Responding to Tiger's challenge here
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After 4 upsets in 4 games, the odds have changed quite a bit.
So here are my estimated series lines at this point:
New Jersey -135 (57.5%) (MPO: NJ in 6)
Pittsburgh -190 (65.5%) (MPO: Pit in 6)
Colorado -140 (58.5%) (MPO: Col in 7)
St-Louis -195 (66.0%) (MPO: StL in 6)
Note that I didn't consider Mario jr's status (migh miss today's game), nor did I consider Modano's status.
As for me, I won't add any bet, but for those not allready having a bet on LA or Toronto, it still really worths a shot (IMO) as you can find LAKings +325 and Toronto +190.
I was talking about Roy's recent performances with a friend yesterday, and we both agreed to say that if there's one man who can self-destruct the Avalanche, it's gotta be him. His SPCT is really poor so far in the playoffs (.885) and he's never been that good against the Kings anyways - despite that SC final back in 1993, but hey, that was 8 years ago. The problem with Roy is that he sounds like he really thinks that he's like the good wine, that he's getting better over the years. If underestimating your capabilities can lead to failure, overestimating them can be just as destructive. Also, I think that it has allready been said here, but just in case, I remind you that LA is 5-3-0 vs the Avs in the last 2 years (regular season).
Now as for the Toronto, you can't close your eyes on the fact that they just won 5 straight. And after taking the lead 1-0 in the series, I really think that you have a good value here (+190). I still think that New Jersey is much stronger than the Leafs (and than any team in fact), but they'll have to adapt to the Leafs style fast if they don't wanna taste the same D/J (Defense / Joseph) medecine that Ottawa experimented in the hard way.
I was looking at the NJ's SOG dispersion on last Thursday... here's how it looks (from ESPN.com):
As you can see, all the shots (except maybe a few ones depending the way you see it) came from Joseph's left or from the center. I didn't notice during the game, but it seems like the Leafs concentrate their defense on the right side (from the goaltender's point of view), making it difficult for New Jersey to shoot from that part of the ice. They'll have to find a way to shoot from the right side (or their left side if you prefer) more often, otherwise it's getting too easy for Joseph to stop the same kinds of shots over and over again. Joseph is right-handed, which means that his glove is in his left hand. Most of the goaltenders will stop shots more easily if they come from the side of their gloves. It's natural. Joseph is also known to have a good glove. Also note that Joseph didn't allow any goal on shots coming from his left so far in the 2001 series. 2 of the 3 Sens goals came from his right, while the 3rd one came from the center. It will be interesting to see NJ's SOGs dispersion today.
Good luck today, whatever you play.
PS: Not sure if you'll be able to see the image. Just let me know if you can't.. Or go at ESPN.com and click on "Game Cast" (Tor/NJ game, last thursday)
[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-28-2001).]
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After 4 upsets in 4 games, the odds have changed quite a bit.
So here are my estimated series lines at this point:
New Jersey -135 (57.5%) (MPO: NJ in 6)
Pittsburgh -190 (65.5%) (MPO: Pit in 6)
Colorado -140 (58.5%) (MPO: Col in 7)
St-Louis -195 (66.0%) (MPO: StL in 6)
Note that I didn't consider Mario jr's status (migh miss today's game), nor did I consider Modano's status.
As for me, I won't add any bet, but for those not allready having a bet on LA or Toronto, it still really worths a shot (IMO) as you can find LAKings +325 and Toronto +190.
I was talking about Roy's recent performances with a friend yesterday, and we both agreed to say that if there's one man who can self-destruct the Avalanche, it's gotta be him. His SPCT is really poor so far in the playoffs (.885) and he's never been that good against the Kings anyways - despite that SC final back in 1993, but hey, that was 8 years ago. The problem with Roy is that he sounds like he really thinks that he's like the good wine, that he's getting better over the years. If underestimating your capabilities can lead to failure, overestimating them can be just as destructive. Also, I think that it has allready been said here, but just in case, I remind you that LA is 5-3-0 vs the Avs in the last 2 years (regular season).
Now as for the Toronto, you can't close your eyes on the fact that they just won 5 straight. And after taking the lead 1-0 in the series, I really think that you have a good value here (+190). I still think that New Jersey is much stronger than the Leafs (and than any team in fact), but they'll have to adapt to the Leafs style fast if they don't wanna taste the same D/J (Defense / Joseph) medecine that Ottawa experimented in the hard way.
I was looking at the NJ's SOG dispersion on last Thursday... here's how it looks (from ESPN.com):
As you can see, all the shots (except maybe a few ones depending the way you see it) came from Joseph's left or from the center. I didn't notice during the game, but it seems like the Leafs concentrate their defense on the right side (from the goaltender's point of view), making it difficult for New Jersey to shoot from that part of the ice. They'll have to find a way to shoot from the right side (or their left side if you prefer) more often, otherwise it's getting too easy for Joseph to stop the same kinds of shots over and over again. Joseph is right-handed, which means that his glove is in his left hand. Most of the goaltenders will stop shots more easily if they come from the side of their gloves. It's natural. Joseph is also known to have a good glove. Also note that Joseph didn't allow any goal on shots coming from his left so far in the 2001 series. 2 of the 3 Sens goals came from his right, while the 3rd one came from the center. It will be interesting to see NJ's SOGs dispersion today.
Good luck today, whatever you play.
PS: Not sure if you'll be able to see the image. Just let me know if you can't.. Or go at ESPN.com and click on "Game Cast" (Tor/NJ game, last thursday)
[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-28-2001).]
