Hoping it's a Brees :0074
I'm closing a 6pt 6 team teaser at a pick and a 4-Team Parlay with CAR, PIT, GB. Gotta stay with the FAV here even though I may be pressing my luck :0corn
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Se?or Cappers MNF 12/26 & Write-ups
- Thread starter Senor Capper
- Start date
Hoping it's a Brees :0074
I'm closing a 6pt 6 team teaser at a pick and a 4-Team Parlay with CAR, PIT, GB. Gotta stay with the FAV here even though I may be pressing my luck :0corn
NEW ORLEANS 30 - Atlanta 27
Those are the scores in the last 4 matches between these 2. Everyone remembers their 1st meeting this season, when the Falcons went for an ill-advised FD deep in their own territory in eventual OT loss.
Saints are amazing. On a 6-0 SU/ATS run, with Brees continuing his excellence, throwing for another 412 yds & 5 TDs in rout of Minny (36-12 FD edge). Now at 4,780 yds & 37/10.
Falcs' Ryan: 7 TDs last 2 wks, & that Atlanta "D" has held 7 of last 9 foes under 18 pts. Falcs are 1-11 ATS as Dec dogs off a SU win. But the Saints are 2-14 ATS as division HFs of 7+ pts.
Those are the scores in the last 4 matches between these 2. Everyone remembers their 1st meeting this season, when the Falcons went for an ill-advised FD deep in their own territory in eventual OT loss.
Saints are amazing. On a 6-0 SU/ATS run, with Brees continuing his excellence, throwing for another 412 yds & 5 TDs in rout of Minny (36-12 FD edge). Now at 4,780 yds & 37/10.
Falcs' Ryan: 7 TDs last 2 wks, & that Atlanta "D" has held 7 of last 9 foes under 18 pts. Falcs are 1-11 ATS as Dec dogs off a SU win. But the Saints are 2-14 ATS as division HFs of 7+ pts.
New Orleans has defeated Atlanta nine of 11 times during the Sean Payton era, but has gone just 6-5 ATS. The Saints nipped the Falcons, 26-23, in overtime in Week 10. The Falcons outgained the Saints and won time of possession, but a bonehead decision by Mike Smith to go for it on fourth-down on his own 29 in overtime proved costly. Both teams are off easy victories, but the Falcons are 3-6-1 ATS following a win although they have a few extra days rest having dispatched Jacksonville last Thursday. Drew Brees has fired 16 touchdown passes without an interception in his last five games. The Saints average 40 points at home, yielding just seven sacks and three interceptions in six games at the Superdome.
NEW ORLEANS 31-23.
The final game of the 2011 calendar will be a good one with two NFC South rivals facing off. The first meeting went to overtime with New Orleans winning after the controversial fourth down call from Mike Smith but Atlanta still has chance to pass the Saints. New Orleans is playing for records for Drew Brees but more importantly a top two seed in the NFC. After a disappointing start to the season this Atlanta team that many projected for a Super Bowl run may finally be on track. Granted it came against a losing team but
Thursday?s win over Jacksonville was the best performance of the season for the Falcons and the defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, allowing less than 17 points per game over the last nine games. Atlanta does only have one win over a team that would make the playoffs today however so there are some concerns with this team and QB Matt Ryan has had several off games. New Orleans has won six in a row but the defense has very poor numbers against the pass. New Orleans is 6-0 at home however with dominant numbers and this has been arguably the toughest place to play in the league in recent years. New Orleans looks a bit overvalued given the rivalry match here and the Falcons have a lot on the line this week. Since 1980 Atlanta is 24-6 ATS playing at New Orleans including ATS wins the last two years so taking the points certainly makes since in this huge game. Having extra time to prepare certainly should help the cause for the Falcons, a team that is picking up some momentum.
