Pointwise
College Basketball
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
ARIZONA over Illinois (Sat) RATING: 1
CALIFORNIA over Kansas State (Sun) RATING: 2
OHIO U over Maryland (Wed) RATING: 3
NEW MEXICO over San Diego (Sat) RATING: 3
TOLEDO over Drexel (Sat) RATING: 4
VILLANOVA over Temple (Sun) RATING: 4
MIAMI-FLA over Mississippi St (Thurs) RATING: 5
NFL KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA over San Francisco RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
TENNESSEE over San Diego RATING: 4
CAROLINA over Jacksonville RATING: 5
CLEVELAND over New York Jets RATING: 5
Powersweep
4 Star Jacksonville 37-16
3 Star San Diego 27-21
2 Star Cleveland 30-17
2 Star N Y Giants 24-20
3* dolphins under 36'
3* panthers over 38
3* chargers over 41
2* minn. over 40
2* raiders over 42
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
JACKSONVILLE by 21 over Carolina
TENNESSEE by 10 over San Diego
OVER THE TOTAL in the Oakland-Green Bay game
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
*Chicago 19 - WASHINGTON 17?Everyone was shocked by the senseless
death of Pro Bowl S Sean Taylor of the Redskins. But in the dog-eat-dog world
of the NFL, you can be sure 2006 Super Bowl finalist Chicago?desperate to
return to the postseason?will try to attack the already-thin Washington
secondary with speed receivers Bernard Berrian & Devin Hester. Rex making
better decisions and being more careful with the ball since returning to action
following his benching. Redskins, only 1-6-2 vs. spread last 9 at home, too
often aiding the enemy.
(05-WASHINGTON -5' 9-7...SR: Chicago 23-21-1) TV?NFL NETWORK
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9
***JACKSONVILLE 27 - Carolina 6?Carolina apparently better off with
44-year-old Vinny Testaverde at QB than either alternative (punchy David Carr
or rookie Matt Moore) at John Fox?s disposal. But upon closer inspection,
Panthers? only shining moments last 7 weeks have been against the QB-shy
Cardinals (mostly Tim Rattay in that game) and the offense-poor 49ers. The
resurrection of dormant Carolina pass rush last week (6 sacks) more an
indictment of S.F. OL woes than anything else. Jax QB David Garrard (only one
pick TY) mostly mistake-free and Jags still on wild card trajectory, so ground
game should roll.
(03-CAROLINA -4 24-23...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
Dallas 31 - DETROIT 13?Amazingly, Detroit?s debilitating 4-game skid
hasn?t eliminated it from wide-open NFC wild card chase. But allowing NFLworst
50 sacks (revolving door at RT not helping; ex-Bronco George Foster has
been a huge bust) and gaining a few inches per carry in some recent outings will
scotch Lions? playoff hopes and Jon Kitna?s promise of 10 wins soon enough.
Meanwhile, Dallas? main concern is honing its edge for playoffs. And with Romo
(33 TDP) & T.O. (14 TDC) red hot, Detroit?s fading defense should oblige.
(06-Det. 39-DA. 31...De.22-19 De.25/85 Da.21/58 Da.23/32/1/307 De.28/42/1/277 De.0 Da.3)
(06-Detroit +13' 39-31...SR: Dallas 11-10)
BUFFALO 13 - Miami 9?It?s nervous time for the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay
Bucs after what seemed to be 0-12 Miami?s best chance at a win went down the
drain vs. the lowly Jets. Will Cam Cameron be tempted to give QB Cleo Lemon
another look (how?s that for an alternative?) after Dolphins? ?O? went its third
straight game without scoring a TD with rookie John Beck (3 ints. 2 fumbles vs. Jets) at the controls? Still, Miami has often come close TY, losing by 3 points
SIX times! Punchless Buffalo bunch has cracked the 20-point barrier just twice TY.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(06-Buf. 16-MIAMI 6...M.15-12 B.32/105 M.20/92 M.23/32/1/190 B.11/18/0/66 B.0 M.0)
(06-BUF. 21-Miami 0...B.13-12 M.28/112 B.37/100 B.13/19/0/186 M.14/33/2/100 B.2 M.0)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10; 06-Buffalo +6' 16-6, BUFFALO -1 21-0...SR: Miami 50-36-1)
N.Y. Giants 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17?For a while last week, Eli Manning (2
ints., 1 fumble) looked like the ?Rex of the East.? But he later led the Giants on
two, gritty, fourth-Q TD drives to beat the Bears in Chicago. Meanwhile, will the
fickle Philly fans still be calling for Feeley after his 4 ints. (now 7 in two games) last
week? Either way, would rather have the points in battle of two capable but erratic
offenses and hard-rushing but often vulnerable defenses. (What in the ?wide, wide
world of sports? has happened to the Eagles? tackling?)
(07-NYG 16-Phil. 3...16-16 P.23/114 N.27/83 N.14/26/1/129 P.15/31/0/76 N.0 P.1)
(06-Nyg 30-PHIL. 24 (OT)...N.24-23 P.30/107 N.26/86 P.27/45/0/344 N.31/43/1/318 N.0 P.1)
(06-Phil. 36-NYG 22...N.22-21 P.30/161 N.22/88 N.28/40/2/270 P.19/28/1/221 P.1 N.2)
(06-PHIL. 23-Nyg 20...P.19-17 P.31/185 N.31/151 N.16/27/1/154 P.17/31/0/138 P.0 N.0)
(07-GIA +2' 16-3; 06-Gia +3 30-24 (OT), Phil. +5' 36-22, PHI. -7 23-20 (P)...SR: NY 79-67-2)
***OVER THE TOTAL GREEN BAY 37 - Oakland 16?Early indications
are that the remarkable Brett Favre?s starting streak of 269 games (including
playoffs) is likely to continue despite last week?s right arm and left shoulder
injuries at Dallas. And CB Charles Woodson (former Raider) & DE Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila might return as well. The Raider run defense often vaporizes on
the road (198 ypg last 4!). If Ryan Grant (588 YR) gets it going in Lambeau,
Favre & WRs have a fun day. Pack 12-3-1 vs. spread last 16 games; 8-4 ?over? TY.
(03-Green Bay -5 41-7...SR: EVEN 5-5)
NEW ENGLAND 35 - Pittsburgh 27?When the Patriots reached 8-0 by
winning at Indianapolis, many pundits pointed to this week?s game as the
biggest hurdle on their way to a 16-0 regular season. But the Steelers, only 2-
3 SU on the road TY despite the league?s top-rated defense, have plenty to
prove in their own right. However, Philly?s 336 YP at N.E. show the Pats?
defense is vulnerable at times (which might why Bill Belichick appeared to be
?courting? Baltimore S Ed Reed last week for future free agency). Pittsburgh 12-
6 last 18 as dog. Pats ?over? 9 of first 11 TY (prior to Monday night in Baltimore).
(05-New England +3 23-20...SR: Pittsburgh 13-9)
***TENNESSEE 27 - San Diego 17?Are back-to-back wins over the
troubled Ravens & Chiefs an indicator that beleaguered Norv Turner finally has
San Diego back on track? Perhaps, especially since L.T. getting 25-30 touches
per game lately. But Philip Rivers (once coached at NC State by current Tenn.
o.c. Norm Chow) still blowing hot and cold, and Bolts? only success TY vs. a
winning team was its fluke-fest vs. Indy (Peyton six ints.!). Key DT Albert
Haynesworth back in action last week. And ex-Bear Justin Gage (22 catches
last 4 games) emerging as reliable target for Vince Young.
