Se?or Cappers Week Cautro
- Thread starter Senor Capper
- Start date
2011 NFL football season already seen some drastic changes
2011 NFL football season already seen some drastic changes
The 2011 NFL season has already seen some drastic changes from what we?ve been used to over the last decade. Indianapolis can?t win, Detroit and Buffalo are both undefeated through three weeks.
The Lions and Bills made their presence felt by ending lengthy streaks against opponents that had been kicking them around for years. For the Colts, all they did was save Las Vegas sports books Sunday night with inspired play by their defense.
The Lions ended a 13-game skid at Minnesota dating back to 1997 with their 26-23 overtime win while the Bills ended a 15-game losing streak against the Patriots that dated back to 2003 by winning 34-31.
In both cases, each of these teams had to endure a set of daunting circumstances to win beyond their past history. The Lions were down 20-0 and the half while the Bills gave the Patriots a 21-0 lead.
Buffalo gave their supporters a +290 payout on the money-line. Some of those supporters who liked the Bills just fine on the point spread were the sharpest bettors in the world. The Sharps bet the Bills from +9 all the way down to +7.
"We had a lot of straight bet action on the Bills that pushed the game down to 7, but it was a good decision for us because of all the teasers and parlays attached to the Patriots side. It knocked out a lot of risk on the day," said Red Rock sports book director Jason McCormick.
"However, the Lions winning by 3 wasn?t good for us. Most of the straight bet action was on the Vikings at +3? and then the bulk of the parlay action was given back as a push on both sides at 3 keeping them alive for the afternoon games."
It was amazing to watch this Bills team once again show that they can put over 30 points on anyone. Buffalo?s offense scored a season low 34 points on the day giving them a total of 113 points in their three games. Although the Patriots defense isn?t what it used to be, it?s safe to say that you won?t be getting too many points with Buffalo at home anytime soon.
The Bills should be the most rapidly elevated team in the power ratings this week, while Patriots ? because of their porous defense ? will drop below a few points below the Packers.
The Super-Eagles thought all would be well once it was announced that Michael Vick would be playing after he didn?t practice much in the week due to a concussion.
The sports books offered the Eagles as an 8-point favorite with Vick playing and the game would have been -3 with Mike Kafka starting. As it turns out, Kafka got plenty of playing time as Vick was again was knocked out the game, this time with a broken right hand (non-throwing), which is expected to keep him out 3-to 4 weeks.
The Giants had already played well enough to win even with Vick taking the snaps, and when he went out, so did the Eagles steam. The Giants went on to win 29-16 paying out those who had the fore-sight of them winning at +330 on the money-line.
"The Giants win was good for the house because it knocked out a big chunk of the days parlays and teasers on the Eagles," McCormick said.
After a decent first wave of early games, the afternoon was a back-breaker for most books with the Ravens and Packers being keyed together in most parlays.
"The Ravens game was where we took the biggest hit, not only was it one of the more bet upon games of the day from a parlay and teaser standpoint, but it was also one-sided on straight bets."
Baltimore had been bet up to a 6-point favorite on Sunday morning for their game at St. Louis after standing alone almost the entire week at -4.
"Unlike the Browns game where money came in on the other side when Peyton Hillis was announced as not playing, the announcement that the Rams RB Steven Jackson would play made no difference," McCormick said. "Ravens money just kept pouring in."
One lucky bettor at the South Point (HOOKS ??) hit a $100, 10-team parlay for $65,000 with the late games proving to be a little better for him than most other bettors. The Raiders and Seahawks helped him cash in on the late games.
After grinding out the 14 early games with the favorites only going 5-8-1, the sports books day rested with the lowly Colts getting 11-points at home against the Steelers. Had the Steelers covered it would have wiped away the entire days win. No one wanted the Colts and the ticket count ratio for Pittsburgh was off the charts.
Usually the isolated games don?t see as much action during the week with small bettors opting to put their bankroll for Sunday?s games on the earlier games and then re-strategize after their own results are known. But this week it was all Pittsburgh, all week, as if it were part of the 10 a.m. rotation.
Kerry Collins once again played poorly, but the Colts defensive line came up with a big effort against Big Ben and even scored on their own to help the cause.
The Steelers eventually won 23-20, but at least Indianapolis has something good to feel about moving forward. You can also expect Curtis Painter to take over the starting quarterback role this week for the Colts which should be an improvement.
