SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (27-17) at Houston (25-20)
The red-hot Cubs send left-hander Ted Lilly (4-4, 5.33 ERA) to the mound at Minute Maid Park to face the Astros and starter Brian Moehler (1-0, 4.58) in the opener of this three-game series.
Chicago posted a 4-3 win over the Pirates on Sunday to finish a 10-game homestand with an 8-2 mark. However, Lou Pineilla?s club is just 8-9 on the highway this year, including 2-5 in the last seven.
Houston avoided the weekend sweep against in-state rival Texas with Sunday?s 5-4 win. The Astros went 7-3 on its 10-game road trip and now return home, where they?re 11-6 this season.
The Cubs beat the Astros two of three earlier this season and have won six of the last eight matchups with their division rivals. The host is 12-4 in the last 16 series clashes.
The Cubs have won each of Lilly?s last three starts and only once in his last five starts has he allowed more than three runs. That came in his most recent start against San Diego on Wednesday, when Lilly yielded four runs on six hits in six innings, but still won 8-5 at home.
For his career, Lilly is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts against Houston. He saw them twice last season and allowed a combined four runs on 10 hits in 14 innings as the squads split the two games. Finally, the Cubs are 4-1 when Lilly opens a series, but just 2-5 in his last seven on the highway.
Moehler?s made his first two starts as an Astro on the team?s just-concluded trip and allowed a combined three runs on 13 hits over 10 innings, leading Houston to wins in Los Angeles (7-1) and San Francisco (6-3). Last time he saw the Cubs was in 2006 as a starter for the Marlins and he held them to three runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 9-3 victory. For his career, Moehler is 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA against the Cubs in 23 innings of work.
Chicago is 5-2 on Mondays but just 2-6 in its last eight on the road against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Astros are 8-1 in their last nine at home, 5-1 in their last six against southpaws and 52-25 in their last 77 at home against southpaw starters.
In head-to-head battles between these rivals, the under is on streaks of 18-6-1 overall and 16-5 at Minute Maid Park. For the Cubs, the under is 43-17-4 in their last 64 on the road and 20-6-3 in their last 29 on the road against right-handed starters. Finally, the Astros have topped the total in seven of their last nine at home, but the under is 5-2 in their last seven against N.L. Central foes, 7-3 in their last 10 on Mondays and 9-4 in their last 13 at home against southpaws.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (25-19) at Oakland (24-21)
The streaking Rays head west to take on the A?s at McAfee Coliseum, with James Shields (4-3, 3.05 ERA) ready to toe the rubber against Oakland?s Joe Blanton (2-6, 3.69) in a battle of aces.
Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 11, but comes into this one after a pair of tough late-inning losses in St. Louis, falling 9-8 in 10 innings on Saturday and 5-4 on Sunday, when the Cardinals scored all five runs in the last four innings.
Oakland is back home after a disastrous nine-game road trip that saw them go 2-7, including Sunday?s 5-2 loss in Atlanta. On the bright side, the A?s have won nine of their last 12 at home, including the last four in a row.
The Rays took six of 10 against the A?s last season, including the last three in a row (all at home). However, they are just 5-24 in their last 29 visits to Oakland and 24-56 in the last 80 series clashes.
Shields has been outstanding in four of his last five outings, giving up a total of four earned runs in 32 1/3 innings over those four starts. His other start was a disaster in Boston, where he gave up seven runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 12-4 loss on May 3. That defeat at Fenway Park dropped Shields to 1-2 on the road with a 6.10 ERA.
Shields beat the A?s twice last season, giving up a combined three runs on 13 hits in 16 1/3 innings, winning 12-2 at home and 4-1 in Oakland. For his career, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA against the A?s, allowing nine runs (all earned) in 20 innings. The Rays are 6-1 in Shields? last seven starts against A.L. West competition and 6-2 in his last eight against teams with a winning record, but just 7-19 in his past 26 road outings and 1-10 in his last 11 on the road against winning teams.
Blanton has struggled in front of the home fans, going 0-5 with a 3.66 ERA in seven starts. However, he has allowed an identical two earned runs in each of his last four outings, including Wednesday when he surrendered two runs on four hits in seven innings of a 2-0 loss in Cleveland.
For his career, Blanton is 2-3 with a 6.06 ERA in seven starts against the Rays. In August last season he gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings of a 14-3 road loss. The A?s are 9-4 in Blanton?s last 13 when facing a winning team, but 3-9 in his last 12 overall, 1-4 in his last five against the A.L. East and 1-6 at home this year.
Tampa Bay is on runs of 4-0 against the A.L. West but 29-75 on the road against right-handed starters and 41-96 in their last 137 away from Tampa. Oakland is in the midst of streaks of 4-0 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. East, 4-1 on Mondays and 6-2 at home against righties, but just 1-4 in the last five in Game 1 of a series.
The over is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head matchups, but the under is 6-1-2 in the last nine in Oakland. The over is 10-4 in the Rays? first game of a series, 5-2-1 on the road against right-handers and 6-2-1 on the highway overall. For the A?s, the under is on runs of 5-0 in a series opener, 6-2-1 against the A.L. East and 4-1-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(3) San Antonio (7-4, 5-5-1 ATS) at (2) New Orleans (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
After three days off, this best-of-7 semifinal finally plays the do-or-die Game 7 when the defending champion Spurs head to the Big Easy to take on the upstart Hornets inside New Orleans Arena.
San Antonio forced this decisive contest with Thursday?s 99-80 victory in Game 6, easily cashing as a seven-point home chalk. The Spurs shot 49.4 percent from the floor and Manu Ginobili hit six 3-pointers en route to a 25-point night, while Tim Duncan added 20 points and 15 rebounds.
The home team, just like the semifinals in both conferences, has dominated this series, as each squad is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in its building. Not only that, but all six contests have been double-digit routs with an average margin of victory of exactly 18 points per game. In fact, nine of the 10 battles this season have been double-digit blowouts, with the lone exception being San Antonio?s nine-point home win in late February.
The overall season series is now tied 5-5. And since the visitor won the first two clashes in the regular season, the home team has taken the last eight both SU and ATS. Also, the straight-up winner is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head contests, including 10-0 ATS this year. Finally, the favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, with the chalk cashing in all six in this playoff series.
Byron Scott?s Hornets sport a bunch of positive ATS trends, including 44-22-1 overall, 37-15-1 after a SU loss, 20-7-1 as a favorite, 9-0-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 22-7 as a home favorite, 8-1 as a playoff favorite and 6-2 after three or more days off. On the downside, New Orleans is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 conference semifinal games.
Gregg Popovich?s Spurs really enjoy having some extra rest, going 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after having three or more days off. However, the rest of San Antonio?s ATS numbers are all negative, including: 1-8 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog (all on the road), 0-5 as a playoff underdog of less than five points (0-3 in this series in that role) and 3-14 as an underdog of less than five points.
The over was 2-0-1 in the first three games of this series, but the last three have stayed under the total, including Thursday?s contest falling five points short of the 184-point line. The under is also 10-4-1 in San Antonio?s last 15 as an underdog of less than five points, 18-8-1 in its last 27 against Southwest Division foes and 6-1-1 in the Spurs? last eight after have three or more days off.
Conversely, for New Orleans, the over is on runs of 8-3-1 in the conference semifinals, 5-2-1 as a favorite, 10-2-1 coming off a double-digit defeat and 18-8-3 as a home favorite. For the Spurs, the over is on streaks 9-4-1 with them as a ?dog, 7-2 following an ATS win, 11-4-1 as a playoff ?dog of up to 4? points, 4-2-1 on the road and 13-7-1 in the conference semifinals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