(06-S. DIEGO 40-Tenn. 7...S.26-14 S.37/241 T.19/55 S.25/36/0/235 T.13/38/2/163 S.0 T.0)
(06-SAN DIEGO -11 40-7...SR: San Diego 21-16-1)
CINCINNATI 24 - St. Louis 23?Improving Rams just one bobbled goal-line
snap vs. Seattle from being 4-0 SU last four games! Steven Jackson (354 YR,
16 recs.) close to his 2006 self in those four, with St. Louis scoring 24 ppg.
While Cincy potent on offense, injuries & flaws on defense have recently kept the
Bengals under .500 as a home favorite (7-9-1 L2+Ys). With Cincy?s playoff hopes
flickering none too brightly, wouldn?t count on host in this one.
(03-ST. LOUIS -7 27-10...SR: EVEN 5-5)
HOUSTON 23 - Tampa Bay 17?Buccaneers rule the NFC South, where
they?re 4-0 SU & vs. the spread. But they?re just 4-4 vs. the rest of the league.
And Houston?s young defenders (Mario Williams 8? sacks; Amobe Okoye 5)
rarely make things easy for foes. T.B. QB Luke McCown surprised New Orleans for 313 YR and 34 YR in his first start in three years. Sage Rosenfels
has proven to be a capable backup QB for Houston.
(2007 Preseason: Tampa Bay -3 beat Houston 31-24 at Tampa Bay)
(03-TAMPA BAY -11 16-3...SR: Tampa Bay 1-0)
SEATTLE 31 - Arizona 19?Cardinals, with the development of their top-notch
receiving corps, have become a righteous underdog (10-2-1) in recent years. But,
like most teams, they?ve had their problems (1-3 last 4) covering in noisy Seattle.
Don?t see Arizona (defense down 4 starters) keeping pace with Seattle now that
Shaun Alexander back, RB Maurice Morris improved, and WR Nate Burleson
helping at wideout and on returns. Hawks? attacking defense (MLB Lofa Tatupu 3
ints. last week!) setting up some easy scores. Series ?over? 6 of last 7.
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)
(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)
(07-ARIZONA +3 23-20; 06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, ARIZONA +3 27-21...SR: Arizona 9-
Minnesota 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13?Minnesota (6-6) back in thick of NFC
wild card chase. With Adrian Peterson back (116 YR and 2 TDs in romp past
Lions), o. c. Darrell Bevell can effectively pick spots for second-year QB T.
Jackson to look downfield. Rookie WR Sidney Rice (4 TDC) and WR/KR
Aundrae Allison (103-yard return last week; 2 for 52 receiving) joining with
Peterson & Jackson to provide Vikes (33 ppg last 3) with a promising young
nucleus. Meanwhile, S.F. returned to its customary ways at Carolina,
producing only 195 yards, with Trent Dilfer yielding 6 sacks & 4 picks.
(06-S. FRAN. 9-Minn. 3...M.17-8 M.33/135 S.26/42 M.21/31/1/103 S.13/21/1/91 S.0 M.2)
(06-SAN FRANCISCO +4 9-3...SR: San Francisco 22-19-1)
Cleveland 27 - NY JETS 20?Browns (3 giveaways) got sloppy with the ball
last week at Arizona. But they?re still the go-with team in this pairing, likely to
bring much more offense to bear, especially with the Jets? defense ranking way
down the list (which is ?held up? by Cleveland?s, of course). But Browns? young
offense (rebuilt OL has held together well) has the type receiver group (Braylon
Edwards now 12 TDC) that Jets are seeking. Will note that N.Y. won two as a
home dog in OT.
(06-CLE. 20-Jets 13...C.16-12 C.39/147 N.27/88 C.15/22/1/120 N.11/28/2/105 C.0 N.1)
(06-CLEVELAND -2 20-13...SR: Cleveland 12-7)
DENVER 19 - Kansas City 16?Denver has not been a worthy favorite TY (1-
6 in role), while K.C.?s offense (12 ppg last 4) has been besieged by backfield
injuries. Chiefs might get a boost if Larry Johnson (out the last 4 games; check
status) returns, even though rookie RB Kolby Smith (233 YR last 2 games)
hasn?t been the main problem. But Herm Edwards? defense still playing hard
and has revenge in mind. Broncs (3-11 vs. spread last 1+seasons at home)
can?t be trusted.
(07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(06-DENVER 9-K. City 6 (OT)...D.18-16 D.36/145 K.34/145 D.16/30/1/173 K.17/23/0/131 D.0 K.2)
(06-K. CITY 19-Denver 10...K.22-16 K.41/223 D.16/38 D.25/39/1/206 K.13/22/1/159 K.0 D.0)
(07-Denver +3 27-11; 06-DENVER -10' 9-6 (OT), KANSAS CITY -1' 19-10...SR: Kansas City 52-43)
*Indianapolis 31 - BALTIMORE 14?The wistful among the M&T Bank
Stadium faithful can be excused for looking at playoff-bound Indy and recalling
the glory days of Johnny Unitas & Co. when the Colts played in town. They?re
sure not going down memory lane with the current Ravens team that is
collectively past its sell-by date and had covered just once all year heading into
last Monday?s game vs. Patriots. Baltimore can no longer rely on its aging
defense (32 points or more 3 of last 4) to compensate for its woes on offense.
TV?NBC
(06-Indy 15-BALT. 6...I.15-13 I.35/100 B.20/83 I.15/30/2/161 B.18/29/2/161 I.0 B.2)
(06-Indianapolis +4 15-6 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 5-2)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 10
*New Orleans 23 - ATLANTA 13?N.O. (5-7) missed a chance last week to
win the game it had to win to get to .500, fumbling on a risky play near the 50 and
a 23-20 lead with less than four minutes to play. But the Saints have proven to
be a mentally-resilient team TY, with good leadership from coaches and QB
Brees. Meanwhile, fragile Falcons a risky proposition, with top three OTs lost
for the year and all losses by 6 points of more. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)
(07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16; 06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR:
Atlanta 44-33)
NBA KEY RELEASES
DETROIT by 17 over Chicago (Friday, December 7)
DENVER by 19 over Sacramento (Saturday, December
GOLDEN STATE by 7 over L.A. Lakers (Sunday, December 9)
KEY COLLEGE RELEASES
MISSOURI by 17 over Purdue (Sat., December 8 Day)
RHODE ISLAND by 2 over Syracuse (Sat., Dec.
CS NORTHRIDGE Plus over Gonzaga (Sat., Dec.
VILLANOVA by 17 over Temple (Sun., Dec. 9)
GOLD SHEET -CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF
11 *GREEN BAY over Oakland ***** I THINK THEY HAVE LOSY ONLY ONE 11* IN THE LAST 2 YEARS!!!!
Late Score Forecast:
*GREEN BAY 38 - OAKLAND 16
With early reports indicating Brett Favre will be ready to start after being felled at Dallas, and with other G.B. walking
wounded (including former Raider CB Charles Woodson) benefitting from extra time off, must lay the lumber.
Raiders don?t stop the run on the road (198 ypg the last 4), and RB Ryan Grant (588 YR; only four starts) a godsend
for G.B. G.B. has covered 12 of its last 16 games.
10 ST. LOUIS over *CINCINNATI
Late Score Forecast:
ST. LOUIS 27 - *Cincinnati 22
St. Louis won?t make the playoffs after its 0-8 start, but the Rams have regained their confidence with 3 wins in their
last 4 games, as RB Steven Jackson again healthy, setting up the Rams? explosive WRs. While Cincy still has scary
names on offense, CKO insiders report many in the Bengal locker room have become dispirited after the team?s
many disappointments TY.
TOTALS: UNDER (36) in the Miami-Buffalo game?Dolphins scoring 8 ppg their last 5; Bills play it ultra-conservative when rookie QB Trent Edwards is at
the controls...OVER (45) in the Arizona-Seattle game?Seattle defense setting up easy points for the offense; Cards? defense down four starters.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): DALLAS (-11?) at Detroit?Cowboys? healthy OL, attacking defense, and fine chemistry keep them rolling
despite the 10-day layoff from previous game.
CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 7-13, 2007
Friday,December 7
*GOLDEN STATE over Miami (NBA)...Golden State is on a 9-1 SU roll (8-2 vs. number) through Dec. 2. That streak closely coincides with the
return to action of G Stephen Jackson (21 ppg, 5 rpg & 4 apg in last 9 games). Also a factor is the emerging inside presence of 21-year-old
Latvian center Adris Biedrins, who?s contributing 11 ppg, 10 rpg and leads the team in blocks. Obviously, Miami wasn?t able to fill in around
Dwyane Wade in the offseason, and the further erosion of Shaquille O?Neal?s impact has been dramatic.
*GOLDEN STATE 113 - Miami 98 RATING - 10
Saturday,December 8
MARQUETTE over *Wisconsin (Day Game)...G-oriented Marquette at size disadvantage vs. Wisconsin. But veteran Warriors (all 5 starters
back) will effectively use their uptempo attack & aggressive defense, just as smaller, quicker Duke did in 82-58 home win vs. Badgers on Nov.
27. Marquette?s imperturbable sr. PG D. James (15 ppg, 3 apg, 42% treys) will score, dish & keep squad composed in hostile Kohl Center, while
Big East Defensive Player of Year, 6-3 sr. G McNeal (16 ppg, 4 apg), hounds Wiscy?s new go-to scorer, 6-1 soph G Hughes (18 ppg). Badgers
miss ?T&T Boys? (departed stars 6-7 F Tucker & G Taylor) in Warrior payback game. MARQUETTE 73 - *Wisconsin 60 RATING - 11
TEXAS over *Rice...Wrong place, wrong time scenario for Willis Wilson?s rebuilding Rice bunch that is having a hard time adjusting to life
without graduated sharpshooter Morris Almond (NBA 1st-round draftee). With Owls hitting only 34% from floor (and icy 28% beyond arc) and
suffering numerous one-sided beatings already, the last thing Rice needs is to face a roaring Texas squad that?s flying high after win at topranked
UCLA. Horns? firepower (85 ppg) and accuracy (54% from floor!) way too much for Owls to handle.
TEXAS 96 - *Rice 57 RATING - 10 (at Toyota Center)
BOSTON over *Chicago (NBA)...Intense Boston has cooled off a bit vs. the points, but Chicago has problems the Celtics will exploit. Bulls are
last in the league in scoring and are shooting horrendous 39.7% (also ranks last). Interestingly, Boston is playing the best defense in the
league, holding foes to 87 ppg & 40.5% (both league lows). Both teams played last night, but Chicago is 0-3 when unrested, while the Celtics
covered 3 of first 4 playing 2nd of back-to-back games. Celtics competence too much for struggling Bulls.
BOSTON 100 - *Chicago 82 RATING - 10
Sunday,December 9
*VIRGINIA TECH over George Washington (Day Game)...With rebuilding GW desperately looking for a creator on offense now that promising
soph PG T. King is out for year with knee injury, support athletic VT squad getting ever-improving play at that critical position from explosive,
speed-changing frosh PG Thorns (nearly 4 apg) & 6-3 combo G Delaney (8 ppg, 3 apg). And with prized 6-7 frosh F J. Allen (13 ppg, 7 rpg)
complementing vet Fs Vassallo (16 ppg, 44% from arc) & D. Washington (13 ppg, 6 rpg) to give Hokies their best forecourt since joining ACC
4 years ago, mistake-prone Colonials (40 TOs vs. last 2 major foes) fall in Blacksburg.
*VIRGINIA TECH 82 - George Washington 69 RATING - 11
Tuesday,December 11
*VALPARAISO over Evansville...E?ville?s 42-year-old rookie HC Marty Simmons (player & assistant under former HC Crews) unable so far to
replace 3 of the top 4 scorers from year ago, as poor-shooting 1-5 Aces (no DD scorer over 42% FGs) have managed only to eke out 51-50
win at Ball State. E?ville unlikely to make needed progress vs. seasoned, internationally-flavored, nicely-balanced Valpo (all 5 returning
starters between 9 & 12 ppg), which is already 2-0 SU & vs. spread TY in preconference revenge (W. Michigan & Ball State). Make that 3-0.
*VALPARAISO 84 - Evansville 59 RATING - 11
Wednesday,December 12
PRINCETON over *Penn State...No, Pete Carril hasn?t reappeared on Princeton bench. But disciple Sydney Johnson (?97 Ivy MVP) has Tigers
doing a pretty good ?Carril Ball? imitation in his first season as HC, with familiar pass-and-screen tactics controlling pace and allowing Princeton
to stay competitive vs. higher-regarded foes. And we?re not sure how highly to regard Penn State, which is laboring on offense (mere 40%
FGs & 30% 3s) with key F Cornley (bruised knee) in and out of lineup, putting too much scoring pressure on G Claxton.
PRINCETON 51 - *Penn State 50 RATING - 10
OHIO over *Maryland...With defensively-erratic Maryland (witness 85-76 upset loss vs. VCU Dec. 3) off revenge game vs. Boston College,
?take? with rugged Ohio (6th-year HC O?Shea says it?s his most physical unit), which has endured two last-second road losses (Temple &
Patriot League favorite Holy Cross). Ohio?s ball-swishing sr. G Walter (16 ppg, converts 3 treys pg) has eagerly moved to wing from point,
thanks to juco PG M. Allen (7 apg). And with Murray State transfer 6-7 F Orr (12 ppg) meshing with 6-8 sr. C Leon Williams (19 ppg, 10 rpg)
& 6-7 sr. F Tillman (19 ppg, 9 rpg), Bobcats spring upset vs. hot-and-cold Terps. OHIO 78 - *Maryland 77 RATING ? 10
WINNING POINTS
NFL
****BEST BET
Carolina over *Jacksonville by 10
There?s one thing the Panthers can do and that?s win away from home.
Carolina has knocked off Arizona,Atlanta,New Orleans and St. Louis on the
road this year.The Panthers are at their best as a road underdog, especially
in December where they have covered 13 of the past 15 times in this role.
Consequently, Jacksonville is at its worst laying a big price.The Jaguars have
been double-digit chalk four times during the last three years.They?ve failed
to cover every time, including laying 10 this season to the Falcons.
Jacksonville managed only to beat Atlanta, 13-7.The Jaguars are a conservative
team that wins playing good defense, running the ball and limiting mistakes.
That means taking few shots downfield.This philosophy fits their personnel,
but is not necessarily good for covering a large pointspread. The
Panthers are not devoid of talent. Julius Peppers is an elite defensive end.
Linebacker Jon Beason is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. Steve
Smith remains a dangerous playmaker. After fiddling around with totally
ineffective David Carr, Panthers coach John Fox fully realizes 44-year-old
Vinny Testaverde gives his team the best opportunity to win.The Panthers
had no confidence when the battered Carr was under center.They have a
much better attitude and downfield threat with Testaverde. Smith plays better.
So do running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. One reason
why the Panthers play better on the road is less pressure.The onus is
on Jacksonville. Don?t be surprised if the Jaguars don?t respond well this
week. Jacksonville played well at Indianapolis last Sunday, but still lost.That
defeat, in all probability, ended the Jaguars?AFC South Division title hopes.
The Jaguars have a key road tilt next week at Pittsburgh.This interconference
matchup isn?t big on their radar screen. CAROLINA 24-14.
