Just a little info I've been working on here.
For the last few years I've done very well betting on Season Win Total O/U's. Mostly betting on teams with high totals to go Under the number, and teams with low totals to go Over the number. Apparently I'm not the only one onto this. Last odds I saw, 26 of the 32 teams have a win total posted between 6? and 10. No more extreme numbers to pick on. But maybe still some value out there anyways.
Check this out....
2000's best teams and their records, followed by their 2001 records:
Tennessee: 13-3, 7-9
NY Giants: 12-4, 7-9
Oakland: 12-4, 10-6
Baltimore: 12-4, 10-6
Denver: 11-5, 8-8
Miami: 11-5, 11-5
Minnesota: 11-5, 5-11
Philadelphia: 11-5, 11-5
New Orleans: 10-6, 7-9
Tampa Bay: 10-6, 9-7
St Louis: 10-6, 14-2
Indianapolis: 10-6, 6-10
That's all the teams from 2000 that won 10 games or more. In 2001, 9 of those teams got worse, 2 won the same amount, and 1 improved.
=======================================================
2000's worst teams and their records, followed by their 2001 records:
San Diego 1-15, 5-11
Arizona 3-13, 7-9
Cleveland 3-13, 7-9
Cincinnati 4-12, 6-10
Atlanta 4-12, 7-9
New England 5-11, 11-5
Dallas 5-11, 5-11
Chicago 5-11, 13-3
Seattle 6-10, 9-7
San Francisco 6-10, 12-4
Of all the teams from 2000 that won 6 games or less, in 2001, 9 of those teams got better, 1 won the same amount, and NONE got worse.
One thing that does have to be kept in mind.....this year the schedule is based less on the previous year's performance. IE. if you had a crappy year before, you got a pretty damn soft 5th place schedule the next year. 4 of the 16 games were based on performance before....now only 2 of the 16 games are. This may lessen the bounce-back effect a bit.
Still a pretty strong trend I think regardless.
(You've also got to take into account the new divisional alignment. For some teams it will make a HUGE difference gaining or losing 2 games against a really tough/really lousy opponent or 2)
For the last few years I've done very well betting on Season Win Total O/U's. Mostly betting on teams with high totals to go Under the number, and teams with low totals to go Over the number. Apparently I'm not the only one onto this. Last odds I saw, 26 of the 32 teams have a win total posted between 6? and 10. No more extreme numbers to pick on. But maybe still some value out there anyways.
Check this out....
2000's best teams and their records, followed by their 2001 records:
Tennessee: 13-3, 7-9
NY Giants: 12-4, 7-9
Oakland: 12-4, 10-6
Baltimore: 12-4, 10-6
Denver: 11-5, 8-8
Miami: 11-5, 11-5
Minnesota: 11-5, 5-11
Philadelphia: 11-5, 11-5
New Orleans: 10-6, 7-9
Tampa Bay: 10-6, 9-7
St Louis: 10-6, 14-2
Indianapolis: 10-6, 6-10
That's all the teams from 2000 that won 10 games or more. In 2001, 9 of those teams got worse, 2 won the same amount, and 1 improved.
=======================================================
2000's worst teams and their records, followed by their 2001 records:
San Diego 1-15, 5-11
Arizona 3-13, 7-9
Cleveland 3-13, 7-9
Cincinnati 4-12, 6-10
Atlanta 4-12, 7-9
New England 5-11, 11-5
Dallas 5-11, 5-11
Chicago 5-11, 13-3
Seattle 6-10, 9-7
San Francisco 6-10, 12-4
Of all the teams from 2000 that won 6 games or less, in 2001, 9 of those teams got better, 1 won the same amount, and NONE got worse.
One thing that does have to be kept in mind.....this year the schedule is based less on the previous year's performance. IE. if you had a crappy year before, you got a pretty damn soft 5th place schedule the next year. 4 of the 16 games were based on performance before....now only 2 of the 16 games are. This may lessen the bounce-back effect a bit.
Still a pretty strong trend I think regardless.
(You've also got to take into account the new divisional alignment. For some teams it will make a HUGE difference gaining or losing 2 games against a really tough/really lousy opponent or 2)
