SBC Open

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ochoa 10/1 E/W @ Skybet

don't venture out in these short ones often but Ochoa getting better each year--cashing top 5's about 48% of events last year-will take her at 8/1 or more every time with Sorenstam out--been in competition already with world cup where she finished 2nd to Miyazato in indv scoring.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple of 72 hole matches @ Expekt
both -115
Kung over Rosales
Kane over Daniels

Event played@ Hawaii and as with the men either love or hate the grainy greens here and both plays on that presumption.

Rosales not much temperment when things don't go right and looks like this isn't to her liking with a WD and 2 MC in 4 events on the Island.
Kane quite the reversal with a 1st 2nd 10th and 21st in 4tries.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Grace Park to win 8/1 @ William Hill
The first event of the year for virtually all of this field and a new course does not generally augur well for the favourite, but Park does have the advantage of local knowledge over her rivals as played junior golf on Oahu as a teenager. And with three top-15 finishes in four starts in Hawaii, she deserves the short price. Rather too many runners-up finishes is a worry, but with Sorenstam absent, this looks a very good opportunity to start the year on a high.

Michelle Wie to win 25/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
Another with a distinct local advantage. Wie may not know the Arnold Palmer-designed course as well as Waialae, but she has played this course a few times before this week and has been practising hard for this event. The wrist injury that caused her to pull out of the Hawaii Pearl Open three weeks ago has now completely healed and it is hard to imagine that she will be available at such high odds in a field without Sorenstam once the season gets underway.

Carin Koch to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
A 6th place finish in her last event in Hawaii and a spate of top-10 finishes at the end of last year are good omens for Koch this week. While the Swedish team did disappoint in the World Cup two weeks ago, this is a very different event and if she can show any of her previous form, these will look very long odds.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Lorie Kane to beat Beth Daniel -114 @ Expekt
Kane finished 2004 in better form and showed in South Africa that she had begun the new year in the same vein. The Canadian pairing had been the 1st round leaders and eventually finished 6th. A good exercise in sharpening the game for the new season, Kane should particularly be looking forward to a return to Hawaii where she has finished 1st and 2nd (to a playoff with Annika Sorenstam) in her last two attempts at the Takefuji Classic.
(also available at SkyBet)

Carin Koch to beat Sophie Gustafson -120 @ SkyBet [4.5pts]
Easy to side with the outright selection who has a 16-3-1 h2h record against her compatriot in 2004 and who defeated her by 12 shots in a single round in South Africa. Gustafson ended 2004 in good form, as did Koch, but was the weak link in South Africa and should struggle to again match her partner in Hawaii where she cannot match her top-10 finish last time.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding out right to place @ Cbet
Jeong Jang 16.5/1

one 2nd rd match
Stanford -115 over Bowie @ 5dimes

Huge blunder on 72 hole wagers and unless winds turn to south (not in forcast) will be lucky to split.Saw where they are one of 2 courses in U.S. to have new grass on greens (Paspalum) which has no grain,taking away the island teeth and premise of 72 hole match selections--what I get for not viewing beards who played here recently--oh well
--giving Jang shot at these odds currently sitting 3 back of log jam for 2nd.Ranked 5th in scor ave in 04 in this field and 3rd on tour in birdies--couple with odds double her place break even rate of return ---forced to give her a look.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sheez don't know what it is bout last hole this year but Stanford tried to blow it yesterday with double on last hole--but manage to hang on by skin of teeth
Got quite a few today with wind to get up in 25MPH range
My fav
Koch -110 over Christina Kim -110 @ 5Dimes
Wind should cut through slim Koch like knife and Kim should be like blimp trying to hold in check-----
Seriously don't understand this line--Koch MUCH the best wind player and has taken 5 straight from Kim wirh 20 stroke adv in last rd in the 4 Kim made cut. Caution these that look too good have way of dumping and one drawback is Koch is can string some bogies if things go bad--very tempermental.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +0.94pts

Park 27th
Wie 2nd
Koch 8th

Good to earn a profit on the first regular Tour event of the season. Wie always had to much to do to catch Rosales so a runners-up spot was a good return and could have been even better if only Koch had birdied the par-5 last hole as she had done in the previous rounds. She didn't and she finished one shot out of the places at good odds.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-1-0; +2.79pts

Kane/Daniel LOST by 1
Koch/Gustafson WON by 21

A narrow loss and a resounding win, so overall a useful profit on the event. A good way to start the LPGA Tour season.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 2-3; +0.49pts
Matchups: 4-1; +11.79pts