2011 NFL football season already seen some drastic changes
The 2011 NFL season has already seen some drastic changes from what we?ve been used to over the last decade. Indianapolis can?t win, Detroit and Buffalo are both undefeated through three weeks.
The Lions and Bills made their presence felt by ending lengthy streaks against opponents that had been kicking them around for years. For the Colts, all they did was save Las Vegas sports books Sunday night with inspired play by their defense.
The Lions ended a 13-game skid at Minnesota dating back to 1997 with their 26-23 overtime win while the Bills ended a 15-game losing streak against the Patriots that dated back to 2003 by winning 34-31.
In both cases, each of these teams had to endure a set of daunting circumstances to win beyond their past history. The Lions were down 20-0 and the half while the Bills gave the Patriots a 21-0 lead.
Buffalo gave their supporters a +290 payout on the money-line. Some of those supporters who liked the Bills just fine on the point spread were the sharpest bettors in the world. The Sharps bet the Bills from +9 all the way down to +7.
"We had a lot of straight bet action on the Bills that pushed the game down to 7, but it was a good decision for us because of all the teasers and parlays attached to the Patriots side. It knocked out a lot of risk on the day," said Red Rock sports book director Jason McCormick.
"However, the Lions winning by 3 wasn?t good for us. Most of the straight bet action was on the Vikings at +3? and then the bulk of the parlay action was given back as a push on both sides at 3 keeping them alive for the afternoon games."
It was amazing to watch this Bills team once again show that they can put over 30 points on anyone. Buffalo?s offense scored a season low 34 points on the day giving them a total of 113 points in their three games. Although the Patriots defense isn?t what it used to be, it?s safe to say that you won?t be getting too many points with Buffalo at home anytime soon.
The Bills should be the most rapidly elevated team in the power ratings this week, while Patriots ? because of their porous defense ? will drop below a few points below the Packers.
The Super-Eagles thought all would be well once it was announced that Michael Vick would be playing after he didn?t practice much in the week due to a concussion.
The sports books offered the Eagles as an 8-point favorite with Vick playing and the game would have been -3 with Mike Kafka starting. As it turns out, Kafka got plenty of playing time as Vick was again was knocked out the game, this time with a broken right hand (non-throwing), which is expected to keep him out 3-to 4 weeks.
The Giants had already played well enough to win even with Vick taking the snaps, and when he went out, so did the Eagles steam. The Giants went on to win 29-16 paying out those who had the fore-sight of them winning at +330 on the money-line.
"The Giants win was good for the house because it knocked out a big chunk of the days parlays and teasers on the Eagles," McCormick said.
After a decent first wave of early games, the afternoon was a back-breaker for most books with the Ravens and Packers being keyed together in most parlays.
"The Ravens game was where we took the biggest hit, not only was it one of the more bet upon games of the day from a parlay and teaser standpoint, but it was also one-sided on straight bets."
Baltimore had been bet up to a 6-point favorite on Sunday morning for their game at St. Louis after standing alone almost the entire week at -4.
"Unlike the Browns game where money came in on the other side when Peyton Hillis was announced as not playing, the announcement that the Rams RB Steven Jackson would play made no difference," McCormick said. "Ravens money just kept pouring in."
One lucky bettor at the South Point (HOOKS ??) hit a $100, 10-team parlay for $65,000 with the late games proving to be a little better for him than most other bettors. The Raiders and Seahawks helped him cash in on the late games.
After grinding out the 14 early games with the favorites only going 5-8-1, the sports books day rested with the lowly Colts getting 11-points at home against the Steelers. Had the Steelers covered it would have wiped away the entire days win. No one wanted the Colts and the ticket count ratio for Pittsburgh was off the charts.
Usually the isolated games don?t see as much action during the week with small bettors opting to put their bankroll for Sunday?s games on the earlier games and then re-strategize after their own results are known. But this week it was all Pittsburgh, all week, as if it were part of the 10 a.m. rotation.
Kerry Collins once again played poorly, but the Colts defensive line came up with a big effort against Big Ben and even scored on their own to help the cause.
The Steelers eventually won 23-20, but at least Indianapolis has something good to feel about moving forward. You can also expect Curtis Painter to take over the starting quarterback role this week for the Colts which should be an improvement.
