Sea/hou Total

[jderrida]

Well, today not much going on and many lines that are tricky as expected. One thing that sticks out as a potential trap or good bet is the SEA/HOU total of 177.

The OVR looks tempting at that line for the following reason:

Summary of past games in this series played at HOUSTON since 1996

HOUSTON is 10-6 in past games against SEATTLE since 1996

The average score in these games was HOUSTON 100, SEATTLE 98

Summary of games played at HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 3-1 in past games against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons

The average score in these games was SEATTLE 98, HOUSTON 96


Also, Seattle is 50-29 Over off a SU home win


The only thing that bothers me (to give credit on an under) is the fact that they are all jump shooters and free-throws might not very high which will keep the clock going. But, if they hit their shots (many 3s) the over should come in. But, these are only trends and just that.

Any thougts?

JD

 

[gsp]

J, for what it is worth, my stuff shows this game going under. Good luck today.

 

[jderrida]

gsp:

Thanks, I think I will pass today on the games as the GS UND looks tempting along with the SEA OVR, but it's early and I will hold on to my units until a better day...thanks

 

[Spock]

mebbe its the screwy line of the day.

learnin from past experience and joe's insight I will Pass

Good luck
Spock

 

[gsp]

Guys, here is how I see the total in the Hou game. This is not saying I will play it but it sure looks like I might. First of all I don't let anything that happened last year sway me because these are different teams. I do look at the coach but even they will change based on current talent (if they are smart).

Let's look at Hou first. We have very little to look at because both teams have played only five games but so far Hou d (that's where I always start on totals) is ave 77 ppg while the o is scoring 84. I think the 77 is a little low based on who they played the first two games. Let''s give them 81 to be safe.

Now let's look at Sea. They have only played two games and one of them was GS. I always allow an extra 10 points on the offence based on GS defence. The numbers come out that the d is allowing 83 while the o is scoring 87. Now here are the three possible scores based on o against o, d against d, and o against d.

Sea 87 Hou 84
Sea 83 Hou 81
Sea 84 Hou 83

As you can see, based on these numbers, the under looks pretty good so why is the line at 177. Keep in mind that Las Vegas don't just use stats when they cap. The psychology of the betting public is taken into account in a big way. They know that most cappers will go back and look at last year because there is so little info for this year and based on last year this line looks like a gift at 177. When you look at it like I approch it, it don't even look out of line, just a good solid under and if this line stays here the rest of the day it becomes a solid play.

On the sides, if you allow 3 points for the home court, Sea -1 is extremely close. If I had to play the sides, it would have to be Hou.

I'm not saying to play the under here but I would be very careful before putting money on the over.

 

[jderrida]

GSP:

Thanks so much for the candid reply. Not many will take the time like you to reply to so many posts. You're quite popular around here!! Anyway, I have a good friend, that suggests that evidence is provided that the total may in fact be right on and in that case, I don't think I will chance it. GSP, you may be in fact right and furthermore, I will not bet against that position.

Going to play light tonight and enjoy the games in preparation for tomorrow.

JD