***BEST BET
*Green Bay over Oakland by 27
The combination of Green Bay having four extra days to game-plan and get
healthy, the Raiders coming into cold weather and drawing an early start
time puts us in the Packers? corner. Brett Favre should be fine to start, but
even if he isn?t the Packers have enough to cover this spread with Aaron
Rodgers.The Raiders entered Week 13 with the worst run defense in the
league.The Packers are particularly tough when they can get their ground
attack going, which makes their play-action passes and frequent slant patterns
even more effective. The Raiders have a decent secondary, but not
nearly enough depth to cover Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie
James Jones. Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West teams this season.
Favre played his worst game of the season last Thursday against Dallas.
So did the Packers? defense. Some of this, of course,was because of Dallas,
the class of the NFC so far. But some also was injury-related.More than likely
the Packers will get back their two key defensive players that didn?t play
against the Cowboys, cornerback Charles Woodson and pass rusher Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Justin Fargas has been running well for the Raiders, but the
team still turns the ball over too much (26 giveaways) and commits too
many penalties to hang with an elite team like the Packers at such a tough
road venue. The Raiders? quarterback situation consists of Daunte
Culpepper,who isn?t 100 percent and still doesn?t have a full grasp of the
offense, perennial backup Josh McCown and rookie JaMarcus Russell, who
is just beginning to get his feet wet. The Packers are out for redemption
after a rare poor showing. They are a well-coached, fundamentally sound
team with plenty of big-play ability.The Raiders have yet to exhibit any of
these traits. GREEN BAY 37-10.
**PREFERRED
*Tennessee over San Diego by 10
The Chargers have seized control of the weak AFC West, but have yet to
establish a consistent passing attack and have covered just two of their last
eight away contests. Vince Young is the kind of quarterback San Diego?s
speed pass rushers can?t catch up to. Young?s passing is getting sharper
every week.The Titans have an inside-outside rushing tandem of LenDale
White and Chris Brown to keep the Chargers on their heels. Star defensive
lineman Albert Haynesworth returned last Sunday for Tennessee after missing
three games with a groin injury.The difference was amazing when he
wasn?t in the lineup.The Titans surrendered 97 points in the three games
Haynesworth missed. Their run defense is top-notch when Haynesworth
plays, which is crucial in bottling up LaDainian Tomlinson. Philip Rivers
isn?t enough of a playmaker to lead San Diego to a road victory unless he?s
getting a major contribution from Tomlinson. Flying from the West Coast to
Nashville for an early start time is a major negative for the Chargers.The last
time they had to do that was three weeks ago at Jacksonville and they were
flat in a 24-17 loss. The Titans also have a huge coaching edge with Jeff
Fisher going against Norv Turner.TENNESSEE 20-10.
*San Francisco over Minnesota by 4
Unlike most seasons, there is more of a gap in the NFL this season between
the haves and the have-nots.The 49ers definitely are a have-not.They?ve lost
nine of their past 10 games. Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards once this
season. San Francisco has broken the 20-point barrier only one time. But
the Vikings are not a ?have? team yet.Yes, they have won four of their past
five. Adrian Peterson is a dominating running back. Even Tarvaris Jackson
has picked up his play, completing 45-of-58 passes for 504 yards and three
touchdowns during the past three games. However, Minnesota is traveling
to the West Coast in the rare spot of being a road favorite.The game is on
grass. The Vikings are used to playing indoors on carpet. Their pass rush
isn?t going to be as effective because of this. The Vikings, under Brad
Childress, aren?t used to playing under this kind of pressure.They are shooting
for a wild-card spot and expected to win. It?s a division sandwich, too,
for Minnesota.The Vikings just hosted the Lions and are home to the Bears
the following Sunday.The 49ers have nothing to lose.They can play loose.
Veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer has decent receiving targets.The Vikings
went into last week ranked last in pass defense. SAN FRANCISCO 21-17.
NBA
Friday, December 7
***BEST BET
Indiana over *Orlando by 4
Indiana should be dialed-in to this matchup having had three days to prepare and then
off for another four days. Mike Dunleavy and Marquis Daniels are playing well. This
is Orlando?s first game back from a five-game West Coast trip so it could come out flat.
INDIANA 114-110.
***BEST BET
Toronto over *Boston by 3
The Raptors nearly upset Boston in their third game of the season, losing in overtime
as a short home favorite. The Celtics had trouble matching up against the quickness
of point guard T.J. Ford, who had 32 points. Chris Bosh had 19 points and 10 boards
for the Raptors and wasn?t 100 percent back then. Bosh (check status) should be recovered
from his recent groin injury. TORONTO 104-101.
***BEST BET
*Golden State over Miami by 11
The Warriors can run the tired and old Heat out of the gym. The Heat are playing
their second road game in two nights after opening a West Coast road swing in the high altitude of Utah on Monday. Monta Ellis is heating up and so are the Warriors.
Golden State was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS heading into December. GOLDEN STATE
116-105.
Saturday, December 8
***BEST BET
*Minnesota over Phoenix by 1
The Suns have a convenient excuse for overlooking the Timberwolves since this is their
final game of a five-game road trip. They may very well take the Timberwolves too
lightly. It?s Phoenix?s fourth game in five nights. Phoenix?s weakness is its weak bench.
The Timberwolves won?t be home again until Friday. They have three days off after
this matchup so the focus should be there. Al Jefferson provides scoring punch inside
and could get foul-prone Amare Stoudamire in foul trouble. MINNESOTA 114-113.
Sunday, December 9
***BEST BET
New Jersey over *Washington by 7
The Nets have owned the Wizards defeating them six consecutive times. Jason Kidd
could post another triple-down operating against Wizards? second-string point guard
Antonio Daniels. Richard Jefferson is having an All-Star type of first half for New
Jersey and Vince Carter is getting his shot back. Washington ranked just 24th in
defense. NEW JERSEY 112-105.
COLLEGE HOOPS:
Saturday, December 8
***BEST BET
Kansas* over DePaul by 24
After Jerry Wainwright?s lousy-shooting DePaul team beat Kansas 64-57 in Chicago
last season (right after Kansas had beaten Florida), Jayhawks? coach Self said, ?We
couldn?t play good defense without fouling.? Translation: ?We got hosed.? DePaul
guard Draelon Burns shot 8-for-8 from three-point range in DePaul?s last game, which
will seem like an eternity ago when he has trouble making the range in this building
against this opponent. Wainwright is committed to an up-tempo change this season
and says the worst thing to do would be to put on the brakes. Which would seem to
indicate mistakes forthcoming at a rapid pace. KANSAS, 89-65.
***BEST BET
Ohio* over Delaware by 31
Balanced Bobcats scoring and the ability to spread the floor with good outside shooting
range will make it very hard for scoring-challenged Delaware to hang in there.
What little air had been in this program went out of it two or three seasons ago and if
they are not getting steals, they?re not gonna be putting points on the board and even
then, they?re 50-50 to make an uncontested layup. Four Delaware players recently
played 32 to 39 minutes in a loss at Iona (2-27 SU in 2006-07). "There's a level of
excitement about the team because we have new players and transfers becoming eligible
December 16," coach Monte Ross said recently. A check of the calendar reveals the
shocking truth: that?s eight days from today. OHIO, 95-64.
***BEST BET
Rhode Island over Syracuse* by 10
It?s so nice to have national TV commentators dishing out the superlatives about
Syracuse?s untested freshmen and sophomore guards as if they were Pearl Washington
assists. Our EXECUTIVE decision-makers used that edge for a 5-STAR winner with
UMass +7.5 vs. Boeheim?s NIT Orange Blossoms last week, and this Rhode Island
team is deeper into its running sets than Massachusetts was. When four of your guys
score 20 on your home floor and you still lose, you obviously have some work to do.
If he no longer wants to play zone, then he?ll be out-rebounded and out-breaked with
trigger-muscle from Rhodie?s upperclassmen muscle Daniels, Seawright and Mbang.
RHODE ISLAND, 85-75.
