SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Cleveland (7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS) at (1) Boston (7-6, 5-8 ATS)
For the second time in two weeks, the top-seeded Celtics will try to fend off elimination in a Game 7 on their home floor when they battle the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers in a win-or-go-home showdown at the TD Banknorth Garden.
Cleveland prolonged its season for at least one more game with Friday?s ugly 74-69 victory at home, cashing as a three-point chalk as the home team remained perfect in this series. LeBron James had 32 points, 12 rebounds and six assists for the Cavs, who shot just 33 percent from the field but had a 45-37 edge on the boards, including 16-7 on the offensive glass.
While the home team has won all six games in this series, the host is 4-2 ATS, with the Celtics going 1-2 ATS in Boston. In fact, Cleveland has covered the number in five of the six battles, including the last four in a row. Meanwhile, going back to their opening-round, seven-game series against the Hawks, the Celtics are mired in a 4-8 ATS slump.
The teams have now split their 10 meetings this year, with the host winning all 10 and Cleveland going 8-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in Boston. Finally, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five after the underdog had been on an 8-0-1 ATS tear in this rivalry.
Both squads have contributed to a staggering overall statistic in the second round of this year?s playoffs: The home team is an eye-popping 21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS, with Detroit and Los Angeles ? the only teams so far to have advanced to the conference finals ? the only teams to post a road win.
The Celtics have history on their side in this one, as they?re 28-0 SU all-time in the postseason when they have had a 3-2 series lead. They?re also 15-3 SU all-time in Game 7s.
Doc Rivers? Celtics are 7-0 on their home floor in the postseason (5-2 ATS), and going back to the regular season they?ve cashed in 11 of their last 13 at the Garden (the only two non-covers coming against the Cavs in Games 1 and 5 of this series. Boston is also 5-1 ATS in its last six on Sundays and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after being held to less than 75 points in its previous game. On the downside, the C?s are in the midst of ATS downturns of 1-5 on one day of rest and 1-8 in conference semifinal games.
Although the Cavs have gotten the money in their last two games, they?re still just 8-17 in their last 25 after a spread-cover. They?re also just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 contests after posting less than 75 points in their previous game. On the bright side, Mike Brown?s squad is on pointspread streaks of 4-0 when going on one day of rest and 4-1 on the highway.
Friday?s game never came close to touching the 179-point posted total, making the under 4-2 in this series (2-1 in Boston). Also, for the Celtics, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 8-3 at home, 16-6 against the Central Division, 4-0 on Sundays, 4-1 after a non-cover and 11-3 against teams with a losing road record. For Cleveland, the under is on a bevy of streaks, including 13-5 overall, 14-3 in conference semis, 13-5 on one day of rest, 8-2 against the Atlantic Division and 47-23 on Sundays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (22-20) at L.A. Angels (25-20)
Derek Lowe (2-3, 4.62 ERA) tries to notch his first quality start in more than a month when he leads the Dodgers against the Angels? Jered Weaver (2-5, 4.86) in the rubber match of this three-game Freeway Series at Angel Stadium.
The Angels won Friday?s series-opener 4-2, but the Dodgers came back on Saturday and posted a 6-3 upset victory, snapping a six-game losing streak to their regional rivals. The Dodgers are stil just 3-6 in their last nine, which comes on the heels of a 10-1 hot streak. Additionally, they?re mired in slumps of 1-4 on Sundays, 2-5 against right-handed starters and 2-5 against winning teams.
The Angels are just 3-7 in their last 10 contests, but they?re 5-3 in their last eight at home and 15-7 in Weaver?s last 22 home starts.
Despite Saturday?s defeat, the Halos are still 8-2 in the last 10 meetings against the Dodgers, with all eight being multi-run victories. Also, Mike Scioscia?s club has won 18 of the last 24 battles in Anaheim, including the last six of the last seven. Finally, when it comes to interleague play, the Angels have shined, going 21-9 in their last 30 overall and 11-2 in their last 13 versus the N.L. at home, while the Dodgers have floundered against the A.L., posting negative Interleague runs of 18-35 overall and 5-24 on the road. Joe Torre?s club is also just 11-25 in its last 36 against the A.L. West.
Lowe gave up four runs on six hits in six innings on Wednesday in Milwaukee, but his team rallied in the ninth inning for a 6-4 victory, getting the veteran right-hander off the hook. Still, Lowe is 0-2 with an 8.27 ERA over his last three starts, and he?s gone six straight outings without a quality start (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs allowed or less).
