First, I want to thank everyone at Madjacks for sharing all the great info. There are so many good handicappers here that I try and check out as many posts as possible to find varying handicapping styles and writeups on games.
Since I?ve never posted any plays here I?ll offer a little preamble of how I go about picking my plays.
I?ve taken the first few weeks slow, to let teams try and find their identity.
I don?t expect anyone to follow these plays since I basically try to grind out a profit and don?t have any GOY or 10* plays.
I?m posting these more as a self-discipline mechanism for myself. In the past, I?ve played way too many games and this allows me to weed out what I think are my better plays. By posting them, I find myself more accountable.
Second, for those who may have read some of my previous posts (which aren?t many), I?m into numbers ? hard stats (rush offence/defence, pass offence/defence, etc) and trends. I also try to look at situational plays, but I admit that isn?t my strong point. Always trying to learn tho.
You will also see that I?m mainly a dog player.
All my plays are 1 unit but every now and again I?ll throw a 2-unit play out there.
This week, they?re all for 1 unit.
YTD: 0-0
Iowa (+13) @ Michigan
I?ve got to think this is going to be typical Big 10 battle of the trenches.
The total also dictates my play on the Hawkeyes. It?s sitting at 39.5 at Oly as I write this and neither offence has shown much early in the season. Both defences are above average vs. the run (Iowa allow 43 yards per game while Michigan is at 63.3 ypg). Hawkeyes allowing 162 ypg through the air even after getting torched by ASU last week. League average for pass defence allowed is 213 ypg.
Hoping last week was just a flat spot for Iowa, off a game with state rival Iowa St, plus a possible peek ahead to Michigan. In the past, Hawkeyes haven?t fared well vs. the Pac 10 historically, 2-8 ATS before last week?s loss to ASU.
Some ATS trends:
Iowa 17-7 vs Big 10; 13-4 after a SU loss; 8-2 at Michigan
Series fave is 0-6-1
For those looking at the other side, Michigan is 11-2 in 2nd of BB home games.
NC State (+9) @ Va Tech
Think this is a line where people are overreacting to last week?s Wolfpack loss to the Buckeyes. From what I saw on the net, everyone was on NC St which possibly leads to a swing away from Wolfpack this week.
The game was decided on turnovers and hoping that NC St hangs on to the ball this week.
Wolfpack as a road dog are 9-0 and 11-3 as a dog with Amato
There?s also another number situation that I?ve been playing with also leads me to back the Wolfpack. I make up a chart with the various stats (as I said above, rush offence/defence, turnovers, points for/against, pass offence/defence, yards per play, etc) and compare to the league average.
Wolfpack come up as a +2 over Hokies, which I?m hoping is good enough to stay within the number. I?ve only started this angle this week so we?ll see what happens.
Troy (+14.5) @ South Carolina
Another play where the total sways me to play Troy St (38 at Oly)
Hoping last week was a stumble by Troy and got to think it was inevitable after knocking off Mizzou and Marshall
Looking for Trojans to pick it back up vs. high-profile conference. My stat numbers come as even, again hoping that?s good enough for Troy to stay within the number.
Troy is 4-0 vs. the SEC
?Cocks are 12-20 vs defences that allow 17 pts or less per game
other leans which I may add:
Northwestern (really want to pull the trigger on this but just seems to be 1 of those public dogs and reading too much about Wildcats injuries - Wildcats do fall into a situation that I followed last year and I?ll watch and see if the line goes up in favour of Gophers)
SJ State (I guess 1 team has to be favoured in this game, but why SMU ?? - very close to backing Spartans but it seems like there is a game each week where I have no business playing since I don?t know much about either team. Mustangs are -9 in my league stats while Spartans come in at -5)
Nevada (possible letdown for SD St ?? and Wolfpack offence may be able to control the clock with RB Kretschmer)
Buffalo (why is Ohio laying almost 2 TDs but with 2 bad teams going head to head, tough for me to back the Buffs, especially off a West coast trip last week)
Air Force (is UNLV that bad or could flyboys control the clock vs Utes to stay within the number - flyboys are 21-11 as road dog, 12-4 on turf, 13-5 before Navy, series host is 1-6)
Since I?ve never posted any plays here I?ll offer a little preamble of how I go about picking my plays.