College Basketball
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
ARIZONA over Illinois (Sat) RATING: 1
CALIFORNIA over Kansas State (Sun) RATING: 2
OHIO U over Maryland (Wed) RATING: 3
NEW MEXICO over San Diego (Sat) RATING: 3
TOLEDO over Drexel (Sat) RATING: 4
VILLANOVA over Temple (Sun) RATING: 4
MIAMI-FLA over Mississippi St (Thurs) RATING: 5
NFL KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA over San Francisco RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
TENNESSEE over San Diego RATING: 4
CAROLINA over Jacksonville RATING: 5
CLEVELAND over New York Jets RATING: 5
Powersweep
4 Star Jacksonville 37-16
3 Star San Diego 27-21
2 Star Cleveland 30-17
2 Star N Y Giants 24-20
3* dolphins under 36'
3* panthers over 38
3* chargers over 41
2* minn. over 40
2* raiders over 42
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
JACKSONVILLE by 21 over Carolina
TENNESSEE by 10 over San Diego
OVER THE TOTAL in the Oakland-Green Bay game
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
*Chicago 19 - WASHINGTON 17?Everyone was shocked by the senseless
death of Pro Bowl S Sean Taylor of the Redskins. But in the dog-eat-dog world
of the NFL, you can be sure 2006 Super Bowl finalist Chicago?desperate to
return to the postseason?will try to attack the already-thin Washington
secondary with speed receivers Bernard Berrian & Devin Hester. Rex making
better decisions and being more careful with the ball since returning to action
following his benching. Redskins, only 1-6-2 vs. spread last 9 at home, too
often aiding the enemy.
(05-WASHINGTON -5' 9-7...SR: Chicago 23-21-1) TV?NFL NETWORK
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9
***JACKSONVILLE 27 - Carolina 6?Carolina apparently better off with
44-year-old Vinny Testaverde at QB than either alternative (punchy David Carr
or rookie Matt Moore) at John Fox?s disposal. But upon closer inspection,
Panthers? only shining moments last 7 weeks have been against the QB-shy
Cardinals (mostly Tim Rattay in that game) and the offense-poor 49ers. The
resurrection of dormant Carolina pass rush last week (6 sacks) more an
indictment of S.F. OL woes than anything else. Jax QB David Garrard (only one
pick TY) mostly mistake-free and Jags still on wild card trajectory, so ground
game should roll.
(03-CAROLINA -4 24-23...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
Dallas 31 - DETROIT 13?Amazingly, Detroit?s debilitating 4-game skid
hasn?t eliminated it from wide-open NFC wild card chase. But allowing NFLworst
50 sacks (revolving door at RT not helping; ex-Bronco George Foster has
been a huge bust) and gaining a few inches per carry in some recent outings will
scotch Lions? playoff hopes and Jon Kitna?s promise of 10 wins soon enough.
Meanwhile, Dallas? main concern is honing its edge for playoffs. And with Romo
(33 TDP) & T.O. (14 TDC) red hot, Detroit?s fading defense should oblige.
(06-Det. 39-DA. 31...De.22-19 De.25/85 Da.21/58 Da.23/32/1/307 De.28/42/1/277 De.0 Da.3)
(06-Detroit +13' 39-31...SR: Dallas 11-10)
BUFFALO 13 - Miami 9?It?s nervous time for the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay
Bucs after what seemed to be 0-12 Miami?s best chance at a win went down the
drain vs. the lowly Jets. Will Cam Cameron be tempted to give QB Cleo Lemon
another look (how?s that for an alternative?) after Dolphins? ?O? went its third
straight game without scoring a TD with rookie John Beck (3 ints. 2 fumbles vs. Jets) at the controls? Still, Miami has often come close TY, losing by 3 points
SIX times! Punchless Buffalo bunch has cracked the 20-point barrier just twice TY.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(06-Buf. 16-MIAMI 6...M.15-12 B.32/105 M.20/92 M.23/32/1/190 B.11/18/0/66 B.0 M.0)
(06-BUF. 21-Miami 0...B.13-12 M.28/112 B.37/100 B.13/19/0/186 M.14/33/2/100 B.2 M.0)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10; 06-Buffalo +6' 16-6, BUFFALO -1 21-0...SR: Miami 50-36-1)
N.Y. Giants 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17?For a while last week, Eli Manning (2
ints., 1 fumble) looked like the ?Rex of the East.? But he later led the Giants on
two, gritty, fourth-Q TD drives to beat the Bears in Chicago. Meanwhile, will the
fickle Philly fans still be calling for Feeley after his 4 ints. (now 7 in two games) last
week? Either way, would rather have the points in battle of two capable but erratic
offenses and hard-rushing but often vulnerable defenses. (What in the ?wide, wide
world of sports? has happened to the Eagles? tackling?)
(07-NYG 16-Phil. 3...16-16 P.23/114 N.27/83 N.14/26/1/129 P.15/31/0/76 N.0 P.1)
(06-Nyg 30-PHIL. 24 (OT)...N.24-23 P.30/107 N.26/86 P.27/45/0/344 N.31/43/1/318 N.0 P.1)
(06-Phil. 36-NYG 22...N.22-21 P.30/161 N.22/88 N.28/40/2/270 P.19/28/1/221 P.1 N.2)
(06-PHIL. 23-Nyg 20...P.19-17 P.31/185 N.31/151 N.16/27/1/154 P.17/31/0/138 P.0 N.0)
(07-GIA +2' 16-3; 06-Gia +3 30-24 (OT), Phil. +5' 36-22, PHI. -7 23-20 (P)...SR: NY 79-67-2)
***OVER THE TOTAL GREEN BAY 37 - Oakland 16?Early indications
are that the remarkable Brett Favre?s starting streak of 269 games (including
playoffs) is likely to continue despite last week?s right arm and left shoulder
injuries at Dallas. And CB Charles Woodson (former Raider) & DE Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila might return as well. The Raider run defense often vaporizes on
the road (198 ypg last 4!). If Ryan Grant (588 YR) gets it going in Lambeau,
Favre & WRs have a fun day. Pack 12-3-1 vs. spread last 16 games; 8-4 ?over? TY.
(03-Green Bay -5 41-7...SR: EVEN 5-5)
NEW ENGLAND 35 - Pittsburgh 27?When the Patriots reached 8-0 by
winning at Indianapolis, many pundits pointed to this week?s game as the
biggest hurdle on their way to a 16-0 regular season. But the Steelers, only 2-
3 SU on the road TY despite the league?s top-rated defense, have plenty to
prove in their own right. However, Philly?s 336 YP at N.E. show the Pats?
defense is vulnerable at times (which might why Bill Belichick appeared to be
?courting? Baltimore S Ed Reed last week for future free agency). Pittsburgh 12-
6 last 18 as dog. Pats ?over? 9 of first 11 TY (prior to Monday night in Baltimore).
(05-New England +3 23-20...SR: Pittsburgh 13-9)
***TENNESSEE 27 - San Diego 17?Are back-to-back wins over the
troubled Ravens & Chiefs an indicator that beleaguered Norv Turner finally has
San Diego back on track? Perhaps, especially since L.T. getting 25-30 touches
per game lately. But Philip Rivers (once coached at NC State by current Tenn.
o.c. Norm Chow) still blowing hot and cold, and Bolts? only success TY vs. a
winning team was its fluke-fest vs. Indy (Peyton six ints.!). Key DT Albert
Haynesworth back in action last week. And ex-Bear Justin Gage (22 catches
last 4 games) emerging as reliable target for Vince Young.