Lowe is 0-2 with a 5.47 ERA in five road starts, with the Dodgers averaging just 3.8 runs per game in those contests. Against the Angels in his career, he?s 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 27 appearances (11 starts), and he?s allowed three earned runs or fewer while pitching at least seven innings in each of the last six against the Halos.
Weaver bounced back from his worst start of the season ? a 9-4 loss in Kansas City in which he gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings ? and dominated the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing just a single hit and two walks in seven scoreless innings, winning 2-0. With that effort, Weaver improved to 1-2 with a 2.00 ERA in four home starts. However, the Angels are just 3-6 in the right-hander?s nine trips to the hill in 2008.
Weaver?s only two starts against the Dodgers came last year, and he was brilliant in both, giving up a combined two runs on nine hits in 12 innings, winning 6-2 at home and 3-0 on the road.
The under is 7-0-1 in Lowe?s last eight starts against the Angels (3-0 in Anaheim), 5-0-1 in his last six against the A.L. West and 4-0 in his last four interleague outings. Meanwhile, the under is 6-3 in Weaver?s nine starts this season, including 4-0 at home.
The under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these rivals overall (2-0 this weekend), 9-2-1 in the last 12 clashes at Angel Stadium, 5-0 in the Angels? last five overall, 5-0 in the Angels? last five at home 11-2 in the Dodgers? last 13 on Sundays and 37-17-3 in the Dodgers? last 56 interleague road contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
N.Y. Mets (20-19) at N.Y. Yankees (20-22)
The Yankees hand the ball to ace Chien-Ming Wang (6-1, 2.90) as they conclude this truncated Subway Series against the Mets, who are set to go with lefty Oliver Perez (3-3, 4.61) in a nationally televised contest.
After Friday?s game was rained out, the Mets came out Saturday and outslugged the Yankees 7-4, snapping a two-game losing skid. The Mets are still mired in slumps of 11-26 in interleague road games, 2-5 as a road ?dog and 2-5 against A.L. teams with losing records.
The Yanks have now dropped seven of their last 10, including losing four of their last five. Joe Giradi?s club is on further slides of 2-9 as a favorite, 1-6 vs. lefties, 1-6 in interleague games and 2-6 as a home favorite. On the flip side, they?re on positive runs of 23-6 against N.L. southpaws, 47-15 in interleague home games, 14-7 at home against teams with a losing record and 20-6 on Sundays.
These two teams split their two series in 2007, with each winning three games and each taking one contest on the road. In fact, over the last three years, the Mets hold a slim 10-9 edge, with the home team going 10-9 during this stretch. However, the Yankees are still 18-8 in the last 26 head-to-head clashes in the Bronx.
Wang has been spectacular for the Yankees this year, recording a quality start ? at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed ? in eight of his nine outings. However, after going 7-0 in Wang?s first seven starts, the Yankees have lost his last two to the Indians at home (3-0) and the Rays on the road (2-1).
Wang is 3-1 with a 4.20 ERA in five home starts, but if you take away his one poor outing this year (eight runs in four innings at home against Boston), his home ERA shrinks to 1.93. Also, in his only career start against the Mets last year, he went 8 2/3 innings, yielding two runs on six hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in an 8-2 home win.
Perez snapped a three-game losing skid in his most recent outing a week ago today at home against the Reds, giving up three runs on three hits in six innings en route to an 8-3 victory. He?s 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four road starts, and the Mets are 8-3 in his last 11 on the highway.
Perez dominated the Yankees twice last year, giving up two runs and 10 hits in 15 total innings, winning 3-2 at Yankee Stadium and 2-0 at home. He walked five and whiffed 11 in those two contests.
The under is 7-2 in Wang?s nine starts this year, including 4-0 in the last four and 4-1 at home. Conversely, the over is 3-1 in Perez?s last four starts overall and 4-0 in his last four Sunday outings.
In this Subway Series, the over is on streaks of 12-5 overall and 9-2 at Yankee Stadium. Also, the ?over? trends run heavy for the Mets, including 7-3 overall, 5-1 in interleague road games, 9-3 against losing teams and 19-6 on the highway against losing teams. The under, though, is 11-5-1 in the Mets? last 17 interleague games against losing teams. For the Yankees, the under is on streaks of 40-11-1 overall, 5-1 in the Bronx, 8-3 in interleague play against winning teams and 13-6 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
