I would like to know what your opinion is about Noront Resouces ,Active in gold and base metal resource exploration throughout Ontario, New Brunswick, Quebec, China and Mexico NOT aka NOSOF stock. I've been reading alot about this stock on different boards and most think its way undervalued. I would really like to know what you think or know about it. Thanks, Lor
selkirk are you familiar with Noront Resouces
- Thread starter LOR
- Start date
LOR I do not own at this time any small cap mining stocks, no banks (in my trading accounts) and all energy positons are hedged with covered calls.
as for Noront it closed today at $3.39 and has been trading for around 3.50 recently. I heard of this company and they did have some projects, though never invested.
this stock did not do much of anything, until late summer (fall of 2007) when they annouced great drill results from Double eagle. it very quickly climbed and hit a high of 7.05 (high 7.05 low .29).
they hit a number of holes with high amounts of copper and nickel. they also and (media, and others) started to talk about another voisey bay.
I actually still have (have to find it ) the annual report of diamond fields before they hit voisey bay, barely mentioned....that was a fun story.
they have other projects but probably Double Eagle will move the stock down or up.
here are some questions I would have, not just of this company but any jr. mining stock/company.
1. how much cash do they have on hand?
2. what is their burn rate? basically how much do they plan to spend this year, or how long will the cash last. keep costs...low.
3. the volume is dropping, now the markets have been brutal (Toronto down 7.5% and SP down 9.2%) however hate when a jr. is trading 1.8/1.9 million compared to an average of 3 million. like to see a return to higher or average volume.
4. they have sold some large portions of share to Pinetree, how much is owned by insitutions.
5. now believe they hired JP Morgan, what is new there, believe the company would like a joint venture for Double eagle, or a partner to earn it.... would seem much harder to get, I mean many of the base metal stocks in Canada are getting killed and going lower HBM, FNX, Teck (light show), and many large internationals are going lower.
harder to get a partner in this environment, (companies are very carefull with their money.)
6. the drilling on the project, pencil, the holes are great but they need to find more, this is not a mine yet.
as for great upside not sure, the compnay has 118+ million shares out and a current market cap of 401 million.
at $7 you have a 826 million market cap, I would not pay that unles I knew for sure without a doubt that Double eagle was a mine. and a highly profitable one at that.....
pluses potential in a couple of projects and well, well promoted.
LOR worth watching, one more point on most of these discussion boards there are very few short sellers. most everyone on them have already drunken the koolaid.
that does not mean that there is not knowledgeable people who live and breathe this stock, hobby or a passion on these plays, develop.
however often very rarely an alteranate view, or people willing to hear it...... knew one short seller who use to short penny mining stocks, would just state facts and people would attack...was not even that hostile in his posts.
it is worth a look but would be willing to pay more once they have more drilling results.
note: the number of stocks on sale are great, will post this weekend or soon but some are looking cheap.... have been watching...no need to catch a falling knife....and do not care if I get the lowest price.
thanks
selkirk
as for Noront it closed today at $3.39 and has been trading for around 3.50 recently. I heard of this company and they did have some projects, though never invested.
this stock did not do much of anything, until late summer (fall of 2007) when they annouced great drill results from Double eagle. it very quickly climbed and hit a high of 7.05 (high 7.05 low .29).
they hit a number of holes with high amounts of copper and nickel. they also and (media, and others) started to talk about another voisey bay.
I actually still have (have to find it ) the annual report of diamond fields before they hit voisey bay, barely mentioned....that was a fun story.
they have other projects but probably Double Eagle will move the stock down or up.
here are some questions I would have, not just of this company but any jr. mining stock/company.
1. how much cash do they have on hand?
2. what is their burn rate? basically how much do they plan to spend this year, or how long will the cash last. keep costs...low.
3. the volume is dropping, now the markets have been brutal (Toronto down 7.5% and SP down 9.2%) however hate when a jr. is trading 1.8/1.9 million compared to an average of 3 million. like to see a return to higher or average volume.
4. they have sold some large portions of share to Pinetree, how much is owned by insitutions.
5. now believe they hired JP Morgan, what is new there, believe the company would like a joint venture for Double eagle, or a partner to earn it.... would seem much harder to get, I mean many of the base metal stocks in Canada are getting killed and going lower HBM, FNX, Teck (light show), and many large internationals are going lower.
harder to get a partner in this environment, (companies are very carefull with their money.)
6. the drilling on the project, pencil, the holes are great but they need to find more, this is not a mine yet.
as for great upside not sure, the compnay has 118+ million shares out and a current market cap of 401 million.
at $7 you have a 826 million market cap, I would not pay that unles I knew for sure without a doubt that Double eagle was a mine. and a highly profitable one at that.....
pluses potential in a couple of projects and well, well promoted.
LOR worth watching, one more point on most of these discussion boards there are very few short sellers. most everyone on them have already drunken the koolaid.
that does not mean that there is not knowledgeable people who live and breathe this stock, hobby or a passion on these plays, develop.
however often very rarely an alteranate view, or people willing to hear it...... knew one short seller who use to short penny mining stocks, would just state facts and people would attack...was not even that hostile in his posts.
it is worth a look but would be willing to pay more once they have more drilling results.
note: the number of stocks on sale are great, will post this weekend or soon but some are looking cheap.... have been watching...no need to catch a falling knife....and do not care if I get the lowest price.
thanks
selkirk
selkirk, Thank you for your reply, I truely appreciate & value your knowledge & input on the market.