Key NFL Football info that box scores and recaps don?t have
Key NFL Football info that box scores and recaps don?t have
TAMPA BAY
Josh Freeman is an absolute superstar, but the fact he doesn?t put up monster fantasy stats or live in a major media market keeps him well underneath the radar. Plus, this is a ?no-name? receiving corps not helping their QB like a Calvin Johnson or a Wes Welker would.
Freeman creates, plain and simple. He keeps plays alive with his legs and size. His teammates have enormous confidence in him. In his 15 career victories more than half have been of the come-from-behind in the fourth quarter variety. This defensive line is playing extremely well.
The Bucs covered as short home favorites, but it?s not their preferred role. They are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 on the road, winning nine straight up.
PHILADELPHIA
These linebackers really can?t tackle, even after a reshuffling that saw all three starting LB?s play a new position this week. Philly has allowed more than five yards per carry.
Philly?s high priced cornerbacks were a disaster trying to wrap up receivers. They spent all afternoon going for interceptions, missed tackles, took bad angles and blew assignments.
Is that what happens when Andy Reid turns his offensive line coach into a defensive coordinator? Will the drop-off from kicker David Akers to Alex Henery make a difference at some point this season? No field goal makes from outside the 40 so far this year.
The Eagles were completely dominated in short yardage situations against the Giants, particularly in the red zone and on 4th and 1 ? the decisive play of the game. I was not impressed with Marty Mornhinweg?s play calling. Could this team completely implode with internal chemistry issues?
ATLANTA
Last year the Falcons finished third in the NFL (behind the Saints and Patriots), converting 46.7% of their third down situations. This year they are right in the middle of the pack. The difference is simple. Last year they were in third and short, this year third and long.
Michael Turner has been largely ineffective, a classic case of averages lying. In Week 1, Turner reeled off a 53 yarder. He only carried nine other times. Last week against Philly, Turner had a 61 yard carry. His other 20 carries produced only 53 yards.
Against Tampa, ?The Burner? was blown up repeatedly at the line of scrimmage, averaging less than two yards per touch.
Matt Ryan didn?t have much time to throw either. The problem is a serious regression from the offensive line.
DETROIT
If you want to know why I?ve been ripping OT Jeff Backus in this column for the last decade, just watch the Lions last four offensive plays of regulation on ?Short Cuts? this week. Backus had two false starts, beaten for a sack and on a running play that nearly cost the win against Minnesota.
This victory was far more impressive than the one against KC last week. We saw Detroit face serious adversity and rise above it on the road ? the type of win that inspires real confidence in a team learning how to win when not bringing its ?A? game.
CAROLINA
QB Cam Newton is getting protection from his OL and looks surprisingly comfortable in the pocket going through his progressions. He?s not staring down his receivers; seeing the field well. Tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olson are providing a solid complement over the middle to Steve Smith on the outside.
Newton did this despite a non-existent Carolina running game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart came into the Jacksonville game averaging less than 2.5 yard per carry. Neither moved the chains with regularity against the Jags. The box score won?t show it, but this was Newton?s best outing ? making the plays that counted with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
NEW ORLEANS
This defense got gashed against Houston, just as we saw in Week 1 against the Packers. The Saints were destroyed at the defensive line of scrimmage and really struggled to stop both the run and pass. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams? high risk, high reward aggression isn?t working against the better offenses, but this ?D? stiffened in the red zone to force field goals instead of getting blown out!
New Orleans is going to have to score a whole bunch of touchdowns if this defense continues to perform like this. QB Drew Brees played near flawless football, despite throwing his first two interceptions of the season. The 104 points in three games goes a long way towards masking defensive liabilities.
SEATTLE
This was a different looking offense with the addition of one player ? WR Sidney Rice, who had to sit the first two weeks with an injury. Rice and Tavaris Jackson combined for seven TD?s together in Minnesota and had instant chemistry here.
With eight new starters on the offensive side of the football, it?s going to take some time for Seattle to develop any semblance of chemistry across the board. It?s pretty clear that even with Rice on the field, Jackson is a bottom tier NFL quarterback at this stage of his career.
Seattle?s special teams problems have not been solved. Punter John Ryan?s nine yarder late in the fourth quarter against Arizona cost the victory. Seattle didn?t win as much as the Cardinals lost it.
