BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER villanova/marquette
Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/25/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA and Marquette to finish UNDER the number. Both teams bring some momentum into this evening's game largely due to their excellent defensive play. The Golden Eagles come off four straight SU/ATS victories, allowing an average of just 57.5 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have won three in a row, going 4-0 against the number. Prior to the recent streak, Villanova had been a disappointment in Big East play. The difference lately has been on the defensive side of the ball. Indeed, the Wildcats held the Huskies to 65 points on Saturday and also held each of their previous three opponents to 56 points or less. Holding West Virginia to 56, including just 21 in the first half, was particularly impressive as the Mountaineers had averaged 85 points over their previous two games. The whole team has clearly been buying into Jay Wright's message about playing tough defense. As junior forward Dwayne Anderson had to say: "Every guy on the floor is committed to defense, and that's what's really changing everything around for us." Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 6-0 their last six games. Villanova has seen the UNDER go 5-1 on the season when coming off a conference win while Marquette has seen the UNDER go 6-3 in that situation and 3-1 when playing a game (with a total) with one or less day's rest. The Golden Eagles are currently listed as very slight favorites. That's worth noting as Villanova has seen the UNDER go 5-0 when listed as an underdog this season and a profitable 14-2 in that situation, including a 3-0 mark when listed as a home underdog (or pick'em) of three points or less. These teams stayed below the total by double-digits when they faced each other here most recently, in February of 2006. I'm expecting tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 8-2 in Villanova's last 10 home games. *TV Total of the Week
VILLANOVA
Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/25/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Villanova Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Two weeks ago, the Wildcats suffered a heart-breaking loss at Georgetown. Tied with less than a second left, Corey Stokes was called for a foul away from the basket, and the Hoyas knocked down the free throws to win the game. A victory at Georgetown would have done wonders for a team "on the bubble," as the Wildcats are. However, the loss was a killer. Off that devastating defeat, it would have been easy for a still relatively young Villanova squad to hang its head. That's not what happened though. The Wildcats went out and dominated back to back opponents (18 point win at St. John's and a 22 point win vs. West Virginia) before defeating the red hot Connecticut Huskies here on Saturday. They're playing at their best right now and I expect them to carry that momentum into this evening's extremely important contest. Of course, the Golden Eagles are also playing very well, with four straight blowout victories of their own. All four of those games came against teams which are currently 500 or worse in conference play though (combined 19-38) including the two road games which came at Seton Hall and St John's. When stepping up to face the Big East's better teams on the road, the Golden Eagles have lost at Notre Dame, Connecticut, Louisville and West Virginia. The fact is that it's hard to win on the road in the Big East, particularly against the league's better teams. Louisville managed to do so (barely) yesterday but they were the only team to do so over the weekend. The home team was a perfect 8-0 in the other eight Big East games from Thursday through Sunday. Note that Marquette guard Dominic James, one of four players to average double-digits and the team-leader in assists, got hurt last game when the huge Rutgers center rolled over on his leg. He's expected to play but can't necessarily be expected to be 100%. The Wildcats, currently listed as very slight underdogs, are a solid 9-4 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Look for them to improve on those numbers here.
NBA
UNDER bulls/mavs
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 2/25/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mavericks and Bulls to finish UNDER the total. Including a 110-97 loss to Houston last night, the Bulls have now been involved in three straight high-scoring games. I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. For starters, they've seen the UNDER go 12-8 the last 20 times that they were playing the second of back to back games. They've also seen the UNDER go an impressive 18-7 the past three seasons after having played three straight games which finished above the total. That includes a 4-1 mark when they've been in that situation this season. The Bulls will be facing a Dallas team which has held back to back opponents to just 83 points and which has seen the UNDER go 10-4 its last 14 games, including a 6-1 mark its last seven against teams with a record below 500. The Mavs have been especially stingy at home of late. In their last game here they held Portland to just 76 points and in their previous game here they allowed only 81. Both those games fell below the number by double-digits, bringing the UNDER to 9-4 the last 13 games on this floor. Note that the Mavericks have also seen the UNDER go 14-8-1 in their "non-conference" games this season. They've held 11 of their last 12 guests to double-digits in scoring and the last time they played a home game after playing the previous day (12/27) they combined with the Cavs for only 169 points. With both teams still adjusting to new faces in the lineup and both playing their second game in two nights, I look for tonight's game to be lower scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip
