Se?or Capper's Semana 16

[Senor Capper]

:00hour

7-4 last week. No thanks to my stupid bet on KC and the extreme choke-fest of the Giants, as well as Big Ben blowing it in OT. Not to mention the 2nd half SF +6.5 bet that should've been a lock but lost by a half :facepalm:

Enough whining like a little girl.
Positive is my motto :tongue
Onto Week 16....



SATURDAY

-3.5 WINNAH


Conflicting trends here...

Birds are a loud 11-0 ATS away versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses and 7-1 ATS off a shutout win but 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS on Saturday off a SU win.

Teams off a shutout win from Game Thirteen out are 6-25 SU and 8-23 ATS on the road in non-division games since 1980.


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SUNDAY

+3.0 even & +135 WINNAH, WINNAH

HC Garret: 0-5 ATS as a favorite off back-to-back SU wins, 1-5 ATS with revenge from Game Thirteen out and 1-9 ATS off a SU win versus sub .500 opposition.
Teams are now 11-32-1 ATS as chalk after facing Mike Tomlin?s Steelers.
Series history that shows the ?Boys 0-5 SU and ATS as a favorite since 1994.
Add the Cowgirls are 2-17-1 ATS as non-division favs from Game Thirteen out, including 0-10 ATS off a SU win. :scared

After this win, the Saints will improve to 5-0 SU and ATS versus a non-division opponent off three or more SU wins under Drew Brees. :0074

Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a three-point favorite or less versus any team with fewer wins when they played at home last week. Dallas lost every game straight up and they failed to cover by an average of 18.2 ppg

Dallas is usually overvalued and this week they are especially so. Grab the points :0074

-2.0. :0074 HUGE LOSSAHS

-8.0 WINNAH

+1.0 :0074 :0074 :0074 HUGE WINNAH

-5.0 WINNAH


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ADD-ON GAMES

+11.5 HUGE LOSSAH (Billy Walters & HUGE Sharps play) I'll bite. If he can chance about 100K. I'll throw a couple on it.



BLOW-OUT OF THE WEEK - I can't resist

-14.0 LOSSAH (shoulda resisted) LOL

-10.0 -120 :0074 :0074 WINNAH

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I don't tease, but I do like the looks of this one....

Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser:
Green Bay -6.5 - New England -8.5

Pack are 22-0 ATS in regular season games in December and January as a home favorite after playing on the road.

Patsies are 17-0 ATS on the road after a straight up loss.

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Totals: (bound & determined to get even) LOL

ATL over 50.5 LOSSAH

DAL over 51. WINNAH

CAR over 45.5. LOSSAH
CAR over 20. 2nd half LOSSAH

DEN over 44 WINNAH

WAS over 45 WINNAH

SEA under 40.5 LOSSAH

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Leans: (not enough to pull the trigger)


CIN +3.5. OUTRIGHT W

STL +3.0 OUTRIGHT W

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[pug]

Senor,

It looks like you are taking Atlanta. I'm just a little confused as to your comment below that it is a horrible spot for them. Did you mean to take Detroit or say that it's horrible spot for the Lions?

 

[Senor Capper]

I LOVE PUGS !! :0074


Knowing that they're both in bad spots, I played them anyways :tongue


I'll change it so it doesn't confuse

 

[pug]

I figured you were on Atlanta, just making sure. Pugs are my favorite breed of dog by far. I have 3 of them.

 

[Senor Capper]

Fixed. Threw out some trends.

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My late grandma had 7. At one time !! I used to visit her and when I walked through the door, they'd all run through the house, bouncing off the couches, one after another. It was too funny. :142smilie

 

[RAYMOND]

merry mery lanny boy

 

[rocky mountain]

I figured you were on Atlanta, just making sure. Pugs are my favorite breed of dog by far. I have 3 of them.

I have one he's awesome. Would chew my foot off if it was covered in peanut butter. The dog's got a bigger appetite than Jaws...:facepalm:

Other than his food anxiety , one of the sweetest dog's I have owned.