I did buy this stock at $3.91 & again at $3.62. Would you hold or sell? Thanks, Lor
I did buy this stock at $3.91 & again at $3.62. Would you hold or sell? Thanks, Lor
the stock closed on Monday at 2.70 -.60 18.2%.
Asia and Europe had a brutal sell off, and the US stock futures were real ugly this morning, so Toronto opened down 400 and it only got worse, Toronto loss 604.99 points to close at 12,132.13.
down 4.75% for the day.
LOR I have got stopped out of most of my stocks and the ones I still have (have covered calls on them), though that does not help much when they fall 5% in one day.
anyways would stay away from most base metal stocks until this plays out, I mean TCK.b (TCK US) is now trading below 30 down -4.7%.
FNX and HBM contnue to go down.
with a weak market these juniors are going to find it hard to make gains.. even good news gets sold off...
CVRD is thinking about taking a run at Xstrata, so you would think that maybe CVRD goes down but Xstrata goes up on specualation...last I heard down 3%.
BHP is not bidding for RIO, so RIo falls, however so does BHP.
by the way oil is still 88, but by the way the energy stocks have acted oil is at 70....overeaction, or the market knows the future....
anyways ZINC will be oversupplied in 2008, more of a late 2009 story...copper is similar... and gold after a good run is dropping sharply.
this makes it difficult for base metal stocks and sr. gold companies. for jr. this is a difficult situaition.
these jr. mining companies are like a lottery ticket...you may hit one out of five or ten.
I could never tell you to sell, simply because I do not know the drilling results, is this just like a pencil or do they get more great drill results.
have no idea
however if I were you, probably would own a collection of these jr. stocks. so would try to spread the risk around.
in Canada we have some resource, small capp, precious metal mutual funds.... now normally do not care for the high mer (usually 2-3%) however they often have decent returns, and the risk is spread out....and sometimes you can get a good manager.
or else have a few. and watch them, maybe even paper trade for practice, that is what one old trader told me,
made a great deal on a few, but loss on three more that I researched well.....you learn more from losses.....
Final Thoughts
1. anyways this is risk capital so would only have an amount you can afford to lose
2. would set stops, lower....would be willing to take a bigger loss, on a regualr stock stop would be 5-15% depends, maybe 20%, not often.
3. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. dollar cost average down on penny stocks, I hear of two or three people a year that do this wise move. once you have a positon you have two choices, sell, or hold....never buy more to average down.
4. ask yourself if you loss 50% how would you feel. then sell the amount and keep a position that would let you sleep at night.
finally as I write this the market has had a terrible Jan, and maybe this will be a brutal year, however set your stops, and as you get stopped out build up cash.
many stocks are on sale, and the sale looks like it want to continue for a while, be carefull however great returns can be made after a sharp correction/bear market.
end of novel....lol
by the way maybe I will start a thread on jr. mining companies, many will be washed out after this sell off. maybe a mauch portfolio....most will lose money hopefully some hit.
thanks
selkirk
Asia and Europe had a brutal sell off, and the US stock futures were real ugly this morning, so Toronto opened down 400 and it only got worse, Toronto loss 604.99 points to close at 12,132.13.
down 4.75% for the day.
LOR I have got stopped out of most of my stocks and the ones I still have (have covered calls on them), though that does not help much when they fall 5% in one day.
anyways would stay away from most base metal stocks until this plays out, I mean TCK.b (TCK US) is now trading below 30 down -4.7%.
FNX and HBM contnue to go down.
with a weak market these juniors are going to find it hard to make gains.. even good news gets sold off...
CVRD is thinking about taking a run at Xstrata, so you would think that maybe CVRD goes down but Xstrata goes up on specualation...last I heard down 3%.
BHP is not bidding for RIO, so RIo falls, however so does BHP.
by the way oil is still 88, but by the way the energy stocks have acted oil is at 70....overeaction, or the market knows the future....
anyways ZINC will be oversupplied in 2008, more of a late 2009 story...copper is similar... and gold after a good run is dropping sharply.
this makes it difficult for base metal stocks and sr. gold companies. for jr. this is a difficult situaition.
these jr. mining companies are like a lottery ticket...you may hit one out of five or ten.
I could never tell you to sell, simply because I do not know the drilling results, is this just like a pencil or do they get more great drill results.
have no idea
however if I were you, probably would own a collection of these jr. stocks. so would try to spread the risk around.
in Canada we have some resource, small capp, precious metal mutual funds.... now normally do not care for the high mer (usually 2-3%) however they often have decent returns, and the risk is spread out....and sometimes you can get a good manager.
or else have a few. and watch them, maybe even paper trade for practice, that is what one old trader told me,
made a great deal on a few, but loss on three more that I researched well.....you learn more from losses.....
Final Thoughts
1. anyways this is risk capital so would only have an amount you can afford to lose
2. would set stops, lower....would be willing to take a bigger loss, on a regualr stock stop would be 5-15% depends, maybe 20%, not often.
3. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. dollar cost average down on penny stocks, I hear of two or three people a year that do this wise move. once you have a positon you have two choices, sell, or hold....never buy more to average down.
