Saturday

Happy Hippo

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Mar 2, 2006
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ATS: 142-103-7 (+44.7)
OU: 72-62-2 (+2.5)
ML dogs: 5-10 (+1.6)


Warriors

The Sixers are a train wreck right now. At this point in the season, mentality and drive are super important. Following Doug Collins? press conference earlier this week after they got schlapped by the Magic at home, the Sixers delivered another lackluster performance. A sign that you are not playing hard and smart is when you let a player get 23 rebounds on you, 8 of which were offensive, and he gets a triple double, with rebounds, points, and blocks. They are just not playing hard.

There is a major disconnect between coach and players. The players expressed indifference to Collins? rant on their ineptitude. ?You don't want to put too much into it,? Spencer Hawes said. ?Some of that is Doug being Doug, but he had some points...? Evan Turner: ?It is whatever. It is people's opinion. I didn't read too much into it. I don't think my teammates did either. We understood what occurred, what went on during that game and that's it. When it rains it pours.?

Well, that is partly true - when it rains, sometimes it does pour, if you are not resilient. The Warriors are a resilient team, and they will be the aggressor tonight. In their last nine, the Warriors are 6-3 SU and 9-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they scored less points than expected (and in these game they were an average dog of 7.3, showing their ability to really bounce back and put together a good performance after a bad offensive game). T

The Sixers are just bad. They are not going to magically get good overnight. The Warriors recently have beat the teams they are supposed to beat. They are 7-0 SU (+10.7) and 6-1 ATS against teams with a losing record under 40% in their last seven. In fact, they were in nearly an identical situation rest and travel wise a couple weeks ago when they played the Cavaliers and beat them. The Warriors have a statistical edge in almost every category, especially offensively, and the Sixers have struggled against good offensive teams. But most importantly, the Warriors have a mentally superior team, and they need this game to stay apace of their playoff foes. The Sixers just need a makeover.

The Warriors should end their road trip with a win tonight.


Warriors +1


Good luck...
 
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ldabdou

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Sixers seemed to play hard against the Bulls the other night they just seem to be missing a big play maker. Their D doesn't seem to be very good. Warriors looked tired. Curry has logged a lot of minutes. Liked sixers @ first glance. May stay out. Could see an over here. Great write as always! GL!
 

DZ

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Hippo, great write-up. What are your thoughts about the Warriors playing their fourth game in five nights on the road? To me, that is the clear reason why this line isn't higher in the Warriors' favor. I agree, Philly is a mess and has given up on Collins. Do you have any trends on road teams in this 4 games in 5 nights situation?
 

yanno

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Since the 2005 season, teams playing on no rest in a non-conference game are 52-32-1 ATS when playing in their last road game on an at least 5 game road trip.

Hmmmm. So much for the assumption aka supposition of so many bettors that such teams are looking to get the game over and get home. Also known as "their minds are already on..." (fill in the blank with the airplane, home cooking, their own bed, their girlfriend, local strip club, whatever).

At least I think this shoots down that simplistic handicapping angle. :0008
 

PanamaCityKing

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Good luck tonight HH, my overall numbers say GST is the play, but I have a few things keeping me off, nothing to do with the road trip or lack of rest.

Good luck & hope you cash!

:0074
 

ivabign

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Hang in there Hippo - Philly had to come to life sometime - they were recently considered a playoff team - I would definitely see them as a go against tomorrow vs the Wiz - another team that needs to win a game - they were playing well and have lost some games that maybe they could have won....

Also I like Sacramento vs Charlotte up to 10 points... (early line is 7.5 - god, that will be easy money)

Go get `em tomorrow!
 

HighFlyingKilla

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Looking to ride GS when they get home.

Should be motivated and have good line value after all the losses.
 

Happy Hippo

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Sorry - was not around last night to respond. Thanks for all the comments. ldabdou, sounds like you nailed the game.

For informational purposes, there is no correlation between teams not covering spreads when it is their last game on the road on a long road trip (4 or more games), and there is no correlation between teams not covering spreads when they are playing their fourth in five days. Also, no correlation when these two factors are added together.

Now, if you add in some other factors, these trends can certainly show us something about a team's mindset, but those factors alone are a 50-50 proposition (based on all games played since 1996). So overall, I think Yanno is correct in saying that is a false assumption.

Really wish I had seen all the comments, and been able to watch the game. After the second quarter rally, I may have bought out at halftime - that was not a good sign, and it seemed that indeed the Warriors were a bit faded. The line was a bit fishy, and that should have been enough to steer me off.

Going to plow through a few more days, but if I keep losing, will have to reconsider my strategy and may cash it in for the year. I am pretty pleased with what I have accomplished thus far. Hopefully, I can turn it around. Thanks for all the support!

ivabign - the Kings do look good at a glance, although there can be some adjustment time with teams coming off a road trip. But... it is the Bobcats.



Great hit grindstone!!



Cheers to all
 

margwellus

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just goes to show that even with great "analysis" and sound logic, that stats and logic don't always hold form. Tough week Hippo, hang in there, as I know you'll bounce back strong. The Warriors felt like a tad of a homer play (I bit) and ignoring the fact that they played 4 in 5 nights and that the Sixers are, well.. the Sixers...Some good games on the board tonite....go get 'em! :0008
 

Happy Hippo

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Going to take some time off from posting/betting. It's time.

Good luck everyone.
 

PanamaCityKing

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Going to take some time off from posting/betting. It's time.

Good luck everyone.

Hope you still share insight...maybe be back at it in a few days.

If not, great year.

Honestly I get ALOT of info and the individual bettors the books fear are the selective ones with discipline who know when to pound a game or when to leave the table.

Very few know when to pound it and fewer still know when to take a break & count their $.

Hats off to ya!
 
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