Serie A

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flapjack

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Going to try to keep track of my record this year in Serie A. Maybe it will inforce some discpline on myself. All plays 1 unit:

Palermo-Napoli O2.5 +110

Genoa-Roma O2.5 Ev

Genoa ML +140

Udinese ML -133
 

flapjack

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Just for the F of it, a 4x6 Round Robin long shot parlay
1.5 units to win 64.5:

Sienna Pk - up to +215 now. Can't understand all the confidence in this crapy Milan team. They'll be fightin for a Europa spot this year - if they're lucky. Sienna makes their living getting results at home.
Bari +1.5
Livorno ML - Cagliari's away record over the past several seasons is shockingly bad.
Genoa ML - Roma's got issues on top of issues. Genoa will be hell to beat at home all year and especially opening day vs a shaky, injured Roma that just got back from eastern Europe.
Sampdoria ML Cassano.
Napoli ML - If Donadoni doesnt f it up and certain heads dont get turned by bigger clubs again, they could do some major damage this year.

Most likely throwing away 1.5 units, but just give me 4 winners out of that lot.
 

flapjack

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3-1 on the individual bets, just missed hitting 4 on the round robin.

3-1 +2.5
0-1 -1.5

+ 1 total
 
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flapjack

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Week 2:

More overs for serie A - all 1 unit:

Samp-Udinese O2.5

Fior-Palermo O2.5

Roma-Juve O2.5

Napoli -1

Juve Pk

Let it rain goals tomorrow in Italy.
 
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flapjack

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Should have just left well enough alone, turned a 4-1 day into a 4-3 day with some last minute plays.

Overall:
7-4 +3.1 straight
0-1 -1.5 parlays.
 

flapjack

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One for Sat. Looks too good to be true which most likey means Im screwed:

Napoli-Udinese O 2.5 -130 3 units

Napoli-Udinese 1H O1.5 +180 1 unit
 
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flapjack

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7-6-1 -.9 units

Juve O2.5 -140 1 unit
1H Juve O1.5 +180 .5 unit
Genoa Pk +125 1 unit
1H Genoa +260 .25 unit
 
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flapjack

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Bari +1.5 -145 3 units
Bari U2.5 -120 1 unit
Bari ML+800 .25 units

I dont think theres much seperating Bari and Milan other than their name.
 

flapjack

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12-10-2 +1.2 units
0-1 -1.5 on parlays

I think Milan is going to make me alot of money fading for a while.
 

spits

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If it wasn't for Storari in goal, Bari could have beaten us by a couple instead of a draw. I hope that prick Berlusconi realizes that balancing the books could result in a huge revenue shortfall in years to come (no Champions League spot).

Nice work on fading Milan although I'm certain the books will adjust in due time.
 

flapjack

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Bari really should have finished one of those chances off at least. Keep in mind Bari was missing 8 regulars. On another note, Bari could be a nice suprise this year. They get 2 draws in their trips to the San Siro and weren't healthy for either match. Given who they've already placed and their injuries, they've done alot better than their record reflects.

I feel bad for Leonardo and would like to see them get it together. But, he had no chance for success. They really need a massive talent infusion. I think they overachieved the last few years soley based on Kaka's talent making those around him better and the guile of Ancelloti. Both gone. That team they put out on the pitch would be the best in the world if it were 10 years ago - maybe even 15 years ago. The fact that Beckham had such a positive impact on the team last year says alot.

My only hope that the odds dont adjust that quickly is that its such a public team and when you look at the names on the pitch, it looks impressive. The announcer before the game talked about they might have to lower their expectations to a top 3 finish. I was thinking what is he talking about? I really dont see this squad even making an Europa league spot unless something dramatic happens to change the makeup of this club. I think it will be hard for alot of bettors to really believe Milan can drop out of the top half of the table so quickly. Plus, with their win away to Marsielle, they've got a good shot to advance in the CL which might cause people to overrate them domestically.
 
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