Scottish Open

Stanley

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
11,801
26
0
Manchester, England
www.tour-tips.com
Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
A big price for a player who has won this event two years ago and finished in the top-10 in four of the last five years here (plus 14th last year). He may have suffered a final round collapse last week, but he had been the 1st round leader so he is in good form as he has been all season. He is still searching his first win of 2003, but with six top-4 finishes in fifteen starts, he has been getting very close.

Paul Casey to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Easybets
No such problems for Casey who has won twice this year already. Take out his missed cut in the U.S. Open on a course that did not suit his game and his worst finish since his opening event of the year has been 18th. He finished 11th last year and should surpass that mark on a course that rewards his length off the tee and excellent ball-striking.

Justin Rose to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
One of England's other young guns took the weekend off last week, but it was hardly surprising as he had missed three of his previous four cuts at The K Club. This week he returns to a course on he finished 5th last year (he had been 1st round leader and was never lower than 5th) so he will have higher expectations of himself this week. Having followed up his 5th place finish in the U.S. Open with 3rd place in the Open de France, his swing refinements from David Leadbetter have certainly paid dividends and he should go close to securing his first title of 2003.
 

crookycymru

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2002
809
0
0
44
Wales (United Kingdom)
Two early match ups I am playing.

Stephen Leaney to beat Peter Lonard at 10/11 with Stan James

Opposing a player who has played very well on the US Tour this season, and brought home some cash in his match up last week. However, he is more likely to use this event as a warm up for the Open, and unlike Leaney, who has played on the European Tour for a large part of the season.
Course form suggest Leaney holds a strong edge. A top ten finisher last year, is leagues above anything Lonard has ever been able to produce at Loch Lomond. In fact he has failed to make the cut in four of his six starts here.

John Bickerton to beat Gary Evans at 10/11 with Stan James

Bickerton has finished ahead of Evans in four of the past five Euro tour events, and I am willing to consider Evans top ten finish in last weeks European Open as a flash in the pan.
Gary Evans is another who does not like playing at Loch Lomond. He could only manage 32nd place last year, when he was easily in better form than he is now (he went on to finish in the top ten at the Open only a week later). Bickerton has been in contention here for each of the last two years, and as he is in much better form than Evans at the moment, it looks a good opportunity to oppose Gary Evans here.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 13, 1999
19,424
128
63
Bowling Green Ky
Nice find SS I rarely look Eoro odds but that one makes nice 2 man combo with Choi in U.S.

I see they they have several U.S. players entered. Considering the only 2 U.S. players with history there Daly and Mick have come in 3rd and 7th respectively in their only appearance maybe a couple of these other U.S. entries with no cource form warrant a peek in outrights?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Gadzooks 365 with place only option? Not too good of #'s but a start!!!!!
 
Last edited:

milpalm

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 12, 2002
226
0
0
48
Lillestrom, Norway
Casey at 25/1 and Rose at 33/1 for me as well. Both players are long off the tee and have solid GIR stats which I think will be important here.
 

crookycymru

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2002
809
0
0
44
Wales (United Kingdom)
Adding :

Bradley Dredge to beat Jarmo Sandelin at 8/11 with William Hill

I have to side with my fellow countryman here, despite the short price. Sandelin has hardly set the Euro tour alight this season, and is as inconsistent as ever. Given that his top ten finish at the K Club last week, was at a course where he always plays well, it is unlikely he can bring that form to Loch Lomond.
Dredge however, is one of the most improved players on the tour. He is only getting better, and while his previous performances at Loch Lomond are nothing to write home about, he is getting better there, and his top thirty finish last year bodes well.
 

Stanley

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
11,801
26
0
Manchester, England
www.tour-tips.com
Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Bradley Dredge to beat Jarmo Sandelin -139 @ William Hill
Dredge is by far the better player and quite a bit more consistent as well. He holds a 11-4-3 h2h lead over Sandelin in the past 12 months and has made the cut in the past two years here whereas Sandelin has not.

Niclas Fasth to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ Pinnacle
Expecting a decent week from Fasth. Not one for the outrights, but a consistent player nonetheless. He leads Leaney 4-0-0 h2h in European events over the past three months and there appear to be signs that Leaney's game is starting to show fatigue following his U.S. Open exploits. He has a very good links game, so he may well coast and concentrate on next week if he doesn't start this event too well.