4. ask yourself if you loss 50% how would you feel. then sell the amount and keep a position that would let you sleep at night.
finally as I write this the market has had a terrible Jan, and maybe this will be a brutal year, however set your stops, and as you get stopped out build up cash.
many stocks are on sale, and the sale looks like it want to continue for a while, be carefull however great returns can be made after a sharp correction/bear market.
end of novel....lol
by the way maybe I will start a thread on jr. mining companies, many will be washed out after this sell off. maybe a mauch portfolio....most will lose money hopefully some hit.
thanks
selkirk
unless the stock market improves especially on resources could see this stock trade down to below $2.
untill news, then it will depend on that.
finally would not have a large position in jr. mining stocks...these are high risk/reward stocks, so does not take much for a chance.
thanks
selkirk
untill news, then it will depend on that.
finally would not have a large position in jr. mining stocks...these are high risk/reward stocks, so does not take much for a chance.
thanks
selkirk
selkirk,
3. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. dollar cost average down on penny stocks, I hear of two or three people a year that do this wise move. once you have a positon you have two choices, sell, or hold....never buy more to average down.
This was a very costly mistake I made last year. I just keep thinking it was an undervalued stock. Everything I read about the stock was good but the price kept dropping and I bought more shares thinking it would rebound, as of today it hasn't and is down 50 cents from when I sold my shares in Dec.
3. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. dollar cost average down on penny stocks, I hear of two or three people a year that do this wise move. once you have a positon you have two choices, sell, or hold....never buy more to average down.
This was a very costly mistake I made last year. I just keep thinking it was an undervalued stock. Everything I read about the stock was good but the price kept dropping and I bought more shares thinking it would rebound, as of today it hasn't and is down 50 cents from when I sold my shares in Dec.
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Here is an interesting post from Agora board. Sure hope he is right! selkirk if you read this an have any thoughts one way or another, I would like to hear them. Thanks
First remember I?m a fiscal conservative, older guy who?s been around and once even was a banker. Still I?ve held Noront shares since the early days of Windfall.
Some forum members bought into Noront at prices over $6 and probably are upset and wondering how they could have made such a mistake. Well was it?
Windfall, 4.6 meters of ore grading 52 oz per tonne with value per cubic meter block of ore with value of around $45,000 which makes a tonne of ore from DE 1 hole 5 look like chump change. Noront are poking a ramp down and will extract at least some of this ore and turn it into cash. Say they take out 4 meter width of ore and only 50 meters in length = 200 cubic meters or $9 million dollars. Want to bet there isn?t more?
You know why they didn?t bother spending, at this time, to punch a lot more drill holes which were recommended. It?s because that drill cost is better spent on DE 1 and can be done later after they clean out the first rich deposit.
McFauld Lake, DE 1 and Hole 5 with 117 Meters of unheard of Nickel,Copper,Platinum Group and Rhodium. Numerous other rich holes as well as numerous targets and huge new claims registered.
Now feel better? It is not surprising in the least that Noront share price exploded. The sharp decline is due to short memory and terrible US meltdown that?s for now receded
But is Noront highly Speculative or is it an investment?
There little doubt Noront will not, within 9 months, be valued at less than $10 a share.
So what needs to happen before we see that value? First continued drilling at DE 1 to allow for inferred resource calculations. This will prove up, in my estimation, at least 7 million tones of rich ore body. Second get the bulk sample and cash in the bank from Windfall and continue to calculate resources there. Third find either extension to DE 1 or DE 2, 3 etc..
What?s the probability of the above three things happening within 9 months? Windfall is a slam dunk, DE 1 as well, DE 2 given proximity to DE 1 has to be better than 50% and deposits on huge property under JV and pending JV is almost certain to identify resources.
So what do your value these things at on a per share basis? Me, remember conservative eh! Windfall at $1.50 , DE 1 (after resource calculation) $6.00 and DE 2 plus JV?s at $3 per share to arrive at $10.50.
What?s a guy or girl to do, invest in shares at under $7 and hold for 9 months to get return of over $10? Now note I?ve put no value at all on Blue Sky. Blue Sky is hitting another 52 oz per tonne of gold or 114 meters similar to Hole 5 at DE 1 and Blue Sky is another $10 or $20 a share.
First remember I?m a fiscal conservative, older guy who?s been around and once even was a banker. Still I?ve held Noront shares since the early days of Windfall.
Some forum members bought into Noront at prices over $6 and probably are upset and wondering how they could have made such a mistake. Well was it?
Windfall, 4.6 meters of ore grading 52 oz per tonne with value per cubic meter block of ore with value of around $45,000 which makes a tonne of ore from DE 1 hole 5 look like chump change. Noront are poking a ramp down and will extract at least some of this ore and turn it into cash. Say they take out 4 meter width of ore and only 50 meters in length = 200 cubic meters or $9 million dollars. Want to bet there isn?t more?
You know why they didn?t bother spending, at this time, to punch a lot more drill holes which were recommended. It?s because that drill cost is better spent on DE 1 and can be done later after they clean out the first rich deposit.
McFauld Lake, DE 1 and Hole 5 with 117 Meters of unheard of Nickel,Copper,Platinum Group and Rhodium. Numerous other rich holes as well as numerous targets and huge new claims registered.
Now feel better? It is not surprising in the least that Noront share price exploded. The sharp decline is due to short memory and terrible US meltdown that?s for now receded
But is Noront highly Speculative or is it an investment?
There little doubt Noront will not, within 9 months, be valued at less than $10 a share.
