Series line update

[katts]

Well after that 5-0 KO, things have changed a bit.. here's my estimated series line now that the Avs took a 1-0 lead:

Colorado -145 (59.5%) MPO: NJ in 7(!)


The Devils are lucky to have a 2 days rest here. But really, after such a blowout in game 1, it doesn't look like it's gonna be easy - no matter how hard they work and how rested they are - and I don't expect them to win in game 2... So despite all my hopes I have on the Devils, to be honest I see a 2-0 Colorado lead after 2 games. You don't win a game 5-0 to lose the next one.

It's a bit early to talk about a sweep though - I see the Devils come back in the series after that... if they play the way they can back in NJ.

 

[Investment Executive]

gonna be an interesting rest of series Katts....for sure...

historically speaking...

in the nhl finals...

when the home team wins game one they are
29-15 in game two s/u....(65.9%)

when the home team wins game one they have won the series w/ a record of 38-6 (86.4%)

not that this really matters w/ individual series matchups...but thought i would just throw that out there.

 

[katts]

when the home team wins game one they have won the series w/ a record of 38-6 (86.4%)

Ok now THIS is a rather scary number.

However with all due respect, this series is a very particular one IMHO, and you can't really rely on the previous years numbers because here the fact of the matter remains: the team having the home ice advantage isn't the favorite. Here we're not talking about a Detroit/Washington series, an Edmonton/Boston series or a NYIslanders/Vancouver series if you get what I'm saying.

But thanks IE, it just puts more evidence on the fact that Colorado has very good chances to win the Cup at this point. I found Colorado -125 (series) at WSEX and for the MadJack record, I'll put 3 units on it. Some sort of hedge play on New Jersey at the same time.. But the main reason why I play this is because I see value on it, not because of the hedge thing:

Colorado (series) -125 *3


But anyways, don't get me wrong, I'm still cheering for the Devils like hell. And here's the fact: I took that 5-0 blowout on Saturday just like a punch straight in the face while I was sleeping. What kind of a nightmare was that... still having some hard time to believe it. Now here's the deal: I had time to think about it and believe me, there's no way this is gonna happen again. Blame it on the medias in game 1, blame it on the Mile High Effect, but anyways, Larry's a wise guy and the Devils are a proud and strong team and this will not happen again. Being in Denver for the last 3 days, now they're more used to everything related to this city (weather, air pressure, medias..) and they will be ready in game 2. I want to see a massacre out there. I require demolition. I demand vengeance.

So despite all my hopes I have on the Devils, to be honest I see a 2-0 Colorado lead after 2 games. You don't win a game 5-0 to lose the next one.

I can't believe I said that. I guess I felt a bit desperate to say something like that. "Wake up katts!! You're talking about your Devils here!"

I'm probably gonna lay that 1.5 goal on the Devils once again for the big +250 payoff. After all, the Devils totally dominated the Avs in the 2 games of the regular season (6-1 in NJ and 6-3 in Denver). There was a reason for that. They are the better team, period. That 5-0 blowout in game 1 was a mistake, a bad dream, nothing else.

 

[Mr. Promises Delivered]

"I'm probably gonna lay that 1.5 goal on the Devils once again for the big +250 payoff. After all, the Devils totally dominated the Avs in the 2 games of the regular season (6-1 in NJ and 6-3 in Denver). There was a reason for that. They are the better team, period. That 5-0 blowout in game 1 was a mistake, a bad dream, nothing else."

<hr>

I have to respectfully disagree here, what happened on Saturday was not a dream, the better team won period.

There is a reason why the Avs were the #1 team in the NHL, it's because they were the best team in the NHL.

I don't buy into the two losses by the Avs to the Devils as for one thing the regular season means nothing now & two there easily could have been some reasons as to why the game wasn't an even matchup etc...

If we were to buy into the whole regular season then Pittsburgh should be in the finals, not the Devils as correct me if I'm wrong but Pittsburgh won the season series 3-1.

Alot of people have asked me why am I so confident Colorado will win the cup, simply one they are the better team & two their style of play is what will win them the Cup quite easily IMHO.

Some I've talked to, consider the Avs another form of the Penguins & in some ways they are talent wise but there are so many differences as well.

First off Colorado is not just a finesse team like the Penguins & the Euro Flow game they play. The Avs have a ton of natural speed, world class players & they are willing to dig in the trenches to win those loose puck battles unlike the Penguins.

I feel the natural speed of the Avs will hurt the Devils & expose them. If the Avs use their speed wisely, they can easily beat the trap the Devils play & they can really do some damage when the Devils revert to the 1-2-2 trap.

Quite a # of times during Game 1, the Devils got caught in the 1-2-2 trap by closing off one side of the ice but the great passers of the Avs broke right through it with nice cross ice passes & I fully expect more of the same in this series.

If the Devils are going to take the chance with their 1-2-2 trap alot, then this series will be a long one for them as they just don't have the players to match how the Avs will defeat that scenario.

I feel the best value in this series was when they made the Avs dogs to win it all, as the Devils have never faced anyone like this team before as not one team in the East can match the Avs overall.

I also feel the W. Conference is much stronger then the East as the Devils have clearly dominated over the years with the lack of quality teams over there.

If the Devils were in the W. Conf they'd be lucky to be the 3rd or 4th best team IMHO.

I hear alot about the depth of the Devils & yes they do have a deep team but so do the Avs even with the injuries they have.


I know the Devils are hungry but I feel the Avs are hungrier, they have something to prove & I feel they will, they will be too much for this Devils team & I feel confident they can sweep this series or at worst win it in 5 to cash the nice dog ticket.

Clearly I fully expect to see the Avs show why they are the better team period.

 

[Ice Picks]

My Two cents - I have to lean toward the AVS in the series also. These 2 teams are very close in talent and speed and coaching. It will come down to little things - such as face-offs, penalty killing, and just basically who wants it more. I also believe the altitude plays a bit of a factor, though many commentators pooh-pooh this.

My guess is those factors will slightly favor the AVS. I can see a 5 or 6 game series, with a couple of OTs.

Series Odds at 5 Dimes [after one game]:

Devils +110
AVS -130


[This message has been edited by Ice Picks (edited 05-29-2001).]