point win are 18-3 SU (+15.2 ppg) and ATS when their opponent is coming off a game where the total points scored was more than 225 points and they are unrested. In other words, the Nuggets are probably going to drop a lot of points on the Cavaliers tonight, who have been giving up 107.6 points in their last five games overall. The Cavs have had a nice little run, but their last two games have been against bottom feeders. It actually plays to the Nuggets favor that they beat the Thunder, because they will not be looking past this game.
The Nuggets are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine as a road favorite on the first game of a road trip. Since the calendar year 2011, the Nuggets are 15-4 SU (+9.2) and 14-4 ATS following a game in which they scored 15+ points more than expected.
The Nuggets dominated the Cavaliers in three important statistical categories in their first meeting this season - points in the paint, rebounds, and free throw attempts. When teams win these three categories, they are 153-68 ATS this season, winning by an average margin of 9 ppg. The Nuggets should be able to dominate these areas again tonight.
The Cavaliers have not won 4 straight games since the King left town...poor Cleveland. And now the *Browns* just won the superbowl...
Sixers -8.5
Nuggets -5.5 x2
Good luck...
OU: 66-59-2 (-0.2)
ML dogs: 5-8 (+3.6)
Sixers
The Sixers are coming off a home loss to the Pacers. Teams playing at home as a favorite of three or more (average line -7.6) are 89-17 (+11.7 ppg) and 68-37 ATS when coming off a home loss against opponents who are also coming off a home loss when they are more rested than their opponent. Teams playing as a home favorite after a double digit home loss in which they were favored are 41-21 ATS when they are playing on two days rest since the 2005 season.
The Sixers have been playing great defense at home, giving up only 78.3 ppg in their last 4, and holding these opponents to 40% or less from the field. Since the 2010 season, the Bobcats are 3-46 SU (-17.2) and 8-39 ATS when their opponent holds them under 40% from the field. They have been averaging just 42% on the road this season. The Sixers are 17-6 ATS this season when they hold their opponent under 45%, and they should be up to the task tonight. Teams coming off of two games where they held their opponent to under 40% are 25-2 SU (+14.2 ppg) and 18-5-4 ATS (average line -7.8) when playing at home as a favorite after losing their last game since the 2007 season.
The Bobcats have had a trying schedule recently. Teams that are coming off an isolated home game after an at least five game road trip are 12-68 SU (-11.4 ppg) and 21-58-1 ATS since the 2004 season when playing on the road as a dog in a conference matchup. If you add in that they are unrested, teams are 4-22 SU (-12.0 ppg) and 6-20 ATS. Or, if you add in that they lost the last game at home, teams are 5-37 SU and 8-33-1 ATS. All the travel is exhausting, especially at this point in the season, and having just one home game is a kind of tease for a team, as it can be tiring to try to catch up with family and then have to go straight out on the road again. This will be the Bobcats fifth game in eight days, and in this period they have logged 3500 miles of travel. Since the 2010 season, the Bobcats are 7-23 SU (-12.9 ppg) and 12-17-1 ATS when playing their fifth game in eight days.
The Bobcats battled hard against the Lakers last night, at one point holding a twenty point lead. Teams playing as a road dog on no rest after a game in which they held a 15+ point lead are 16-31-1 ATS. I can?t think of any particular reason that they might be inspired to play well tonight.
The Bobcats are 2-17 SU (-15.7 ppg) and 6-13 ATS since last season when playing as a road dog on no rest after a loss. The Sixers are fighting to stay relevant and sneak into the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. This may be a good game for Turner to break out of his shooting slump, as the Bobcats are seventh to last in the league in FGP allowed on the road.
Nuggets
Since the 2004 season, teams playing on the road as a favorite between 4 and 10 points (average line -6.5) are 21-1 SU (+11.6 ppg) and 20-2 ATS if they are coming off of four games where the total points scored were equal or greater than 205 points, when their opponent is coming off a home game. Since the 2005 season, teams playing as a favorite after a 20+ point win are 18-3 SU (+15.2 ppg) and ATS when their opponent is coming off a game where the total points scored was more than 225 points and they are unrested. In other words, the Nuggets are probably going to drop a lot of points on the Cavaliers tonight, who have been giving up 107.6 points in their last five games overall. The Cavs have had a nice little run, but their last two games have been against bottom feeders. It actually plays to the Nuggets favor that they beat the Thunder, because they will not be looking past this game.
The Nuggets are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine as a road favorite on the first game of a road trip. Since the calendar year 2011, the Nuggets are 15-4 SU (+9.2) and 14-4 ATS following a game in which they scored 15+ points more than expected.
The Nuggets dominated the Cavaliers in three important statistical categories in their first meeting this season - points in the paint, rebounds, and free throw attempts. When teams win these three categories, they are 153-68 ATS this season, winning by an average margin of 9 ppg. The Nuggets should be able to dominate these areas again tonight.
The Cavaliers have not won 4 straight games since the King left town...poor Cleveland. And now the *Browns* just won the superbowl...
Sixers -8.5
Nuggets -5.5 x2
Good luck...