So what needs to happen before we see that value? First continued drilling at DE 1 to allow for inferred resource calculations. This will prove up, in my estimation, at least 7 million tones of rich ore body. Second get the bulk sample and cash in the bank from Windfall and continue to calculate resources there. Third find either extension to DE 1 or DE 2, 3 etc..
What?s the probability of the above three things happening within 9 months? Windfall is a slam dunk, DE 1 as well, DE 2 given proximity to DE 1 has to be better than 50% and deposits on huge property under JV and pending JV is almost certain to identify resources.
So what do your value these things at on a per share basis? Me, remember conservative eh! Windfall at $1.50 , DE 1 (after resource calculation) $6.00 and DE 2 plus JV?s at $3 per share to arrive at $10.50.
What?s a guy or girl to do, invest in shares at under $7 and hold for 9 months to get return of over $10? Now note I?ve put no value at all on Blue Sky. Blue Sky is hitting another 52 oz per tonne of gold or 114 meters similar to Hole 5 at DE 1 and Blue Sky is another $10 or $20 a share.
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Lor if I was the company I would punch more holes "You know why they didn?t bother spending, at this time, to punch a lot more drill holes which were recommended. It?s because that drill cost is better spent on DE 1 and can be done later after they clean out the first rich deposit."
we are giving Noront a 400 million market cap, now when this first hit they talked about how easy it would be to mine this deposit.
however nothing is cheap or (that ) easy when it comes to mining. metals and energy (materials) are at high levels, skilled labour can almost name their price. I had a neighbour who was a mine manager, decided to leave a become a Alberta Rancher (his wife was going to teach) and it was his home.
He made a great deal of money but the problems in any mining operation can be numerous. I have a good friend who is a miner, most of the time any project come in over budget.
by the time you reach the stage to mine the project wonder what the costs would be?
He believes Noront will be able to mine these holes and generate cash enough to pay for exploration.... that is very very rare. most jr. have to raise more cash....
If I were them would drill more holes, to prove if it is a project close to voisey bay or a pencil....a few holes of high mineralization.
how much cash do they have and how long will it last.
at current prices it is a speculation, however most jr. are...... Voisey Bay was the same, it was the potential.
now at $10 a share and a market cap of over 1.18 billion they will need a large mine, and a profitable one at that.; it might not be bad to drill some what they believe are rich holes and to try drive the price up before financing.
finally is a sr. company ready to step in and help develop the property and cover the costs.... not many (very, very few) jr. have the skills, and resources to bring a deposit into a mine.
the poster made some good points, however they will have to drill more holes and enlarge the resource. also there are costs to get this out...which was not covered in great detail.
he is following closely....it is a spec though, not a bad one, however a spec.
thanks
selkirk
we are giving Noront a 400 million market cap, now when this first hit they talked about how easy it would be to mine this deposit.
however nothing is cheap or (that ) easy when it comes to mining. metals and energy (materials) are at high levels, skilled labour can almost name their price. I had a neighbour who was a mine manager, decided to leave a become a Alberta Rancher (his wife was going to teach) and it was his home.
He made a great deal of money but the problems in any mining operation can be numerous. I have a good friend who is a miner, most of the time any project come in over budget.
by the time you reach the stage to mine the project wonder what the costs would be?
He believes Noront will be able to mine these holes and generate cash enough to pay for exploration.... that is very very rare. most jr. have to raise more cash....
If I were them would drill more holes, to prove if it is a project close to voisey bay or a pencil....a few holes of high mineralization.
how much cash do they have and how long will it last.
at current prices it is a speculation, however most jr. are...... Voisey Bay was the same, it was the potential.
now at $10 a share and a market cap of over 1.18 billion they will need a large mine, and a profitable one at that.; it might not be bad to drill some what they believe are rich holes and to try drive the price up before financing.
finally is a sr. company ready to step in and help develop the property and cover the costs.... not many (very, very few) jr. have the skills, and resources to bring a deposit into a mine.
the poster made some good points, however they will have to drill more holes and enlarge the resource. also there are costs to get this out...which was not covered in great detail.
he is following closely....it is a spec though, not a bad one, however a spec.
thanks
selkirk
selkirk Noront has some great news out today.
TORONTO, ONTARIO -(Jan. 28, 2008) - Noront Resources Ltd. ("Noront") (TSX VENTURE: NOT) is pleased to announce the receipt of assays on hole NOT-07-27 and 29 on its 100%-owned Eagle One occurrence within Noront's Double Eagle Project in the McFauld's Lake Area of northeastern Ontario. "The results from hole 27 are the highest grade encountered to date. This hole is quite significant as it contains high gold values within the massive sulphide zone not seen in earlier holes, and it extends the high grade massive sulphide zone to depth on this section. Results include thirty-five meters of massive sulphide averaging 7.91% nickel, 3.45% copper, 1.66 grams per tonne platinum and 12.79 grams per tonne palladium, along with 3.87 grams per tonne gold and 9.27 grams per tonne silver. Our immediate drill objectives are to complete infill drilling as required for resource estimate calculations and to begin drill testing several high-priority geophysical targets within the Double Eagle project area" states Richard Nemis, President and CEO of Noront.