SAINTS BY 3
Game Breakdown:
These teams have played three straightgames decided by a field goal, including Atlanta?s
overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that they?re finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102.3 YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta?s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has surpassed 300 yards in his last three games against the Falcons
ATLANTA 21
NEW ORLEANS 28
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Betting System:
Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, top level team,winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of season. (59-23 Over)
Play = Over the totalSeries history ? Last 5 seasons:
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TRENDS:
NEW ORLEANS is 6-5 ATS (9-2 SU) vs. ATLANTA (2-3 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in home lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the L3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 23-10 ATS after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS in dome games over the L3 seasons.
These teams have played three straightgames decided by a field goal, including Atlanta?s
overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that they?re finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102.3 YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta?s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has surpassed 300 yards in his last three games against the Falcons
ATLANTA 21
NEW ORLEANS 28
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Betting System:
Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, top level team,winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of season. (59-23 Over)
Play = Over the totalSeries history ? Last 5 seasons:
============
TRENDS:
NEW ORLEANS is 6-5 ATS (9-2 SU) vs. ATLANTA (2-3 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in home lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the L3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 23-10 ATS after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS in dome games over the L3 seasons.
Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, Louisiana
Drew Brees was simply brilliant last week in a five-touchdown, 412-yard performance against the Vikings. The Saints have perhaps the most prolific offense in football, thanks in part to the many weapons at Brees' disposal, including tight end Jimmy Graham, who has quickly emerged as one of the best at the position. Meanwhile the Falcons, who are having a solid season so far, look to punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win. They have a strong defense, but it may not be enough to keep the Saints in check. In addition, New Orleans is especially tough at home and is 6-0 ATS in home games thus far this season.
New Orleans Saints -6.5
Saturday, December 24, 2011
LOSSAH Denver at Buffalo Denver Broncos -3
WINNAH Arizona at Cincinnati Cincinnati Bengals -4
OUTRIGHT WINNAH Minnesota at Washington Minnesota Vikings +6?
HUGE WINNAH Tampa Bay at Carolina Carolina Panthers -7?
LOSSAH Cleveland at Baltimore Baltimore Ravens -13
LOSSAH Jacksonville at Tennessee Tennessee Titans -7?
WINNAH Oakland at Kansas City Oakland Raiders +2?
WINNAH Miami at New England New England Patriots -9?
OUTRIGHT WINNAH NY Giants at NY Jets New York Giants +3
WINNAH St. Louis at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Steelers -16
HUGE LOSSAHS San Diego at Detroit San Diego Chargers +2?
PUSH San Francisco at Seattle San Francisco 49ers -2
OUTRIGHT WINNAH Philadelphia at Dallas Philadelphia Eagles +2
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Sunday, December 25, 2011
WINNAH Chicago at Green Bay Green Bay Packers -13 ***
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Monday, December 26, 2011
PENDING Atlanta at New Orleans New Orleans Saints -6?
*** BEST BET
2011Season ATS 120- 96- 7
BEST BETS 9-5 ATS
LOSSAH Denver at Buffalo Denver Broncos -3
WINNAH Arizona at Cincinnati Cincinnati Bengals -4
OUTRIGHT WINNAH Minnesota at Washington Minnesota Vikings +6?
HUGE WINNAH Tampa Bay at Carolina Carolina Panthers -7?
LOSSAH Cleveland at Baltimore Baltimore Ravens -13
LOSSAH Jacksonville at Tennessee Tennessee Titans -7?
WINNAH Oakland at Kansas City Oakland Raiders +2?
WINNAH Miami at New England New England Patriots -9?
OUTRIGHT WINNAH NY Giants at NY Jets New York Giants +3
WINNAH St. Louis at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Steelers -16
HUGE LOSSAHS San Diego at Detroit San Diego Chargers +2?
PUSH San Francisco at Seattle San Francisco 49ers -2
OUTRIGHT WINNAH Philadelphia at Dallas Philadelphia Eagles +2
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Sunday, December 25, 2011
WINNAH Chicago at Green Bay Green Bay Packers -13 ***
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Monday, December 26, 2011
PENDING Atlanta at New Orleans New Orleans Saints -6?