 

[PocketAces]

I'm looking at/ for a English Bulldog/Pug mix.

Just need sign off from the wife.

 

[rocky mountain]

I'm looking at/ for a English Bulldog/Pug mix.

Just need sign off from the wife.

He will snore like a champion:0074

 

[Statman02]

still a confusing trend on the Saints.......did not they lose 3 of the last 4 ?

 

[Senor Capper]

still a confusing trend on the Saints.......did not they lose 3 of the last 4 ?

.....

versus a non-division opponent off three or more SU wins :shrug:




too much work for me :facepalm:

 

[sdf]

Teams off a shutout win from Game Thirteen out are 6-25 SU and 8-23 ATS on the road in non-division games since 1980.[/COLOR]

a similar stat against NOR

teams off home shutout wins now on the road in a non-division game as a dog of less than a TD are 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS.

 

[Senor Capper]

a similar stat against NOR

teams off home shutout wins now on the road in a non-division game as a dog of less than a TD are 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS.

nice

Not a lock by any means and now Colin Cowherd has DALLAS big :facepalm:

Regardless I stand by my play
Expecting a decent game.

 

[Senor Capper]

two more........

This is the type of game that the Saints LOVE -- vs a hot team with a better record. New Orleans is 15-4 ATS versus any team with more wins and 22-7-1 ATS when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.


Cowboys are a brutal 6-35 ATS (-8.9 ppg) after November versus any team with fewer wins, as long as they are not off a 24-plus point loss.

 

[bigdaddy19]

Good luck Senor. I really like SeaTTLE,CAR,NYG,WASH, AND THE 2 TOTALS OVER. I think the JETS will beat SD WITH the 3rd stringer or is that the 2nd stringer. MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR.

 

[Senor Capper]

good luck BD

MERRY CHRISTMAS & A HAPPY NEW YEAR.

=========

I take it RGIII isn't starting ?


Line is down to 5.

 

[Senor Capper]

Where the action is: NFL Week 16 line moves


Playoff implications and lack of motivation litter NFL Week 16.


Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-8, 45)

Houston has been hit hard and often by the public. The sharp opinion is also backing the Texans, albeit lightly pushing the line to its current -8 value. The teaser action on this game is high as is the bet count at a current 3-to-1 ratio in favor of the Texans. This is one of those games that will make a nice weekend for the books if Minnesota can win outright.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (+7, 41.5)

This has been a completely public dominated affair with the bet count and money count both in favor of the colts at 6-to-1 and 7-to-1 ratios. Sharps have not chimed in on this game and probably won?t.

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5, 47)

The Giants, as usual, are attracting public money on the over. There is a sharp opinion leaning towards the under here but not enough to invert the bet versus amount bet positions. The side is seeing about an 8-to-1 money wagered count in the Giants favor with teaser action going their way as well. This game has been a public-driven position with no real sharp opinion on this side.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (+12.5, 44.5)

Sharps have backed the Titans at double-digit spread values. The Packers have a public backing to the tune of a 5-to-1 advantage in terms of bet count and a 2-to-1 advantage in terms of money wagered.

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-3, 37.5)

There is a sharp-versus-public contrast with the public driving a 3-to-1 bet count in favor of the Chargers and the sharps driving a 2-to-1 wager volume advantage in favor of the down-and-out Jets. Sharp action has driven the line down hard in this unattractive matchup.

Other Week 16 Notes:

This week there are not a lot of sharp-versus-public contrasts. The Week 16 card has seen the sharps backing totals with the under 44/44.5 for the St Louis-Tampa Bay matchup and the over 36 in the Chicago-Arizona game.
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[Senor Capper]

We have a few teams in must-win situations this week, but bettors are only believing in one of them -- the New York Giants. And why not? No team has been better with their backs against the wall than the Giants in recent years. They almost seem to play better in elimination-type games.

Last season, the Giants' playoffs started in Week 16 and they not only won the NFC East with a 9-7 record by winning their final two regular season games, but they also went on to win the four playoff games ending up with another Super Bowl win over the Patriots.

