SB OT????

[Englishman]

Guys:

I just noticed that OT being played is -900 no, +600 yes.

Unless I'm mistaken or just senile, there has never been an OT in the SB. since this will be the 39th SB, this represents great value, right?

So: no OT at -900 is the pick?

Comments?

 

[AR182]

since you asked...

i would never lay -900 on anything.....

if anything i would put a small amount on yes...

 

[AnkAnk]

I agree with AR182 about not laying -900 on a prop bet BUT if I was going to put money on the prop - I would bet NO. I'm not sure if this is even possible but I would parlay it with "The Game will not be decided by exactly three points"

I'm not even sure if that prop is available - I know that prop has been available in the past. But I do see value in putting those two props together (if possible)

Good luck!

 

[Blitz]

2 of the last 3 super bowls came close to going to OT, both won by NE...

 

[Englishman]

AnkAnk - the prop bet about the game being decided by exactly three points is available at betwwts. They most certainly would not let you parlay with my OT bet since the success of one part of the parlay is dependent on the other.

I must say though, I'm really looking at laying -900, thanks for everyone's thoughts.

 

[GM]

There were 256 regular season games this season, and by my quick (and unofficial) count 11 of them went to OT. Also one OT game out of the 10 played thus far in the playoffs (NYJ/SD). I really have no idea if that # of OT contests for a season is high, low or about the norm, I don't have that data. So I'll assume it's somewhat normal.

So that's 12 games out of 266, or about 4.5% of the time. Factor in a higher percentage of games in the regular season which could be expected to be mismatches (as there is a wider gap between the best and worst teams in the regular season than in the playoffs), and maybe you could expect any given playoff game to go to OT about 7 or 8% of the time.

-900 actually looks about right to me. In other words, I would not risk it. In fact, if you were a believer in the "their due" line of thinking, you could make an argument that we are long overdue for a Superbowl OT game. Also keep in mind with the 2-point conversion ties are much more likely than in the past, which may account for part of the reason why there were no OT SB games in the early years.