TORONTO, ONTARIO -(Jan. 28, 2008) - Noront Resources Ltd. ("Noront") (TSX VENTURE: NOT) is pleased to announce the receipt of assays on hole NOT-07-27 and 29 on its 100%-owned Eagle One occurrence within Noront's Double Eagle Project in the McFauld's Lake Area of northeastern Ontario. "The results from hole 27 are the highest grade encountered to date. This hole is quite significant as it contains high gold values within the massive sulphide zone not seen in earlier holes, and it extends the high grade massive sulphide zone to depth on this section. Results include thirty-five meters of massive sulphide averaging 7.91% nickel, 3.45% copper, 1.66 grams per tonne platinum and 12.79 grams per tonne palladium, along with 3.87 grams per tonne gold and 9.27 grams per tonne silver. Our immediate drill objectives are to complete infill drilling as required for resource estimate calculations and to begin drill testing several high-priority geophysical targets within the Double Eagle project area" states Richard Nemis, President and CEO of Noront.
LOR would agree the results were very good, espcially the amount of gold found, and expanding the resource at depths.
if the news continues this good then the stock will go higher....what also thought was good news is that they are adding two more drills for a total of three. this should give the market plenty of the news throughout the year.
may actually purchase a small amount of this spec, it they continue with the good news, may continue on its run, now at 4.14.
will probably purchase small amounts of 3-4 other companies (with gold focus) to try my luck. stops will be set around 25%-30%.
maybe can make a quick 20% or more, this is still a spec, for now a bet that the next set of drill results will be good.
thanks
selkirk
if the news continues this good then the stock will go higher....what also thought was good news is that they are adding two more drills for a total of three. this should give the market plenty of the news throughout the year.
may actually purchase a small amount of this spec, it they continue with the good news, may continue on its run, now at 4.14.
will probably purchase small amounts of 3-4 other companies (with gold focus) to try my luck. stops will be set around 25%-30%.
maybe can make a quick 20% or more, this is still a spec, for now a bet that the next set of drill results will be good.
thanks
selkirk
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going to put in an order for 1000 at 3.25 cdn. for this week. may not get it, but will try next week.
thanks
selkirk
thanks
selkirk
selkirk, I would like to see you own this stock BUT I don't want to see the price back in the $3. range. I also own shares of BMK but more of NOT. I would be intrested in knowing what other companies you are thinking of buying. Thanks, Lor
selkirk, This was posted on agoracom board today. This goes well with your thinking of owning a couple of the mining companies in the McFauld's Lake Area.
Spoke to Dick Nemis
Posted by: Polylabel on January 29, 2008 01:15PM
But it was a short call as he's determined to get out for lunch today which is unusual for him.
Dick is still bouncing and happy about giving us the 'fantastic' news release. He laughed when I said next it better be double digit but said if I want it he could cut out a few inches from the core and it would assay over 20%.
Dick remains absolutely positive that others in the Ring of Fire will find deposits. When I said that, in my opinion, it most probable only close anomalities would turn up the grades he's finding he said, we feel sure as rich or richer deposits are on our claims. Looking for DE 2 now.
Not much in the way of specific information given except I confirmed that a drill goes through 50 meters in a day, that's 25 meters a shift. So a 200 meter drill hole is going to take 4 days plus setup if it's being moved.
Spoke to Dick Nemis
Posted by: Polylabel on January 29, 2008 01:15PM
But it was a short call as he's determined to get out for lunch today which is unusual for him.
Dick is still bouncing and happy about giving us the 'fantastic' news release. He laughed when I said next it better be double digit but said if I want it he could cut out a few inches from the core and it would assay over 20%.
Dick remains absolutely positive that others in the Ring of Fire will find deposits. When I said that, in my opinion, it most probable only close anomalities would turn up the grades he's finding he said, we feel sure as rich or richer deposits are on our claims. Looking for DE 2 now.
Not much in the way of specific information given except I confirmed that a drill goes through 50 meters in a day, that's 25 meters a shift. So a 200 meter drill hole is going to take 4 days plus setup if it's being moved.
selkirk, Alot of talk going around about big news coming out on NOSOF this week, plus 3 or 4 analyst out Thur. & Fri. with buy rating. Are you hearing anything from your mining friend or anyone else up your way? This is the most exciting stock I have ever owned and hopefully the most financially rewarding stock I've owned, time will tell!
LOR have not heard much, of the two people I know one has questions and the other actually thinks it is a decent specualtion.
see that they did a financing, for 26 million (issued 6.5 million shares and also half warrants (one warrant good for one share (purchase at $5).
will have to find out their cash positon and how long the money will last.... it is probably a good idea to cash up, the worse thing is a jr. without any money.... and in this climate you never know if you can raise money.
thanks
selkirk
see that they did a financing, for 26 million (issued 6.5 million shares and also half warrants (one warrant good for one share (purchase at $5).
will have to find out their cash positon and how long the money will last.... it is probably a good idea to cash up, the worse thing is a jr. without any money.... and in this climate you never know if you can raise money.
thanks
selkirk
selkirk, This info was posted on the agora board. What would you & your mining friends think a large herd of elephants would do for this stock price. Thanks, Lor
I returned a short while ago from a meeting with Mr. William White, Tim Watson and Ryan McConaghy of IBK. I had phoned them yesterday to ask if they had access to any spare tickets to the Ring of Fire Luncheon on March 6th and they invited me to their office to have a chat and ?see if I was worthy?. LOL just kidding they were very kind and it was a very interesting experience. The board room has an amazing display of gems from various mines around the world and core samples etc.
