SBC Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (2pts):

Gil Morgan to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Some outlier prices from BetInternet this week, so adding an extra outright play. Just one in the top-4 would be enough to ensure a profit. A good chance of one from Morgan whose worst finish in the last five months (15 starts) is 23rd. He has been easily inside that mark in the last two years here and more commonly available at half these odds.

Jim Thorpe to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Same story here, though Thorpe is nowhere near as consistent. However, he is well-known as a late-season player and with three top-5 finishes in his last four starts, this seems to be holding true again. So in good form and with a good history around Oak Hills, he is another who widely available at half these odds.

Wayne Levi to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
The in-form player on Tour. Levi looked like he might add a second title in as many weeks last weeks, but faded in the last round to finish 3rd. The likelihood of fatigue is a good reason to avoid him this week, but that does not set in when you're playing this well and this is a price that cannot be ignored. He has finished in the top-3 in his last two Texas events and is certainly playing well enough to extend that streak.

Doug Tewell to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Tewell was the in-form player on Tour until Levi took over that mantle in the last two weeks and it looked as though he would be a player to void this week after two poor opening rounds at Augusta Pines. However a closing 64 is a pretty good indicator that he has got his game back and any repeat of that or his previous form could see him life his 2nd SBC Championship title.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (2pts):

Morris Hatalsky to beat Bruce Lietzke -114 @ Expekt
Side with Hatalsky a lot in matchups as he is such a consistent player and that is not the case with Lietzke whose best finish in the last two months has been 23rd; Hatalsky has finished outside that mark only once since June. So with an excellent record in Texas - 7th, 3rd and 5th in his last three starts in this State - I'll side with him again.

Peter Jacobson to beat Tom Kite -118 @ Centrebet
Finally opposing Kite after backing him in the outrights for so long. He has played in the last six straight Champions Tour events and he is clearly not at the same level of form that he was in the summer. With just one more event to be played after this one, this should be week that he feels the fatigue. But even if not, Jake is still the better player on any given week.
(also available at Stan James and Expekt)

May have some more plays if Five Dimes release some lines.
 

Stanley

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Further matchup plays (2pts):

Doug Tewell to beat Bob Gilder -105 @ Five Dimes
Will back the outright selection against Gilder most weeks and will do so for this event, despite Gilder's record on this course. Tewell has been playing extremely well and showed with a final round 64 on Sunday that he has not lost the form which has seen him finish ahead of Gilder in five of their last seven common events.

Craig Stadler to beat Hale Irwin +100 @ Five Dimes
I don't understand these odds. Stadler won on this course last year, while Irwin has finished 4th and 14th in the two years; Stadler has won three of his last four Champions Tour events, while Irwin last won in May. Irwin is a lot more competitive than he was 12 months ago when struggling with injury, but he should never be a favourite over Stadler.

Gil Morgan to beat Larry Nelson -105 @ Five Dimes
Nelson won last week, but he still does not warrant being favourite against Morgan this week. He hasn't shown the consistency that he had in the first few months of the season and that is a big reason why he trails Morgan 6-13-1 h2h in 2004 and 3-7-0 in their last ten common events. Morgan hasn't finished outside the top-25 in any event in over five months; Nelson has done so in three of his last five starts.
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-4; -8.00pts

Morgan 25th
Thorpe 17th
Levi 12th
Tewell 17th

Not exactly a consistent performance. Morgan shot 62 in the 2nd round after opening with 77; Thorpe had rounds of 67 and 66 spoiled by a 2nd round 76; Levi finished three shots out of a place win despite an opening 73, which leaves only Tewell who was consistently average. Very strange week.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-3-1; -4.46pts

Hatalsky/Lietzke WON by 3
Jacobsen/Kite LOST by 8
Tewell/Gilder TIED (Push)
Stadler/Irwin LOST by 1
Morgan/Nelson LOST by 4

Just a very poor event!

Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 17-65; +100.42pts
Matchups: 59-53; -10.60pts
 
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