*** BEST BET
2011Season ATS 120- 96- 7
BEST BETS 9-5 ATS
NEW ORLEANS 37 - Atlanta 20
N.O. can clinch the NFC South. So this is a must-win situation for the Falcons if they are to have any hope (albeit slim, at best) of capturing the division. A loss would also be a negative for Atlanta?s wildcard position. Good luck to the Falcs on either count, as the Saints have been ?blessed? at home TY, going 6-0 vs. the spread and scoring 40 ppg. Even with the re-emergence of dynamic rookie WR Julio Jones, it will be difficult for Atlanta to keep up with Drew Brees (37 TDs, 11 ints.), on pace to smashing several revered records this season, and then, a few years later, on his way to Canton.
The last three games in this series have been decided by exactly 3 points. Not this time. :nono:
N.O. can clinch the NFC South. So this is a must-win situation for the Falcons if they are to have any hope (albeit slim, at best) of capturing the division. A loss would also be a negative for Atlanta?s wildcard position. Good luck to the Falcs on either count, as the Saints have been ?blessed? at home TY, going 6-0 vs. the spread and scoring 40 ppg. Even with the re-emergence of dynamic rookie WR Julio Jones, it will be difficult for Atlanta to keep up with Drew Brees (37 TDs, 11 ints.), on pace to smashing several revered records this season, and then, a few years later, on his way to Canton.
The last three games in this series have been decided by exactly 3 points. Not this time. :nono:
Now that all the presents have been opened, the eggnog drank and Santa has headed back to the North Pole, it?s on to Monday night football and finally a game worth tuning in. After watching the likes of Jacksonville and St. Louis go through the motions, and grimacing at the sight of a hobbled, one-legged, Ben Roethlisberger the last three Mondays, we finally have a matchup we can sink our teeth into this week? or do we? From a handicapping perspective, the Falcons have failed miserably under the Monday night lights when facing a winning foe, going 1-12 SU and ATS. On the flip side, the Saints are just 2-8 ATS on Mondays against .333 or greater division opposition. Add in New Orleans? ghastly 3-23 ATS record as division home chalk of more than 5 points and suddenly this is turning into an ugly-fest. Saving grace is Sean Payton?s 9-1 SU and ATS mark in games off back-to-back wins when taking on an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Atlanta quickly counters with a 7-0 ATS record in Last Road Games, to go with a sterling 16-2-1 ATS road dog log when playing with revenge (Falcons dropped a 26-23 decision at home in overtime to the Saints in which Atlanta won the stats by 123 yards) when taking on a foe off a non-division game. Like the gifts under the tree, there?s a lot to sort though, for sure. We?ll re-visit this after Santa?s helpers have arrived.
NEW ORLEANS OVER ATLANTA 6
What Bettors Need to Know
THE STORY: With Dan Marino's NFL single-season passing record squarely in his sights, Drew Brees will lead the New Orleans Saints into a critical divisional matchup with the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Brees needs 305 yards to surpass the mark of 5,084 set by Marino in 1984, a fairly decent proposition given the fact he has thrown for a league-record 11 300-yard games this season. Of more importance to both teams is how the game will impact both their postseason fates. Winners of six straight, New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South title with a victory and remains in contention for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Atlanta still has an outside shot at winning the division and holds a tiebreaker edge over Detroit for the No. 5 seed. The Falcons would clinch a playoff berth with a win Monday.