MINNESOTA
The collapse against Detroit sure has the feel of a season ender for a veteran team with high expectations. QB Donovan McNabb will certainly take the heat, and his performance was bench-worthy; Christian Ponder-worthy, you might say. From a leadership standpoint, he?s done, three games into his Vikings career.
Adrian Peterson had one 43 yard carry, but barely averaged two yards per rush on his other 16, thanks to extremely poor offensive line play. Percy Harvin couldn?t get on the field with the game on the line in the fourth quarter (upset stomach), but he was fine to go out for the overtime coin toss. Former pro bowler Steve Hutchinson got dominated at the line of scrimmage.
Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave?s decision to use Toby Gerhart in a key fourth and 1 situation (stuffed) could have cost him the locker room already. Defensively, the secondary got torched. Jared Allen played with his hair on fire, but couldn?t get his team off the field on third downs.
Key NFL Football info that box scores and recaps don?t have
TAMPA BAY
Josh Freeman is an absolute superstar, but the fact he doesn?t put up monster fantasy stats or live in a major media market keeps him well underneath the radar. Plus, this is a ?no-name? receiving corps not helping their QB like a Calvin Johnson or a Wes Welker would.
Freeman creates, plain and simple. He keeps plays alive with his legs and size. His teammates have enormous confidence in him. In his 15 career victories more than half have been of the come-from-behind in the fourth quarter variety. This defensive line is playing extremely well.
The Bucs covered as short home favorites, but it?s not their preferred role. They are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 on the road, winning nine straight up.
PHILADELPHIA
These linebackers really can?t tackle, even after a reshuffling that saw all three starting LB?s play a new position this week. Philly has allowed more than five yards per carry.
Philly?s high priced cornerbacks were a disaster trying to wrap up receivers. They spent all afternoon going for interceptions, missed tackles, took bad angles and blew assignments.
Is that what happens when Andy Reid turns his offensive line coach into a defensive coordinator? Will the drop-off from kicker David Akers to Alex Henery make a difference at some point this season? No field goal makes from outside the 40 so far this year.
The Eagles were completely dominated in short yardage situations against the Giants, particularly in the red zone and on 4th and 1 ? the decisive play of the game. I was not impressed with Marty Mornhinweg?s play calling. Could this team completely implode with internal chemistry issues?
ATLANTA
Last year the Falcons finished third in the NFL (behind the Saints and Patriots), converting 46.7% of their third down situations. This year they are right in the middle of the pack. The difference is simple. Last year they were in third and short, this year third and long.
Michael Turner has been largely ineffective, a classic case of averages lying. In Week 1, Turner reeled off a 53 yarder. He only carried nine other times. Last week against Philly, Turner had a 61 yard carry. His other 20 carries produced only 53 yards.
Against Tampa, ?The Burner? was blown up repeatedly at the line of scrimmage, averaging less than two yards per touch.
Matt Ryan didn?t have much time to throw either. The problem is a serious regression from the offensive line.
DETROIT
If you want to know why I?ve been ripping OT Jeff Backus in this column for the last decade, just watch the Lions last four offensive plays of regulation on ?Short Cuts? this week. Backus had two false starts, beaten for a sack and on a running play that nearly cost the win against Minnesota.
This victory was far more impressive than the one against KC last week. We saw Detroit face serious adversity and rise above it on the road ? the type of win that inspires real confidence in a team learning how to win when not bringing its ?A? game.
CAROLINA
QB Cam Newton is getting protection from his OL and looks surprisingly comfortable in the pocket going through his progressions. He?s not staring down his receivers; seeing the field well. Tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olson are providing a solid complement over the middle to Steve Smith on the outside.
Newton did this despite a non-existent Carolina running game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart came into the Jacksonville game averaging less than 2.5 yard per carry. Neither moved the chains with regularity against the Jags. The box score won?t show it, but this was Newton?s best outing ? making the plays that counted with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
NEW ORLEANS
This defense got gashed against Houston, just as we saw in Week 1 against the Packers. The Saints were destroyed at the defensive line of scrimmage and really struggled to stop both the run and pass. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams? high risk, high reward aggression isn?t working against the better offenses, but this ?D? stiffened in the red zone to force field goals instead of getting blown out!
New Orleans is going to have to score a whole bunch of touchdowns if this defense continues to perform like this. QB Drew Brees played near flawless football, despite throwing his first two interceptions of the season. The 104 points in three games goes a long way towards masking defensive liabilities.
