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Warriors-Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have come out of the gates looking discombobulated and out of synch as a team. They have not managed to cover a spread yet this season, which shows how they have failed to live up to their potential. They are in desperate need of a good solid win, and tonight they should be able to deliver just that.
The Grizzlies are coming off a loss to the Pelicans, and since the 2000 season, teams playing as a favorite when they are coming off a double digit loss as a favorite, are 20-11 ATS (64.5%) when playing against a team coming off a loss where they covered the spread and are playing on no rest. When a dog loses but covers a spread, it shows that they played hard until the very end of the game, and this can affect their performance in the next game, as there is a 2.4% drop off in next game cover rate for these teams over the last five seasons (compared to teams that just lose as a dog).
The Warriors certainly played tough in their game last night, holding the Spurs to just 12 points in the fourth quarter to rally, but came up just short. This was an emotional game for the Warriors, as they were trying to avenge their playoff exit loss to the Spurs. Over the last five seasons, after a game against a playoff opponent from the season before, on the next night teams struggle and are just 58-93-5 ATS (38.4%).
This is also the last night on their four game road trip, and the lure of home and rest may be too much for a young team to overcome tonight, against another tough physical opponent that is hungry for a big win. Teams playing in their fourth game on a road trip on no rest, when they have at least two days rest upcoming are 21-34-1 ATS (38.2%) since the 2005 season. Teams playing on no rest in their fourth game in six days on at least a four game road trip as a road dog, when they are coming off a loss where they covered the spread are 16-29 ATS (35.6%) over the last ten seasons. Two of the Warriors starters are in the top six in total distance traveled of all NBA players so far this season, and while their style is exciting and fun to watch, it can also be wearing on players, especially when they are asked to pick up more of the load when another starter is out.
The Warriors have not beat the Grizzlies since November 2010, and since then the Grizzlies have won nine straight against them. It is a total conflict of styles, and what the ailing Grizzlies need right now is to beat a quality opponent that is not at full throttle, and that is exactly what the Warriors present tonight. The Grizzlies should be the more motivated team, coming off a home loss as a favorite, while the Warriors have no reason to hang their head on a road trip where they already won two games, and hung tough with the Spurs last night. What they can be thinking about is their own homes and wives and lives that are awaiting them after the game, and how nice it will be to have a couple days off after a road trip where they have logged over 6000 miles of travel.
