Scottish Open

[Ian]

A very competitive event so stakes will be kept small
First choice is Parnevik - basically because I fancy him for next week and he always wins the week before I want to back him! 33-1 Victor Chandler
Thomas Levet is playing some of the best golf in Europe and the best golf of his life 80-1 Victor Chandler
If the winds blow I will kick myself for not backing Paul Lawrie having supported him the last few weeks 66-1 Surrey

 

[Clive]

Surrey suspended Lawrie for a while, but have now re-opened, Coral also 66/1.
Quite like him this week, but he's a bit difficult to predict, and, as you say, this is a even more competitive event than usual.

 

[Cartman88]

Ian,

I really like the look of the 3 players you mentioned this week, and I am throwing in Garcia as well (12-1 with Sportingodds). He seems to have really matured in the past 3 months, and is starting to play to his potential now.

As you say though it is a very open and competitive field so I won't be going overboard with my outlay.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Early play @ Greater Milwaukee open will transfer when thread is open.
Kelly -115 over Pavin @ WSEX
Home town boy and the better player.

I expect this line to be in -130's range by tommorow.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 07-10-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

The strongest event of the week by quite a margin. The defending champion, Ernie Els, may have withdrawn with a bad back, but that still leaves four of the top-10 in the world rankings competing at Loch Lomond this week. On many occasions the week before a major sees a poor field as the top players have their minds on other things, but not this week. "One of the five best courses in the world" is how Ernie Els describes this course and its greens have all been reconstructed to make that better putting surfaces.

Like every great course, each hole demands full attention and course management is paramount. There are rewards for attacking golf, but the penalties are just as severe. For the more conservative, the driving areas are fairly generous and a good all-round game is required for a good performance. This is a shot-maker's course on which the best players will come to the fore. It's five-year roll-call of winners reads: Thomas Bjorn, Tom Lehman, Lee Westwood, Colin Montgomerie and Ernie Els. With a sense of normality returning to the European Tour in the past fortnight, it is hard to see anyone less winning this week.

That is reflected in this week's rather short-priced selections: Sergio Garcia, Tom Lehman and Jesper Parnevik. Garcia is finally looking like his will realize his potential. Two wins in four events and looking the no.1 challenger to Tiger Woods. He hasn't played in Europe since the Spanish Open, but it was his form after that event that has caught all the attention. He finished 2nd on his last visit to Loch Lomond, so as long as the winds don't blow too strong, he does have a favorite's chance.

For Lehman, this will be a welcome return to a course on which he has prospered. A winner in 1997, as well as 9th in 1998 and 2nd in 2000 in his three visits makes very impressive reading. His form on the PGA Tour has been respectable with a 3rd place finish last month at the St Jude Classic, but the return to Britain and the prospect of winning this title and next week's for the second time should raise his game significantly.

The final pick could win this event at a canter or be heading for Lancashire at the weekend. Parnevik is that unpredictable - he hasn't played since the US Open, but he is presumably gearing himself up for for the next four weeks' golf which will include this event, the British Open and the Scandinavian Masters and will hopefully secure his place in the European Ryder Cup team by right. He has been in decent form this year, with a win at the Honda Classic and a top-10 at the St Jude Classic, and had a top-5 finish on this course two years ago. It may be the second week that the winner celebrates with a cigar!

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 11/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Tom Lehman to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or Sports.com
Jesper Parnevik to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

 

[simonpjc]

How is Norman favored in this matchup? Am I missing something?


RICHARD GREEN

CURRENT TOUR: European Tour

2001 Statistics


Stroke Average
70.21
5

Driving Distance (yards)
271.9
157

Longest Drive (yards)
335.0
73

Driving Accuracy (%)
80.6
2


Fairways per Round (FPR)
11.2
2

Greens In Regulation (%)
75.5
3

Greens Per Round (GPR)
13.6
3

Putts per GIR
1.802
95

Putts per Round
30.1
121

Putts per Hole
1.67
121

Sand Saves (% / Total Save Attempts)
70 / 65
26


Round 1 Average Strokes
70.14

Round 2 Average Strokes
70.86

Round 3 Average Strokes
70.17

Round 4 Average Strokes
69.58

GREG NORMAN:
Driving Distance 273.5 Tot. Dist. - 13,128 Tot. Drvs. - 48
Driving Accuracy Percentage 67.0% Fwys Hit - 225 Poss. Fwys - 336
Greens in Regulation Pct. 57.4% Greens Hit - 248 # Holes - 432
Putting Average 1.782 GIR Putts - 442 Greens Hit - 248
Eagles (Holes per) 432.0 # Holes - 432 # Eagles - 1
Birdie Average 2.92 # Birdies - 70 Tot. Rnds. - 24
Scoring Average 72.12 Tot. Strks - 1,741 Tot. Adj. - 10.170-
Sand Save Percentage 60.0% # Saves - 33 # Bunkers - 55
Total Driving 1,998 Total rank from stats 1 & 2
Money Leaders $184,613 138th - -
Par Breakers 16.4% #Bird/Eagl - 71 #Holes - 432
Putts Per Round 28.33 Tot. Putts - 680 Tot. Rnds. - 24

Scoring Avg (actual) 72.54 Tot. Strks - 1,741 Tot. Rnds. - 24
Scoring Avg Before Cut 73.13 Tot. Strks - 1,170 Tot. Rnds. - 16
Scoring Avg 3rd Rnd 71.50 Tot. Strks - 286 Tot. Rnds. - 4
Scoring Avg Final Rnd 71.25 Tot. Strks - 285 Tot. Rnds. - 4

 

[simonpjc]

PS;

7/12/01 2:00 AM EST

G.NORMAN (TOURN) -137
R.GREEN (TOURN) + 107

AT 5 DIMES

 

[AussieVamp2]

here's another question Stan, do single-figurish favorites place enough of the time to make it worth the each way part?

