Scarecrow & DJV

[NFLXTFAN]

I don't want to sound dumb, but, to Scarecrow. Could you please tell me about your post in the tread "team Cycle" Theory? You stated that a team that covers or loses ATS, by 10pts or more, 3 games in a row, go with or against them respectively. So are you saying that a team favored by 3 have to win or lose by 13pts? Or, just win or lose by 10pts?

Djv, also in this thread, you spoke about a couple of trends, but mentioned a third that you would have to look for because you didn't have it readily available. You wrote," There was another way to apply this and get 8 to 10 plays at about 80%. Sorry have to find it and read it." I was just wondering if you ever managed the time to look for it and tell what it was? Also, when you made the remark about a team that has played 3 div games in a row, then play a non-div game, go against them. Does it matter whether or not that team won or lost in those games? Maybe you have something to add to this.
Your replies are greatly appreciated. Thanks

[This message has been edited by NFLXTFAN (edited 11-16-2001).]

 

[NFLXTFAN]

Just trying to keep this fresh and near the top. Sorry.

 

[Scarecrow]

The win or loss must be by 10 points or more INCLUDING the spread. So using your example, a 3 point favorite must win by at least 13 or lose by at least 7 and a 3 point underdog must win by at least 7 or lose by at least 13. Hope this helps to clarify the situations that generate selections for this trend.

Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any databases that include this specific ATS margin win/loss data. Fiest's site had the data available last year under what they called "NFL Varience" logs. It has required me to maintain my own database to calculate these numbers.

 

[djv]

The three gmes can be W or L. The important thng is 3 div in a row. Now none div with another div up next. I hope I said it that way first time. This is correct if I did not Would you like them to win two or three. Yes However just be competive, not blow outs.
Another thing to watch for. This does not happen very often. Team Plays 4 even 5 div games in a row. Go aginst even if they do not have a div game up after the none div game. These are all just let down plays. The emotion level can not stay high. You may see one this week That is just alittle differant GBay played TBay. Then got high as heck to play Chigo. Now Atl and GBay -10.5. This one shows us GBay has short week to get ready play Det on Thursday. No way do I lay that many points. Atl plus 10.5 is way I will go. It may loose. But I believe the value is with Atl. Hope above helps.

 

[NFLXTFAN]

Scarecrow and Djv, I thank you both for responding to my message. I will keep an eye out for these trends for good. Thanks for clarifying. Good Luck today!!