LINE: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet up to the key number of 7 before falling back to 6.5 at most books. If you shop hard, you can find 6 or 7 (even). The total opened at 53.5 and has fallen to 52.5 or 52.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5): Atlanta has won four of five since an overtime home loss to the Saints on Nov. 13. The Falcons have had ample time to prepare since thumping Jacksonville 41-14 on Dec. 15. QB Matt Ryan threw for a modest 224 yards and three TDs, including a pair to Roddy White, who had 10 receptions for 135 yards. It was the second 10-catch performance in four games for White, who has five TDs in that stretch. In an attempt to keep Brees off the field, Atlanta could feature a heavy dose of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 265 yards and two TDs in the last two visits to New Orleans.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-3): How good has Brees been? In his last five games, he has thrown for 1,776 yards with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw five TD passes in last week?s 42-20 rout at Minnesota and has completed 20-plus passes in a league-record 34 straight games. Top pick Mark Ingram (toe) sat out the last two games, but it hasn?t slowed New Orleans, which got 151 rushing yards from RBs Christopher Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles last week. Sproles has been a major weapon out of the backfield with 79 receptions, including at least five in 12 games. Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (87) and yards (1,171).
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Although the Saints have won nine of past 11 meetings overall, each of the last four with Atlanta have been decided by three points.
2. Brees has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 41 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47.
3. ?I hope he's at his highest level because if he plays any better I don't know if there's any way to stop him.? ? Falcons coach Mike Smith on Brees? recent play.
TRENDS:
- Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in Saints' last 16 vs. NFC South.
PREDICTION: Saints 34, Falcons 31
-- Atlanta keeps it close as usual, but Brees and the Saints? high-powered offense extend their win streak to seven.
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20 Dime winner going out on the New Orleans Saints as the favorite against the Atlanta Falcons. At the time I release this winner, the Saints are listed as the 6 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
20 Dime winner on the Falcons-Saints go to OVER the total at the Superdome tonight. The total is 52 1/2-points as I release this winner to you both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS # 1
The linemakers are giving you a big clue this Monday night by installing the Saints as the 6 1/2-point favorite. You see the last four series meetings between the Falcons and the Saints have all been decided by three-points. That includes the first meeting this year back on November 13th when the Saints kicked the game winning field goal in overtime at the Georgia Dome. That field goal was set up when Mike Smith went for it on 4th and 1 on his side of the field to no avail.
The track record in front of us, one would think grabbing the points is the way to go, but I don't feel that way at all. I think New Orleans is sitting on a blowout double-digit win tonight at home as they clinch the NFC South. The Saints are a perfect 6-0 both straight up and against the spread this year at home, as they bring a 40-ppg average in their home games into this Monday night finale.
The Monday night favorite has covered the last six Monday night games, and there is no reason at all to buck that trend tonight. Home field advantage too strong tonight for the visiting Falcons to overcome. Back the Saints to get the job done.
ANALYSIS # 2
As for the total, play the Over in tonight's meeting.
Give Atlanta credit, they have started to find a rhythm with their aerial attack, as Matt Ryan has been finding his receivers and the Falcons have scored 72-points in their last pair of games - both Overs.
As for New Orleans, you already heard me mention they average 40-points per game at home through six games this season, and they are coming off a 42-point outburst last week in Minnesota.
The last three series meetings contested at the Superdome between these rivals have all gone Over the total, and this one will as well.
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I know the first meeting between the teams stayed under the total, as Atlanta and New Orleans played an overtime game that saw 49-total points in a game the linemakers priced at 50-total points, but there is just too much offense on the field tonight for me to think this game will not go over the total.
Atlanta comes in having racked up 72-points in their last pair of games - both overs, while New Orleans just scored 42-points in a win at Minnesota their last time out, and are averaging a cool 40-points per game at home this season.
Drew Brees already has 37-touchdown passes on the year, and a few more seem very likely in this one. The last three times these teams have met in the Big Easy, all three have sailed over the posted total.
Expect scoring a-plenty tonight as Matt Ryan and Drew Brees put on a show for the Monday night viewing audience!
OVER
Atlanta comes in having racked up 72-points in their last pair of games - both overs, while New Orleans just scored 42-points in a win at Minnesota their last time out, and are averaging a cool 40-points per game at home this season.
Drew Brees already has 37-touchdown passes on the year, and a few more seem very likely in this one. The last three times these teams have met in the Big Easy, all three have sailed over the posted total.