 

[Cartman88]

I have had a small wager on the Top Australasian group.

Michael Campbell 5-1 with NSW Tab
Richard Green 12-1 with NSW Tab

simonpjc,

I think that Richard Green +107 vs Greg Norman looks a very strong play. I have been impressed with Richard Green and I think he is capable of a good finish. I could not say the same for Greg Norman who seems to struggle now.

[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 07-11-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

I don't know AV. But I think the important thing is the odds that we would put on the player and the difference between that and the available odds. I would take Garcia at 6/1 this week, so 11/1 represents value for me.

If he wins, I make a profit of 6.875 units.
If he finishes 2nd-5th, I make a profit of 0.875 units.
Therefore I have to give Garcia at least a 32% chance of finishing in the top-5, which I do.

For the 32% chance, I simply assume a uniform probability distribution for Garcia finishing 1st-5th. Hence there is a 20% chance of returning 7.875 units and a 80% chance of returning 1.875 units if he finishes in the top-5. Expected return if he finishes in the top-5 is then 3.075 units. If the probability of Garcia finishing in the top-5 is greater than 32.5% (1/3.075), then I expect to make a profit on the play.

For players that I would give single-figure odds that seems a suitable percentage provided they are available at double-figure odds and there are five places available. The double-figure odds is quite arbirary but sets the floor at an estimated 35% probability of finishing in the top-5, while the five places is obviously essential.

Hope this answers your question, albeit from the perspective of my odds not the books'.

 

[Ian]

Alphabet offer every week an interesting market of who will be the 1st round leader, David Howell

has a tremendous 1st round scoring average here 68.2 over the last 5 years, combined with his excellent current form and a very early tee time 66-1 (1/4 5) seems a reasonable bet to small stakes

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Jesper Parnevik to beat Thomas Bjorn +100 @ Surrey
Outright pick and tipped to have a great week, Parnevik also figures heavily in the match bets. Bjorn has been improving of late and returns to the course as a former winner. Should finish in the top-20, but will take Parnevik at dog odds as I can't see him out of the top-20 either

Jesper Parnevik to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Strong opening round from Campbell last week, but he fell away thereafter and has not secured a top-10 finish since May. Too erratic at the moment and is opposed with Sweden's finest

Jesper Parnevik to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ BetInternet [2 units]
Westwood didn't even have one good round last week, but at least he made the cut for the first time in three events. He may have a good record on this course, but he also did at the K Club and it counted for little. One to oppose for the time being

Greg Chalmers to beat Richard Green -111 @ Ladbrokes
Battle of the Aussie lefties with the PGA Tour-based Chalmers getting the nod. On the course most relevant for this week, Chalmers missed the cut at Foto Island to weeks. He has also missed the cut i three of the last four years here. In good form otherwise, but does not look suited to this week and improved Chalmers should prevail

Nick Faldo to beat Greg Norman -111 @ UKBetting [3 units]
While Faldo does struggle on the PGA Tour, he has been playing much better in Europe - 3rd in the Volvo PGA Championship on his last visit - and has a very good record on the course, including a top-10 finish last year. I expect a good week from Faldo and a lack of competitiveness from Norman who hasn't finished in the top-25 of an event since the Bay Hill Invitational and lacks the desire that Faldo has retained

Nick Faldo to beat Dean Robertson -110 @ Surrey
A top-10 finish last week from Robertson, but he is still struggling with consistency. On a course on which he has only an average record, he is opposed with Faldo

Sergio Garcia to beat Colin Montgomerie -110 @ @ Surrey
The headline matchup of the week and in line with the outright selections, Garcia gets the nod. Monty may have a great record on this course, but last week's performance only confirmed that despite his victory in the Irish Open, he is still a long way from his best and the consistency he desires

 

[Stanley]

1st round play:

Richard Green to beat Greg Norman +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

 

[AussieVamp2]

Ok, although golf can't be a uniform distribution, got that nasty at the cut discontinuity

what the distribution is for finishing positions for single players, bloody good question

 

[Stanley]

The uniform probability distribution is only assumed for the first five places, not every place. These are the places at which the outright play is a winner.

It is only a simplification of course. Would be much more skewed towards 1st for Woods and 2nd for Mickelson and Love

 

[AussieVamp2]

Yeah, Mickelson is a uniform distribution. He uniformly cannot win!

 

[AussieVamp2]

and if too simple, that's a bad thing too (perhaps)

 

[Stanley]

Nothing wrong with simple

Parsimony is a target in all statistical models. Have to judge models by their results and not by their assumptions ...

 

[AussieVamp2]

Not in all, Stan, no, not necessarily.

 

[AussieVamp2]

the other thing being that a different underlying probability distribution does not make it more complex