Alastair Forsyth to beat Mathias Gronberg -118 @ Expekt
With two runners-up spots in the last three weeks, there is no doubting the Scot's current form. The first of those 2nd place finishes was at Gleneagles and he will be relishing the chance to feature in his home country again. His record on this course is not spectacular, but it is better than Gronberg who is dangerous opponent, but still misses too many cuts.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ BetandWin
Westwood finally achieved a top-10 finish last week and he had at least made his last three cuts and had won previously on that course, but it does not compare to Kjeldsen who finished 7th and 11th in the two weeks before winning the Diageo Championship at Gleneagles last month. Westwood did play well on this course in the 1990s, but he previous rediscoveries of form has proved to be very brief and this course will certainly test his ball-striking ability.
 

x2man

Registered User
Forum Member
May 19, 2002
2,441
24
38
Texas
Stanley, I joined a pool where u pick ten players, adding the money earnings for the tournament will decide the winner. With that said, what 10 players would u pick?
Thanks in advance.
 

sports student

Registered User
Forum Member
May 14, 2000
973
6
0
71
Sturgeon Bay WI USA
72 hole

Romero -105 over Olazabal (canbet)
Howell -110 over Evans (pinnacle)
Kjeldson -105 over Gronberg (5 dimes)
Lane -1/2 -120 over Gronberg (365)

have had an incredible run of good fortune on this tour lately both on listed plays and a few not listed. Just want to thank everyone who posts their plays as almost all my plays are based at least partially on something that is posted ahead of me, and of course thanks Stan for the stats and writeups.
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,190
113
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
OUTRIGHTS:

Barry Lane(66/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Despite a rich vein of form, the seasoned veteran still has yet to experience the thrills that only come from being in the cross hair on the back nine on Sunday. Now comes a course that has for him obvious if somewhat surprising appeal, and he also appears to compete well when his American and worldwide peers repeat their ritual of arriving on the scene.

Retief Goosen(16/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
(A) His 10th/4th/1st/14th place finishes here attest to the fact that a roomy, lush and immaculate course over rolling terain seems well suited to his game and temperament. I also think of him as respectable in foul conditions.
(B) He's done this sort of thing before, admittedly while in the best form of his career (winning here the week before The Open Championship in 2001, and winning at the BellSouth in 2002 (and finishing 3rd in 2003) the week before the Masters, so he is deserving of a look as a player not coasting through his preparations for one of the majors.
(C) Any win would be relished about now.
(D) He features prominently in the newspaper article appended below.

Ben Crane(80/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
There is nothing surprising about Americans faring well on this signature Weiskopf-Morrish design. With Crane, his lag putting throughout and passion down the stretch are hard to come by . . . While information is hard to come by, I believe his faith is a source of strength as he confronts a personal heartache involving a friend . . . It's not like he hasn't done this sort of thing before when he won at BellSouth this year, admittedly while being without an invitation to the Masters the next week . . . With a course that suits and a soul that really seems capable of taking flight amidst the Scottish trappings, I find the odds appealing.

NOTE: There are a couple of nameless Europeans (in addition to Lane) that I am eying as longshots to make a mark at Sandwich next week, and I gave full deliberations to wagering on them this week as well in case they pop early, but I decided against both of them because of their poor course form at Loch Lomond.


3 BALLS (Thursday) for 1* each @ Bet365:

Crane(+188) over Westwood/Howell
Mickelson(+138) over Montgomerie/Olazabal
Dredge(+125) over Gallacher/Woosnam

MATCHUPS:

Rollins(-105) over Olazabal (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

GL
---------- ---------- ----------


THE HERALD (Glasgow) (7/9/03):

Standing in the lee of Open champion Ernie Els you will find a diminutive Belgian, often puffing away on a cigarette. He is Jos Vanstiphout, the sports psychologist to some of the most successful golfers on tour - in last year's sudden-death finish at Muirfield he was actually advising not only the big South African but also Thomas Levet, from France.