Expect scoring a-plenty tonight as Matt Ryan and Drew Brees put on a show for the Monday night viewing audience!
OVER
Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)
Why Falcons cover: They?ve got more to play for than Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot. An upset win would secure a postseason berth for Atlanta. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in December. The trends in this NFC South rivalry point to Falcons: Atlanta 11-5 ATS in the last 16 vs. New Orleans, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, and the underdog has cashed five in a row.
Why Saints cover: They are the hottest team going right now, winning and covering six in a row and seven of their last eight, with five double-digit victories and a win and cover on road against Atlanta in overtime. Sean Payton?s troops have covered their last six at home and are on a 5-0 ATS run as favorites.
Total (53): The over is 6-2 in the Saints? last eight on Mondays. However, despite two of league?s best offenses (Saints 32.6 ppg, Falcons 24.4 ppg), several under trends are in play. The Falcons are on under runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 vs. winning teams. The Saints sport under streaks of 13-3 inside NFC South and 5-1 vs. winning teams.
Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3) - New Orleans
(even) won 26-23 at Atlanta in OT six weeks ago, when Falcons went for it on 4th-and-1 on own 29 in OT but failed, after rallying from 10 down in last 5:00 to tie game- it was fifth win in last six series meetings for NO. Atlanta won here 27-24 in OT LY, snapping 6-game skid in Superdome, with losses by 3-13-20-6-4-8 points (they beat Saints in Alamodome in ?05, after Hurricane Katrina). Falcons are 2-2 as underdog this year; this is first time they?re getting points since Week 7 win at Detroit. Teams that beat Saints this year scored 42-26-31 points. WhoDats won and covered their last six games- they?re 6-0 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 17-7-55-11-25-14 points (average score, 40-18).
Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total
(even) won 26-23 at Atlanta in OT six weeks ago, when Falcons went for it on 4th-and-1 on own 29 in OT but failed, after rallying from 10 down in last 5:00 to tie game- it was fifth win in last six series meetings for NO. Atlanta won here 27-24 in OT LY, snapping 6-game skid in Superdome, with losses by 3-13-20-6-4-8 points (they beat Saints in Alamodome in ?05, after Hurricane Katrina). Falcons are 2-2 as underdog this year; this is first time they?re getting points since Week 7 win at Detroit. Teams that beat Saints this year scored 42-26-31 points. WhoDats won and covered their last six games- they?re 6-0 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 17-7-55-11-25-14 points (average score, 40-18).
Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total
The final game of the 2011 calendar will be a good one with two NFC South rivals facing off. The first meeting went to overtime with New Orleans winning after the controversial fourth down call from Mike Smith but Atlanta still has a chance to pass the Saints. New Orleans is playing for records for Drew Brees but more importantly a top two seed in the NFC. After a disappointing start to the season this Atlanta team that many projected for a Super Bowl run may finally be on track. Granted it came against a losing team but Thursday?s win over Jacksonville was the best performance of the season for the Falcons and the defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, allowing less than 17 points per game over the last nine games.
Atlanta does only have one win over a team that would make the playoffs today however so there are some concerns with this team and QB Matt Ryan has had several off games. New Orleans has won six in a row but the defense has very poor numbers against the pass. New Orleans is 6-0 at home however with dominant numbers and this has been arguably the toughest place to play in the league in recent years. New Orleans looks a bit overvalued given the rivalry match here and the Falcons have a lot on the line this week. Since 1980 Atlanta is 24-6 ATS playing at New Orleans including ATS wins the last two years so taking the points certainly makes since in this huge game. Having extra time to prepare certainly should help the cause for the Falcons, a team that is picking up some momentum.
?TOP RATED TRENDS
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--NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in home lined games this season.
--NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 this season.
--NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the L3 seasons.
--ATLANTA is 23-10 ATS after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS in dome games over the L3 seasons.
?BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (ATLANTA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games.
(88-43 since 1983.) (67.2%, +40.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.8, Opponent 7.4 (Average first half point differential = +6.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (27-19).