(06-S. DIEGO 40-Tenn. 7...S.26-14 S.37/241 T.19/55 S.25/36/0/235 T.13/38/2/163 S.0 T.0)
(06-SAN DIEGO -11 40-7...SR: San Diego 21-16-1)
CINCINNATI 24 - St. Louis 23?Improving Rams just one bobbled goal-line
snap vs. Seattle from being 4-0 SU last four games! Steven Jackson (354 YR,
16 recs.) close to his 2006 self in those four, with St. Louis scoring 24 ppg.
While Cincy potent on offense, injuries & flaws on defense have recently kept the
Bengals under .500 as a home favorite (7-9-1 L2+Ys). With Cincy?s playoff hopes
flickering none too brightly, wouldn?t count on host in this one.
(03-ST. LOUIS -7 27-10...SR: EVEN 5-5)
HOUSTON 23 - Tampa Bay 17?Buccaneers rule the NFC South, where
they?re 4-0 SU & vs. the spread. But they?re just 4-4 vs. the rest of the league.
And Houston?s young defenders (Mario Williams 8? sacks; Amobe Okoye 5)
rarely make things easy for foes. T.B. QB Luke McCown surprised New Orleans for 313 YR and 34 YR in his first start in three years. Sage Rosenfels
has proven to be a capable backup QB for Houston.
(2007 Preseason: Tampa Bay -3 beat Houston 31-24 at Tampa Bay)
(03-TAMPA BAY -11 16-3...SR: Tampa Bay 1-0)
SEATTLE 31 - Arizona 19?Cardinals, with the development of their top-notch
receiving corps, have become a righteous underdog (10-2-1) in recent years. But,
like most teams, they?ve had their problems (1-3 last 4) covering in noisy Seattle.
Don?t see Arizona (defense down 4 starters) keeping pace with Seattle now that
Shaun Alexander back, RB Maurice Morris improved, and WR Nate Burleson
helping at wideout and on returns. Hawks? attacking defense (MLB Lofa Tatupu 3
ints. last week!) setting up some easy scores. Series ?over? 6 of last 7.
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)
(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)
(07-ARIZONA +3 23-20; 06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, ARIZONA +3 27-21...SR: Arizona 9-
Minnesota 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13?Minnesota (6-6) back in thick of NFC
wild card chase. With Adrian Peterson back (116 YR and 2 TDs in romp past
Lions), o. c. Darrell Bevell can effectively pick spots for second-year QB T.
Jackson to look downfield. Rookie WR Sidney Rice (4 TDC) and WR/KR
Aundrae Allison (103-yard return last week; 2 for 52 receiving) joining with
Peterson & Jackson to provide Vikes (33 ppg last 3) with a promising young
nucleus. Meanwhile, S.F. returned to its customary ways at Carolina,
producing only 195 yards, with Trent Dilfer yielding 6 sacks & 4 picks.
(06-S. FRAN. 9-Minn. 3...M.17-8 M.33/135 S.26/42 M.21/31/1/103 S.13/21/1/91 S.0 M.2)
(06-SAN FRANCISCO +4 9-3...SR: San Francisco 22-19-1)
Cleveland 27 - NY JETS 20?Browns (3 giveaways) got sloppy with the ball
last week at Arizona. But they?re still the go-with team in this pairing, likely to
bring much more offense to bear, especially with the Jets? defense ranking way
down the list (which is ?held up? by Cleveland?s, of course). But Browns? young
offense (rebuilt OL has held together well) has the type receiver group (Braylon
Edwards now 12 TDC) that Jets are seeking. Will note that N.Y. won two as a
home dog in OT.
(06-CLE. 20-Jets 13...C.16-12 C.39/147 N.27/88 C.15/22/1/120 N.11/28/2/105 C.0 N.1)
(06-CLEVELAND -2 20-13...SR: Cleveland 12-7)
DENVER 19 - Kansas City 16?Denver has not been a worthy favorite TY (1-
6 in role), while K.C.?s offense (12 ppg last 4) has been besieged by backfield
injuries. Chiefs might get a boost if Larry Johnson (out the last 4 games; check
status) returns, even though rookie RB Kolby Smith (233 YR last 2 games)
hasn?t been the main problem. But Herm Edwards? defense still playing hard
and has revenge in mind. Broncs (3-11 vs. spread last 1+seasons at home)
can?t be trusted.
(07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(06-DENVER 9-K. City 6 (OT)...D.18-16 D.36/145 K.34/145 D.16/30/1/173 K.17/23/0/131 D.0 K.2)
(06-K. CITY 19-Denver 10...K.22-16 K.41/223 D.16/38 D.25/39/1/206 K.13/22/1/159 K.0 D.0)
(07-Denver +3 27-11; 06-DENVER -10' 9-6 (OT), KANSAS CITY -1' 19-10...SR: Kansas City 52-43)
*Indianapolis 31 - BALTIMORE 14?The wistful among the M&T Bank
Stadium faithful can be excused for looking at playoff-bound Indy and recalling
the glory days of Johnny Unitas & Co. when the Colts played in town. They?re
sure not going down memory lane with the current Ravens team that is
collectively past its sell-by date and had covered just once all year heading into
last Monday?s game vs. Patriots. Baltimore can no longer rely on its aging
defense (32 points or more 3 of last 4) to compensate for its woes on offense.
TV?NBC
(06-Indy 15-BALT. 6...I.15-13 I.35/100 B.20/83 I.15/30/2/161 B.18/29/2/161 I.0 B.2)
(06-Indianapolis +4 15-6 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 5-2)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 10
*New Orleans 23 - ATLANTA 13?N.O. (5-7) missed a chance last week to
win the game it had to win to get to .500, fumbling on a risky play near the 50 and
a 23-20 lead with less than four minutes to play. But the Saints have proven to
be a mentally-resilient team TY, with good leadership from coaches and QB
Brees. Meanwhile, fragile Falcons a risky proposition, with top three OTs lost
for the year and all losses by 6 points of more. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)
(07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16; 06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR:
Atlanta 44-33)
NBA KEY RELEASES
DETROIT by 17 over Chicago (Friday, December 7)
DENVER by 19 over Sacramento (Saturday, December
GOLDEN STATE by 7 over L.A. Lakers (Sunday, December 9)
KEY COLLEGE RELEASES
MISSOURI by 17 over Purdue (Sat., December 8 Day)
RHODE ISLAND by 2 over Syracuse (Sat., Dec.
CS NORTHRIDGE Plus over Gonzaga (Sat., Dec.
VILLANOVA by 17 over Temple (Sun., Dec. 9)
GOLD SHEET -CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF
11 *GREEN BAY over Oakland ***** I THINK THEY HAVE LOSY ONLY ONE 11* IN THE LAST 2 YEARS!!!!
Late Score Forecast:
*GREEN BAY 38 - OAKLAND 16
With early reports indicating Brett Favre will be ready to start after being felled at Dallas, and with other G.B. walking
wounded (including former Raider CB Charles Woodson) benefitting from extra time off, must lay the lumber.
Raiders don?t stop the run on the road (198 ypg the last 4), and RB Ryan Grant (588 YR; only four starts) a godsend
for G.B. G.B. has covered 12 of its last 16 games.
10 ST. LOUIS over *CINCINNATI
Late Score Forecast:
ST. LOUIS 27 - *Cincinnati 22
St. Louis won?t make the playoffs after its 0-8 start, but the Rams have regained their confidence with 3 wins in their
last 4 games, as RB Steven Jackson again healthy, setting up the Rams? explosive WRs. While Cincy still has scary
names on offense, CKO insiders report many in the Bengal locker room have become dispirited after the team?s
many disappointments TY.
TOTALS: UNDER (36) in the Miami-Buffalo game?Dolphins scoring 8 ppg their last 5; Bills play it ultra-conservative when rookie QB Trent Edwards is at
the controls...OVER (45) in the Arizona-Seattle game?Seattle defense setting up easy points for the offense; Cards? defense down four starters.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): DALLAS (-11?) at Detroit?Cowboys? healthy OL, attacking defense, and fine chemistry keep them rolling
despite the 10-day layoff from previous game.
CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 7-13, 2007
Friday,December 7
*GOLDEN STATE over Miami (NBA)...Golden State is on a 9-1 SU roll (8-2 vs. number) through Dec. 2. That streak closely coincides with the
return to action of G Stephen Jackson (21 ppg, 5 rpg & 4 apg in last 9 games). Also a factor is the emerging inside presence of 21-year-old
Latvian center Adris Biedrins, who?s contributing 11 ppg, 10 rpg and leads the team in blocks. Obviously, Miami wasn?t able to fill in around
Dwyane Wade in the offseason, and the further erosion of Shaquille O?Neal?s impact has been dramatic.
*GOLDEN STATE 113 - Miami 98 RATING - 10
Saturday,December 8
MARQUETTE over *Wisconsin (Day Game)...G-oriented Marquette at size disadvantage vs. Wisconsin. But veteran Warriors (all 5 starters
back) will effectively use their uptempo attack & aggressive defense, just as smaller, quicker Duke did in 82-58 home win vs. Badgers on Nov.
27. Marquette?s imperturbable sr. PG D. James (15 ppg, 3 apg, 42% treys) will score, dish & keep squad composed in hostile Kohl Center, while
Big East Defensive Player of Year, 6-3 sr. G McNeal (16 ppg, 4 apg), hounds Wiscy?s new go-to scorer, 6-1 soph G Hughes (18 ppg). Badgers
miss ?T&T Boys? (departed stars 6-7 F Tucker & G Taylor) in Warrior payback game. MARQUETTE 73 - *Wisconsin 60 RATING - 11
TEXAS over *Rice...Wrong place, wrong time scenario for Willis Wilson?s rebuilding Rice bunch that is having a hard time adjusting to life
without graduated sharpshooter Morris Almond (NBA 1st-round draftee). With Owls hitting only 34% from floor (and icy 28% beyond arc) and
suffering numerous one-sided beatings already, the last thing Rice needs is to face a roaring Texas squad that?s flying high after win at topranked
UCLA. Horns? firepower (85 ppg) and accuracy (54% from floor!) way too much for Owls to handle.
TEXAS 96 - *Rice 57 RATING - 10 (at Toyota Center)
BOSTON over *Chicago (NBA)...Intense Boston has cooled off a bit vs. the points, but Chicago has problems the Celtics will exploit. Bulls are
last in the league in scoring and are shooting horrendous 39.7% (also ranks last). Interestingly, Boston is playing the best defense in the
league, holding foes to 87 ppg & 40.5% (both league lows). Both teams played last night, but Chicago is 0-3 when unrested, while the Celtics
covered 3 of first 4 playing 2nd of back-to-back games. Celtics competence too much for struggling Bulls.
BOSTON 100 - *Chicago 82 RATING - 10
Sunday,December 9
*VIRGINIA TECH over George Washington (Day Game)...With rebuilding GW desperately looking for a creator on offense now that promising
soph PG T. King is out for year with knee injury, support athletic VT squad getting ever-improving play at that critical position from explosive,
speed-changing frosh PG Thorns (nearly 4 apg) & 6-3 combo G Delaney (8 ppg, 3 apg). And with prized 6-7 frosh F J. Allen (13 ppg, 7 rpg)
complementing vet Fs Vassallo (16 ppg, 44% from arc) & D. Washington (13 ppg, 6 rpg) to give Hokies their best forecourt since joining ACC
4 years ago, mistake-prone Colonials (40 TOs vs. last 2 major foes) fall in Blacksburg.
*VIRGINIA TECH 82 - George Washington 69 RATING - 11
Tuesday,December 11
*VALPARAISO over Evansville...E?ville?s 42-year-old rookie HC Marty Simmons (player & assistant under former HC Crews) unable so far to
replace 3 of the top 4 scorers from year ago, as poor-shooting 1-5 Aces (no DD scorer over 42% FGs) have managed only to eke out 51-50
win at Ball State. E?ville unlikely to make needed progress vs. seasoned, internationally-flavored, nicely-balanced Valpo (all 5 returning
starters between 9 & 12 ppg), which is already 2-0 SU & vs. spread TY in preconference revenge (W. Michigan & Ball State). Make that 3-0.
*VALPARAISO 84 - Evansville 59 RATING - 11
Wednesday,December 12
PRINCETON over *Penn State...No, Pete Carril hasn?t reappeared on Princeton bench. But disciple Sydney Johnson (?97 Ivy MVP) has Tigers
doing a pretty good ?Carril Ball? imitation in his first season as HC, with familiar pass-and-screen tactics controlling pace and allowing Princeton
to stay competitive vs. higher-regarded foes. And we?re not sure how highly to regard Penn State, which is laboring on offense (mere 40%
FGs & 30% 3s) with key F Cornley (bruised knee) in and out of lineup, putting too much scoring pressure on G Claxton.
PRINCETON 51 - *Penn State 50 RATING - 10
OHIO over *Maryland...With defensively-erratic Maryland (witness 85-76 upset loss vs. VCU Dec. 3) off revenge game vs. Boston College,
?take? with rugged Ohio (6th-year HC O?Shea says it?s his most physical unit), which has endured two last-second road losses (Temple &
Patriot League favorite Holy Cross). Ohio?s ball-swishing sr. G Walter (16 ppg, converts 3 treys pg) has eagerly moved to wing from point,
thanks to juco PG M. Allen (7 apg). And with Murray State transfer 6-7 F Orr (12 ppg) meshing with 6-8 sr. C Leon Williams (19 ppg, 10 rpg)
& 6-7 sr. F Tillman (19 ppg, 9 rpg), Bobcats spring upset vs. hot-and-cold Terps. OHIO 78 - *Maryland 77 RATING ? 10
WINNING POINTS
NFL
****BEST BET
Carolina over *Jacksonville by 10
There?s one thing the Panthers can do and that?s win away from home.
Carolina has knocked off Arizona,Atlanta,New Orleans and St. Louis on the
road this year.The Panthers are at their best as a road underdog, especially
in December where they have covered 13 of the past 15 times in this role.
Consequently, Jacksonville is at its worst laying a big price.The Jaguars have
been double-digit chalk four times during the last three years.They?ve failed
to cover every time, including laying 10 this season to the Falcons.
Jacksonville managed only to beat Atlanta, 13-7.The Jaguars are a conservative
team that wins playing good defense, running the ball and limiting mistakes.
That means taking few shots downfield.This philosophy fits their personnel,
but is not necessarily good for covering a large pointspread. The
Panthers are not devoid of talent. Julius Peppers is an elite defensive end.
Linebacker Jon Beason is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. Steve
Smith remains a dangerous playmaker. After fiddling around with totally
ineffective David Carr, Panthers coach John Fox fully realizes 44-year-old
Vinny Testaverde gives his team the best opportunity to win.The Panthers
had no confidence when the battered Carr was under center.They have a
much better attitude and downfield threat with Testaverde. Smith plays better.
So do running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. One reason
why the Panthers play better on the road is less pressure.The onus is
on Jacksonville. Don?t be surprised if the Jaguars don?t respond well this
week. Jacksonville played well at Indianapolis last Sunday, but still lost.That
defeat, in all probability, ended the Jaguars?AFC South Division title hopes.
The Jaguars have a key road tilt next week at Pittsburgh.This interconference
matchup isn?t big on their radar screen. CAROLINA 24-14.