I?ve taken the first few weeks slow, to let teams try and find their identity.
I don?t expect anyone to follow these plays since I basically try to grind out a profit and don?t have any GOY or 10* plays.
I?m posting these more as a self-discipline mechanism for myself. In the past, I?ve played way too many games and this allows me to weed out what I think are my better plays. By posting them, I find myself more accountable.
Second, for those who may have read some of my previous posts (which aren?t many), I?m into numbers ? hard stats (rush offence/defence, pass offence/defence, etc) and trends. I also try to look at situational plays, but I admit that isn?t my strong point. Always trying to learn tho.
You will also see that I?m mainly a dog player.
All my plays are 1 unit but every now and again I?ll throw a 2-unit play out there.
This week, they?re all for 1 unit.
YTD: 0-0
Iowa (+13) @ Michigan
I?ve got to think this is going to be typical Big 10 battle of the trenches.
The total also dictates my play on the Hawkeyes. It?s sitting at 39.5 at Oly as I write this and neither offence has shown much early in the season. Both defences are above average vs. the run (Iowa allow 43 yards per game while Michigan is at 63.3 ypg). Hawkeyes allowing 162 ypg through the air even after getting torched by ASU last week. League average for pass defence allowed is 213 ypg.
Hoping last week was just a flat spot for Iowa, off a game with state rival Iowa St, plus a possible peek ahead to Michigan. In the past, Hawkeyes haven?t fared well vs. the Pac 10 historically, 2-8 ATS before last week?s loss to ASU.
Some ATS trends:
Iowa 17-7 vs Big 10; 13-4 after a SU loss; 8-2 at Michigan
Series fave is 0-6-1
For those looking at the other side, Michigan is 11-2 in 2nd of BB home games.
NC State (+9) @ Va Tech
Think this is a line where people are overreacting to last week?s Wolfpack loss to the Buckeyes. From what I saw on the net, everyone was on NC St which possibly leads to a swing away from Wolfpack this week.
The game was decided on turnovers and hoping that NC St hangs on to the ball this week.
Wolfpack as a road dog are 9-0 and 11-3 as a dog with Amato
There?s also another number situation that I?ve been playing with also leads me to back the Wolfpack. I make up a chart with the various stats (as I said above, rush offence/defence, turnovers, points for/against, pass offence/defence, yards per play, etc) and compare to the league average.
Wolfpack come up as a +2 over Hokies, which I?m hoping is good enough to stay within the number. I?ve only started this angle this week so we?ll see what happens.
Troy (+14.5) @ South Carolina
Another play where the total sways me to play Troy St (38 at Oly)
Hoping last week was a stumble by Troy and got to think it was inevitable after knocking off Mizzou and Marshall
Looking for Trojans to pick it back up vs. high-profile conference. My stat numbers come as even, again hoping that?s good enough for Troy to stay within the number.
Troy is 4-0 vs. the SEC
?Cocks are 12-20 vs defences that allow 17 pts or less per game
other leans which I may add:
Northwestern (really want to pull the trigger on this but just seems to be 1 of those public dogs and reading too much about Wildcats injuries - Wildcats do fall into a situation that I followed last year and I?ll watch and see if the line goes up in favour of Gophers)
SJ State (I guess 1 team has to be favoured in this game, but why SMU ?? - very close to backing Spartans but it seems like there is a game each week where I have no business playing since I don?t know much about either team. Mustangs are -9 in my league stats while Spartans come in at -5)
Nevada (possible letdown for SD St ?? and Wolfpack offence may be able to control the clock with RB Kretschmer)
Buffalo (why is Ohio laying almost 2 TDs but with 2 bad teams going head to head, tough for me to back the Buffs, especially off a West coast trip last week)
Air Force (is UNLV that bad or could flyboys control the clock vs Utes to stay within the number - flyboys are 21-11 as road dog, 12-4 on turf, 13-5 before Navy, series host is 1-6)
