Se?or Capper's Semana 14

[Senor Capper]

Thursday

Played but failed to post (here) Broncos -10.0


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Sunday

-3.0 LOSERS !!

As explosive as Dallas can be on offense when all cylinders are clicking ? and with DeMarco Murray back in the backfield, there is more balance on offense ? the real problem has been a defense that underperforms expectations ? kind of like the whole team, really. :facepalm:

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-3.0 LOSERS!!

With this short number, without having the better offense, defense or special teams, the Panthers really should not be trusted to pull off an ?upset? against a 11-1 SU visitor that still has something to play for. Teams with 11-1 records find ways to win. Teams with 3-9 records find ways to lose. Atlanta?s coaching staff has a few extra days to sort out and clean up what they didn?t like from that first meeting.


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-6.0 WINNAH

Wow, the Lions, are an awesome team! Second-most O yards in the NFL! A QB with 400+ and 300+ PYs in his last two games! So many yards that they?ve lost four games in a row, are 4-8 SU and 4-8 ATS! Add that DT Ndamakong Suh, and his pals on the Lions? D line are so awesome that opposing Os have only scored 31 and 35 pts in regulation ? on Detroit?s home field ? in the last two games!
Considering their talent level, the Lions are the biggest chokers in the NFL. Oh, yes, Detroit also has lost 21 straight times at Lambeau, where GB has covered in 15 of its last 21. The Pack own six victories by more than a touchdown this season.


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+3.0OUTRIGHT WINNAH

What?s a dome team to do out on the cold, and possibly rainy road? Run, run, run the football. Buffalos' run D gives up 139 yards per game and has allowed the most rushing TDs in the NFL!! Add the fact that the Bills haven?t covered both ends of back-to-back games at home since 2007!


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+3.0 OUTRIGHT WINNAH

Da Bears won?t have Brian Urlacher in the heart of their D. The Vikes know if they can protect the ball and run it (which they do very well), they have a chance here. RB Peterson, who is working on his best-ever season, has a history of big power-rushing games against Chicago. Ball security will be a huge point of emphasis for QB Ponder. The Vikings? D will be physical and get to Cutler enough to steal a close one :mj08:


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-10.0 -120 WINNAH


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Monday Night

-3.0 & Over 50.0 WINNAH & WINNAH

A win here for the Pats and they cut the ?home field advantage? deficit to just one game behind the Texans. Tom Terrific weighs in with a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS mark under the Monday Night lights versus a less-than 1.000 opp, including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS when the Patriots own a .640 or higher win percentage.
No such luck for the Texans: NFL teams playing their 3rd straight road game, the last being a SU division win, are just 15-36 ATS since 1980.
And when a squad ventures into New England on a 3rd consective roadie, the Pats have gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS if they?re off a win of 6 or more points.
Add the Patsies are a perfect 20-0 SU during the second-half of the season since 2010, +51 in net turnovers (57-6) in those games.



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[BEACHBOY]

Where is the Houston pick

 

[Senor Capper]

Where is the Houston pick

actually currently leaning the other way

 

[hogman14]

actually currently leaning the other way

:toast:

Think this is a soft line. I won't say teams are going in opposite directions, but NE will be ready for this one. They always talk about how BS like One game at a time, all that happy hossshyt around NE here. All lies. They are great at disguising this. When a team is highly touted and it comes here as such...that's when they step up.

Recent examples: Denver playoffs last year, Indy this year.

Good matchup IMO for pats. Want to make the other team play left handed, so to speak. Strength is in stopping the run, by plugging the gap with Brandon Spikes who has emerged as one of the best run stoppers in the game. Devin McCourty's move to safety has strengthened the 2ndary, as well as Aqib Talib's addition, which has pushed their CBs down the depth chart to more of their "natural" position in regards to where they would be ranked. Alfonso Dennard is raw, very raw, but has shown flashes. He's deserving of the 2nd CB spot. Kyle Arrington moves to 3rd CB, and fits that position very well. A solid performer whose speed is underrated.

That said, this is not the '85 Bears. Nor do I want you to think that's how I feel. Still, if they can play average on defense, they should be alright.

Julian Edelman has been placed on IR. Look for Wes Welker to return punts, and increase his role on special teams. Would not be surprised to see Gronkowski give it a go, although there are many who speculate he will be held out until the playoffs.

The line opened at 5, and now sits at 3. This could easily be a AFC Championship Game preview. Also keep in mind, if the Patriots win out (I do note that they have SF next week), and Indy splits, the Pats will be the #1 seed. They will be hungry for this one. I jumped on some at 4, and am going to load up at 3.

Good luck.

PS. Sorry Senor to hijack. :toast:

 

[Senor Capper]

No problemo. Plenty of room in here for everyone. Even Patriot fans :0074

 

[hogman14]

As homerish as I am on the Pats, I do try to see things down the middle, and feel I lean more on the side of caution...especially earlier this year w/the secondary in shambles...

Appreciate all the work you do on the board, L. Been following you since I joined the place.

Will post more NE stuff if I don't feel too discriminated against :142smilie

 

[Senor Capper]

LOL okay


I see NE -3.0 at -120 & 125

I'll wait until it hits -110 or even then pounce :0008

Here's a stat or two for you.....

The New England Patriots are 20-0 SU during
the second-half of the season since 2010,
+51 in net turnovers (57-6) in those games.

Not only is Boss Belichick a solid 21-12 ATS at Gillette Stadium the last four games of the season (19-7 ATS when not favored by 11 or more points), Tom Terrifiic weighs in with a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS mark under the Monday Night lights versus a less-than 1.000 opp, including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS when the Patriots own a .640 or higher win percentage.
Add when a squad ventures into New England on a 3rd consective roadie, the Pats have gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS if they?re off a win of 6 or more points.

 

[grandpa]

Here's a shortcut:

Belichick v Kubiak
Brady v Schaub

All you need to know.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Real Early "cashing-in plays":

-3.0

-6.5

-3.0 South Point (spur of the moment, tough play...could always buy it back)

-----------------

FAV LEANS:

BEARS -2.5

PATRIOTS -3.0

NINERS -10.0

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BAL playing Division Rival PIT before traveling is always a brutal task. Hence WAS should be the play. Not too sure about that. Think I'll wait.

Like your Bears & Falcons picks, will tail you with them. GL

 

[Senor Capper]

Chicago is a lean.


Best of luck

 

[LonghornMM]

Here's a shortcut:

Belichick v Kubiak
Brady v Schaub

All you need to know.

This IS all you need to know. Smart man. :0074

 

[Gibson7]

Why do I not see a Denver Broncos helmet ?

 

[Senor Capper]

Because I worked a double and didn't post
I played it though. That's what counts

 

[Senor Capper]

Yes. I had a little time on my hands today .

LOL

 

[baby johnson]

merry christmas Senor, and BOl to us both!

 

[joefrog91]

Awesome analysis on the Pats. I'll be playing the side and the Over in that one. Also like the Dirty Birds and Cheeseheads. Good luck! :0074

 

[Senor Capper]

thanks BJ & Joe

best of luck


:toast:

 

[The Boys]

Good luck my friend............

 

[dunclock]

tell the truth ... you had to look up how to spell Suh's first name :mj07:

best of luck on the plays :0074

 

[AM2kidz]

hey Senor....I follow your picks every week but don't comment very often....Just wanted to say thanks for your input.... the kids will have a better Christmas this year because of you...LOL Lets keep it going....