***BEST BET
*Green Bay over Oakland by 27
The combination of Green Bay having four extra days to game-plan and get
healthy, the Raiders coming into cold weather and drawing an early start
time puts us in the Packers? corner. Brett Favre should be fine to start, but
even if he isn?t the Packers have enough to cover this spread with Aaron
Rodgers.The Raiders entered Week 13 with the worst run defense in the
league.The Packers are particularly tough when they can get their ground
attack going, which makes their play-action passes and frequent slant patterns
even more effective. The Raiders have a decent secondary, but not
nearly enough depth to cover Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie
James Jones. Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West teams this season.
Favre played his worst game of the season last Thursday against Dallas.
So did the Packers? defense. Some of this, of course,was because of Dallas,
the class of the NFC so far. But some also was injury-related.More than likely
the Packers will get back their two key defensive players that didn?t play
against the Cowboys, cornerback Charles Woodson and pass rusher Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Justin Fargas has been running well for the Raiders, but the
team still turns the ball over too much (26 giveaways) and commits too
many penalties to hang with an elite team like the Packers at such a tough
road venue. The Raiders? quarterback situation consists of Daunte
Culpepper,who isn?t 100 percent and still doesn?t have a full grasp of the
offense, perennial backup Josh McCown and rookie JaMarcus Russell, who
is just beginning to get his feet wet. The Packers are out for redemption
after a rare poor showing. They are a well-coached, fundamentally sound
team with plenty of big-play ability.The Raiders have yet to exhibit any of
these traits. GREEN BAY 37-10.
**PREFERRED
*Tennessee over San Diego by 10
The Chargers have seized control of the weak AFC West, but have yet to
establish a consistent passing attack and have covered just two of their last
eight away contests. Vince Young is the kind of quarterback San Diego?s
speed pass rushers can?t catch up to. Young?s passing is getting sharper
every week.The Titans have an inside-outside rushing tandem of LenDale
White and Chris Brown to keep the Chargers on their heels. Star defensive
lineman Albert Haynesworth returned last Sunday for Tennessee after missing
three games with a groin injury.The difference was amazing when he
wasn?t in the lineup.The Titans surrendered 97 points in the three games
Haynesworth missed. Their run defense is top-notch when Haynesworth
plays, which is crucial in bottling up LaDainian Tomlinson. Philip Rivers
isn?t enough of a playmaker to lead San Diego to a road victory unless he?s
getting a major contribution from Tomlinson. Flying from the West Coast to
Nashville for an early start time is a major negative for the Chargers.The last
time they had to do that was three weeks ago at Jacksonville and they were
flat in a 24-17 loss. The Titans also have a huge coaching edge with Jeff
Fisher going against Norv Turner.TENNESSEE 20-10.
*San Francisco over Minnesota by 4
Unlike most seasons, there is more of a gap in the NFL this season between
the haves and the have-nots.The 49ers definitely are a have-not.They?ve lost
nine of their past 10 games. Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards once this
season. San Francisco has broken the 20-point barrier only one time. But
the Vikings are not a ?have? team yet.Yes, they have won four of their past
five. Adrian Peterson is a dominating running back. Even Tarvaris Jackson
has picked up his play, completing 45-of-58 passes for 504 yards and three
touchdowns during the past three games. However, Minnesota is traveling
to the West Coast in the rare spot of being a road favorite.The game is on
grass. The Vikings are used to playing indoors on carpet. Their pass rush
isn?t going to be as effective because of this. The Vikings, under Brad
Childress, aren?t used to playing under this kind of pressure.They are shooting
for a wild-card spot and expected to win. It?s a division sandwich, too,
for Minnesota.The Vikings just hosted the Lions and are home to the Bears
the following Sunday.The 49ers have nothing to lose.They can play loose.
Veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer has decent receiving targets.The Vikings
went into last week ranked last in pass defense. SAN FRANCISCO 21-17.
NBA
Friday, December 7
***BEST BET
Indiana over *Orlando by 4
Indiana should be dialed-in to this matchup having had three days to prepare and then
off for another four days. Mike Dunleavy and Marquis Daniels are playing well. This
is Orlando?s first game back from a five-game West Coast trip so it could come out flat.
INDIANA 114-110.
***BEST BET
Toronto over *Boston by 3
The Raptors nearly upset Boston in their third game of the season, losing in overtime
as a short home favorite. The Celtics had trouble matching up against the quickness
of point guard T.J. Ford, who had 32 points. Chris Bosh had 19 points and 10 boards
for the Raptors and wasn?t 100 percent back then. Bosh (check status) should be recovered
from his recent groin injury. TORONTO 104-101.
***BEST BET
*Golden State over Miami by 11
The Warriors can run the tired and old Heat out of the gym. The Heat are playing
their second road game in two nights after opening a West Coast road swing in the high altitude of Utah on Monday. Monta Ellis is heating up and so are the Warriors.
Golden State was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS heading into December. GOLDEN STATE
116-105.
Saturday, December 8
***BEST BET
*Minnesota over Phoenix by 1
The Suns have a convenient excuse for overlooking the Timberwolves since this is their
final game of a five-game road trip. They may very well take the Timberwolves too
lightly. It?s Phoenix?s fourth game in five nights. Phoenix?s weakness is its weak bench.
The Timberwolves won?t be home again until Friday. They have three days off after
this matchup so the focus should be there. Al Jefferson provides scoring punch inside
and could get foul-prone Amare Stoudamire in foul trouble. MINNESOTA 114-113.
Sunday, December 9
***BEST BET
New Jersey over *Washington by 7
The Nets have owned the Wizards defeating them six consecutive times. Jason Kidd
could post another triple-down operating against Wizards? second-string point guard
Antonio Daniels. Richard Jefferson is having an All-Star type of first half for New
Jersey and Vince Carter is getting his shot back. Washington ranked just 24th in
defense. NEW JERSEY 112-105.
COLLEGE HOOPS:
Saturday, December 8
***BEST BET
Kansas* over DePaul by 24
After Jerry Wainwright?s lousy-shooting DePaul team beat Kansas 64-57 in Chicago
last season (right after Kansas had beaten Florida), Jayhawks? coach Self said, ?We
couldn?t play good defense without fouling.? Translation: ?We got hosed.? DePaul
guard Draelon Burns shot 8-for-8 from three-point range in DePaul?s last game, which
will seem like an eternity ago when he has trouble making the range in this building
against this opponent. Wainwright is committed to an up-tempo change this season
and says the worst thing to do would be to put on the brakes. Which would seem to
indicate mistakes forthcoming at a rapid pace. KANSAS, 89-65.
***BEST BET
Ohio* over Delaware by 31
Balanced Bobcats scoring and the ability to spread the floor with good outside shooting
range will make it very hard for scoring-challenged Delaware to hang in there.
What little air had been in this program went out of it two or three seasons ago and if
they are not getting steals, they?re not gonna be putting points on the board and even
then, they?re 50-50 to make an uncontested layup. Four Delaware players recently
played 32 to 39 minutes in a loss at Iona (2-27 SU in 2006-07). "There's a level of
excitement about the team because we have new players and transfers becoming eligible
December 16," coach Monte Ross said recently. A check of the calendar reveals the
shocking truth: that?s eight days from today. OHIO, 95-64.
***BEST BET
Rhode Island over Syracuse* by 10
It?s so nice to have national TV commentators dishing out the superlatives about
Syracuse?s untested freshmen and sophomore guards as if they were Pearl Washington
assists. Our EXECUTIVE decision-makers used that edge for a 5-STAR winner with
UMass +7.5 vs. Boeheim?s NIT Orange Blossoms last week, and this Rhode Island
team is deeper into its running sets than Massachusetts was. When four of your guys
score 20 on your home floor and you still lose, you obviously have some work to do.
If he no longer wants to play zone, then he?ll be out-rebounded and out-breaked with
trigger-muscle from Rhodie?s upperclassmen muscle Daniels, Seawright and Mbang.
RHODE ISLAND, 85-75.