I did not take notes the whole time we were talking and so I will try to remember many of the things discussed however I may have to tell you more as my memory gets jogged over the next few days.
Most important points:
- wait until you see the names on the PP that was just done ? the validity/credibility all those things will be large ? no, they did not tell me the names I have to wait for the NR today the same as you
- the map that is posted is already out of date which is great news much staking has been done since it was printed
- there are literally hundreds of targets from the airborne surveys ? someone earlier this week suggested an elephant lying on his back with his legs in the air ? I shared this analogy with these gentlemen and Mr. White laughed and said ? yes, only it is an entire herd of elephants, a very large herd? regarding the 8 anomalies in a row that are visible he referred to as being like a pearl necklace? oh great now we have pearls too LOL
-their belief is that it was a magma flow, from the west with the east side of the ?ring? being the end/edge of the flow ? magma inside/vms around the edges and diamonds on the outside [please remember this is their opinion and I am only quoting from a couple of scrawled notes] ? let?s see if I can remember the rest correctly? the magma flowed from the west and various columns/pods/elephant legs came up through the rocks, leaving the large body underground as many here have thought ***again*** this is their opinion it is not gospel and as someone pointed out to me many theories abound still about Sudbury, what caused it etc and many people have done conflicting Phds on the subject so this is still early, way early, and I am sure there will be discussions for years about it ? the main thing everyone seems to have in common is they believe it is huge?..
-there is a lot of staking going on to the west, as evidenced by the new maps which also make quite clear an easterly flow [pw take back that joke you made at my expense about the shape of it all?. ]
-I asked about the sideplays? Without naming names lets just say that the companies they have chosen to be invested with are the ones with the largest land ownership, I think you can all figure out for yourselves who that is. IBK is working with the JV partners to help them with their financing also. Another interesting point that I was told was that if the claims that the JVs have been given do not hold valid targets they will be replaced with an equal numbers of claims that do in another location ? I think this is just amazing and speaks again so highly of Mr. Nemis.
So just to reconfirm ? Mr. Nemis will be presenting along with Mr. White at the luncheon and also Noront will be at PDAC and IBK is going to contact PDAC to find out why it is not showing on the website. IBK has graciously made me a guest of theirs at the luncheon and I will take notes and report back to you all ? if Agoracom is going to tape it, that would be even better.
If I remember anything else I will put it up and if I have made any errors in what I have said then I hope that someone will correct me.
QQ
I returned a short while ago from a meeting with Mr. William White, Tim Watson and Ryan McConaghy of IBK. I had phoned them yesterday to ask if they had access to any spare tickets to the Ring of Fire Luncheon on March 6th and they invited me to their office to have a chat and ?see if I was worthy?. LOL just kidding they were very kind and it was a very interesting experience. The board room has an amazing display of gems from various mines around the world and core samples etc.
I did not take notes the whole time we were talking and so I will try to remember many of the things discussed however I may have to tell you more as my memory gets jogged over the next few days.
Most important points:
- wait until you see the names on the PP that was just done ? the validity/credibility all those things will be large ? no, they did not tell me the names I have to wait for the NR today the same as you
- the map that is posted is already out of date which is great news much staking has been done since it was printed
- there are literally hundreds of targets from the airborne surveys ? someone earlier this week suggested an elephant lying on his back with his legs in the air ? I shared this analogy with these gentlemen and Mr. White laughed and said ? yes, only it is an entire herd of elephants, a very large herd? regarding the 8 anomalies in a row that are visible he referred to as being like a pearl necklace? oh great now we have pearls too LOL
-their belief is that it was a magma flow, from the west with the east side of the ?ring? being the end/edge of the flow ? magma inside/vms around the edges and diamonds on the outside [please remember this is their opinion and I am only quoting from a couple of scrawled notes] ? let?s see if I can remember the rest correctly? the magma flowed from the west and various columns/pods/elephant legs came up through the rocks, leaving the large body underground as many here have thought ***again*** this is their opinion it is not gospel and as someone pointed out to me many theories abound still about Sudbury, what caused it etc and many people have done conflicting Phds on the subject so this is still early, way early, and I am sure there will be discussions for years about it ? the main thing everyone seems to have in common is they believe it is huge?..
-there is a lot of staking going on to the west, as evidenced by the new maps which also make quite clear an easterly flow [pw take back that joke you made at my expense about the shape of it all?. ]
-I asked about the sideplays? Without naming names lets just say that the companies they have chosen to be invested with are the ones with the largest land ownership, I think you can all figure out for yourselves who that is. IBK is working with the JV partners to help them with their financing also. Another interesting point that I was told was that if the claims that the JVs have been given do not hold valid targets they will be replaced with an equal numbers of claims that do in another location ? I think this is just amazing and speaks again so highly of Mr. Nemis.
So just to reconfirm ? Mr. Nemis will be presenting along with Mr. White at the luncheon and also Noront will be at PDAC and IBK is going to contact PDAC to find out why it is not showing on the website. IBK has graciously made me a guest of theirs at the luncheon and I will take notes and report back to you all ? if Agoracom is going to tape it, that would be even better.
If I remember anything else I will put it up and if I have made any errors in what I have said then I hope that someone will correct me.