Jos has few academic qualifications to his name but his list of clients speaks volumes of the faith placed in him. Yesterday at Loch Lomond he was at the side of Scotland's Raymond Russell; the former world No.1 and Ryder Cup vice-captain, Ian Woosnam, also uses him, as do the promising South African Charles Schwartzel and previous Scottish Open winners Peter O'Malley and Barry Lane.

So what, I enquired of Vanstiphout, does he do for all these players that coaches cannot achieve? "I make them aware of their abilities," he replied. "I boost their self-confidence."

Well, forgive me Jos, but was a guy like Els not always aware that he was pretty good? "Yes, of course, and I am not sure Ernie initially believed he required my services. In fact he fired me after five minutes. I guess he didn't like me telling him, as I have told others, that what he required was a kick up the butt. Anyway, he soon hired me again and it was tremendous to be in his corner at Muirfield."

Els himself admitted: "I was almost gone mentally before he showed up."

Vanstiphout, 52, has been in his present job for about eight years. In addition to his golfers he has also worked with snooker player Stephen Hendry and cricketer Andrew Flintoff.

"I get them to listen to tapes and CDs which help them to be confident, to be focused and to stay alert. Sometimes they fall asleep while they do so but that doesn't matter because deep relaxation is part of the process."

So who, I asked the man they all seem to trust, is in the right frame of mind to win at Loch Lomond this week? "Retief Goosen, who I was with when he won the US Open, is determined to get the Scottish title again. Ernie is in great shape and I fancy Justin Rose to do very well."

The most difficult golfer he tried to help was Ireland's Paul McGinley, he admitted. I wondered if he had ever offered his services to Colin Montgomerie? "No," he confessed, tongue in cheek, "he is too intelligent for me."

Not a man in need of a confidence boost is England's Ian Poulter, who sports the kind of coloured hairstyle favoured by Arsenal's Freddie Ljungberg. "Yeah, the streaks should be bright red by the time of the Open," he predicted. "Well, it makes people smile, which can't be a bad thing."

Poulter has already won the Welsh Open this season and a total of ?411,694. In last week's European Open he was forced to withdraw during the second round with a bad thumb.

"It is still not completely right and I am taking pain-killers and anti-inflammatories but you can't afford to miss a tournament like this.

"It is a course I like and have played quite nicely. Even so I have one awful memory: a couple of years ago I sat in the scorers' hut waiting to see if I was going to qualify for the Open. I was in until Soren Hansen holed a putt on the last which must have been more than 60 feet and I was out. You don't forget moments like that."

Stephen Leaney, one of the band rarely seen in daylight without sunglasses, was the runner-up in the US Open and is currently lying third in the Volvo Order of Merit. There have been those who have wondered whether his travels to and from America are affecting his form.

"Listen, if you are from Western Australia you have to travel - I am on the move for nine months every year. I like this course but would prefer if it was hard and bouncy to reduce the chance of it just becoming a putting competition."

In Ireland last week, his wife, Tracey, was hit on the head by a ball played by Darren Clarke. "She's fine now. I just wonder what the odds are against that happening."
 

Stanley

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
11,801
26
0
Manchester, England
www.tour-tips.com
Mid-point update:

Dredge/Sandelin Leads by 2
Fasth/Leaney All Square
Forsyth/Gronberg WON by 12
Kjeldsen/Westwood LOST by 5

Goosen withdrew
Casey 44th
Rose mc

Nothing much to cheer so far. Casey needed a good finish to prevent a sweep of outright selections missing the cut and the remaining matchups are close. Need some good 18-hole plays over the weekend to turn this into a profitable event.

3rd round play (1.5 units):

Peter Lonard to beat Phillip Price -108 @ Five Dimes
 

Stanley

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
11,801
26
0
Manchester, England
www.tour-tips.com
Lane retired after an opening 72.

4th round update: 0-2-0; -3.12 units

Clark/Howell LOST by 4
Colsaerts/Schwartzel LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +2.83 units

Dredge/Sandelin WON by 11
Fasth/Leaney WON by 2

18-holes: 0-2-1; -3.12 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Casey 10th

Loss on the event despite the matchups. Casey did have three good rounds this week, but his 74 on Friday took him right out of contention for a top-5 finish.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 33-33; -7.93 units
18-holes: 39-34; +6.80 units
Outrights: 7-40; -25.05 units
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top