Second Half
- Thread starter Northern Star
- Start date
- Sep 24, 2010
- 180
- 2
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I?m took Stanford live +150 in the 1st half. You looking at any props for football today?
Not going to play any player props because too many unknowns....better off waiting for another day to fight. I only looked at Pitts players over. Would have picked one of the wr but if they get ahead they could quit passing.
I have a story about props for maybe later.
Northern Star
I have a story about props for maybe later.
Northern Star
Giving away one of my secrets here and I am really mad.
So what do you do if you see a bad line offshore. Here is what not to do. Dont make a big play on the game. If you do they might catch the error and cancel your bet.
So this was maybe 3 or 4 years ago and I am looking through the props in a Green Bay playoff game. They had the odds of Green Bay scoring over 1.5 touchdowns in the first quarter minus 1700. The odds for them not to score 1.5 tds plus 1400. I did a double take. This cant be right. Of course it was wrong. It should have been reversed.
So what do you do when you see a bad line. I made a bunch of 5 to 10 team parlays at smaller amounts. I would bury the bad line in the parlay. I would use some big moneyline teams in the parlays. I would also add teams I like during the week. If you add a -110 or two to a plus 1400 team the payoffs gets get very good. Heck I even did some where I had one team in a parlay and their opponent in a different parlay.
This is another important thing. I also had a bunch of open spots in the parlays. Why do this you may ask? Because if your account makes a huge increase in a single day. Guess what you just raised the flag of hey look at me.
Game day came and none of my bets had been canceled. I was just giddy. Usually about 3 possessions in a quarter maybe 4. Green Bay gets the ball drives to the 50 and kicks. Perfect just ate up about 4 minutes. San Fran gets a first down and punts. I am counting my money. Green Bay breaks a long one and scores with about 5 minutes left in the quarter. Just what I don't need.
Now I just need San Fran to move the ball and eat up the rest of the quarter. No pick 6...no fumbles....just a first down or two and I have a 14 to one winner. Of course it couldn't be that easy. San Fran punts the ball back to Green Bay. Green Bay of course doesnt run the ball they come out throwing. I could swear they were going to score. They got to about San Fran's 30 when the quarter finally ended.
I proceeded to slowly close out the open ended parlays over a period of time with large moneyline teams. All to avoid raising the flag. So that is how you take advantage of a bad line offshore.
So why am I mad today. Of course I found a bad line in the props. The total pass attempts for Ben today was 36. The posted total completions was 35.5. So I bet a bunch of small parlays using the method described on under 35.5 (the correct line should have been 25.5). Baltimore lets them throw little dink passes all day and Pittsburgh did everything wrong including letting Baltimore go 2 plays for 88 yards with 3 minutes left. Pittsburgh doesn't try to run the clock out by running. They throw 3 straight passes include a lofted pass that could have been intercepted but instead was completion number 36. Tough one to lose.
Now you know what to do if you find a mistake in the line. Try not to get too greedy.
Rebel did you read the horse racing article I posted? I put it in the main forum too. Its a good read.
Northern Star
So what do you do if you see a bad line offshore. Here is what not to do. Dont make a big play on the game. If you do they might catch the error and cancel your bet.
So this was maybe 3 or 4 years ago and I am looking through the props in a Green Bay playoff game. They had the odds of Green Bay scoring over 1.5 touchdowns in the first quarter minus 1700. The odds for them not to score 1.5 tds plus 1400. I did a double take. This cant be right. Of course it was wrong. It should have been reversed.
So what do you do when you see a bad line. I made a bunch of 5 to 10 team parlays at smaller amounts. I would bury the bad line in the parlay. I would use some big moneyline teams in the parlays. I would also add teams I like during the week. If you add a -110 or two to a plus 1400 team the payoffs gets get very good. Heck I even did some where I had one team in a parlay and their opponent in a different parlay.
This is another important thing. I also had a bunch of open spots in the parlays. Why do this you may ask? Because if your account makes a huge increase in a single day. Guess what you just raised the flag of hey look at me.
Game day came and none of my bets had been canceled. I was just giddy. Usually about 3 possessions in a quarter maybe 4. Green Bay gets the ball drives to the 50 and kicks. Perfect just ate up about 4 minutes. San Fran gets a first down and punts. I am counting my money. Green Bay breaks a long one and scores with about 5 minutes left in the quarter. Just what I don't need.
Now I just need San Fran to move the ball and eat up the rest of the quarter. No pick 6...no fumbles....just a first down or two and I have a 14 to one winner. Of course it couldn't be that easy. San Fran punts the ball back to Green Bay. Green Bay of course doesnt run the ball they come out throwing. I could swear they were going to score. They got to about San Fran's 30 when the quarter finally ended.
I proceeded to slowly close out the open ended parlays over a period of time with large moneyline teams. All to avoid raising the flag. So that is how you take advantage of a bad line offshore.
So why am I mad today. Of course I found a bad line in the props. The total pass attempts for Ben today was 36. The posted total completions was 35.5. So I bet a bunch of small parlays using the method described on under 35.5 (the correct line should have been 25.5). Baltimore lets them throw little dink passes all day and Pittsburgh did everything wrong including letting Baltimore go 2 plays for 88 yards with 3 minutes left. Pittsburgh doesn't try to run the clock out by running. They throw 3 straight passes include a lofted pass that could have been intercepted but instead was completion number 36. Tough one to lose.
Now you know what to do if you find a mistake in the line. Try not to get too greedy.
Rebel did you read the horse racing article I posted? I put it in the main forum too. Its a good read.
Northern Star
