Senior PGA Championship
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- Start date
Outrights:
David Edwards(33/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Tom Watson(16/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Jerry Pate(50/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Gil Morgan (33/1) e.w. @ BetFred
- - The event this week for which my slate of picks was most clearly formed with thoughts and angles as to why these players are in and others are not . . . I've added Morgan on the strength of hearing a strong shout, but the work Edwards surely put in around Oak Tree since the first of the year to prepare for his Champions career has more of the contours of a man on a mission to my thinking and visualization - and every piece suits from a premium on ball striking to local knowledge in the hands of a patient course management specialist to an unusual opportunity for rolling and holing putts with some flair . . . The Dye design is more funky and penal than classic than I would prefer for nurturing a sublime performance from Watson, but the state of his game is pretty evident . . . During the lousy weather in California, Pate was raving about the state of his game and moaning about having to play in poor weather; I believed him and backed him in 2 of 4 spots thereafter with some waning faith, as his performances have been solid but lacking in any spark, but here he gets a shot at a meaningful moment he kind of let get away last year.
GL
David Edwards(33/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Tom Watson(16/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Jerry Pate(50/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Gil Morgan (33/1) e.w. @ BetFred
- - The event this week for which my slate of picks was most clearly formed with thoughts and angles as to why these players are in and others are not . . . I've added Morgan on the strength of hearing a strong shout, but the work Edwards surely put in around Oak Tree since the first of the year to prepare for his Champions career has more of the contours of a man on a mission to my thinking and visualization - and every piece suits from a premium on ball striking to local knowledge in the hands of a patient course management specialist to an unusual opportunity for rolling and holing putts with some flair . . . The Dye design is more funky and penal than classic than I would prefer for nurturing a sublime performance from Watson, but the state of his game is pretty evident . . . During the lousy weather in California, Pate was raving about the state of his game and moaning about having to play in poor weather; I believed him and backed him in 2 of 4 spots thereafter with some waning faith, as his performances have been solid but lacking in any spark, but here he gets a shot at a meaningful moment he kind of let get away last year.
GL
Outright plays (total stake per play: 2pts)
Jay Haas to win 10/1 e.w. @ William Hill
With Roberts struggling - he had his first-ever putting lesson at the Boeing Championship earlier this month - Haas looks like the top player on this Tour again. He has shown his streakiness on the Champions Tour previously and it has been evident again this year, though now in a positive frame with wins in his last two events on this Tour and a very impressive 22nd place finish in the Wachovia Championship on the PGA Tour last time out. Buoyed by those wins and a strong family showing at Quail Hollow, he is the player who deserves favouritism this week.
Brad Bryant to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and William Hill
A large price for a player who next-ranked behind Roberts and Haas in the Money Leaders and Charles Schwab Cup Points tables. Even in terms of scoring average, he ranks 4th so on that basis alone he shouldn't be at these odds. And his recent form is much better than his current-year averages suggest: in his last five starts, he has won twice and finished no worse than 11th. That form is good enough to win this week.
David Edwards to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
There are four members of the "Oak Tree Gang" - Gil Morgan, David Edwards, Doug Tewell and Mark Hayes - and with this event being played on Oak Tree, they should have a considerable edge over the rest of the field. But with Gil Morgan stating "I just don't play enough to to feel like I've a got a real big home-court advantage", it is Edwards who gets the nod out of this quartet. He has only been old enough to play on this Tour for a month and has finished 4th, 3rd and 14th in his three starts, so he can certainly compete with the more established players. And this week he can use home advantage to good effect, whereas his rookie status leads to a lack of course knowledge in normal Tour events. When the PGA Championship came to Oak Tree in 1988, it was Edwards who performed best of the "Oak Tree Gang": he finished 25th, whereas Tewell was 70th, Morgan missed the cut and Hayes didn't qualify. There is a very good chance that he will again finish top of this group.
Jay Haas to win 10/1 e.w. @ William Hill
With Roberts struggling - he had his first-ever putting lesson at the Boeing Championship earlier this month - Haas looks like the top player on this Tour again. He has shown his streakiness on the Champions Tour previously and it has been evident again this year, though now in a positive frame with wins in his last two events on this Tour and a very impressive 22nd place finish in the Wachovia Championship on the PGA Tour last time out. Buoyed by those wins and a strong family showing at Quail Hollow, he is the player who deserves favouritism this week.
Brad Bryant to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and William Hill
A large price for a player who next-ranked behind Roberts and Haas in the Money Leaders and Charles Schwab Cup Points tables. Even in terms of scoring average, he ranks 4th so on that basis alone he shouldn't be at these odds. And his recent form is much better than his current-year averages suggest: in his last five starts, he has won twice and finished no worse than 11th. That form is good enough to win this week.