Even though the Giants have lost four of their last six games, bettors still bet them from a two-point underdog to a 2 ?-point favorite at Baltimore. A lot of that can be attributed to the Ravens recent meltdowns, but there seems to be an overwhelming confidence with bettors that Eli Manning and the Giants will come out on top.

While the Giants have lost four of their past six games, it's the two blowout wins over the Packers and Saints over that span that still resonates with most of us, showing that this team isn't dead.

As for the Ravens, it was only two home games ago when we were talking about them as having the best home-field advantage in football, having won 15 straight at home. That was until a Steelers squad took them down without Big Ben and then the Broncos cleaned their clock.

You could say the Ravens are fortunate to even be in the position they're in at 9-7, and could have easily been coming in on a five game losing streak at 7-7. They barely beat Byron Leftwich at Pittsburgh, 13-10, and then the following week it took a fourth-and-29 miracle at San Diego to keep them alive.

Despite some of the Las Vegas sports books getting burned by the Giants last season at odds of 25-to-1 and higher to win the Super Bowl at this juncture, they're 25-to-1 again right now.

On the other side of things we have the Dallas Cowboys, who opened as a 2?-point home favorite against the Saints. Despite winning four of their last five and being competitive in virtually every game this season, no one has faith in them the same way they do for the Giants. In fact, money has been coming in on the Saints and the Cowboys are now -2? (EV).

The same goes for the Steelers, even though they are in a much different situation as far as current form goes. They have lost four of their last five games. They opened as five-point home favorites against the Bengals and Cincy money has pushed the number to -3?.

We used to kind of have the same feeling about the Steelers and Roethlisberger as we do for the Giants and Manning, but the Steelers look out of synch. They throw the ball too much, can;t run when they try and have too many turnovers.

Regardless of how we feel about the Steelers, the move is more about the Bengals. They have won five of their last six games and have the look on both sides of the ball that could give any one of the top AFC teams in the playoffs some problems. Bengals are playoff ready, the Steelers are not.

Here's a look at some of the other moves over the week at Las Vegas sports books:

The Packers went from 10?-point home favorites over the Titans to -12. The total in this game dropped from 47 to 44?.

The Dolphins went from 4?-point home favorites over the Bills to -5.

The Patriots went from 14-point home favorites against the Jaguars to -14.5. The total went from 48? to 50?, not surprising considering the Pats have gone OVER the total in 11 of their past 12 games.

The Colts opened as seven-point road favorites at Kansas City and Chiefs money has bet the number down to -6?.

The Redskins opened at -4? at Philadelphia with expectations that Robert Griffin III would play -- and he is, but when the official announcement came out, the line moved to -6 ?, which appears to be a little excessive considering Griffin isn't 100 %.

The Broncos opened as 10-point home favorites against the Browns and the number has been bet up to -13.

The Bears are sliding fast, but still opened as a 6-point favorite at Arizona. Cardinals money has dropped the number to 5?. Whenever I think of the Bears playing in Arizona, former Cards coach Dennis Green's classic tirade a few years ago after losing a tough game always come to mind. They are who we thought they were and we let them off the hook.?

The Jets have a new quarterback starting this week, and it's not Tim Tebow, but another former SEC star QB, Greg McElroy. The Jets dropped from -3 to -1? for their home game against the Chargers after the announcement, but have been bet back up to -2 ?.

The Seahawks have gone from 1-point home favorites against the 49ers to pick-em. The Seahawks have won and covered every one of their home games this season against some pretty good competition like the Packers, Patriots and Cowboys. Both teams have been playing extremely well offensively, which makes the total in this game set at 39 appear quite low.
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[Senor Capper]

Line dropping on WAS (seen 7s now seeing 5s) and now on NYG (2.5 to 1) :mj08:

 

[IX_Bender]

Yep.

Stated many times my hatred for the NFL putting up 11 early games and only 3 afternoon ones.

NYG/BAL is the key 'primetime' game for most of the country on TV and will be the heaviest bet game today IMO.

Even more than the SF/Seattle.