SEATTLE
This was a different looking offense with the addition of one player ? WR Sidney Rice, who had to sit the first two weeks with an injury. Rice and Tavaris Jackson combined for seven TD?s together in Minnesota and had instant chemistry here.
With eight new starters on the offensive side of the football, it?s going to take some time for Seattle to develop any semblance of chemistry across the board. It?s pretty clear that even with Rice on the field, Jackson is a bottom tier NFL quarterback at this stage of his career.
Seattle?s special teams problems have not been solved. Punter John Ryan?s nine yarder late in the fourth quarter against Arizona cost the victory. Seattle didn?t win as much as the Cardinals lost it.
MINNESOTA
The collapse against Detroit sure has the feel of a season ender for a veteran team with high expectations. QB Donovan McNabb will certainly take the heat, and his performance was bench-worthy; Christian Ponder-worthy, you might say. From a leadership standpoint, he?s done, three games into his Vikings career.
Adrian Peterson had one 43 yard carry, but barely averaged two yards per rush on his other 16, thanks to extremely poor offensive line play. Percy Harvin couldn?t get on the field with the game on the line in the fourth quarter (upset stomach), but he was fine to go out for the overtime coin toss. Former pro bowler Steve Hutchinson got dominated at the line of scrimmage.
Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave?s decision to use Toby Gerhart in a key fourth and 1 situation (stuffed) could have cost him the locker room already. Defensively, the secondary got torched. Jared Allen played with his hair on fire, but couldn?t get his team off the field on third downs.
Gracias
Gracias
Thanks again...good stuff, particularly on the Bucs: I told betting buddies of mine that Bucs would garner more wins than Falcons this year and Freeman>Ryan, IMO....last weeks win was a big statement win for the Buccos.
Watch out for the Ravens offense now....although Joe FLacco is a pick and stick QB whos not too great between the numbers, he's top 5 in NFL at hitting the long sideline outs and the deep ball down the sideline...with the addition of Torrey Smith (reminds me of James Jett, he has theat Jett or Hester like explosive video game burst) Ravens offense (a derivative of the old Air Coryell offense) now has a speed WR that will command attention by safeties over the top, thus further opening up other options for the Cam Cameron offense, like the screen game to Ray Rice and Boldin working the middle seams....another excellent job by a premier drafter in Ozzie Newsome, matching the right WR with his Quarterbacks skill set perfectly.......
Gracias
Thanks again...good stuff, particularly on the Bucs: I told betting buddies of mine that Bucs would garner more wins than Falcons this year and Freeman>Ryan, IMO....last weeks win was a big statement win for the Buccos.
Watch out for the Ravens offense now....although Joe FLacco is a pick and stick QB whos not too great between the numbers, he's top 5 in NFL at hitting the long sideline outs and the deep ball down the sideline...with the addition of Torrey Smith (reminds me of James Jett, he has theat Jett or Hester like explosive video game burst) Ravens offense (a derivative of the old Air Coryell offense) now has a speed WR that will command attention by safeties over the top, thus further opening up other options for the Cam Cameron offense, like the screen game to Ray Rice and Boldin working the middle seams....another excellent job by a premier drafter in Ozzie Newsome, matching the right WR with his Quarterbacks skill set perfectly.......
No purple this week? :shrug: :mj07:
On a side note the Vikes have never won in KC in my 38 years and I do not know it they have ever won
On a side note the Vikes have never won in KC in my 38 years and I do not know it they have ever won
Jesus I hope he is tanning his ass somewhere that's awesome...... Who does he like this week:0008
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,176
- 356
- 83
- 74
Came out flat in 2nd half :sadwave:
I shoulda stayed with GB & NE but noo
I only post the LOSER !!
I got greedy :facepalm:
I shoulda stayed with GB & NE but noo
I only post the LOSER !!
I got greedy :facepalm:
Bad Beat City today 
Went up the street to Leroys to bet BALT & it was 6 :scared
Ended up with the JETS and Under 43.5
Best to all
:toast:
Went up the street to Leroys to bet BALT & it was 6 :scared
Ended up with the JETS and Under 43.5
Best to all
:toast:
Bad Beat City today
Went up the street to Leroys to bet BALT & it was 6 :scared
Ended up with the JETS and Under 43.5
Best to all
:toast:
:0003
