Outright plays (2 units):
D.A. Weibring to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Also like the odds for Morgan (20/1 Paddy Power) and Lietzke (28/1 SkyBet), but have narrowed the list down to three and first on the list is the Texas resident, Weibring. He didn't play in last year's debut on this course, but he will have played it before this week and his best finish of his last season on the PGA Tour was in the Texas Open where he record a top-25 finish. He has become one of the leading players on Tour with seven top-10 finishes, including one win, in his last ten starts and doesn't have the pressure of the Charles Schwab Cup race or other season titles that will be decided in these next two weeks.
Larry Nelson to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Nelson is also outside the running for the season titles, but it would have been different had he converted at least one of his four runners-up positions into wins this year. He has won once though - last month's Constellation Energy Classic - and has continued his excellent form recently with three top-3 finishes in his last four events. His record in this event is also impressive with finishes of 4th, 2nd and then 1st in the last three years that this event was held at The Dominion. He was rusty after a four-week layoff last year with his back, so didn't play well on this course, but that should be corrected this week.
Des Smyth to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, William Hill and SIA
Smyth was not eligible to play last year and he missed his last cut, but that was in the Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour. On this Tour, he has finished in the top-15 in every start in the last three months, including 4th last time out. With this consistency and a top-10 finish in his previous Texas event (2003 Kinko's Classic of Austin), this looks a decent price even if just for a top-4 finish.
D.A. Weibring to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Also like the odds for Morgan (20/1 Paddy Power) and Lietzke (28/1 SkyBet), but have narrowed the list down to three and first on the list is the Texas resident, Weibring. He didn't play in last year's debut on this course, but he will have played it before this week and his best finish of his last season on the PGA Tour was in the Texas Open where he record a top-25 finish. He has become one of the leading players on Tour with seven top-10 finishes, including one win, in his last ten starts and doesn't have the pressure of the Charles Schwab Cup race or other season titles that will be decided in these next two weeks.
Larry Nelson to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Nelson is also outside the running for the season titles, but it would have been different had he converted at least one of his four runners-up positions into wins this year. He has won once though - last month's Constellation Energy Classic - and has continued his excellent form recently with three top-3 finishes in his last four events. His record in this event is also impressive with finishes of 4th, 2nd and then 1st in the last three years that this event was held at The Dominion. He was rusty after a four-week layoff last year with his back, so didn't play well on this course, but that should be corrected this week.
Des Smyth to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, William Hill and SIA
Smyth was not eligible to play last year and he missed his last cut, but that was in the Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour. On this Tour, he has finished in the top-15 in every start in the last three months, including 4th last time out. With this consistency and a top-10 finish in his previous Texas event (2003 Kinko's Classic of Austin), this looks a decent price even if just for a top-4 finish.
--so will play 2.