LOR should state I bought a small position, (a big 1000 shares)..lol, have a good amount of cash, from stops trying to put some to use.
bought a few other specs but not many.
for me it is a small trade because it is behaving well., perphaps should have bought more however noth sure how the next drill results will be.....do have a much larger order at 3.25 however probably will cancel it......
the company is doing many things correct, I mean with three drills we will know soon, news flow. also I guess what is a good sign is they can raise 26 million in this market. some of the names who bought in are interesting however the fact that they can raise money is the main point.
it is wise to build up and (tell the story) hype it, they will need more money, and tell their story is important to increase the share price. that and drill results.
" there are literally hundreds of targets from the airborne surveys"
I do not get excited over this, until their is drilling.
most jr. have the same statements, and airborne surveys and annomolies are....know shortsellers in jr. mining stocks and they can tell you what some companies have counted as annoloies.
what they hope is their (I guess pencils, legs, and at depths large deposits (elephants).
for me it is a small trade 50% and the other half lottery ticket. though I started investing in jr. mining stocks, now a far more conservative investor.....ie. stocks, options..... well not to conservative.
have to wait for the drill results, the only negative for me is the high number of shares, however this is a small concern if they hit.
will try to find out their cash positon, how long it will last. exploration can be very expensive so they will probably have to issue more shares.
would like to know how much more and when?
it is still a spec at this stage.
thanks
selkirk
bought a few other specs but not many.
for me it is a small trade because it is behaving well., perphaps should have bought more however noth sure how the next drill results will be.....do have a much larger order at 3.25 however probably will cancel it......
the company is doing many things correct, I mean with three drills we will know soon, news flow. also I guess what is a good sign is they can raise 26 million in this market. some of the names who bought in are interesting however the fact that they can raise money is the main point.
it is wise to build up and (tell the story) hype it, they will need more money, and tell their story is important to increase the share price. that and drill results.
" there are literally hundreds of targets from the airborne surveys"
I do not get excited over this, until their is drilling.
most jr. have the same statements, and airborne surveys and annomolies are....know shortsellers in jr. mining stocks and they can tell you what some companies have counted as annoloies.
what they hope is their (I guess pencils, legs, and at depths large deposits (elephants).
for me it is a small trade 50% and the other half lottery ticket. though I started investing in jr. mining stocks, now a far more conservative investor.....ie. stocks, options..... well not to conservative.
have to wait for the drill results, the only negative for me is the high number of shares, however this is a small concern if they hit.
will try to find out their cash positon, how long it will last. exploration can be very expensive so they will probably have to issue more shares.
would like to know how much more and when?
it is still a spec at this stage.
thanks
selkirk
selkirk glad to see you own this stock. Did you buy into BMK? This was posted on the NOT board at agora, if true we should see a nice spike in the price when the news release comes out.
Im being told again... that they are drilling
a hot anominaly that is located benieth (under)
DE1, a deep hole going to it now and they cant
determin wether its connected to DE1 yet, my rummor
mill also spills out 43-101 is looking like 5m to 7m tons
of $1000 ore. with all the precious metals in.
For what its worth
Im being told again... that they are drilling
a hot anominaly that is located benieth (under)
DE1, a deep hole going to it now and they cant
determin wether its connected to DE1 yet, my rummor
mill also spills out 43-101 is looking like 5m to 7m tons
of $1000 ore. with all the precious metals in.
For what its worth
selkirk, Here is info on Noront cash position I found on the agora board. I would be interested in knowing what your thoughts are on this info. Thanks, Lor
Although I suspect that you are correct that NOT will have to dilute share price further, maybe, just maybe, we might not have to.
First, as stated in the most recent MD&A, Cash and equivalent on hand as of October 31/07 was $26MM. Assume a burn rate per month of $2.0MM for November/07-Janaury/08. Therefore, we have approx. $20MM at the start of February, 2008. (Note, my response from Noront Management via Agoracom was that the monthly burn rate was expected to be $2.5MM beginning in February 2008 for both Windfall and DE)
With the above in mind we have:
$20,000,000.00 Cash start February, 2008
$ 4,408,500.00 Exercise of warrants (1)
$ 4,062,500.00 Exercise of options (2)
$26,000,000.00 Private Placemet
$16,250,000.00 Exercise of warrants(3)
$ 2,094,000.00 JV Payments Yr.1
$72,815,000.00 2008 Cash
Again, from the most recent MD&A:
1) Warrants outstanding with weighted average exercise price of $0.75 expiring in 2008
2) Options outstanding with a weighted average exercise price of $1.30 expiring between 2008 and 2012.
3) Warrants as per the most recent Private Placement with an acceleration clause of share price trading above $6.00 for 10 consecutive days.
Note: More capital potential with additional JV deals.
With a burn rate of $2.5MM per month, the above would equte to 29.13 months of additional exploration. Quiz, if we use your model that we wil require an additional 200 holes to prove a world class deposit (as you stated, based upon results to date), we will require approximately 24 additional months of drilling. (September/07 through mid-December we drilled 29 holes or an average of 2 per week). Keep in mind that at that time we were using a couple of tired rigs which were prone to breakdown and now we have Johnny and June humming. Also, if I recollect correctly, we should expect additional drills come March which will drastically reduce our timeline.
With respect to the above, a few assumptions have been made but IMO, all are reasonable. The 10 consecuative days above $6.00 should happen and if so, another large chunk of change will be added to the coffers - obviously, this will have the greatest positive cash implication (short of another PP) Also, I am assuming that all options will be exercised but if only a percentage, it will not have a large impact to the above numbers.