David Edwards to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
There are four members of the "Oak Tree Gang" - Gil Morgan, David Edwards, Doug Tewell and Mark Hayes - and with this event being played on Oak Tree, they should have a considerable edge over the rest of the field. But with Gil Morgan stating "I just don't play enough to to feel like I've a got a real big home-court advantage", it is Edwards who gets the nod out of this quartet. He has only been old enough to play on this Tour for a month and has finished 4th, 3rd and 14th in his three starts, so he can certainly compete with the more established players. And this week he can use home advantage to good effect, whereas his rookie status leads to a lack of course knowledge in normal Tour events. When the PGA Championship came to Oak Tree in 1988, it was Edwards who performed best of the "Oak Tree Gang": he finished 25th, whereas Tewell was 70th, Morgan missed the cut and Hayes didn't qualify. There is a very good chance that he will again finish top of this group.
Matchup plays (stake per play: 2pts)
Mark McNulty to beat Morris Hatalsky -105 @ Pinnacle
It has been a disappointing season for McNulty, but barring his 56th place finish in the Boeing Championship last time out, he has still been very consistent even though winless in 2006. And it has been that consistency which sees him hold a 6-3-0 h2h record against Hatalsky this season and the only time that he has failed to finish ahead of Hatalsky in their last five common events was in the Boeing Championship. Unless he plays so poorly again, he should prevail once more in this matchup.
(also available at Olympic)
Gil Morgan to beat Mark James -110 @ Stan James
Morgan was discounted for the outrights as compared to fellow home player, David Edwards, he hadn't put in the practice this year around this course. And at the age of 59, he is finding it increasingly difficult to win on this Tour, but that doesn't mean that should be discounted for the matchups as his six top-15 finishes from ten starts this year testify. James is capable of winning this week, but is much less consistent and consistently trails Morgan in the h2h stats. And then there is Morgan's home advantage. He may have played down his knowledge of the course, but there is nothing like a home crowd and, in particular, there is nothing like playing in a tournament and being able to stay at home rather than a hotel.
Gil Morgan to beat Eduardo Romero -102 @ Pinnacle
On sheer ability, Romero should be a very strong contender for this title, but he is clearly not ready to fully commit to this Tour. He has played only one event so far, the Puerta Vallarta Blue Agave Golf Classic, and he finished six shots behind Morgan and instead of preparing for this event, he has played on the European Tour in each of the last three weeks, missing the cut every time. If such a performance were not demoralising enough, he shot 80-80 in the Irish Open last week in awful conditions, which would have done his confidence and his game no good at all. Hardly the best preparation for this event, so it is certainly very easy to side with the home town player.
Mark McNulty to beat Morris Hatalsky -105 @ Pinnacle
It has been a disappointing season for McNulty, but barring his 56th place finish in the Boeing Championship last time out, he has still been very consistent even though winless in 2006. And it has been that consistency which sees him hold a 6-3-0 h2h record against Hatalsky this season and the only time that he has failed to finish ahead of Hatalsky in their last five common events was in the Boeing Championship. Unless he plays so poorly again, he should prevail once more in this matchup.
(also available at Olympic)
Gil Morgan to beat Mark James -110 @ Stan James
Morgan was discounted for the outrights as compared to fellow home player, David Edwards, he hadn't put in the practice this year around this course. And at the age of 59, he is finding it increasingly difficult to win on this Tour, but that doesn't mean that should be discounted for the matchups as his six top-15 finishes from ten starts this year testify. James is capable of winning this week, but is much less consistent and consistently trails Morgan in the h2h stats. And then there is Morgan's home advantage. He may have played down his knowledge of the course, but there is nothing like a home crowd and, in particular, there is nothing like playing in a tournament and being able to stay at home rather than a hotel.
Gil Morgan to beat Eduardo Romero -102 @ Pinnacle
On sheer ability, Romero should be a very strong contender for this title, but he is clearly not ready to fully commit to this Tour. He has played only one event so far, the Puerta Vallarta Blue Agave Golf Classic, and he finished six shots behind Morgan and instead of preparing for this event, he has played on the European Tour in each of the last three weeks, missing the cut every time. If such a performance were not demoralising enough, he shot 80-80 in the Irish Open last week in awful conditions, which would have done his confidence and his game no good at all. Hardly the best preparation for this event, so it is certainly very easy to side with the home town player.
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +17.75pts
Haas 1st
Bryant 2nd
Edwards 14th
Pretty good event when two of your selections contest the playoff and the third selection threatened to sneak a top-5 finish for most of the week. Just a pity that the bigger-priced selection three-putted the last playoff hole to surrender a very good opportunity to win just a few minutes earlier.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-0; +6.00pts
McNulty/Hatalsky WON by 5
Morgan/James WON by 13
Morgan/Romero WON by 13
Three good wins to round off a very good event.
Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-24; +12.75pts
Matchups: 11-10; -1.16pts
Haas 1st
Bryant 2nd
Edwards 14th
Pretty good event when two of your selections contest the playoff and the third selection threatened to sneak a top-5 finish for most of the week. Just a pity that the bigger-priced selection three-putted the last playoff hole to surrender a very good opportunity to win just a few minutes earlier.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-0; +6.00pts
McNulty/Hatalsky WON by 5
Morgan/James WON by 13
Morgan/Romero WON by 13
Three good wins to round off a very good event.
Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-24; +12.75pts
Matchups: 11-10; -1.16pts
