Serious opinions about OU-MD or OU-KU ML, please.

[TheShrimp]

I have a futures bet on OU that I got at 50-1. In light of that, I have a few questions that are important to my hedging scheme. Any help is greatly appreciated.

Q1: I know that the line will be reflected in what happens on Saturday, but what do you think a ML would be if OU played MD in the finals, or KU in the finals? That's a ML on MD or KU, and yes, I know it would probably be negative, but the question is, by how much? (I won't tell you what I am thinking because I don't want it to bias your thoughts)

Q2: If you don't know ML's, what do you think a spread would be (I can make my own translations after that).

Q3: Also, have any of you seen better lines at winning it all than MD 2:1 or KU 9:5 or Indy at 10:1? If so, where? [I did check several online books, but several others only allow members to view lines, so I'm not being too lazy here] I have enough sitting in Paypal to open another account, so if there are better lines out there, any thing I can get would be great.

<edit because it didn't make sense>

Thanks a lot for any insight you can offer,
TheShrimp

 

[ZNine]

just my thoughts (might not be worth much)

just my thoughts (might not be worth much)

I think in both cases thelines will be very close. I would guess if MD plays OU in the final MD will be getting a couple. Remember OU beat them early in the season 72-56, of course that might as well have been last year (oh wait, it was last year) because it was so early in the season and MD probably wont let that happen again. If for some reason Vegas is giving points to OU, I will be all over it.

Now if Kansas is the match up, I think OU will be at around a pick. The first match up kansas won by 7, then of course in the Big12 tourney OU won by 9. Both teams are or will be on a roll. So there's my 2 cents. Im sure other, better, cappers on here will have better guestiments for you. GL with whatever you do. I'd like to see OU win it myself


- Z9

 

[TheShrimp]

First, I'm trying to bump this up because I'm really looking for more opinions.

Second, most places have OU as a 5-2 dog to win it all whereas MD is 2-1 and Kansas is 9-5. AND, OU has an easier first round game.

That means that the books consider OU a dog to both, as do I, but I still don't want to say what my numbers are.

I'm pretty sure OU will be getting points from either team so you should be happy, Z9.

 

[kycapper]

KU -3.5 or 4; MD -1.5 or 2
Just my opinion of what the lines would be FWIW. Good Luck.

 

[TheShrimp]

Thanks, KY.

I was about .5-1 point higher on both of those. However, what you wrote is probably more like what I think they SHOULD be, not what they WILL be. There will be variation based on what happens on saturday.

For ML's I'm thinking about KU -210 and MD -180 or so.

Any other thoughts from anyone?

TheShrimp

 

[BASON]

Kansas and Maryland will definitely be favored and will receive lots of money initially. Neither of their losses to OK will make a difference especially the Maryland loss which came after a long MD layoff and was in Norman.

I make Kansas a 4.5 to 5 point favorite and Maryland a 3.5 to 4 point favorite and see the Kansas ML around -215 andn MD at -195.

I am hoping for this situation, as I think public money will come is fast for Kansas or MD, then "smart" money will come in on OK.

Money lines will be good indicators of where mone is flowing. I think youe will see them shrink considerably without significant line movement.