I know that around the time of the most recent Private Placement, there was some discussion with respect to the Fully Diluted number of shares.
Based upon the above, here is what I ascertain are the fully diluted number of shares:
118478582 As per MD&A
2939000 1/2 warrants expiring in 2008
3125000 Outstanding options
6500000 Recent PP
3250000 Recent PP warrants
134292582 Total F/D
So quiz, utilizing your model and the possible scenario that we will not require any additional dilution, my valuation is $58.08 per share.
Comments always welcome.
GLTA
Although I suspect that you are correct that NOT will have to dilute share price further, maybe, just maybe, we might not have to.
First, as stated in the most recent MD&A, Cash and equivalent on hand as of October 31/07 was $26MM. Assume a burn rate per month of $2.0MM for November/07-Janaury/08. Therefore, we have approx. $20MM at the start of February, 2008. (Note, my response from Noront Management via Agoracom was that the monthly burn rate was expected to be $2.5MM beginning in February 2008 for both Windfall and DE)
With the above in mind we have:
$20,000,000.00 Cash start February, 2008
$ 4,408,500.00 Exercise of warrants (1)
$ 4,062,500.00 Exercise of options (2)
$26,000,000.00 Private Placemet
$16,250,000.00 Exercise of warrants(3)
$ 2,094,000.00 JV Payments Yr.1
$72,815,000.00 2008 Cash
Again, from the most recent MD&A:
1) Warrants outstanding with weighted average exercise price of $0.75 expiring in 2008
2) Options outstanding with a weighted average exercise price of $1.30 expiring between 2008 and 2012.
3) Warrants as per the most recent Private Placement with an acceleration clause of share price trading above $6.00 for 10 consecutive days.
Note: More capital potential with additional JV deals.
With a burn rate of $2.5MM per month, the above would equte to 29.13 months of additional exploration. Quiz, if we use your model that we wil require an additional 200 holes to prove a world class deposit (as you stated, based upon results to date), we will require approximately 24 additional months of drilling. (September/07 through mid-December we drilled 29 holes or an average of 2 per week). Keep in mind that at that time we were using a couple of tired rigs which were prone to breakdown and now we have Johnny and June humming. Also, if I recollect correctly, we should expect additional drills come March which will drastically reduce our timeline.
With respect to the above, a few assumptions have been made but IMO, all are reasonable. The 10 consecuative days above $6.00 should happen and if so, another large chunk of change will be added to the coffers - obviously, this will have the greatest positive cash implication (short of another PP) Also, I am assuming that all options will be exercised but if only a percentage, it will not have a large impact to the above numbers.
I know that around the time of the most recent Private Placement, there was some discussion with respect to the Fully Diluted number of shares.
Based upon the above, here is what I ascertain are the fully diluted number of shares:
118478582 As per MD&A
2939000 1/2 warrants expiring in 2008
3125000 Outstanding options
6500000 Recent PP
3250000 Recent PP warrants
134292582 Total F/D
So quiz, utilizing your model and the possible scenario that we will not require any additional dilution, my valuation is $58.08 per share.
Comments always welcome.
GLTA
Lor do not own BMK at this time, MacDonald Mines Exploration.
good information on the cash positon, do not agree with the assumption that $6 warrants will be excercised....if the drill results continue to be good, however should not assume...
the rest seem solid,and it is always good for a jr. to be cashed up....never know when they cannot tap the markets.
the burn rate seems high however there is three drills going on the property.
believe more shares will have to be issued, depends on the project and how good it is, however even a large partner will want the partner to share some of the costs, after an earn in....
the writer posted many good facts, however his target is $58.08 (almost fell off my chair.)
he is a believer, wow. that put the stock at a market cap of over 7 billion..wow.
not many companies when they are producing can get that kind of respect....
for instance HBM (Hudbay on Toronto ) has a market cap of 2.39 billion cdn. they trade under 7PE.
now HBM is a base metal mine and so has a lower valuation than a gold mining company. aslo reserve life is short, and the market would like them to buy more properties, companies.
by the way at 18cdn. the stock is a hold....went down to 13.70 during jan that was just tooo cheap considering amount of cash they have on hand.
FNX mining, and HBM would both be holds. actually picked HBM in a year end predctions thread $4.50, of coarse picked two others that lost.....
thanks
selkirk
good information on the cash positon, do not agree with the assumption that $6 warrants will be excercised....if the drill results continue to be good, however should not assume...
the rest seem solid,and it is always good for a jr. to be cashed up....never know when they cannot tap the markets.
the burn rate seems high however there is three drills going on the property.
believe more shares will have to be issued, depends on the project and how good it is, however even a large partner will want the partner to share some of the costs, after an earn in....
the writer posted many good facts, however his target is $58.08 (almost fell off my chair.)
he is a believer, wow. that put the stock at a market cap of over 7 billion..wow.
not many companies when they are producing can get that kind of respect....
for instance HBM (Hudbay on Toronto ) has a market cap of 2.39 billion cdn. they trade under 7PE.
now HBM is a base metal mine and so has a lower valuation than a gold mining company. aslo reserve life is short, and the market would like them to buy more properties, companies.
by the way at 18cdn. the stock is a hold....went down to 13.70 during jan that was just tooo cheap considering amount of cash they have on hand.
FNX mining, and HBM would both be holds. actually picked HBM in a year end predctions thread $4.50, of coarse picked two others that lost.....
thanks
selkirk
